GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 26th-27th May 2025):
Reform UK 29% (-)
Labour 21% (-1)
Conservatives 19% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 15% (-2)
Greens 11% (+1)
SNP 2% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
Scottish subsample: SNP 28%, Labour 19%, Reform UK 18%, Liberal Democrats 15%, Greens 11%, Conservatives 8%
This is a new record in two ways - it's Labour's lowest vote share with YouGov since the general election (their previous lowest was 22%) and the 8-point gap also represents Reform's biggest lead so far in a YouGov poll (the previous biggest was 7 points). On the other hand, this poll is less unusual than the previous one in that it doesn't have the Liberal Democrats ahead of the Tories. In retrospect, that result may been an illusion caused by margin of error noise - although in the overall scheme of things the Lib Dems aren't all that far behind both Labour and the Tories and may have the opportunity to overtake one or both during the course of this parliament.
It's starting to look like there may have been some genuine slippage for the SNP in Scotland - albeit remember the evidence for that is limited to a string of Scottish subsamples from GB-wide polls which in total amount to the sample size of less than two Scottish full-scale polls, so plenty of caution is still called for. I can't think of any obvious recent event in Scottish politics that would have been a trigger, so if it has happened, my guess is that the explanation is simply that Reform support rose further after the English local elections and this time the SNP were affected by that tide. (That said, the Green vote is unusually high in a second successive YouGov subsample, so that's another possible explanation.) The timing is obviously not ideal with the Hamilton by-election just around the corner, but on paper at least, the SNP should still be ahead in Hamilton because they have a clear national lead, albeit possibly a smaller one than before. It's interesting that Professor John Curtice has been pouring cold water on the speculation about a Reform win in Hamilton and doesn't even think they're likely to finish second.
The irony is that a Reform win in Hamilton would arguably be a bigger catastrophe for the Tories than it would be for the SNP. As soon as Reform demonstrate they can take on the SNP and sometimes win, most of the remaining Tory voters may flock to them, which could be enough to reduce the Tories to virtually fringe party status.
UPDATE: There's an important correction to some of the information in this post, which you can read HERE.
It can't be long before Declan posts that 28% is a superb result for the SNP and that things have never been better for the SNP. Oh and no doubt he will say I am in tears at this great SNP success.
ReplyDeleteAnd you wonder why this whole forum thinks you are bonkers lol. Thanks for proving me right.
DeleteDeclan you have been proven to be wrong about everything. Yet you think you speak for the " whole forum". Delusional diddy sums you up.
DeleteIt can't be long before Declan posts that 23% is a superb result for the SNP and that things have never been better for the SNP. What a numpty you are Declan/Scottish Skier/Ross Anderson.
DeleteSo you're saying the SNP should win the by election? Will there be more polls before election day? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteI'm not saying they will win, I'm just saying on paper they ought to be ahead in Hamilton because they're clearly ahead nationally. But by-elections are bubble environments where momentum can start running heavily in one direction or another and produce unlikely results.
DeleteI can give you plenty of reasons why people might be disillusioned with the SNP. Here's the top ones:
ReplyDelete- The SNP have provided no direction whatsoever on how they will deliver Scottish Independence. Worse, they have abandoned the conference approach. They are making a mad gamble to think they will win an outright majority. They likely won't, and they'll need to work together with the Scottish Greens, whose electorate they've done a grand job at putting off to think of voting for them.
- Two-faced approach with Israel. Angus Robertson has lied to the Scottish public and held meetings with the Israeli. Swinney has only provided excuses for continuing to grant funding to arms companies which fuel Israel's genocide. History will not look kind upon meek cowards like Swinney on this matter. Perhaps the most telling thing is that he outright refuses to call Israel's actions a genocide.
- Swinney courted Eric Trump, not saying anything about what was discussed. He's a sellout.
- Recent actions which are unpopular, but not so much in the public eye. Letting Flamingo Land go ahead despite heavy opposition, being ready to let pensioners to freeze in the winter, thinking only Labour would be blamed (they backtracked on that).
- A more personal matter to me is the "reform" to religious education and studies in schools, where they make a complete hash of it. Probably too scared to upset the churches... If the school you study at teaches a certain religion, your child might be coerced into taking part against their will or better knowledge.
- Continuous half-baked work, which they then blame on others. The persecution of trans folk, which the SNP have gleefully abandoned. The broken promise on delivering land reform. Taking credit for the removal of the peak train fares, after they were the ones to ditch it in the first place based on selective evidence (not even going to mention that they take credit for the effort of others).
Having abstained in last year's GE I am considering whether I will vote for the SNP again at HR26 but I'd struggle to make a case for why I would. I want to but they don't make it easy.
DeleteNot voting last year was straightforward. The SNP had been a disaster for three years and Westminster elections don't mean much as far as progressing indy is concerned - oh how they've proved that, right enough!
But HR is different. Things for:
I like the Swinney / Forbes leadership. There isn't really any serious pro indy alternative.
Things against: They might possibly end up in some sort of coalition with the Scot Greens again. They've repeatedly proved that voting for them gets us no nearer to indy, in fact we're further away than a decade ago.
If it was tomorrow I probably wouldn't turn out but we'll see what happens over the next year.
I'm voting for the Greens on both ballots. I know voting on the constintuency for them is just a protest vote, but the SNP have given me no reason whatsoever to vote for them.
DeleteI will agree that the Greens could do much more to push for independence. Unlike the SNP, however, they have proven time and again that they want to do promote wellfare out of a genuine desire to do good.
Of course, as with anything related to politics, I encourage you to see what's near you and see if there's anything worthwhile to contribute to. I ain't going to tell you "vote this one", but I would encourage you to not disconsider the Greens so readily. They do more good then they are ever presented as, though they aren't perfect.
At the moment, it seems a forlorn hope, but I still cling to the possibility that something will turn around for Scottish independence.
Dr Jim says on WGD " I would still vote SNP if they had horns sticking out of their heads......". The classic party man is Jimbo. It disnae matter to him that the SNP have done nothing about independence and managed to make £600k raised for the promised Indyref2 disappear. Not to mention nothing happening on independence until everyone alive today is dead. That explains why Jimbo is such a nicophant. He only really cares about the party and his Nicola.
ReplyDeleteStill trumpeting on with your £600,000 patter. Get some new lines. I see you are not accusing N S of theft any more. Did the dog eat your dossier of evidence ?
DeleteAnon troll at 8.15pm seems to have forgotten that Sturgeon's husband has been charged with embezzlement. Sturgeon was leader during this time and was responsible. The only dossier of evidence was in your tiny mind - another made up lie.
DeleteI’m referring to your previous accusations against N S. I didn’t mention P M. Why are you? Straw man. At least it’s a change from your usual approach. And I see satire is beyond your comprehension. Off back to the village for you now. Grown ups talking.
DeleteAnon troll at 10.18pm since you are an idiot I'll repeat it again for you.
DeleteSturgeon was leader of the party when the funds went missing. Her husband who reported to her was SNP Chief Exec at the time and he is now being prosecuted for embezzlement. Sturgeon is on video telling the SNP NEC that there is no problem with the accounts. Sturgeon herself was reported to the COPFS regarding her involvement in the money going missing.
If you think that makes Sturgeon completely without blame then you are a nicophant. Sturgeon for once did the right thing and resigned as leader. She should have been expelled from the party but instead they sent her flowers. She got flowers for being at the centre of the biggest scandal to hit the SNP and causing the SNP to lose thousands of members and voters. See the polls you blockhead.
There is nothing " grown up " about you at all.
IFS fighting yesterdays battles.
Delete12.22pm what are todays battles?
DeleteAnon at 12.22pm has no clue about any battles. No clue about much in general. He just likes posting snidey one line comments.
DeleteWhat parties are the main contenders in the byelection? I mean with a chance of winning?
ReplyDeleteRob here, Robin McAlpine's latest touches on the Hamilton by-election. I think you both share one opinion of the likely outcome - despite the demotivation and scunneration of SNP voters who may yet stay away in droves.
ReplyDeleteI would very much like to know who supports Reform in Scotland.
Ash Regan
DeleteYou would always vote for the britnats if the snp was standing
ReplyDeleteWho are you talking to? IFS?
DeleteDr Jim at 6.42pm try and post your snidey one liners in the right place. You are confusing anon at 7.22pm. Your devolutionist SNP is now at 23% Jimbo in that Yougov poll. That's down to you Jimbo and people like you supporting the phoney independence leadership of Sturgeon,Yousaf and Swinney.
DeleteOops sorry Jimbo I forgot you don't believe any poll unless it is a very good one for the SNP.
The inability to punctuate implies an erratic, chaotic mind (possibly psychotic) in which ideas, thoughts and passing fancies run amok and vie for space in a morass of confusion.
Delete