Just for the sheer hell of it, we might as well have a Poll of Polls for Scottish voting intentions at the general election. I was going to check which methodology I used last time around...and then I realised I knew exactly which methodology I used, because the last general election was only about fifteen seconds ago.
As before, Scottish subsamples of GB-wide polls will be taken into account, because they often represent the only up-to-date information we have. That's obviously unsatisfactory because the figures are not properly weighted, but an average of several subsamples shouldn't lead us quite as wildly astray as an individual subsample might. Whenever a full-scale Scottish poll comes along, that will be given ten times the weight of a subsample. At the moment all we have from the last week are three subsamples (two from ICM and one from YouGov), so the following figures should be treated with great caution...
SNP 44.3%
Conservatives 24.3%
Labour 16.0%
Greens 7.0%
Liberal Democrats 6.3%
UKIP 1.7%
* * *
I have a new article at the TalkRadio website arguing that the election could be an opportunity in disguise for Jeremy Corbyn, and a risk in disguise for Ruth Davidson. That's not a prediction of how I think things will play out, but just a reminder that the outcome of this campaign is not yet set in stone. You can read the article HERE.
* * *
Kezia Dugdale describing the Labour party as a "progressive alliance" reminded me of Voltaire's joke about the Holy Roman Empire - "it was neither holy, nor Roman, nor an empire".
I'm a green member and think this initial poll is clearly a little off, think most of that 7% can be seen to fold into the SNP. I know I will. (Alison Thewlis has been great)
ReplyDeleteIndeed, if you put those figures into a seat calculator the Greens don't get any and the Tories gain 3 at the expense of the SNP, with Libdems & Labour holding 1 seat each.
DeleteWhereas if you assign all Green votes to SNP the SNP gain 1 seat, Libdems & Labour are wiped out and Tories gain 1.
Imagine Mays position if the SNP actually gained a seat when they are expected by some to lose up to 10 seats.
So this is the obvious tactic for the independence movement and the Greens have gained a lot of respect for their ability to see the long game.
I took part in a panelbase poll today asking voting intention and some indy ref questions. So hopfully we have a full scottish poll out soon.
ReplyDeleteIn relation to the Talk Radio article I think you are being naïve about the Brit Nat Media playing fair by the rules of election coverage James. Oh and that Media will not challenge the Ruthless one either.
ReplyDeleteThe Media is going to go all out to destroy any opposition to destroy any opposition to the present day High Priestess of the Thatcher Cult in this GE.
Davidson will be joined at the hip with kipper Theresa in the mind of the scottish public so there's no question she is going to take a hit. The comically desperate attempts by the BBC and westminster bubble media to portray her as cuddly Rape Clause Ruth were always doomed to failure.
DeleteCorbyn is simply waaay out of his depth. He was never leadership material. So despite the Corbynistas protestations that he was a different kind of Labour Leader his refusal to countenance an anti-Tory progressive alliance with the SNP was done precisely because he is just as scared of the right-wing BritNat tabloids as little Ed Milliband was. Same old shit, same old weak ineffectual Labour.
You can't polish a turd as May's own party and P.R. handlers realise. Which is precisely why she is running a mile from debating anyone, even, as the polls show, one of the most unelectable Labour party leaders for decades. Something the scottish public at least will hardly have missed.
Nor has it gone unnoticed by the public at large that the Crown Prosecution Service possibly charging as many as 30 Tory MPs and election staffers for electoral Expenses Fraud might, just might, have something to do with this hilariously chaotic panic snap election.
The BBC and almost every other westminster bubble broadcaster might want to brush it under the carpet but I'm afraid they have, as usual, overestimated their importance with a public which is moving ever more rapidly to getting most of their News from social media, family and friends.
The Food Umbrella @thefoodumbrella 5h
DeleteA list of the Tory MPs being investigated for #ElectionFraud
RT & SHARE
#87RT #GeneralElection #GE2017 #GE17 #GeneralElection2017
pic.twitter.com/nrVRYVCmbv
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For what it's worth, plugging the above into Scotland votes gives 52 seats to the SNP, electoral calculus gives 53. 3 seats going Tory, the expected culprits, West Aberdeenshire, Berwickshire and D&G. Scotland votes has East Dunbartonshire going to the Lib Dems also.
ReplyDeleteThe Nat si Westminster MP'S are at a loss and indeed looking fat and bloated with the good life. They should return home tae Scotland and work for a living.
ReplyDeleteThe troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor
DeleteKimberley ���� @Indy_Kimberley 6 hours ago
ReplyDeleteKimberley ���� Retweeted The Food Umbrella
If @DavidMundellDCT is charged it will happen between May 20th and June 3rd according to the Mirror.
This could all get a whole lot crazier.
Nat sis, Tories and Labour supporting giving taxpayers money to people who left the UK in the form of pension top ups. And the streets in Scotland are overwhelmed with begging on the streets due to Nat si policies.
ReplyDeleteThe troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor
DeleteRepugnant moneygrubbing Labour goon Ian Murray is so utterly desperate to cling on to his own job (off the back of tory votes) he just threw entire Scottish Labour Party and their councillors under the bus as he demanded Labour voters vote for the tories everywhere in scotland but in his own seat.
ReplyDeleteAlasdair AllanVerified account @alasdairallan 8 hours ago
Labour's last MP in Scotland seems to be saying vote Tory in some seats "to defeat the SNP". Warped priorities.
It would be incredible if it weren't so predictable by now.
Lucrative Job first, BritNat second, Labour Party third, Scotland last.
SLAB priorites in 2017.
DeleteJOHN NICOLSON M.P.Verified account @MrJohnNicolson 1 hour ago
Will they never learn? Tim Farron refuses to rule out another Conservative coalition
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You could put a monkey up for a Nat si seat in parliament! Remember that Nat sis?
ReplyDeleteSave this script in your bookmarks, load up the comments page, click the newly created bookmark..no more GWC :)
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Love you fascists. Looks like the islamists are on a roll in Paris again. And you nutters wanted them into Scat land in droves, Love you fash.
DeleteThe troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor
DeleteGeneral Election 2017: Nigel Farage won't stand as an MP
DeleteThat's a shame. Watching him get beaten has become a kind of election time tradition. Same with Murdo Fraser.
DeleteHumza YousafVerified account @HumzaYousaf 5 minutes ago
ReplyDeleteHumza Yousaf Retweeted sarah smith
Ruth Davidson made it on to BBC 10pm News bulletin tonight but for all wrong reasons. Her defence of Rape Clause showing her true colours
She is an odious turd. Talking of turds where's the vermin Aldo hiding
ReplyDeleteThe troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor
DeleteGeneral Election 2017: Nigel Farage won't stand as an MP
ReplyDeleteProbably pissed.
DeleteThe troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor
DeleteHumza YousafVerified account @HumzaYousaf 5 minutes ago
ReplyDeleteHumza Yousaf Retweeted sarah smith
Ruth Davidson made it on to BBC 10pm News bulletin tonight but for all wrong reasons. Her defence of Rape Clause showing her true colours
KIPPER TORIES, DO NOT VISIT THIS WEBSITE
ReplyDeleteconservatives2017.com
IT MAY UPSET YOU
Dolly the former English Sheep getting plenty of air time. Is she being groomed tae take over fae Knickerless!
ReplyDeleteBorn in England lived in NI. Wants Scotland tae leave the Union. Could it be hatred of the British! Interesting indeed.
Save this script in your bookmarks, load up the comments page, click the newly created bookmark..no more GWC :)
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The Government should send in the troops to protect Unionists from the Nat sis. Unionists must be allowed to keep their New British passports after brexit.
DeleteThe troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor
DeleteDeniseCouper @GraceBrodie
ReplyDeleteYouGov polling
Teresa May
Approval
UK +23
Scotland -26
Good ideas to improve the country
UK +7
Scotland -30
In touch
UK -14
Scotland -46
.
How to qualify to be a Nat si. 1. Hate your fellow Scottish Unionists who are decendents of hard working people who raised Scotland from the gutter. 2. Hate the English even more. 3. Hate anyone who does not conform to the Nat si indoctrination. 4. Sell out Scotland to the EU.
ReplyDeleteThe troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor
DeleteSteven Anderson @St_Anderson38 57 minutes ago
ReplyDelete"Across Scotland as a whole, just 10.6% of the electorate actively supported the Conservatives with their vote"
Already one of the most shared Election 2017 photos on twitter and Facebook
ReplyDeletehttp://www.katoikos.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/may-in.jpg
Oh dear!
Let's hope they don't put that photo in the empty (cowards) chair for the debates. :D
ROFL
I need a new goat Ive worn the old one out, it must be female as I refuse to sleep with male goats as thats animal abuse
ReplyDeleteThe troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor
DeleteDo we know how many Scottish seats the Greens intend to stand in?
ReplyDeleteI think you are dead right about the possibility of a redeeming performance for Corbyn and trouble ahead for Davidson. Davidson is a hard brexiteer now, and Tories at both Scottish and British levels will be forced to explain what hard Brexit means in their manifesto, what the implication for the economy, exporters, and the public services will be, and why none of this contradicts what they were all (esp Davidson) were saying before the Brexitrendum. Its going to be very hard for Ruth to dance on that pin, and I suspect there will be a Scottish debate even if there is not a UK debate.
I have a hard brexit just now but saving it for Knickerless and Dolly the Sheep.
DeleteReal men do not have a soft brexit. You Nat sis are going tae get pumped with a hard brexit and the Scottish people will remain in the Union.
Not sure if parody or real
DeleteHard pressed by who? A couple knighthoods here and dame whatevers there and they will go " corbins crazy" and start calling the tory claims " alternate facts" like they do over here.
DeleteThere is the possibility that Greens will choose not to run candidates at least in some constituencies which could influence the outcome. In the meantime, I'm trying to recall what the most recent Scottish Westminster poll was as, as James points out, the subsamples have to be viewed with great caution.
ReplyDeleteGood points James I would never even think about some of because I could never vote Tory or Labour for that matter,I see them as part of the Establishment Party along with the slugs that get called Lib-Dems.I usually call them the Westminster party with 2 alias'. I see its Disqus you get for verification unfortunately they have my email wrong the "s" is missing in Charles,and so I cant verify that its me.I did like the post on talk radio though.
ReplyDeleteI started to read some of the comments then got to the prat GWC and it puts me off bothering with comments,I had to leave the one about verification here and one the Facebook share.I doubt I'll even bother with comments anymore and I suspect I'm not the only one not bothering because of idiots wasting other peoples work.The inability to build makes them destroy the good works of others.We have had enough of them useless pieces of flesh gorging on what others earn parasites and no use to man nor beast.
ReplyDeleteIs that right Tory boy. You Nat sis have been knobled. You are so thick in the heid that you actually think no one notices your continuation of Thatcherite policies. Corbyn to his credit has seen through you scumbags since you took power.
DeleteThe troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor
DeleteThe above poster knows the Unionists will prevail thus the desperation and the repetitive similar post. And in denial that the Nat sis are more to the right of the Tories. Probably a religious fanatic.
DeleteSave this script in your bookmarks, load up the comments page, click the newly created bookmark..no more GWC :)
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The troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor
DeleteJeremy Corbyn rules out anti Tory coalition with the Jock Nat sis who are Tories. Clever wee bloke Jeremy is. He can smell scum from a long distance.
ReplyDeleteThe troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor
DeleteAngus RobertsonVerified account @AngusRobertson 11 hours ago
ReplyDeleteTory candidate for @TheMorayCouncil promoted extremist right-wing group 'Britain First', as well as other offensive material. #nastyparty
The Jock nat sis are more to the right than the BNP. The BNP do not hate the English!
ReplyDeleteThe troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor
DeleteJock Nat sis to burn out English second homes in Scotland. Go home English bastards we hate you.
ReplyDeleteThe troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor
DeleteThe Food Umbrella? @thefoodumbrella 5h
DeleteA list of the Tory MPs being investigated for #ElectionFraud
RT & SHARE
#87RT #GeneralElection #GE2017 #GE17 #GeneralElection2017
pic.twitter.com/nrVRYVCmbv
Angus RobertsonVerified account @AngusRobertson 11 hours ago
ReplyDeleteTory candidate for @TheMorayCouncil promoted extremist right-wing group 'Britain First', as well as other offensive material. #nastyparty
Jock nat sis do not know they are Tories. Thick as shite they are. Giving a bus pass to the elderly makes them think they are socialist. And meanwhile they hand out taxpayers money to the Thatcherite privatised companies. Ye hiv tae laugh.
ReplyDeleteThe troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor
DeleteThe troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor
ReplyDeleteYe hiv tae laugh.
DeleteThe troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor
DeleteYe hiv tae laugh.
DeleteThe troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor
DeleteThe Food Umbrella @thefoodumbrella 5h
DeleteA list of the Tory MPs under criminal investigation for #ElectionFraud
RT & SHARE
#87RT #GeneralElection #GE2017 #GE17 #GeneralElection2017
pic.twitter.com/nrVRYVCmbv
Angus RobertsonVerified account @AngusRobertson 11 hours ago
ReplyDeleteTory candidate for @TheMorayCouncil promoted extremist right-wing group 'Britain First', as well as other offensive material. #nastyparty
Ye hiv tae laugh at the National pretend Socialist fash joke Jocks and their fake news.
DeleteThe troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor
DeleteThe Nat si centre left party with right wing Thatcherite policies. Ye couldnae make it up.
DeleteThe troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor
DeleteFergus Mutch @Fergoodness 3 hours ago
DeleteThere will be no SNP / Tory coalitions in councils after these local elections says @NicolaSturgeon to @SkyNews
Angus RobertsonVerified account @AngusRobertson 11 hours ago
ReplyDeleteTory candidate for @TheMorayCouncil promoted extremist right-wing group 'Britain First', as well as other offensive material. #nastyparty
Matt TurnerVerified account @MattTurner4L 8h
DeleteFormer British Ambassador points out Theresa May’s election platform is identical to the BNP’s in 2005
http://evolvepolitics.com/ambassador-theresa-may-manifesto-bnp/
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Steven Anderson @St_Anderson38 Apr 21
ReplyDeleteThis week Katie Hopkins (@KTHopkins) endorsed 2 political parties. Ruth Davidson's Conservatives & Marine Le Pen's National Front
Tories’ drift to the right may be unstoppable
Deletehttps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tories-drift-to-the-right-may-be-unstoppable
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Kimberley ���� @Indy_Kimberley 4 minutes ago
DeleteKimberley ���� Retweeted Ruth Davidson
Scotland has said No to Tories for over 60 yrs & we'll be saying No in May & June again & we mean it. So we look forward to you fucking off.
.
The Nat sis have not just drifted to the right they have moved fast.
ReplyDeleteThe troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor
DeleteMakes ye laugh.
DeleteThe troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor
DeleteAnonymous is possibly a decendent of Arthur Donaldson. Zeig Heil Jocks...English and Jews out . Wir canny pay die gas bill Fuhrer can sie hilfen.
ReplyDeleteThe troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor
DeleteKimberley ���� @Indy_Kimberley 4 minutes ago
ReplyDeleteKimberley ���� Retweeted Ruth Davidson
Scotland has said No to Tories for over 60 yrs & we'll be saying No in May & June again & we mean it. So we look forward to you fucking off.
.
The SNP look fucked
ReplyDeleteWell the lying bastards should be fucked. The working class usually get around to sussing shite.
DeleteThe troll calls scottish people "jocks", advocates arming Leave campaigners, arbitrary deportations and public mutilations, claimed Jo Cox's husband was a fascist, uses racial, homophobic and ethnic slurs, pretends to be Labour (badly) while espousing far-right racist hate-speech, praises Theresa May and the tories and displays a perverted poisonous obsession with Scotland's First Minister & her predecessor
Delete