Despite the feeling that there's a bit of momentum behind Labour at GB level, they haven't made any further progress since Saturday according to the latest YouGov poll, and part of the reason is that their showing in the Scottish subsample is utterly abysmal.
Britain-wide YouGov poll:
Conservatives 42% (-1)
Labour 33% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 12% (-1)
SNP 5% (+1)
Brexit Party 4% (+2)
Greens 4% (+1)
Scottish subsample: SNP 52%, Conservatives 25%, Labour 11%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Greens 4%
In fairness, Labour were on an unusually high 21% in the previous subsample, so this is probably just sampling variation at play and the truth may be somewhere in between the two extremes. But it certainly offers some reassurance against the idea that Labour might be starting to creep back up to the sort of level of support in Scotland where they could become a problem for the SNP.
The 9-point Tory lead will have to drop to around 6 or 7 points over the next nine days if a hung parliament is to become a serious possibility. Such a small shift is obviously achievable - but what concerns me is that the polls may be overestimating Labour this time. The numbers are weighted to how people voted in 2017, when there was unusually high turnout of Labour voters. If that isn't replicated, Corbyn could be in an even weaker position than we currently think.
The good news, though, is that the opposite is true for the SNP - they didn't turn out their voters in sufficient numbers two years ago, which means 2017 weighting could be slightly underestimating their potential support.
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Since my last post I've had four more constituency previews in The National - Gordon, Glasgow East, Glasgow North and Central Ayrshire.
Just to compliment you on the constituency profiles: really informative, balanced and useful. Thank you.
ReplyDeleteDitto from me. Thanks.
DeleteThe UK ICM the other day had the SNP unusually high; actually up on 2017, which is very weird for them.
ReplyDeleteWhile 33% Lab UK-wide firms up their rapid progress to around that value over the past week, they need to be getting some more 35%'s and even an 36% asap to continue the current 'surge'.
ReplyDeleteKanatar just showed a 12 pt lead for Con, but remember Kantar very heavily down weight Labour 2017 voters for a reason I don't understand. This means their final sample has way too many Tory 2017 voters in it:
43(+1)% Con / 35(-5)% Lab; 6 points added to the 2017 lead in the weighted base. This will mean they could well be significantly overestimating the Tory lead.
I honestly think there is a firming up of the SNP vote .It's not at 2015 levels but vote on the doors but SNP vote seems more enthused and committed than 2017 .I got good feeling SNP going to do well ,but I'm still fearful of a last minute Labour surge .
ReplyDeleteInside every yellow Jock Nat si is a blue Tory waiting to get out. Wake up you silly former pretend Labour socialists that joined the Nat sis. Vote Labour. Remember your working class that you abandoned for the middle class Nat sis.
ReplyDeleteThe last Labour MPs and MSPs I had were both millionaires hardly working class
DeleteI’ll return to Labour once we’re independent
ReplyDeleteI too used to say I'd consider voting Labour once we're independent.
DeleteBut not now. They've burned their boats with their willingness to put working people through sheer hell just to save their precious Union.
Hell mend them.
Return to Labour once we're independent?
DeleteWill they suddenly change and become honest?
Will they admit they helped the Tories rob Scotland for years?
Will they give back the cash in brown envelopes they stole?
So you'll vote for a name and a red rosette just like you did before?
Labour have not changed in my lifetime and I'm over 70 years old
Just because you were not happy with a few Labour MPs should not mean you turn to the two Tory parties or the Libs. You have given up the class struggle and being over seventy is no excuse.
DeleteLabour prioritise decades of English Eton Tory Rule above socialism. That and produce mugs with catchy logs about how much they hate my non-British wife.
DeleteYou do have a vivid imagination. The British landed in their tens of thousands on the Normandy beaches to free the Frogs from the Nazis. Now you want Scotland to be economically dominated by the Frog/Herman alliance.
DeleteThe last week had me nervous we were going back to 2017, with subsamples showing the Tories in the high twenties, the SNP in the low forties, and Labour creeping back up. So this subsample is at least some better news.
ReplyDeleteAssuming that these figures are right:
ReplyDeleteSNP 52%
Con 25%
Lab 11%
Lib 7%
Green 4%
Electoral calculus spits out the following:
SNP 54 aeats
Con 3 seats
Lab 1 seat
Lib 1 seat, and sadly no green seats.
I have a feeling that, absent a highly unlikely disaster, that that might well be in or about the final Scottish result.
That is a fairly useful direction of travel for us to be taking, is it not?
I wouldn't take it too seriously since it is a subsample - and only one subsample at that. But amusingly, the one seat Electoral Calculus project SLab would hold onto on those numbers is Kirkcaldy, and that's just because the SNP man was deselected. Edinburgh South would fall.
DeleteWhich is of course unlikely to the point of absurd, even on an exceptional night for the SNP. But never mind.
The reason Electoral Calculus is showing that Labour would hold onto Kirkcaldy is that they have changed their programme for that to be the result even if the SNP would get 99% of the vote throughout Scotland.
DeleteHere's a wee something to factor in!
ReplyDeleteIf you check out the weather forecast for the 12th here: https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain?rain,2019-12-12-18,55.951,-3.197,5,i:pressure it could have a bearing on the outcome in Scotland anyway.