GB-wide voting intentions (Find Out Now, 12th February 2025):
Reform UK 29% (-)
Labour 23% (-2)
Conservatives 21% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 12% (-1)
Greens 9% (-1)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
Scottish subsample: SNP 34%, Reform UK 25%, Conservatives 13%, Labour 12%, Liberal Democrats 9%, Greens 6%
As the data tables are already available, I've given you the Scottish subsample numbers for the sheer hell of it, but bear in mind that non-YouGov Scottish subsamples are unlikely to be statistically reliable.
This is the biggest lead Reform UK have ever had in any poll from any pollster, although interestingly they've achieved it while remaining on a static vote share - remember this week's More In Common poll also suggests a more or less static picture for Reform, so it remains to be seen whether the bandwagon is still relentlessly rolling.
23% is not quite a post-election low for Labour - they've been on both 22% and 23% in previous Find Out Now polls, but not at a time when Reform UK were as high as now - hence the record-breaking Reform lead. Now that Reform have pulled away from the pack somewhat, it's probably a good moment to attempt a seats projection and see just how close Farage is (or isn't) to an absolute majority. Drumroll please...
Reform UK 269
Labour 141
Conservatives 106
Liberal Democrats 60
SNP 46
Greens 4
Plaid Cymru 2
Others 22
That leaves Reform a hefty 57 seats short of a majority, but on those numbers there's no plausible permutation that doesn't put Nigel Farage in 10 Downing Street. Even Labour and the Tories in combination don't outnumber Reform. Ah, the joys of first-past-the-post.
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RefUK ahead by 6%. Flippin’ ek! The Permanent State will be knitting a wee hat tonight through the medium of posterior agitation.
ReplyDeleteStarmer will bring up the need to have PR.
ReplyDeleteI'd be amazed if he did that.
DeleteThere are some scurrilous rumours that Reform UK are making inroads with the 16 to 18 vote in Scotland.
ReplyDeleteIf Reform keep averaging up half a point a month they will be well set up for a full assault on the SNP vote for 2026!
So once it was ALBA now it’s Reform trolls.
DeleteBe aware folks Dave Francis will be very angry soon!
ReplyDeleteYou can sneer all you want but millions of non EU people have arrived (that we know about) since brexit. Good or bad this has fuelled the idea British, Scottish, English, welsh (call it what you like) identities in ordinary towns (outside London and the usual 'multicultural' places) is under intense and rapid demographic change. Many left of cente people think it's too much too quickly.
ReplyDeleteYeah not sure the people have got what they voted for since brexit in this regard. It wasn't the French the people were voting to curtail.
DeleteSneer at racists. You betcha.
DeleteRather massive gap between not wanting immigrants and concern of having an equivalent of a Bradford town in Scotland.
DeleteIndicative of the excellent work John and Kate are doing as SNP leaders.
ReplyDeleteThey are truly fabulous.
DeleteIFS raging lol
ReplyDeleteWhy or are you just some sort of strange person who just posts rubbish.
DeleteInteresting piece by Jon Allsop in Guardian on a more low key revival in democratic politics in America. There is a parallel to be drawn with the apparent recovery in SNP fortunes in Scotland. Hope springs eternal. The SMAN.
ReplyDeleteThey've just lost 16% of the vote in the latest by election.
DeleteWith only a 26% turnout, pal.
DeleteYou cannot 'extrapolate' much from that.
Anon at 7.27. You haven’t read the piece I refer to, have you? Snidey wee one liners from SNP haters contribute nothing. But no doubt you are a strong supporter of Indy?
Delete