Thank you to an anonymous commenter who has pointed out that I had the wrong Scottish subsample figures for the YouGov poll in the previous post. To be fair to myself, I was looking at the Wikipedia list of polls and an editor there must have directed the link to last week's tables by mistake. I was going to update the previous post to correct the error, but as a fair bit of what I wrote there no longer applies, I've decided to start afresh. Here are the correct numbers:
Reform UK 24%, SNP 23%, Labour 17%, Conservatives 13%, Liberal Democrats 12%, Greens 7%
This is the first time Reform have been ahead in a YouGov Scottish subsample, and doubtless some people will get very over-excited about it, but it categorically does not mean Reform are actually ahead in Scotland. Although YouGov structure and weight their Scottish subsamples correctly, the margin of error on any individual subsample is still enormous due to the tiny sample size.
It may well be that if a full-scale Scottish poll was conducted right now, Reform would be in a strong second place, but I very much doubt if they'd be ahead of the SNP. Still, this should be regarded as a warning shot across the bow, especially with the Hamilton by-election being so close.
What will the Daily Record do? Tell their labour followers better to vote SNP or allow Reform in?
ReplyDeleteThe Redcoat will tell its readers to shurrup n vote for the Labour man. It wis guid enough fur their grandfaithers.
DeleteAnon at 8.13pm You got it wrong. The Redcoat is going for the devolutionist SNP.
DeleteA shame it's not backing the ISP 😉
DeleteEven if just a sub-sample, the worst case for Reform is that they are equal to Labour or snapping at the heels of the SNP. While John Swinney may have stopped the ship from sinking, he needs to pump out the bilges.
ReplyDeleteHe needs to pump out the agenda brigades, starting with the gender lot, who have caused huge damage to both the party and to its core aim of Indy. I won’t be responding to the usual abusive aggressive posts from the gender brigade. If they can ever show themselves capable of civilised debate I and many others will listen. Violence and threats are not debate.
Delete100% correct
DeleteThis was a you gov poll Scottish sub sample just 8 days ago... I copied it from your own blog James! Hard to believe that in around a week that these figures could change so much
ReplyDeleteI commented on the previous post saying I couldn't really make a case for voting SNP despite being a traditional SNP voter.
ReplyDeleteVoting SNP to keep Reform out? It's a reason I suppose. Not very positive though is it? If they end up going with that as their core message for HR26 I won't be impressed. It'll be the Stop Brexit party all over again. That'll definitely have me staying at home. A very clearly defined pathway to indy, whatever it takes, however long it takes, if you please Mr Swinney.
If labour voters believe voting reform is the way to get social democracy then the same labour voters are not social democratic but right wingers with a red rosette.
ReplyDeleteWho owns the polling companies? The British, who owns the media? The British, who owns us? The British
ReplyDeletePolls exist to influence, not to inform, the same as the internet
It's Dr Jim the nicophant at 9.10pm who trashes polls except when they are good for the SNP.
DeleteIfs fae baurheid or the leafy suburbs of the Mearns?
Delete10.42 Are you planning on stalking him?
DeleteWeirdo at 10.42pm - I could live in Busby, Eaglesham, Clarkston, Neilson, Giffnock, Thornliebank, Uplawmoor or Netherlee as well as the two areas you mention. What's it to you where I live you weirdo.
DeleteYou could live in Barcelona or Bath. The world's your oyster !
DeleteAnon at 12.56pm - what's it to you where I live you weirdo.
DeleteAlthough this is just a subsample I keep on saying it, the SNP are losing so many votes because of their obsession for mass immigration into Scotland during a period when affordable housing is in crisis and they have stuffed any chance of winning Dumbarton with their disastrous interference on the Flamingo Land proposed development.
ReplyDeleteIncluding myself, the amount of people I know who have totally switched off from the SNP is incredible yet all your get from the fanatics online, you're a troll, unionist plant blah blah blah..
The masses of online support for the SNP sure as heck ain't being reflected in the polls.
My mother is currently in a nursing home. I dread to think what would happen if it were not for immigrants.
DeleteRemember this is Scotland so I assume you are not wanting English or Irish here either.... how many generations are they to be not considered from an immigrant family?
The worrying thing is you'll read this and still think you are right.
It's a typical response and tired one. The worrying thing is you'll read your comment and still think you are right.
DeleteIt's your type of response that is pushing people into the clutches of Farage. Almost everyone with a shred of decency ain't opposed to immigration, however, its the sheer numbers coming over and the lack of housing. Immigration is at the top
of the list of peoples concerns but people like yourself just put on they stupid tinted glasses and come across as all high and mighty. That's the worrying bit!!
You mean pushing the hard of thinking to Farage. Anyone who votes for that con man needs to give their heads a shake.
DeleteEvery single party is losing votes hand over fist to reform. Until the snp tackles that head on we have a problem. People are just scunnered with the established parties including snp. Reform may well win many seats next year.
ReplyDeleteSays reform follower. I really hope the racist reform are soundly defeated.
ReplyDeleteDo you think the SNP will win thr by election?
ReplyDeleteI dont think...I know.
Delete