I think we can safely say we've never seen an opinion poll quite like this before. I did wonder in my previous blogpost whether the first poll after the European elections would put the Brexit Party in an outright lead - that hasn't quite happened, but it's just as dramatic a story as that.
Britain-wide voting intentions for Westminster (YouGov):
Liberal Democrats 24% (+6)
Brexit Party 22% (+4)
Conservatives 19% (-5)
Labour 19% (-5)
Greens 8% (+2)
SNP / Plaid Cymru 6% (+1)
Change UK 1% (-1)
UKIP 1% (-1)
Scottish subsample: SNP 44%, Conservatives 19%, Labour 12%, Liberal Democrats 11%, Brexit Party 7%, Greens 6%, Change UK 1%, UKIP 1%
What remains to be seen is whether the Lib Dem and Brexit Party surges are the real deal, or whether they're Cleggasm-type effects that will ebb away once memories of the Euro election fade. But if by any chance things carry on like this, the SNP could be in a with a golden opportunity of cleaning up at the next general election, because for the first time ever they won't have to deal with the perception that people need to vote for a Labour government as the only alternative to the Tories. Instead, they'll quite reasonably be able to point out that a vote for the SNP is the only credible way in Scotland of helping to stop Farage.
The one possible fly in the ointment, as I suggested the other day, is that it looks likely that the next Lib Dem leader will be a Scot. But even if the Scottish Lib Dems do get some sort of Swinson boost, and even if they feed off the UK bandwagon effect, they can only realistically hope to win in a relatively small minority of constituencies. There are huge swathes of Scotland where the SNP are the only conceivable beneficiaries of a Tory and Labour collapse.
If Swinson becomes leader and if Libdems win a WM GE, a problem arises. EVEL. Can she credibly lead UK govt if she doesn't always get a vote?
ReplyDeleteThis is correct. Because she is Scottish (represents a constituency here), England will not allow her full voting rights in Westminster / as PM. A similar case would apply to any other Scottish MPs in her (theoretical) cabinet.
DeleteA simple majority of MPs would not be sufficient for her to govern; she'd need a majority in England, or opposing parties will govern there domestically (and could even form a coalition to control England by voting down all related government bills).
Scots MPs are officially second class in the UK. EVEL ensures the UK cannot be governed by Scots MPs in any meaningful way. English MPs can rule Scotland, but not the other way around.
Scots MPs have no say in English devolved issues, English MPS have no say in Scotish devolved issues sounds perfectly fair.
DeleteYou're getting carried away with the anti-EVEL propaganda there. It's just an additional voting stage inserted between the second and third readings.
DeleteEnglish MPs can veto proposed legislation, but they cannot force something through without the full House's support at the final stage. If Jo Swinson is PM, it is because she has a majority of overall MPs. With that overall majority, they can get rid of the EVEL stage too.
Did you know it's only a convention that the PM should be a MP? It's entirely possible for a party leader to not bother contesting a seat and rely on 325+ MPs to appoint them as PM.
Presumably a sovereign Westminster Parliament with a Scottish PM can repeal EVEL.
DeleteThat is a fine twist which was introduced by a government of which she was a member. However, EVEL is only a stage in the voting process. Nevertheless it is a delicious irony!
DeleteHowever, more seriously is the fact that, apart from the Tories and Mr Mike Rumbles, the Scottish Parliament voted by a large majority to oppose the 'Westminster Power Grab'. Her own Lib Dems were part of the majority (except Mr Rumbles). The Labour controlled Welsh Patliament had made similar moves, but, when the pressure cam it caved in to Westminster. When Westminster voted in favour of the 'Power Grab', Ms Swinson (now out of power like the rest of her LibDem Cameronians) voted in favour of Westminster taking the powers. She justified this by say that she had to support the WELSH GOVERNMENT in this! Although she lives in England, but sits as an MP for a Scottish constituency, she felt that she had to support a part of the UK to which she has no residential or Parliamentary connection, and to oppose the actions of her party in Scotland and the MSPs representing East Dunbartonshire.
"English MPs can veto proposed legislation"
DeleteWhich means if the government doesn't hold a majority in England, domestically it is basically screwed. It is not in government with respect to England.
She lives with her family in England. Carpet bagging in East Dunbartonshire.
ReplyDeleteA carpetbagger? David Mundell should have a word with her.
DeleteShe certainly talks the talk like Knickerless young James. Like Knickerless she wants the EU Mafia to run Scotland. You Nat sis and the Lib Dem Tories should enjoy each others company.
DeleteNow is not the time for your comments brit-jock. Away and ask England's permission before you post.
DeleteGWC is not a happy Chicken its beloved Tory parties are getting a kicking even it must realise that the Yoonion is DEAD. Hard lines Chicken!
DeleteIn fairness, she did grow up in the constituency, though it is true to say that she now lives in England with her husband and child. There are, though a lot of other things to hold against her other than that.
DeleteShe went to university in England, has an English maiden surname, an English husband, English kids, English accent and probably English parents. So as far as I'm concerned a typical Scottish lib dem.
DeleteIs the sample not 101% in total?
ReplyDeleteBecause of rounding up by the polling company.
DeleteIt's time your fash nat sis were rounded up and dropped into a Labour camp.
DeleteYou have to wonder whether the Brexit Party would be able to find enough candidates to contest every constituency. And if they did so, considering the problems they had with the relatively small number of MEP candidates they fielded, whether they would be drowned in a sea of bad publicity over sexism, racism, etc. Even if their poll ratings continued at this level I don't think it would translate into an equivalent number of seats.
ReplyDeleteThey'll find them.
DeleteI do wonder how effective their vetting process will be. There was plenty of info out about the Brexit MEP candidates before the election and it didn't stop 29 of them getting in. Most of them are ticking scandal bombs, but I wonder whether even that is intentional - it's sure to generate lots and lots of news coverage.
God help us if Farage is actually choosing implicated candidates who are in his pocket. Do what he tells you to, or he leaks something and removes a rising threat to him or his party.
If you are already voting for the president of the AfD - which is Farage's official EU parliament position - then you probably don't mind if your local Brexit party candidate is e.g. talking about gassing/deporting minorities...
DeleteI know Electoral Calculus is an imprecise tool, though it does indicate which way the wind is blowing (even if on the basis of those figs it is pretty obvious), but if you want a laugh put those figs in, and you will find a list of "victims" that can do little other than put a big smile on your face.
ReplyDeleteBesides the wipe out of the Tories and Labour in Scotland, the list of MPs losing their seats include such as Iain Duncan Smith, Steve Baker, John Redwood, Peter Bone, Matt Hancock, Rory Stewart, but most deliciously Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg! Of course with the exception of Stewart and maybe Hancock, these are the people who have brought the country to its present state.
One interesting thing is the number of losses for the Tories to the Brexit Party. I recall former Labour MP Thomas Docherty saying just before the massacre of 2015 that "any Labour MP in Scotland who doesnt think they are in trouble must be drunk" - clearly feeling the hot breath of the SNP on his neck. I wonder how many Tories are sensing the same thing with the Brexit Party in particular? If you represent a "leave" constituency, how do you deal with that?
One thing is though certain, that if you think there will be a General Election any time soon, this poll is why there wont be!
If Swansin now lives in England, it would not be realistic for her to stand again for her Scottish seat (maybe she should already be looking to stand down if this move permanent).
ReplyDeleteIf she did try to stand while living in another country, she'd probably lose the seat. She'd be crucified for being an 'absentee MP who doesn't care about the local community'.
So in that sense, I can't see how the fact she used to live in Scotland for a while would help the lib Dem vote here. I mean it's not like Fox or Gove are boosting the Tory vote in Scotland...
At the same time, advertising that she's a jock in some way will only hurt the Lib vote in England. If you want to be elected there, being North British is the limit of what's acceptable. Being 'Scottish' is beyond the pale.
Joe Swanstone can lick my slit. Jockette slag.
DeleteShe has no time for likin slits. She is a gobshit like Knickerless.
DeleteYou can lick my slit in stead. Jockette slag.
DeleteI would much rather have a yes vote or some kind of independence route underway before another general election then it wouldn't matter a wank about these figures and the Brexit party surge. We would be assembling a negotiating team rather than electing mps to the house of horrors
ReplyDeleteIt will be interesting to see the next Holyrood poll. Will the lib surge continue, and are those Brexit voters now lost to whatever party they previously voted for? With the next scheduled vote in 2021 being proportional representation there could be a big effect in Edinburgh. A handful of new kids in town (Brx) and doubling of liberals would change the atmosphere. There is no law that says the largest party must form the government as we saw in Wales last time round. Willie could get backing from left and right to be FM! The bookies had this at 100-1 recently; not so far fetched now.
ReplyDeleteIf we assume a simple relationship where the Holyrood share is a simple multiple of last EU election share, then, based on 2014-16 the SNP are set for 60.6% in 2021 and the liberals 15.3%. So big gains for both. Holyrood would be a sea of Remain yellows and charging towards indy at breakneck speed!
DeleteYou sound like a creme puff pansy. Have you put your lipstick in your handbag yet ye fanny?
DeleteGWC, you shouldnae be posting until you've had permission from England.
DeleteOf course, Westminster telling Scots that 'England owns Scotland so shut it jock Scum' is heard loud and clear in Wales and N. Ireland (and Gibraltar...the Falklands...), where it translates to 'England owns Wales and N. Ireland Paddy/Paddy-Brit & Taff scum!.
ReplyDelete'Now is not the time and the English government will decide when it is!' ends democracy in all home nations apart from England; they are of course permitted their grand fuck up of an independence (brexit).
https://twitter.com/AMCarwyn/status/1134558032849965057
An interesting aside relating to josephine swindle's lies on QT.
ReplyDeleteI see that well known Yes supporter J Macannennanny is in full support of her lies, and happily repeating the 4% claim backed up by all the most extreme yoons.
How much longer are people going to pretend he is anything other than a raving anti-Scottish bigot working for the yoonion?
His twatter feed also contains a link to a bbbc story on how the evil british empire tried to erase India's third gender. No doubt part of his support for self-ID and using the tranny fannies to destroy the SNP.
I'd like to think that everybody would have beein in 1005 support of this.
"New research reveals how the British rulers targeted and tried to eliminate eunuchs in colonial India."
Cheering on the mutilation of boys is not very progressive, and suggesting that people with dark skin should be allowed to do so as it's part of their culture is the very definition of racism. He's an odd cove that one.