There were two schools of thought in the wake of the extraordinary recent polls from TNS and Ipsos-Mori polls showing a majority for independence. Along with a number of others, I felt it was most likely that there hadn't been any recent change in public opinion, and that what we were seeing was a divergence opening up between online and non-online pollsters. But some people felt that TNS and Ipsos-Mori were picking up a shift that had occurred over the summer, and that the next poll from an online firm would confirm that. Unfortunately, it looks like I was right. In their new poll, YouGov are reporting much the same state of play that they've been showing since their major methodological change a few months ago.
Should Scotland be an independent country? (YouGov)
Yes 48% (+1)
No 52% (-1)
So the probability is that the increase in Yes support shown by TNS and Ipsos-Mori was exactly the same increase detected by the online firms in the very early stages after the referendum, and that the position has remained relatively stable since then. If TNS and Ipsos-Mori had been polling on independence regularly over the last year, the chances are that we would have seen a steady Yes lead from them, while the online firms were showing (on average) a very narrow No lead. What's changed over the last couple of weeks is that we're now seeing the whole picture, rather than only half of it. The new information increases the chances that Yes have been in the lead for quite some time without us being aware of it - but we certainly can't be sure of that. It just depends which firms and methodologies you trust most.
The YouGov datasets don't seem to be out yet, but I would advise people to be enormously sceptical of the spin being put on the results of the supplementary questions. This seems to be a classic case of an anti-independence client (the Times) asking a pollster to use leading question wording to produce the results they want. For example, a multi-option question was asked on nuclear weapons to nudge people towards the middle, 'moderate' option, so that backers of the pro-Trident and the middle option could be lumped together to claim that there is a majority in favour of the retention of nuclear weapons. Utterly cynical, and I expect we'll find that equivalent tactics were used to produce an artificial majority against a second independence referendum taking place in the short-to-medium term (a finding that suspiciously contradicts what we've seen from many other polls).
It's a clear gap between real world pollsters and online pollsters by the looks of it...
ReplyDeleteCould recalled referendum vote be a factor though?
It will be interesting to see a breakdown of Yes/No/Undecided which I think is always a lot more useful than the headline figures. If no are on 49%, then it's the equivalent of running a race but you have so much of a headstart you're standing next to the finishing line.
ReplyDeleteIt's nice to be back on top anyway.
"Back on top"? What are you wittering about, man? Yes are up 1% and No are down 1%.
DeleteJust to add, in a highly charged political climate where one side is deeply unfashionable (i.e. the noes), it isn't very useful to perform polls either face to face or over the telephone. At least online, you are speaking to a computer programme and not a human being - and can probably be more confident in giving your honest views.
ReplyDeleteYou know TNS face to face is anonymous right? They only select people face to face, then you complete the survey anonymously by a computer they give you to use.
DeleteBut even that small element of human contact could influence things. The human mind is a strange thing. I'm sure an entire field of psychiatry could be founded on this sort of thing - probably already has been.
DeleteI think you're confusing psychiatry and psychology. You're also probably thinking of a 'spiral of silence' - but these things only last for a very short time and only within the context of the event itself (eg, within the referendum campaign) rather than its aftermath. I think it's unlikely that the members of the (apparently) previously silent element of the No-voting population would return to a state of silence after the vote. It's more likely that they would feel justifiably more vocal since they are now knowingly in the majority. There is no need for them to be silent, plus such research is anonymous if conducted by telephone. Online research panels are more heavily biased, and naturally exclude those from poorer communities because people living in such areas are statistically far less likely than average to have access to the internet.
DeleteOf course, the broader context has changed in the last twelve months. We now have a majority Tory government in London, hell-bent on returning the UK to some sort of laissez-faire economic model unseen since Victorian times; while in Scotland the SNP almost took an absolute majority of votes and have a near monopoly of seats in Scotland - in effect, we are now diametrically opposed to England politically. Coupled with the panoply of international events (including Greece, the disaster in the Middle East and resultant refugee crisis, and the impending arrival of TTIP), many of the 'soft' No-voters are perhaps likely to have been convinced that they made a mistake last September. There is evidence of an inceased proportion of under 55s saying they would vote for independence in comparison with those who did so in the referendum, while the over 55s are still opposed.
So the real phenomenon here is continued change-resistance among the older people in society, and increasing change-acceptance among the younger people.
I don't think a spiral of silence can be dissipated so easily. We still have shy tories - that has been a problem since the inception of political polling, despite several conservative governments. No voters are lambasted as Quislings, traitors and - if they dare to voice their opinions on the nat-dominated web sphere - trolls.
DeleteThere is more reason to be quiet now since the referendum BECAUSE we won - we are the people who "cost" Scotland its independence. What tends to make people more angry - a threat or an actual punch to the guts? There is more reason for no voters to be quiet now than there ever was.
If tory austerity is a problem, then you can be assured that tartan austerity would be an even bigger problem. Besides, the extra devolution will give the SNP a chance to offset the tory cuts through rises in Scottish taxation.
They will finally have to put our money where their mouth is.
As I mentioned on the other thread, this suggests Yougov is picking up steady movement to Yes since May's GE as per MORI and TNS. Gap ex-dk seems to have closed from 6.5 points to ~4 points. Need tables to see exact numbers, but all very positive, particularly as Yougov is historically not very Yes friendly (at least away from actual votes).
ReplyDelete"Steady movement to yes" - we've been hearing this line for about 2 years now. It's just noise. Shy noes / yes bottlers / undecided status quo bias / polling limitations mean that if a referendum were held now it would be an exact repeat of the result of last year. Ten years hence, with North Sea oil effective being dismantled, it could well be 60-40 for no.
ReplyDeleteI think their best chance was last year - and they failed.
What are you doing on here sounding nervous for then?
DeleteYou are an odd chap.
Also you still seem to be avoiding Tory failures. Why is unemployment rising in England since the Tories took over in majority. Is that part of the 'long term economic plan'?
Sounding nervous? I predicted no would very swiftly retake the lead - and I was right. Nae fear here!
DeleteEconomic recovery, if graphed, would be a wiggly line. It goes up and down - but the trend is generally 'up'.
What about the things the SNP has direct control over? The economy is a ferocious beast, difficult to tame, and often does its own thing (as a free market economy will). But education, police, public roads - these things are entirely within the gift of the government to control. So why is the SNP doing so badly then?
71% satisfied with the FM is 'badly'?
DeletePolling at least 55% is 'badly'?
This is why you shouldn't let the Tories run the country. Numbers are difficult for them.
Being popular doesn't necessarily mean you are doing a good job, Scottish Skier.
DeleteCurriculum for Excellence? Police Scotland? Falling teacher numbers? Would you really call these things successes?
The SNP will probably remain popular until they do something that hits people in their bank accounts. Black Wednesday killed off the tories in their Thatcher/Major incarnation. The Great Recession killed off New Labour.
The sooner the SNP get greater controls over taxation, spending and borrowing, the sooner we can return to a state of healthy democracy in Scotland, where numpties aren't hero worshipped.
Aldo - Troll Idiot
DeleteI wouldn't bet against Disreporting Jackie or the equally poisonous Britannia TV Aberdeen running with this cynical piece of Brit Nat statistical manipulation.
ReplyDeleteI get average 52% Yes / 48% No now. Probably more 50/50 (another online such as survation is needed). A new record PoP average.
ReplyDeleteRemember Quebec.
DeleteWith "don't knows" included, the sovereigntist campaign was consistently 6 points ahead going into the referendum, which they lost by 1 point.
There will always be a swing back to the status quo in an actual referendum. But as another can't realistically happen for 10-15 years, at least, then all of this is kind of moot - like predicting the 2020 general election based on polls from 2005.
In Quebec, the Yes vote increased by ~10% in the second referendum.
DeleteI'd take that!
Yes, but for it to actually happen the polls would need to indicate a huge majority for yes (or 'leave the UK', as it will probably be next time). It looks like that isn't really possible. Even now, after years of this stuff, you're still behind.
DeleteThe polls were pretty poor in Quebec - probably due to methodology. The polls before our referendum were much more accurate (albeit still out by about 2-3%).
DeleteAnyway, we need Corbyn to build up a big Labour lead in polls, at least 50% or so to give Scots confidence that the Tories won't win again due to the shy Tory vote.
ReplyDeleteNot looking good though; mass front bench resignations already from Labour. Tories will be rubbing their hands.
Tory anti-Scottish warnings of SNP-Lab working together are already hitting headlines. That'll be the UK media message day in day out if Corbyn manages to stop any Labour split.
Not a good outlook if you support the union.
First of all,
DeleteAnti SNP != Anti Scottish. English tory MPs have sat alongside Scottish MPs for hundreds of years, no problem. It's the party and its ideology - not the country.
Secondly, the issues that will decide the next referendum - if there is to be one - will be economic in nature, as they were last time. Only, it'll be worse. The UK will have fully recovered from 2008 and North Sea oil will be all but bust - entailing negative tax revenues as profits vanish and decommissioning takes over.
So what's e.g. 'AJockalyspse now'?
Deletehttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3066185/It-s-Ajockalypse-Boris-warns-chaos-Labour-SNP-deal-mocks-Miliband-one-legged-millipede-goes-left-left-left.html
And polls show people in England are much more anti-Scottish than the other way around, notably English Tory voters (Panelbase for the English Times).
Aldo,
DeleteJust go away you troll. You are dangerously close to achieving your underlying objective, of destroying the quality of the comments section of this blog.
Skier, you were discussing the attitudes of the tory party - not the daily mail or voters in England in general.
DeleteAnon - chill out. I'm actually not here that often.
Aldo - Troll
DeleteJames,
ReplyDeleteWhat's your opinion on the impact of the Queen loving in the media when this poll took place?
Thanks for this James. When I saw the first tweets put on by Times journo it seemed obvious there was a huge amount if spin & leading questions. I asked her but funnily enough she hasn't responded
ReplyDeleteThey are going to go thru the same biased anti independence crap before any future vote. You need a solid 5 point led in polls with with the biased leading questions before you can win a referendum. They will pull the whole queens visit/ royal wedding/ baby/ anniversary crap every time. The BBC serious journalists will call people who get 57% "devisive" and conservatives who get 37% " popular leaders with a Desisive mandate" as long as they keep giving them obe's or whatever you call them when they retire.
ReplyDeleteAt least you can spell OBE.
DeleteThe last three polls have shown a good yes lead and one a tie. Why would the trolls ignore the 2 yes leads and clutch at the within the margin of error poll.
ReplyDeleteSeems there are a lot of worried unionists. Yes and the SNP and by association Scotland. Was supposed to curl up and die under a union flag, after the no vote.
Didn't quite work out that way. I would love to go into a short referendum campaign based on these polls. Whatever way it's spun. There has been a steady move to yes since last year.
One of the yes leads is margin of error - a lead of 5 points, with an error of +/- 3%.
DeleteBut the real story here is the long term one. No dominates the vast majority of opinion polls, with no sign as yet of a Yes breakthrough.
Aldo - Troll
Deletealdo = troll = fuckwit.
DeleteI seem to have a little puppy (or two!), following me around.
DeleteHere, lick my unionist boots - and then salute that picture of Her Majesty over there. Good little dog....
Yeah, you would probably get off on that yah weirdo.
DeleteDon't rise to the bait from that troll Ando. I put my faith in Scottish Skiers analysis he was telling it how it was during the referendum when the unionist pollsters had No about 20 points ahead. I don't know why that clown comes on here. Whenever the second referendum is called Yes is in a far better position than last time when they started with about 20% and not the near par if not the lead now.
ReplyDeleteSkiers logic is that if you had 30% support at the start of the indyref campaign and ended up on 45% support in the vote itself, then by the end of the next campaign you should be cruising happily at 60% with a yes vote in the bag.
DeleteIf you believe in a world where everything is linear, this makes sense. In other words, if you're a 5 year old :0)
Aldo - Troll
DeletePossibly a troll, but most certainly not the sharpest tool in the box.
DeleteJust a tool.
What were the percentages for indy 3 years ago?
What are they now?
Read em and weep tosspot!
You are Mick Pork and I collect my 10 pounds!
DeleteUnfortunately, you cannot rely on anything like the swing in Yes support from start to finish in the last IndyRef. For one thing, the campaign won't be 2 years again. For another, we have already converted all the low hanging fruit to Yes. The remaining fruit is really high up and deep within the thorns.
DeleteThe vast majority of the media are still slavishly, rabidly unionist and deeply, unfairly hostile to Yes and any parties of Yes so our ability to get information out is still hampered. Those hard to reach voters are not reading The National or HoS. A visit by a canvasser can only do so much, then they turn the telly on or go online into their unionist echo chamber (we all live in some form of one) and your visit is eroded.
Sorry to be on a downer, but it will be hard work next time. More time, much more, spent campaigning and less, much less being triumphant and gleefully happy in rallies. They were a mistake.
And we will need a separate get the vote out machine that is not run like the SNP's (which is what the Yes Campaign used). We need to be inside multis and past entry systems before they shut off at 12 in the schemes. We need loudspeaker vans driving round those areas reminding people, first thing, lunchtime, after school. Though I don't know why we don't hold it on a Saturday.
Elections etc in NZ are always on a Saturday. It is much easier if you have a family, more people are available to help. A carnival atmosphere prevails, turnout is much higher in NZ.
I have to agree with your analysis. The moment I saw the YouGov poll I realised you had likely called it right in your previous post. I'd also like to add that I've been a member of YouGov for several years now, and I have never been asked the type of questions they are now reporting. I have long suspected their results are often what the client wants to hear.
ReplyDeleteTories seem really chuffed by the Corbyn win.
ReplyDeletePolls going to be very interesting. Essentially, we're back in the early 90's. Labour need to get 50% polling and offer devo max to have a hope of staving off indy like they did with devo mark one.
Must admit I was surprised at how quickly we'd go back to Yes ahead on average. I mean that's the inevitable result of a Tory majority, but within just a few months is impressive. Could be very high Yes in a couple of years once the Tories have screwed the economy like the disaster they made of things last time (12% unemployment, black Wednesday etc).
At what point does your rolling average start and how many polls does it take in? :0)
DeleteProf C of What Scotland Thinks method.
DeleteAldo - Troll
DeleteI think anon has flipped. Got himself all built up over those yes leads and then BOOM - the boys are back in town! :0)
DeleteThe nine point lead for yes is probably what swung it. But it's one poll, unweighted by ref vote, conducted by old fashioned methods and absolutely an outlier. An average heavily influenced by one dodgy result is not a reliable average - but statistical nonsense. Like putting you, me and Alan Sugar in a room and saying our average earnings are 3 million quid.
Nope. Just fed up with your nonsense.
DeleteJust want to make it clear to all what you are.
Engage with the "nonsense". Argue against. Debate. If you can't do that - or refuse to - you are guilty of 'trolling', the very thing you accuse others of.
DeleteI know you would prefer a nationalist circle jerk. Welcome to the real world. People disagree with you (shock horror!)
impressive. Could be very high Yes in a couple of years once the Tories have screwed the economy like the disaster they made of things last time (12% unemployment, black Wednesday etc).
Deleteblack Wednesday etc - ah, you mean, ERM, the precursor to european monetary union, which the SNP used to so enthusiastically support?
Aldo,
DeleteI have engaged with you plenty of times before. Your tactic is to ignore when you are wrong and change the subject.
Recently you have taken to just quoting outright lies and nonsense.
Hence the term, troll. This suits you perfectly.
Which "lies and nonsense"? Quote them. Disprove them.
DeleteAs a political scientist that actually has done polling I can tell you that most polling done now has a new flaw. We have a historic error interval of 5% that we haven't changed. We have a margin of error that goes both both both sides. Usually 2 to 5 percent. Over time keen observers added compiling multiple polls to further accuracy. But no one has adjusted for all these extra polls with varying methods. Or the effect that the public has gone from a rarely called voter who is thrilled to be called and lives close to where they were raised or lived for a long time with similar friends and family.now we are in a world where people are polled a lot and I at least think the poll results are pushing the voters. Particularly the undecided swingy voters that regularly vote. Yes is likely now on a slow, gradual rise where some of the late breaking "no" voters are moving to tentative "yes". Who you reach of those 5% is being driven by unintentional polling taker error. You all need to chill out a bit.
Delete@Aldo What do you meant the SNP are doing badly with roads and policing? Firstly the latest Ipsos results show greatest satisfaction with SNP policy on Education, policing, health and the environment.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/scotland-opinion-monitor-august-2015-charts.pdf
Secondly. The A9 is being dualed by the SNP as we speak.
The SNP have finished improvements to motorway links between central belt East and West.
Policing figures just released show crime rates down to 1974 levels.
Is this site so obsessed with polling that you believe a popular belief is, automatically, also correct / accurate. Education is a mess - the new courses not worth the paper they are written on. Standards of literacy and numeracy are appalling. The police force is a mess that can't handle its workload - deaths have occurred because of this. Scotland tops a UN league table for violent crime - double the levels of England and Wales. 1 in every 100 people were assaulted last year in Scotland. That's shocking.
DeleteDualling the A9 is good but the thing has been a death trap for years. Why wasn't it done in 2007? Again, people are lying dead just now, due to SNP inaction / incompetence.
Why it wasn't done in 2007 is that the opposition parties ganged up on the SNP in Holyrood and defeated their proposal to cancel the Edinburgh trams. That money would have been used to dual the A9.
DeleteSome of us were actually paying attention back then.
And what of the approx 1 billion the SNP has failed to spend in Scotland since 2007 - couldn't some of that have been used?
DeleteThe SNP is now reaching the point, thankfully, where it owns its own screw ups. They can't blame it on anyone else - Jack McConnell, Tavish Scott and co being an increasingly distant and fading memory.
You need to talk to John Swinney about general budget priorities. I answered your specific question as to why the road wasn't dualled in 2007. Because the other parties insisted the money be spent on the Edinburgh trams.
DeleteWhy did Labour send several million quid back to London because it couldn't think of anything to spend it on? Why didn't they use that to dual the A9 and save all these lives?
That's what the SNP have been doing. They've sent back a BILLION in the last eight years - during which time the Scottish Labour Party's power in Scotland has been limited to deciding how often the bins get emptied in certain areas.
DeleteYou cannot keep blaming other parties. Take ownership and take responsibility.
Surely becoming independent would be taking ownership and responsibility
DeleteAldo talks nonsense, just ignore him. He'll implode eventually.
DeleteThe new courses? What exactly are you talking about?
DeleteJust because you state the police force is a mess, that doesn't make it so. Crime is down to 1974 levels.
Referring to that car crash tragedy as a measure of the whole system is classic use of exception to prove rule and utter nonsense.
These stats from 2012 indicate your arguments about scot violent crime vs rUK are bollocks.http://www.civitas.org.uk/crime/crime_stats_oecdjan2012.pdf
And to suggest that the SNP actually getting on and doing something like dualling the A9 after decades of need and death etc just because you feel they could have done so in 2007 is so childishly spurious, it is hardly worth commentary.
You are a ridiculous troll
Going by recent events / poll results, looks like its the nationalists who are imploding.
DeleteThe nationalists' former leader said that Police Scotland "must be broken up".
DeleteThe chief of Police Scotland said the force was "on its knees".
Our crime rate is double - DOUBLE - that of the UK. You have a 1% chance of being attacked or sexually assaulted in any given year in Scotland. Explain why that is, please.
The new courses I referred to are the new "Curriculum for Excellence" (a misnomer if ever there was one) courses that have replaced external examinations with internal assessments for many secondary school pupils. No one fails them - no one. Answer me why that is?
I think I am perfectly entitled to ask why the SNP didn't fix a death trap for 8 years despite having funds available to do so. Again, can you answer this point without hurling insults?
I think the SNP blinds with nationalism - an emotive and compelling subject for many, who are then unable - or unwilling - to recognise SNP incompetence, corruption and malice.
It is the SNP that needs to take ownership and responsibility for its own actions in government. The Scottish people have voted no to independence. We still take ownership and responsibility, but as a greater United Kingdom. The SNP has to acknowledge and respect this.
DeletePanelbase poll on Gerry Hassan twitter feed;
ReplyDelete2m: #Panelbase poll #SP2016 constit vote:
SNP 52%
Labour 23%
Con 14%
LD 6%
Greens 3%
UKIP 2%
Looks like Sturgeon's rendition of God Save The Queen went down like a lead balloon with the Irish Republican element.
DeleteHmmmmm, interesting thought.
Delete"Irish Republican element."
DeleteWhat does this even mean? This is Scotland, and the SNP are not a republican party. So, are you talking about Irish people, people who want an Irish republic, Irish people who want a Scottish republic, or vice versa? And "element" of what?
If you insist on being provocative, do try not to be so ambiguous.
Provocative? Nope, just observing a sad reality of life in Scotland. There are people here who have a greater allegiance to Irish Republicanism than they do to the United Kingdom or even to Scotland. Their views are based on outdated sectarian beliefs, including hatred of the Queen for being a Protestant.
DeleteThere are people in every country who have a greater allegiance to a foreign state. So what?
DeleteLike many unionists, Aldo sees the possibility of a permanent decline in north sea oil revenues as something that will harm the independence movement. I actually think it poses a bigger challenge to the unionists.
ReplyDeleteIf we were to move to a situation where higher public spending in Scotland is consistently subsidised by English taxpayers due to low oil revenues there is going to be increasing pressure on Westminster to cut Scotland's funding down to levels more like those in England. But if that happens, we are no worse off independent and low oil revenues cease to be an argument against independence.
We've been heavily subsidised for years and it hasn't been an issue. The English only got a bit miffed when we started all this separation nonsense. Who can blame them?
DeleteLol, here we go with this nonsense.
DeleteAway you go and read the mail, troll.
Except that isn't true is it? Prior to the recent oil price slump, Scotland was consistently running a lower net deficit than the UK as a whole.
DeleteNot true. Prior to the slump, our deficit was nearly double that of the UK as a whole.
DeleteI'm hearing that the Panelbase poll also puts Yes at 47, No at 53 (No change from previous Panelbase poll).
ReplyDeleteSweet!
DeleteThe recent yes leads look increasingly out of kilter. Of course, that's what happens when you go with polling companies that are still steam powered lolol!
Very much following the slow drift to yes patten of yougov then. That's a gap closure of 10 points to 6 points over the course of this year. So all 4 polls showing steady movement to Yes. A sudden jump - which MORI and TNS alone might suggest - would be more likely random noise, but when you have all 4 polls showing movement to yes, then that trend seems likely.
DeletePOP averages would remain Yes in majority too.
Aldo, you seem to be trying very hard to convince yourself. What has so rattled you?
ReplyDeleteJason Allardyce @SundayTimesSco 27 mins27 minutes ago
ReplyDeleteMajority of Scots now think independence is inevitable, says new @Panelbase poll for @SundayTimesScot #indyref2
When all your family back indy in majority apart from your gran, you can understand why people feel this way.
It's quite likely gran will have "shuffled off " before Indy2.Its possible that her children and grand children will persuade her to vote Yes in Indy2.It does,however,seem highly unlikely that she will be able to persuade her Yes supporting children and grandchildren that they are to inadequate to run their own country like everyone else does.
DeleteScottish skier, was wondering if I could send you some statistical stuff for you to look over and get your thoughts on.
ReplyDeleteAlan
Not sure how much help I can be; I'm an oil & gas production chemist!
DeleteJames probably still has my e-mail if you want to send him a message to get mine.
Hi, yes I remember you mentioned your involvement in oil and gas from Wings. Will email James. Thanks,
DeleteAlan
Aldo everyone,even you. Have a right to an opinion.
ReplyDeleteHowever not everyone has a right to have there opinion listened to.
Why is that you may say. Well there are two types of opinions. Informed and Ill informed. As you fall into the latter your opinion is fluff and not based on facts. It's like a scientist who concludes without studying the facts or worse discarding the evidence.
Your opinions are based on what you believe not what facts are being presented. After all this site is for analysis of opinion polls,not just naked opinions on what we believe. You have the Daily Mail for right wing bigoted opinions. You aren't going to win over any people on here. We are informed
Now some simple facts for you. Yes received 45% of the vote,last year. The worst opinion polls have Yes on 48% and the best on 54%. Which part of that is movement to No?
November, you are just having a wee rant here. Calm yourself!
DeletePlease point out which of my claims are false. You are generalising here but not focussing on anything in particular. Pick something - anything. Go on. What part of what I have said is not accurate?
Yesterday's and today's opinion polls put no on 52% and 53% respectively. I've got deja vu here - mid September, opinion polls showing narrow no lead.....
There was some movement to Yes in the ref. It has since stalled, despite the issue remaining a hot topic. It's looking like you've hit some kind of ceiling.
But here's the thing - even if you break that ceiling and get a poll showing a stonking great lead for Yes, it is no guarantee that anything is going to happen. This is the drawback of polling - it asks people to vote in a poll that is inconsequential, in this case, on a hypothetical sutuation that may or may not happen (and, if it does, not for several years).
Again, I refer you to a set of absolutely stunning polls in late 2006 that indicated a pro independence landslide if a referendum were to be held then. But we know the course of history following on from that. A referendum was held, eventually, and the yes to independence option firmly rejected.
Aldo all of your claims are false. Repeating them makes you look even dimmer than the original posts suggest you are.
ReplyDeleteQuoting a poll from 2006, 9 years ago is presenting history. In 2006 the referendum wasn't even proposed nor were the SNP in power!
Aldo all of your claims are false. Repeating them makes you look even dimmer than the original posts suggest you are.
ReplyDeleteQuoting a poll from 2006, 9 years ago is presenting history. In 2006 the referendum wasn't even proposed nor were the SNP in power!