Scottish voting intentions for general election (Ipsos-Mori):
Conservatives 26%
Labour 16%
Liberal Democrats 11%
Greens 2%
Seat projection: SNP 48 (+13), Conservatives 6 (-7), Liberal Democrats 4 (n/c), Labour 1 (-6)
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 50%
No 50%
The seat projection is obviously markedly better for the SNP, and worse for the Tories, than we saw from the YouGov model last night. So which is likely to be closer to the truth? The YouGov projection is more sophisticated, because it takes account of different trends in different areas - for example that there may be more of a swing against the Tories in Remain-friendly East Renfrewshire than in Leave-friendly Banff & Buchan. By contrast, the projection from the Ipsos-Mori poll is very crude and based on assumptions of a uniform swing. But the fundamental reason why the SNP would get more seats if Ipsos-Mori are right is that the poll shows the party with a higher share of the vote than YouGov detected. If it was possible to run a subtler projection model based on Ipsos-Mori's figures, you'd probably still see the SNP gaining more Tory seats than YouGov predicted.
So it really just boils down to whether you think Ipsos-Mori or YouGov are estimating the vote shares of each party more accurately. There was a time when we'd have assumed that Ipsos-Mori's data collection method by telephone was bound to produce more accurate results than YouGov's online approach, but what happened in the EU referendum raised a few question marks over that.
Incidentally, the fieldwork dates don't explain the difference - the Ipsos-Mori poll was conducted over roughly the same period as the fieldwork for the YouGov model.
More to follow...
I have four more constituency previews in today's edition of The National - this time it's East Lothian, Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill, Glasgow South and Glasgow Central.
To the 4% who are Yes but not voting SNP or Green, are you sure...?
ReplyDeleteCan't put any 'science' to it but from a large number of door to door contacts , in a not particularly pro SNP area, this one just 'feels' nearer the mark. Keep on pushing every SNP vote gained is a step forward.
ReplyDeleteThat's my gut reaction too but I'm in the SNP citadel of Glasgow's southside .How times have changed .
DeleteI just feel unlike 2017 the SNP vote seems more solid
Just to point out the 50/50 split on indy EXCLUDES 16 &17 year olds.
ReplyDeleteI would expect YES to be a couple of points up, if the referendum demographic was in play, here.
This poll is a lot of shyte, yes is well over 60%.
ReplyDeleteThis telephone poll is only there as independence minded folks will think well it saves me going out in the snow and rain to vote, its con
Yes over 60%?
DeleteI stay in Inverness and honestly, it feels like that it could be that here. I went to see family in Orkney - it really really really didn't feel like that there.
None of know everybody in Scotland, we only know our little cluster of friends and acquaintances - that's why we need properly weighted polls. Which if this is, with IND 50/50 with 16/17 yr olds not included, I'd take.
A good poll. It's not actually way off what YouGov were suggesting in their MRP model except with the SNP about 3 points higher with Labour 2 points lower and the Tories 1 point lower. Much healthier for the SNP than Panelbase.
ReplyDeleteThe 44% share is the highest the SNP have registered in a poll since before the 2017 GE.
Sigh it's the same old crap that comes out when the establishment panics. This is all about getting the BritNat base out - scaring the loyal jocks and galvanising them to turn out on polling day. They did exactly the same in 2014. You know - the 50+% YES vote that had everyone excited? Just a ploy to get their upport out on the day.
ReplyDeleteOldest trick in the book. :)
My feeling is this is over optimistic for the SNP. There is still a lot of disgruntlement among Yes/Leavers like myself - a large minority of the pro-Indy coalition. Pollsters underestimated how many of this group would stay at home in 2017, and I suspect they are doing the same today.
ReplyDeletePlenty want Brexit done before the next Indyref. The SNP’s ultra-Remainer approach leaves them cold.
Nobody knows 100% what Brexit will bring; it has actually happened yet.
DeleteHowever, if we are independent and in the EU, and after a couple of years Brexit is clearly working for England; we'd also leave the EU - the template is in place, people would see it's working for them and we (and other countries no doubt) would follow their path.
If on the other hand, we're independent and Brexit is a nightmare for England, we stay as we are (in the EU) and save ourselves the problems they'd be going through.
However, to be able to make the choice, we have to be independent (and in the EU), so while I honestly respect your position, since none of us 100% know what Brexit's going to do to us - we can only guess at this point - best bet is to try and get Independence asap so we're in control of our own destiny rather forced somewhere by B. Johnson et al.
*hasn't actually happened* - major typo there. :-)
DeleteObviously you have given thought to an independent Scotland outside the EU. I would really appreciate it if you could indicate how you envisage Scotland going forward in this case. Would you want Indy Scotland to be in EU single market and customs union. If not would Scotland be strong enough to negotiate good trade deals with the likes of USA etc.as per the UK Brexiteers.
DeleteI see repeated claims of Yes supporters who wish to have nothing to do with the EU as they seem to imply being in Customs Union and Single market still would leave Scotland too much under EU control.
can you help me understand how you would see the way forward.
I actually sympathise with Scooters in that I'm a big fan of EFTA Norway.
DeleteHowever, I cannot understand how voting for much less independence is the best route achieve 'independence max' (out of the UK and EU).
Independence in the EU is without question far more independence than independence in a UK in the EU.
The comparison is even more stark for a Scotland in a brexited UK, where Holyrood will lose control of many powers (as per the recent UK power grab which must happen for UK trade deal negotiations unless the devolved nations get a full veto). At the same time, instead of 28 nations making laws which affect Scotland - these same laws will all be made by England for Scotland. Trade laws applying to Scotland will no longer be what's good for Denmark, Ireland, Sweden..., but only what's good for England. Scotland in a brexited UK will be devo uber minus light. Control our own Scots fisheries? Lol. London already has taken back control of those in brexit legislation and is ready to sell them the moment brexit goes ahead.
So my priority is independence for Scotland first. After that, longer term trade bloc membership can be considered. Independence medium then maybe indy max light EFTA or something.
Figures on this poll look perfectly possible, on the upper end of what could be expected based on polling so far, but possible none the less.
DeleteAfter independence we would still trade with England, but anything imported would have to be to EU standards. Anything exported to England would depend on what tariffs England applies.
DeleteTelephone polls in the past tended to favour Labour as the younger ones don't tend to have landlines. The poll is taking the temperature just as the postal votes have been issued. If it reflected in those votes being cast then it is good for the SNP.
ReplyDeleteI've seen posts on social media over the last couple of weeks from pollsters saying that they use mobile numbers as well to contact interviewees for their polls, so the days were telephone polls were contacted just using landline numbers seem to of gone.
DeleteHow long till "Federalism" makes its "pantomime horse" appearance?
ReplyDeleteIt could be--enter stage left---Labour.
Or--enter stage right--Britnat media pundits and right wing chancers.
It might have been believed 50 years ago. I always thought if it had been on the ballot in 2014, it would have won (but never implemented).
Now we are hardened by endless Britnat cynicism, so we can stick a "Boris" label onto any huckster punting federalism or free bridges.
It must be nearly time for another Brown intervention again. For the first time.
DeleteThe poll data can be found here;
ReplyDeletehttps://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/scotland-voting-intention-snp-pole-position-run-election
Johnson has a net -52% approval rating.
Delete12 years into government and sturgeon as a neutral value.
Also 50.2% Yes
Only the over 55s back the union. Things look bleak for the UK.
DeleteThere also seems to be a a gradual, but significant, favourable shift among women to YES. The gender difference in 2014 (with men favouroring independence slightly and women clearly aginst it) has apprently reduced markedly if not disappeared altogether. Some pundits are attributing this to the Nicola Sturgeon effect. Maybe they just want to look a bit more befoe they leap!
DeleteNet approval ratings:
ReplyDelete0 Sturgeon
-7 Rennie
-21 Swindon
-25 Carlaw
-33 Leopold
-47 Corbyn
-52 Johnson
IMO if Corbyn had been a more effective and charismatic leader, Labour could have walked this election. Sadly he is, and appeares far too indecisive. Trying to please everyone convinces noone.
DeleteOf the last 9 Scotland only polls in 2017, all but one overestimated the SNP vote (often by 4% or more) and all but two underestimated the Tory vote (often by 3% or more).
ReplyDeleteI'd be much more inclined to believe the YouGov projection.
But we know there was a high SNP abstention rate in 2017. It just depends whether you think history will repeat itself.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteBut polls don't project a result, they are snapshot at the time taken. The yougov model is based on current polling. It cannot see the future. No poll can.
DeleteSo, if there is movement underway, they will always be out of date very quickly.
This is what happened ahead of 2017, in Scotland and UK-wide, as can be clearly seen in polling data.
In that sense, it was impossible for any poll to predict the outcome, except by pure luck.
Take the final Scottish panelbase for example. It started the bulk of fieldwork on the 2nd June. That was 6 days before the vote, so it was already well out of date given shifts of 4%/week at least were underway.
The polls, within MoE, almost got there, but they could never account for such last minute swings in terms of turnouts, tactical voting etc. They were not underestimating on the day the fieldwork was done, but changes following meant they were too high compared to final numbers (for the SNP).
The same may happen again in some way. The main difference is that ahead of 2017, the SNP had been losing ground steadily since the GE was announced. That last few % loss the polls missed due to lag was a final acceleration of an existing trend. As people had to jump, they jumped the way others had been jumping.
This time, it would appear the SNP are holding or even gaining ground as the day approaches. So if there are last minute swings, these could go towards them.
I think Labour will gain somewhat in England at the last minute, and maybe the SNP in Scotland, based on current trends.
I largely agree with your analysis, but think the SNP are disadvantaged by "good" polls, as it gives their opposition (political and media) the opportunity to monster them.
DeleteI think we will see a LOT of that in the days to come.
There are varying reports. Some think the SNP vote is more motivated this time. Others think there are more waiverers.
DeleteBoth could be right.
But, on one level, what is the SNP offering this time compared to 2017 that will change the abstention rate?
In that sense I don't see why anyone who didn't vote in 2017 would see the point in doing so this time other than those who just want to get Brexit over the line.
Add in the increased scunner-factor with politics in general and the time of the year, there is scope for the effect of differential turnout to be even worse this time.
Nevertheless it is fun to see the Swinson/LibDem slow motion implosion. I really couldn't see the SNP winning any of their seats except possibly Caithness nor could I see the loss of NE Fife being avoided. Not so sure now. :-)
It's been a while since the last mori, but it should how little headway the Tories have made in the past year or so (changes on Mar 18).
ReplyDelete44(+5)% SNP
26(+1)% Con
16(-10)% Lab
11(+5)% Lib
3(-1)% Oth
Basically none with MoE. It does suggest they don't have great prospects for doing better than 2017, not unless there is an even bigger turnout collapse of SNP voters this time.
SNP and Lib seem to have gained from Labour's demise net. Labour have suffered from being unclear on brexit and against indy.
I know this may be a dumb question but I assume the SNP has a list of voters who didn't vote last time and Target these folks, right?
ReplyDeleteIt would be possible to identify those who voted in 2015 but didn't vote in 2017 and which of those were identified as SNP voters.
DeleteBeing able to generate the data and having the organisation and resources to do anything with it are different things though.
Um. I was doing this at 10 years old at the kitchen table with my mom .
DeleteLesley Laird will be breathing a sigh of relief in Kirkcaldy. Add that to the list of seats Labour are likely to hold.
ReplyDeleteOut of curiosity, what exactly happens with these folk who are rumbled too late to be removed from the ballot? His name will still appear alongside the party, so doesn't he stand a pretty good chance of winning even if they don't actively campaign for him?
DeleteLabour remain odds-against on Betfair in Kirkcaldy. Be pretty funny if they still lost.
DeleteIf he won he would sit as an independent candidate.
DeleteHe could still win if more voters put a cross against his name. Depends on the electoral tide on the day. He would then be an Independent by losing the whip beforehand. Funny things can happen.
DeleteJohn McNally likewise 'breathing a sigh of relief' in Falkirk.
DeleteAlso Alison Thewliss in Glasgow central, following Kirsty Blackman in Aberdeen North not very long ago.
They were all up against filler candidates, though. The SNP were actually probably going to win K&C.
DeleteThey might yet win it. Sort of. As you said, it would be pretty funny if Labour still managed to lose.
DeleteBrexit working a treat.
ReplyDeleteSkilled workers just no longer coming.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50586338
EU net migration to the UK falls to lowest level since 2003
EU net migration to the UK has fallen to its lowest level for 16 years, ONS figures show.
The difference between how many people from the EU came to the UK for at least 12 months and how many left dropped to 48,000 - the lowest level since 2003.
The ONS says this was down to fewer people coming to Britain for work, while a record high returned home.
They are literally queuing up at the exit gates.
Jesus look at the graph. It's a complete collapse. Around 80% fall in net migration from the EU in just a couple of years.
Delete'Go home' vans, the hostile environment, mass deportations of black people and threats of the same for Europeans + taking the vote away from minority groups has achieved exactly what the brexiters wanted.
Not a penny spent on new visas either!
There must be a problem in their own countries they do not wish to address! Why come to cold backward Britain. Inc (Scotland).
DeleteVoting cards for elections should be issued before postal voting. These would have to be included with the postal vote. Voting fraud would be impossible.
ReplyDeleteCould any senior activist for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath please issue a clear message as to what the strategy is in this constituency.
ReplyDelete