Is it cos she is TYRANNICAL? Theresa rocked as Ipsos-Mori poll suggests she could LOSE HER MAJORITY

You know the drill by now, folks.

*puts on Canadian accent*

It's another terrrrr-ible afternoon for the Conservative party.

Britain-wide voting intentions (Ipsos-Mori) :

Conservatives 45% (-4)
Labour 40% (+6)
Liberal Democrats 7% (n/c)
SNP / Plaid Cymru 3% (-1)
Greens 2% (-1)
UKIP 2% (n/c)

As soon as they published this poll, Ipsos-Mori came under fire from commentators (and indeed from other pollsters such as ICM's Martin Boon) for producing the implausibility of a Labour vote share that isn't far off what Tony Blair achieved in his landslides of 1997 and 2001.  But it should be noted that it's happened in spite of Ipsos-Mori introducing a stricter turnout filter for this poll, which predictably works in the Tories' favour.  Without that, the swing would be even more extreme and the Tory lead would be down to just 3 points.  The other more general point is that the Lib Dems were much, much stronger in 1997 and 2001, which is a potentially reasonable explanation for Labour now having a vote share comparable to that period, even though their current leadership does not command the same public confidence that Blair's team did.

A familiar alibi for the Tories whenever they get a bad poll is that leadership ratings are often more predictive of election results than headline voting intentions are.  There's some truth in that, which is why they must be horrified that Jeremy Corbyn has almost caught up with the Prime Minister in net satisfaction ratings.  We're very used to Theresa May having a negative rating in Scotland, but this is the first time it's happened across Britain as a whole - 43% of respondents are satisfied with her, and 50% are dissatisfied.  Corbyn's ratings are almost identical - 39% satisfied, 50% dissatisfied.  It's true that May does better when respondents are asked to make a straight choice between the two leaders, but even on that measure her lead has dropped catastrophically since April (from 38 points to 15).

The combined 3% vote share for the SNP and Plaid doesn't look great, but as the same firm has only just produced a full-scale Scottish poll giving the SNP a massive 18% lead over both the Tories and Labour, we probably shouldn't be too alarmed.  The Britain-wide sample was 1046, so the Scottish subsample will have been less than 100 even before the turnout filter was applied.

As long-term readers of this blog will remember from the independence referendum, Ipsos-Mori always publish two sets of voting intention numbers side-by-side - the headline numbers filtered by turnout, and numbers without the turnout filter applied.  On the latter measure, this poll is truly jaw-dropping.

Britain-wide voting intentions (Ipsos-Mori, without turnout filter) :

Labour 43% (+6)
Conservatives 40% (-6)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+2)
SNP / Plaid Cymru 3% (-1)
UKIP 3% (+1)
Greens 1% (-1)

I suspect a number of politicians on the left will be starting to think about the potential virtues of Australian-style compulsory voting.  If we had it for this election, we'd currently be talking about the probability of a hung parliament, rather than the vague chance that it might just about happen.