Scottish Parliament constituency ballot voting intentions (Survation / Diffley Partnership):
Labour 22% (-1)
Reform UK 14% (-3)
Conservatives 13% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+1)
Greens 5% (+1)
Alba 1% (-)
Regional list ballot:
SNP 28% (-1)
Labour 22% (+2)
Conservatives 16% (+3)
Reform UK 12% (-4)
Greens 10% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 9% (-)
Alba 2% (-1)
The setback for Reform UK in this poll may look surprising, but the previous Survation poll did stick out like a sort thumb as unusually favourable for Reform, so the new figures may just be a case of margin of error noise rectifying itself.
From memory, I think the previous Survation poll was the one for which the Diffley Partnership did a seats projection that raised a lot of eyebrows, because it had Alba somehow winning a seat despite being on only 3% of the list vote. As far as I can see there's no seats projection attached to today's poll, but as Alba are only on 2% this time I can't believe that any projection model would have them winning any seats at all. This is what the most popular online predictor suggests the poll would translate into -
SNP 57, Labour 25, Conservatives 17, Reform UK 12, Greens 10, Liberal Democrats 8
That would put the SNP and Greens in combination on 67 seats, slightly higher than the 65 seat target for an overall majority. Admittedly that's still a bit close for comfort as far as retaining the pro-indy majority is concerned, but it wasn't that long ago that this kind of projection would have looked like dreamland territory.
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 49%
No 51%
For my money, that's a pretty decent result on independence, because at least in recent times Survation haven't been particularly known as a Yes-friendly pollster. And the data tables are really interesting, because (and this is not the norm) the turnout filter is flattering the No side. Before likelihood to vote is taken into account, 418 respondents say they would vote Yes to independence and 419 say they would vote No - an almost perfect tie.
* * *
More details and analysis will follow soon, but in the meantime you can read my preview of the English local elections at The National.
Government ship, back on course.
ReplyDeleteThe course is the same as ever. It's the iceberg that's melting.
DeleteWhere did all the Yes voters go? That's Swinney's problem. He neither excites the indy base nor wins over unionist voters. He's very lucky that England is in a meltdown, which is sinking Starmer before our eyes. By rights, the SNP should be where they were last summer.
“By rights”? What does that even mean? People want to see competence and feel confidence in government. J S is beginning to help them do so. He does however need to ramp up the Indy push in time for the election next year. Now is too early. Voters have short attention spans. The Indy tomorrow brigade need to go live in the real world, not in an online bubble.
Delete"People want to see competence and feel confidence in government. J S is beginning to help them do so"
DeleteTbh it's probably more that the incompetence at Westminster is overshadowing the incompetence at Holyrood.
If you look at the polls the SNP haven't actually moved a great deal, Labour has just been in freefall and Reform are capitalising on people being fed up with all the establishment Parties (without actually bothering to campaign in Scotland or appoint a Scottish leader yet).
Swinney and Sturgeon have had multiple advantages regarding useless opposition like Trump and Truss but done nothing regarding independence. Why should we think he will do anything when Farage takes over.
DeletePut Independence on ballot paper and you will get another 2% pro.
ReplyDeleteUnoriginal. Celine Gottwald has been saying this for years. As echoed by Dolores Inverarity and Carole-Anne Puffnidge. Dr Adalbert Moga has added music to the lyrics in a rhapsodic ecstasy whilst Beauregard Nimmo and Constantine Mudge have adapted the entire ensemble in post-modern interpretive dance.
DeleteYou shouldn’t have bothered
DeleteImagine how irate IFS will be after this result!
ReplyDeleteThe main difference I always noticed between Norstat and Survation compared to Find Out Now is that they weigh results by the 2014 referendum. I also notice there's always too many 2014 yes voters in the samples that always need to be corrected back to the 44.7/55.3 split. Either people who support independence always are more likely to take part in polls or false recall after 11 years is becoming an issue. Plus surely after a decade of demographic changes people who voted in 2014 may no longer split 54.3/44.7?
ReplyDeleteIt's all just a Sham.
DeleteALBA have slipped from almost certainly not winning any seats to definitely not winning any seats since Big Chris McEleny was so poorly treated by the party.
ReplyDeleteChris McEleny, top lad. Friend of the blog.
DeleteWell he has a blog, if that's what you mean. Talks about himself in the third person. We worry for him, poor chap.
DeletePoll after poll shows that Chris McEleny is a mad dog 🐕 who needs to be tamed.
DeleteAgreed. The sheer consistency of the polling evidence that McEleny is a mad dog cannot be denied.
DeleteZzzzzzzzzzz.
Delete10.17 what a pratt.
DeleteAnd now for something completely different:
ReplyDeletehttps://cpstest.io/f1-reaction-test
Your best: 00.227
Delete00.219 but generally about .230
DeleteOnly with an outright majority for one Party can we progress independence. The SNP & Greens have a majority right now & it's not enough. The SNP need to repeat 2011 for any hope.
ReplyDeleteNice try, KC.
DeleteIt needs an outright SNP majority without the Greens AND the SNP to be genuinely 100% committed to Independence as number 1.
DeleteThe Greens have Independence as about 285th on the list of priorities. Out of 286.
Alba now on life support.
DeleteYi2. What drivel.
DeleteLook up Janforindyref2, there are people who genuinely believe this.
DeleteWhere is this list YIR2? Can we see it? You made it up? More lying from YIR2. Same old same old. So sad.
DeleteIf you anons had half a brain between you it'd be lonely. And very scared!
DeleteAnon@11:00pm NOT KC.
DeleteWhat’s a weak catholic?
ReplyDeleteIt means if we don’t see you through the weak we’ll see you through the windae ☘️
DeleteStop being such a pane.
DeleteThe author says:
ReplyDelete"Before likelihood to vote is taken into account, 418 respondents say they would vote Yes to independence and 419 say they would vote No - an almost perfect tie."
Yes, that is quite correct.
But that is surely NOT good news as it indicates that those with YES sympathies may be more despondent about the prospects of actually restoring independent statehood and might effectively be saying "what's the point?"
Well if 'those with YES sympathies' adopt the despondent mindset - they adopt the despondent mindset and end up demoralising everybody else. Too much simplistic thinking that independence is just about there waiting to be won - when the country is still just as split down the middle as it has always been and the Yes movement thinks IT is the country - which it isn't. Refusal to accept that the Yes movement operating just within itself and not fully engaging with No voters gives some right to have independence given to us on a plate is why we get no further.
ReplyDeleteThe deliberate regurgitating of the immature tropes that the SNP are no longer for independence and are spending too much time on the day job is part and parcel of Yes not moving forward. All the scapegoating of the SNP as an excuse for the movement being self-obsessed and navel gazing and all the wee Yes generals trying to move Yes voters around their own self-interested populism based chess boards is counter-productive. All this rubbish that the SNP must do it for us - but at the same time waxing lyrical 'we dinnae want the SNP, they think the own the movement, they dinnae organise marches - but we dinnae want them at marches because we're the grassroots and we dinnae want the SNP politicians and they SNP members'.
It goes on and on like prisoners shuffling around the yard in the same old circle of demoralising intolerant 'oh I wish it was like 2014' killer nostalgia always in the past time-wasting grudge bearing gossip and innuendo mongering auld men in Labour backroom behaviours. Complete refusal to accept just how complex the landscape out in the real world is right now.
If people are saying 'what's the point' - then they're in quick fix gratification wonderland. We wanted independence because being a pithy devolved administration trapped within the UK governance model was always going to keep us catch'd. BUT - knowing that, there's this ludicrous expectation that that ScotGov/SNP can just magic that massive machine away and miraculously suddenly behave as if it has the resources in manpower and dosh and political freedom to just campaign for independence - and hey ho - we'll just naturally get independence. Because what - we independistas are so much more worth it than anybody else and we simply deserve it?
People have to get real about Holyrood 2026. We say we're the Yes movement and if we play the system, do this, do that - well, it's all about us. Circa 50% of the country still don't want us or anything to do with us - but we still talk the big talk as if we're top dog and all our little internal gripes, moans and constant scapegoating of the SNP and never stopping moaning on about the past. We're boring. We must be the most demoralising grassroots movement in Christendom and beyond.
Farage just wanders around and grins and smiles casual as a pig in shit - and that is attracting Scots who are sick fed up of moany Scotland. ScotGov are mired in the day job trying to trudge its way through trying to keep the country afloat in unprecedented times - and still the Yes movement moans and moans and moans at its different popularity personality factions - and that's what the country sees. Oh there goes that Yes movement whingeing on about the SNP again - so that must mean we were right about the SNP being bad for the country so we should all vote for unionist parties and maybe that nice smiley come on everybody Nigel Farage.
Struth! The movement needs to get over itself.
I'm just up and you provide some bed time reading!
DeleteYawn ...
Over 6 paragraphs and nothing constructive about what should happen now.
DeleteJust saying that "The movement needs to get over itself" isn't a plan.
I don't believe that Farage is that attractive to Scots.
Deletethe SNP have a cunning plan
Deleteits called a pension plan
and they plan to have a good laff at all you cunnts
Indy result skewed by 2014 weighting - a completely discredited practice. Here's Talking Up Scotland:
ReplyDeletehttps://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2025/05/02/yes-support-and-snp-lead-in-latest-poll-may-be-larger-as-dated-2014-weighting-of-the-sample-is-still-being-used/
It's funny how a survey is always 'skewed towards NO' or 'Unionist-biased' when the result isn't the one you wish for.
DeleteBut when the result is like the recent Find Out Now (56% YES) then it's 'deadly accurate, no caveats' hubris and 'here we go, here we go, here we go' hyperbole.
Who claims it is deadly accurate? Why are you incapable of posting without lying?
Delete10:11 AM:
DeleteTry again -
It's funny how a survey is always 'skewed towards NO' or 'Unionist-biased' when the result isn't the one you wish for.
But when the result is like the recent Find Out Now (56% YES) then it's 'deadly accurate, no caveats' hubris and 'here we go, here we go, here we go' hyperbole.
Anon at 11.14. You are not the brightest are you? Answer the simple question and stop lying.
DeleteAnon at 12.06 PM:
DeleteWhose "Anon at 11.14"?
Whose "Anon at 11.14"?
Delete@Anon 9:40am. Funny how the 'Find Out Now' obtained 56% YES by NOT applying the now utterly discredited 2014 weighting and when you remove that obsolete weighting from the Survation OP, YES reaches 57%. Aye - funny that!
DeleteFact is - demographics over 11 years has utterly changed in Scotland. Over 500,000 older (approx 75% of which would have been NO voters in 2014) have popped their clogs to be replaced by the same number of younger YES voting Scots (approx 75%).
If you think the demographics now are exactly as they were 11 years ago you are just plain delusional. Or thick.
4.29 PM
DeleteFunny how the average Q4 YES support in Q4 2014 from 5 polls was 50.4% and the average from 6 polls in 2015 to date is 49.5%.
So flat-lining.
Or, as you and twats like you might say, YES is 'surging', 'soaring', 'shooting', 'sky-rocketing' etc.
Congratulations to Farage. He's a hideous and hateful little man, but the English clearly love him. Didn't he do well!
ReplyDeleteIt's time for Scotland to face the fact that he will be the prime minister in four years time, no matter what we think or say. Only actions speak. We need out of this union, urgently.
John Swinney: what are you going to DO about it? Have some more tea and scones with Labour?
John Swinney: No need to rock the horses, just maintain the status quo. Things will work themselves out in the end.
Delete“We need out of this union, urgently “
DeleteAbsolute bullshit!
Get a grip.
Hey KC, you're looking forward to Farage treating you like a thankless little native, aren't you? Make good on your promise and take a hike.
Delete@11:19
That's exactly what we're headed for, as obvious and yet as oblivious as Kamala and the hopes and dreams (and billion dollars!) that supported her in defeat. They see it coming, but their whole sense of identity paralyses them from taking avoiding action. They just freeze, startled in the headlights of the truck…
Here's the only "plan" that will save us from that English Nationalist juggernaut. REMOVE John Swinney and his cohort. Get the SNP back to speed on INDEPENDENCE. Scots won't vote for anybody else.
“Get the SNP back to speed on independence. Scots won’t vote for anybody else”
Delete🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
You're a Brit, KC. Of course you'll vote for someone else, someone with butcher's aprons on their knickers. I was referring to Scots.
DeleteSo you think all Scots support independence???
DeleteWhat planet are you on??
I think the long confusion of identities: Scottish and British, will become starkly clear when an English Nationalist government seizes control over us.
DeleteBrits will grin and bear it. Scots won't.
(Nor will they vote Alba, ISP, Peter Bell, or any other fragment of the movement. That's why it's crucially important that the SNP wakes up from its ten year coma.)
I didn't vote for the SNP in 2024 either. But consider this for a moment: who knocked shite out of them last year? Labour did. Who's dropped down the polls faster than any other government on record? Labour. So who exactly is in any fit position to take on Farage now?
DeleteLabour didn't knock anything out of anybody, stupid people in Scotland voted for Labour and SNP voters just didn't turn out to vote
DeleteEverybody knew Starmer was lying, the Scottish crawlers didn't care as long as they could get rid of the SNP
I mean isn't that what the Alba's wanted? well they got it
Nigel Farage should cram it in a camembert
ReplyDeleteStrong performance by Reform so far.
ReplyDeleteRemember the SDP? Flash in the pan. Flush down the pan.
DeleteA volte-face from the Scottish Govt: it's dropping plans to bring forward a Misogyny Bill before the end of the parliamentary term - instead will add the protected characteristic of sex to the Hate Crime Act 2021
ReplyDeleteA suggestion it fought tooth and nail against at the time. The conversion therapy ban bill is also dropped but will be in the SNP's manifesto for next year's Holyrood elections if engagement with the UK government for a Bill covering England, Wales and Scotland ends in nought.
Why are the SNP pushing for a UK wide solution on conversion therapy? Aren't they the Party of Independence?
DeleteAlso... isn't Health devolved?
Is Conversion Therapy when we hit them until they write with the right hand, like adults, or when we douk them to see if they're witches?
DeleteWith a name like that, it doesn't sound good. Which is the trick, in politics…
@1:28. The Scottish Devolutionist Party is committed to harmonisation across the nations of our Preciousss Union and indeed to UK re-entry to the European Union when our brothers in the south regain their composure someday. It'll be simply spiffing.
DeleteAnon @ 1.24
DeleteAn imaginative interpretation of the situation
Anon @ 2:02 PM
DeleteHow so? Is anything incorrect?
1.31 - IfS's wee brother.
DeleteThe management of health is devolved but the finance to do it is reserved
DeleteI do wish people would stop going around perpetrating Alex Salmond's egotistical myth that the Scottish executive is a government just because he stuck up a sign over the door
Scotland is a colony owned by England, we're not in a union, never have been, never will be, we are a subservient land just the same as all the other lands at the time of the British empire except even less than them because we don't have the guts to start Fkng up the English and throwing them out of our country like all of those countries did
What a numpty@4:41pm!!!!
DeleteStop spouting bullshit!
J S continues disarming the whole gender shambles quietly. The perpetrators still have to be ousted, but all in good time.
ReplyDelete