So I was just doing some basic sums. A little under 92% of Catalan voters who turned out yesterday voted in favour of independence. The overall turnout, suppressed by Spanish state violence, was 42.3%. This means that roughly 38% of the entire registered electorate voted Yes. You could therefore take the turnout all the way up to 75% (not all that far short of what was achieved in the free and semi-fair Scottish referendum), and still be guaranteed of a Yes victory even if all the extra voters were No voters, which would obviously be extremely unlikely. In reality, even a turnout in the low 80s would almost certainly have produced a Yes majority.
Spain now has a massive legitimacy problem. Even the dogs on the street know that Catalonia is being held captive within Spain by means of thuggery. All that Madrid and its apologists have left is the claim that the vote was not "free and fair" - but the problem is that (very unusually) it was the losing side that ensured it was not and could not be free and fair. The losing side also has the capacity to hold a free and fair re-run at any time it chooses. The onus is therefore on Madrid to either organise/facilitate that re-run, or accept yesterday's result. Doing neither is simply unsustainable in the modern world.
I hope the Catalan government's success in creating new facts on the ground by holding an unauthorised referendum has been noted by the SNP leadership. Thankfully, I doubt if we would have to face British state violence, but if London remains intransigent we might (at some point) have to be brave enough to get the ball rolling without a Section 30 order.
Incidentally, on the subject of London wanting a "strong and united Spain" (and to hell with the democratic choice made by the Catalan people) - I presume that means we'll be handing back Gibraltar? Madrid does, after all, regard Gibraltar as being every bit as much part of Spain's "indivisible territory" as Catalonia is. Exercises in Gibraltarian self-determination have been held in exactly the same contempt by Spain as yesterday's vote.
When a government uses violence to suppress the human rights of a section of it's population,it has lost the moral authority to govern.
ReplyDeleteIt's claims about illegality just won't cut it.
There is no justification for their actions and just shows that,as with England's right wing government,they clearly thought they would lose this referendum so had to do everything they could to prevent it taking place.
Disgraceful.
If it was 'illegal' which it was, Rajoy could have stood aside, let it take place and gone to the courts. There is of course a problem with that. Denying the peoples of Catalonia and the Basque the right of self-determination is unjust. As St. Augustine put it: Lex iniusta lex non est.
DeleteThankfully in Scotland it wouldn't be "unauthorised" it just wouldn't be legally binding - much like the BrExit vote wasn't
ReplyDeleteRajoy and his bunch of boobs make Theresa May look competent. Why didn't they just let the vote go ahead and then ignore the result? That's the tried and tested way of dealing with these matters in civilised countries. At the very least, if you have to batter old women with truncheons, get proxies to do it - not the actual fucking police.
ReplyDeleteIf you stand with the Spanish Government on this, you stand against Gandhi and his peaceful quest for Indian independence. Or should he have abode by the rules that his colonial masters laid down? No? Then nor should the Catalans.
ReplyDeleteGandhi was allegedly not fond of black people! The film was not all that good.
DeleteThe division of India is his legacy. Islamic fascists ruined the freedom of India.
You stand against Dr. Martin Luther King and his fight against LEGAL discrimination. You stand against Rosa Parks and her illegal desire to sit at the front of the bus. You stand against Frederick Douglass and his illegal desire to be a free man. You stand against Nelson Mandela and his illegal desire to end apartheid.
DeleteYou are absolutely wrong about other one thing. The division of India is the legacy of Cyril Radcliffe and the British.
Your first paragraph is self indulgent nonsense with no evidence.
DeleteThe Islamic State of Pakistan was going to happen and no one could stop it without the possibility of all out war.
Either you stand with the right to resist unjust laws or you do not, in Catalonia and elsewhere. There is no in between. I am amused however that instead of being Gandhi's fault, now the division of India was inevitable and hence no one's fault. The FACT is that the division of India was planned and instrumented by Cyril Radcliffe and the British state.
DeleteThe fact is is India wanted independence and they got it....Now they compete with their tolerant neighbour Pakistan who uphold freedom and diversity of the human spirit... Something the Scottish nat sis have in common with their working class English neighbours! Aye.
DeleteStench of this.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteDon't forget the estimated 770,000 votes that were seized by police in raids on polling stations (and aren't included in the final count). Do we have any reason to suspect that there was a significantly different Yes/No split amongst those seized votes? If not, then you could crank the turnout all the way up to 100% and still have a guaranteed victory for Yes.
ReplyDeleteThose 770,000 missing ballots certainly bring the turnout over 50% and validate the referendum. The SI vote in countable ballots must have been 70% of turnout. The legitimacy of that result cannot be denied.
ReplyDeleteTurnout does matter a lot, it appears. "roughly 38% of the entire registered electorate voted Yes"
ReplyDeleteWell, interestingly, in Scotland 2014, roughly 37.75% of the entire registered electorate voted Yes. If another ten percent of the electorate had decided to abstain rather than voting No, our Yes would have narrowly swung it.
Back to Catalonia, the balance of probabilities would suggest to me that if 90% of the 750,000 allegedly seized votes were also Yes(~675k), then they had ~2,700,000 out of 5,350,000. This would actually be 51 or 52% of their entire registered electorate. Unfortunately, we'll never know with legal certainty what those missing votes actually were.
In Catalonia 38% of the entire registered electorate voted Yes. In the UK 37% of the entire registered electorate voted for Brexit.
ReplyDelete.... any way you cut it, our cousins the Catalans were not afforded a "free & fair" vote on their future. We see in plain view the repressive might of the Spanish State against peaceful Catalans who wish to determine their future. It is now that the European Union must stand up and be counted, for if not then the Eurosceptic's will claim victory and point to a "toothless tiger". We must stand with our Catalan Cousins in their hour of need.
ReplyDeleteThe EU has already "officially" sided with the Spanish government. As someone who has stood by the EU for four decades, I feel betrayed that they can not even in the mildest terms, criticise the Madrid fascist government for the terrorising of its own citizens.
DeleteMy continued support for the EU is now wafer thin. Perhaps a future independent Scotland needs to carefully consider the extent to which it ties itself to the EU unless there are real and meaningful changes made.
Not only a sad day for Catalunya, but an equally sad one for democracy and human rights. I am glad the UN seems to take a firmer view on the matter. Critical times for Europe.
Hi,
ReplyDeleteJames could you please do a piece exploring if the tory vote is collapsing because of the mishandling of brexit. Possibly why the indy vote is recovering people want an option if there is no deal.
We must assume from the reaction of the EU,so far,that they view EU citizens rights as being the responsibility of individual member states to safeguard.
ReplyDeleteNow that we can see that this does not happen,then the European courts will have to enforce the law,or then again maybe not.
Knickerless and her fash clearly at a loss to influence the Scottish Unionist community over to their narrowback cause are now interferring in the Spanish Inquisition. Not a way to make friends with a nation that could veto the nat si aim to let the EU run Scotland.
ReplyDeleteWe have won the argument that is why yer erses are nippin. Call the referendum Nat sis.
DeleteWe have brexit, we are treating Knickerless with contempt like the frumpy numpty she is and she will still not call it.
Jock bottle merchants. Up yer lederhosen.
Nat si are English hating racists. The UK voted out so it is the UK who negotiate.
No special considerations for the Jock fash. Knickerless could not be trusted in any negotiations as she would bubble tae Herman any negotiating position.
So call yer referendum and be done with it shitebags. Do it now scumbags.
Sell Scotland out to Germany ya leeches.
Frau Knickerless says it will be Autumn 2018. Wee smelly drawers hedging her bets.
We should be well out of the EU by then.
Pro Union at 52% inspite of the mad frenzy by the Nat sis who claim to represent the Scots and more so after the brexit vote.
So where are the Nat sis going wrong. Oh sorry I have the answer the fash do not speak for all of Scotland and the majority of Scots do not want to be run from Bruxelles und Frankfurt.
Knickerless should resign along with the Paisley slapper. Time tae move on Nat sis you need fresh blood.
Scottish MSP'S need reduced by at least a half. Millions saved for public services. A dozen Jock Mps at Westminster would suffice. Millions saved for public services.
MEP'S to be withdrawn. Millions saved for public services. H of L shut down. Millions saved for public service
Knickerless Sturgeon Jock fascist
Poor wee Nat si Jocks fae ra North. All yer crap about Brexit and selling Scotland out to the fash EU beaurocrats and you are still not ahead.
Where are you going wrong? Could it be the Scots do not want to be sold out to Herman and the Frogs.
The majority of Scots prefer their English neighbour! That must stick in yer craw ya fascists.
Paisley slapper coining in the taxpayers money. She must have a life season ticket at Ibrox. The woman if it is a woman is a disgrace to Scotland.
The Nat si bubble will burst eventually.
Frau Knickerless says it will be Autumn 2018. Wee smelly drawers hedging her bets.
We should be well out of the EU by then.
£350 million handed to Scotland from the English taxpayer and not a bit of gratitude from the greedy Scottish MP'S who are coining it in and laughing at the Scottish people.
Cut the Scottish MSP'S by half and half the emissions.
Hoose of Lords still sitting debating brexit. 200 ambulances waiting ootside tae take them home.
Meanwhile the Joke Nat si MP'S are trying tae get Kim Jung Eck tae buy a round in the Red Lion.
A poor person noted the Jocks were always first at the bar but their credit cards had expired.
The Nat sis are shitting themselves to go for a referendum.
All the crap they spouted since September 14 and here we are, Nae referendum.
Even their English hating racist fascist supporters have gone stumn.
Even the Jock fash fundamentalist Nat sis are shiting themselves fae haudin a referendum.
The colostomy bags are full and choking the scumbags. The smell and wind phew!!!
Frau Knickerless wee shmellie fishy drawers tae sell out Scotland tae ra German Nat sis and the Herman Frankfurt bank.
Hoots man ra noo we Brtitish are still around ye ken ra noo.
Love you impersonator. Storing all that Jocko fascist anti English hatred within yourself really is impressive. I know your pain losing out to the Union. Aye. Let it all go you will feel better. A wee bit of ham shanking will release your potential!! Independence in Europe oh ahh selling oot Scotland innatt!!! Up yer kilt toss pot.
DeleteThat's no impersonation, dearie. Looks like someone merely copied and pasted some of your greatest hits...
DeleteKeep yer 'dearie' for your chums in the Merchant City.
DeleteYes, dearie.
DeleteThere's something a wee bit sad about how much you post here "GWC". Gotta say - it looks obsessive and weird.
DeleteTestify!
Delete