Labour 24% (-1)
Conservatives 22% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 16% (+2)
Greens 8% (-1)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
Scottish subsample: SNP 39%, Labour 17%, Conservatives 15%, Reform UK 14%, Liberal Democrats 10%, Greens 4%
I hate to disappoint our resident Reform-supporting troll, but in one key sense Reform are not AfD - they are not popular with the young. The poll shows just 9% of 18-24 year olds would vote Reform, compared to 30% of over-50s.
And in spite of the hype about Reform's breakthrough in Scotland, support for the party north of the border remains only half of what is being seen in both England and Wales. One very simple explanation is the continuing massive correlation between support for Reform and support for Brexit. Across Britain, 48% of Leave voters from 2016 are now in the Reform column, compared to just 6% of Remain voters - and of course in Scotland there are simply far fewer Leave voters than there are elsewhere in the UK.
Engerlandshire continues its mental decline...............
ReplyDeleteWhich we will suffer under, until our own leaders take action.
DeleteWhy don’t they?
When half the population still wants to be under that yolk, nothing i suspect
DeleteIt's almost as if Scotgov were somehow to blame for that…
DeleteNah, surely more of the same—bugger all—is the only way forwards!
Yes, because no other European country is showing any significant support for a hard right party of any kind. No siree....
DeleteNegative English exceptionalism is still exceptionalism. Try lifting your head above the fig of your own hatred and see that this is happening everywhere, and then try to work out why
Scotnats are under the yolk.
DeleteSomeone has been egging them on.
The YouGov average, across seven polls, since the start of the year has been: SNP 35.4 (+5.4); Lab 18.4 (-16.9); RUK 17.6 (+10.6); Con 12.0 (-0.7); LDm 10.9 (+1.2); Grn 4.9 (+1.0).
ReplyDeleteThe GB average has been: Lab 25.3 (-9.4); RUK 25.0 (+10.3); Con 21.6 (-2.8); LDm 14.3 (+1.7); Grn 8.7 (+1.8).
In Wales: Lab 26.0 (-11.0); RUK 24.4 (+7.5); PC 21.0 (+6.2); Con 14.3 (-3.9); Grn 6.3 (+1.6); LDm 6.1 (-0.4).
Scrub it!
DeleteIf you don't want to vote for the cosy managerial pocket-lining consensus then Refuk is the only serious option just now.
ReplyDeleteOf course, once it gets it's hands on power, it will be quickly sucked into that consensus, just as the greens before them were and prove to be just as incompetent, likely more so. But for now, it is the main way to register dissatisfaction with incompetent managerialism on both sides of the border.
RefUK’s candidate selection criteria stresses an employment history of real world experience. Private sector over Public sector and added bonus points for being self employed or a business owner. Whether you support RefUK’s policies or not, their elected representatives are likely to be more technically competent than the Greens (citation, Ross Greer, meep meep!).
DeleteWrong.
DeleteFascists are the answer to precisely nothing.
Get a grip.
Ta.
The majority would say it’s you needs to get a grip Francis.
DeleteAnon 11.21 England calling, England calling.
DeleteAnon 12.26 majority of nutters.
DeleteYou vote to be positive not to support right wing racism such as reform.
DeleteAnon at 11.21. Bit transparent, no?
DeleteReform are not fascists.
DeleteDafties aye but fascists nah
Reform are Fascist Shite.
DeleteGreat to see that Scots are not supporting them in anything like the morons South of the Border.
Keep that English Nationalist Shite where it belongs.
What are is your opinion on immigration, David?
DeleteDavid Francis, you spout some serious bullshit!
DeleteTrying living in a real fascist country before spewing that rubbish
DeleteLol.
DeleteJust LOVE the charred smell of poor, wee, insignificant 'Scottish' Reformers in the afternoon.
You are under the wrong impression people who disagree with you are Reformers, I'm a long standing snp supporter . I simply think calling people fascists is a bit silly when they aren't.
DeleteAnon at 1.46.I suspect you have a naive understanding of how fascists present themselves to the general public. By the time the uniforms are on it will be too late for you.
DeleteAnon at 11.52. Farage has made a career out of sponging public funds for doing the sum total of SFA. His short time in non political employment did not prove successful. He is a lazy grifter, a liar and a drunk. If he passes the eligibility criteria anyone can.
DeleteRefUK have a Nigel Farage shaped problem in Scotland.
ReplyDeleteIpsos, Political tracker, February
UK net favourability; Keir Starmer -34%, Nigel Farage -16%
Scot net favourability; Keir Starmer -25%, Nigel Farage -33%
The apparent collapse in the Labour vote in Scotland is spectacular to say the least. The SNP took a hammering in 2024 but still polled over 30% in Scotland, only 3.7% behind UK Labour nationally and Labour won an historic landslide...Weird world of FPTP.
ReplyDeleteIt's also interesting as the SNP have pretty much stayed around the same level in the polls, still massively down from the highs and popularity they used to experience only a few short years ago.
DeleteUnder normal circumstances their polling would be seen as being dismal... but Labour have managed to shoot themselves in the foot so spectacularly the unintended consequence is the SNP likely to achieve electoral success again.
"It's also interesting as the SNP have pretty much stayed around the same level in the polls"
Delete"Staying around the same level" seems to be code for "increasing by a few points".
"Under normal circumstances their polling would be seen as being dismal... but Labour have managed to shoot themselves in the foot so spectacularly the unintended consequence is the SNP likely to achieve electoral success again"
DeleteYou're correct and this is exactly what happened in England. Tory collapse, Labour vote hardly moved and boom, electoral success.
But the difference is the SNP vote has moved. So he is, in fact, not "correct".
DeleteBarely, they haven't moved much beyond the margin of error.
DeleteI'm sorry, but that's utter tripe. Margins of error apply to each individual poll, not to longer-term trends.
DeleteAnon at 2.17pm
DeleteSorry, but that's factually wrong. Also known as a lie.
John Swinney has done a great job in terms of this opinion poll.
ReplyDeleteThe hope/expectation is that when campaigning begins for Holyrood 2026 SNP will make Independence central in its election aims. There is no real sign of that yet. There are some 500,000 votes waiting to be picked up. With a split in the right wing vote, and with targeted tactical voting, Indy could secure a strong majority. Is there anyone within the party able to seize the opportunity and turn away from the disaster of the last G E and secure a strong positive result in Holyrood next year. Forbes? And let’s see some confrontation. Use planning law and H and S legislation to stymie the grid development which will rob us of our renewably produced electricity and see it sent down south. That’s the hope. The fear is that SNP do SFA and the descent of Indy into an abyss continues.
ReplyDeleteAch, there's always Alba 😉
DeleteThe SNP will obviously do nothing. We know them for what they are now. All they're after is keeping their Holyrood seats, their Scotgov jobs, and the golden carrot of "indy tomorrow" to maintain their position indefinitely. Nothing will change that with the present cast in power.
DeleteBut as for the idea that there's a magic number of Holyrood seats for Yes parties that'll unblock the path to independence, when it was won by "strong tactical voting" like you said, meaning many fewer votes than the UK parties, well, do you need any more assistance with that problem?
Oh too be so negative. Who wants to be a britnat? Lower energy costs, look after waspi women, anti immigrants, pro brexits
Deleteits the hope that kills you
Deletesee the ibrox crowd
Anon at 1.34. Who suggested that there is a magic number? No one mentioned it except you. It’s a straw man.
DeleteAlright, 2:38, how does the seat number matter then?
DeleteI simply took the implied point (we all better vote tactically for Yes parties to maximise our overrepresentation in Holyrood because…) and put a sharper point on it.
But you're quite right, actually. Of course it achieves hee-haw. Just more cosy Devolutionists from our side of the aisle, and not theirs.
I very much doubt that Kate Forbes is against SSE and 'Scottish' Power selling their electricity. Quite the reverse, I think.
DeleteAnon at 2.42. So you actually agree with me? I think you are being a naughty boy. I set out my hope and my fear. I think it’s fair to do so.
DeleteAnon at 3.11. You are wrong, and spare me the Freeport and American nonsense. In the real world some degree of control over the freeport project had to be exercised to attempt to mitigate its impact. If you think giving the tories free rein to do what they wanted was a plan then you are part of the problem.
DeleteUpdate!
ReplyDeleteChristopher McEleny
58/100 nominations received
Across 20/20 Local Authority areas
Note: He had until Sunday to meet the threshold in order to be on the ballot.
The battle of the century, denied. What a disappointment.
DeleteIt’s almost as if bugger all anybody can even bide the man.
It's kinda funny.
DeleteNeale Hanvey met the threshold within 24 hours, Ash and Kenny met the same threshold for Leader within a day as well. Chris is only just over half way after a week.
What’s the threshold?
ReplyDeleteThe full 100/100 nominations across 20/20 Local Authority areas
DeleteNervous times for Mad Dog McEleny.
DeleteNo one actually cares. Alba are best ignored.
DeleteWas the 58 a blip?
Delete:)
It doesn't matter that Reform will likely do badly in Scotland, it's yet another English political party against independence lodging themselves in Holyrood
ReplyDeleteYet another English political party given all the media airtime and support against the SNP
That's the single reason anti SNP folk will vote for them, they don't care about policies because that's the only one that counts
Mind back when we were trying to actually win indyref? We made the case, or tried to, to everyone that would listen about what independence could do for all of us.
DeleteAnd it almost worked.
When independence isn’t being promoted, a lot of people are still firmly against it and vote accordingly. Swinney etc. would clearly rather talk about anything else under the sun, yet for good and bad Indy just won’t go away.
Failure to make the case is surrendering to the Britnat narratives you’re right to blame the media for keeping on the agenda. That’s why we are where we are: Scotgov is feart of Indy, but they can’t escape that’s the whole reason they are there. You just don’t get to be the SNP and pretend that Indy isn’t there.
Define "do badly"?
DeleteDespite not really bothering to campaign in Scotland yet the fact that they're on course to win a number of MSPs is remarkable.
As Reform are about the only credible protest vote, I doubt that they would appeal to many of the remaining SNP voters, who are probably staunchly pro-establishment (tartan version).
DeleteFor all of my life the 50’s, 60’s and the rest we could only dream of independence. It’s as close as it has ever been but yet the doubters the underminers continue to bleat and do the work of the Brit nats. Maybe that is all they have ever been.
DeleteAnon at 5.00 pm. We need to be realistic here. What is being done by SNP to push for Independence? If you can give up positive news and grounds for hope we will embrace it.
Delete@3:16
DeleteNot really bothering to campaign? They're never off TV.
Incredible there are still some prattling on about independence!
ReplyDeleteWhen will the penny finally drop with these people that it’s over?
It's not over, and it never will be until it's achieved
DeleteSounds like World Peace.
DeleteAnon@3:31,
Delete🤣🤣🤣🤣
“…………… until it’s achieved “
You are a deluded brainwashed fool!
1 side of the Brit Nat coin doesn’t get it ever. The best people to govern Scotland are the Scots. Here endeth the lesson.
DeleteAnon at 3.26. When will the penny drop that we are laughing at you and that you are a complete wanker? You are in your late fifties and still never had your hole. No wonder you are so frustrated.
DeleteAnon@6:00,
DeleteNationalist tosser.
Seek help!
Anon@6:00 is probably a Sturgeon worshipper, which would make him a pretty sad individual.
DeletePoor old 3:26 PM
DeleteShe seems to imagine the 2014 referendum was the end of something.
Wake wake, dopey. It was just the beginning.
Anon@8:02,
DeleteLOL 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
"Scottish subsample ...Liberal Democrats 10%": very encouraging polling for them, as is 16% GB-wide.
ReplyDeleteI can see a decent chunk of disaffected centrist Labour voters switching over to the LDs.
Alex Cole-Hamilton has shown a sureness of touch with the electorate.
DeleteHe's a fast bowler.
DeleteIf he asked to come to my wedding, I'd say **** ***, you ****** **** ** ****.
DeleteI never mince my words. (Only my skin tights, love. Ooh-er, matron!)
Is wings still hacked and compromised? There is a post about Independence and the possibility, or otherwise, of a referendum. Surely some mistake? Gender gender gender. Please send money to the rev.
ReplyDeleteWhat is certain is that the Scottish Tories are finished.
ReplyDeleteAnybody that seriously thinks independence is going to be achieved one day is even more deluded than a Nessie hunter!
ReplyDeletefarage has secretly gone muslamic and will make himself grand imam of the first english caliphate, to become the second state of a federal pakistan - small countries cannot thrive and need to be part of something bigger, like 1.5B muslims
Deleteinshallah
Most Nessie hunters are from foreign lands.
DeleteAnon 5.03 . Indeed , maist are foreign. They come frae England . Probably Britnats too.
DeleteI would like Nessie to attack James Kelly while he is taking a selfie beside a lake.
DeleteBut she probably thinks he would be p(h)ish food.
Witty comic genius. Oscar Wilde must be spinning in his grave.
DeleteJohn Swinney has been a very steady leader who has really turned things around.
ReplyDeleteHe deserves praise from SNP members and supporters.
John Swinney certainly has led SNP poll ratings up and in this poll we see the SNP more or less returning to the 40s. This places the SNP in a good position going forward.
DeleteIt’s only a Scottish sub-sample.
DeleteAir punched, delight with.
ReplyDeleteSNP ship back on course. An impressive turn around by Swinney and Forbes. Helped by hapless Starmer and non entity Sarwar, of course but considering where the SNP were when Humza departed this is a very good poll.
I still won't be voting for them unless they get serious about indy though.
Please name your preference
DeleteDon’t let perfect be enemy of good.
DeleteMy preference is mainstream except when I overindulge on Slowboat liqueur, then I'm anybodys!
DeleteInteresting -
ReplyDeleteAs Swinney's popularity steadily increases with us Scots, Sarwar, Starmer and Farage have seen theirs fall or remain in very negative territory.
As James frequently reminds us, those Leader Ratings are a good indication of future Party-Polling.
SNP also gradually increasing their vote share, it seems.
The Indy Vote looking remarkably healthy as well.
All in all, a much more positive picture than only a few months ago.
Nice.
John Swinney is highly regarded by ordinary people.
DeleteI am exceptionally ordinary and my regardings for Swinney are indeed of notable altitude.
DeleteJohn Swinney has shown leadership on poverty reduction by the SNP government putting in place strong policy measures in this space which have had measurable impact.
ReplyDeleteI can bet now that the SNP won’t poll anywhere near the percentage in this sub sample.
ReplyDeleteIn fact they will do much worse than current polling.
We will have a unionist Holyrood in 2026
These polls are to make the SNP complacent and the Indy movement static
But come this time next year the polls will have changed
I really have zero faith in polls concerning changes to Britain’s English rule over its colonies
DeleteI just always have had this strong, incredibly strong, overwhelmingly strong idea that none of these polls are carried out in a manner that is concerned with a result that ever shows anything different to what the UK of England’s Britishness wants
I do not agree.
DeleteI feel that the limitations of your vision are indicated by your failure to respond to this important post.
DeleteConstantine Mudge February 25, 2025 at 9:40 AM
Mention of a "housebrick" recalls my visit to Baron Steinfeld and his enchanting wife Sybille near Klagenfurt in the (mon Dieu!) 70s. Georg-Friedrich (the Baron) had recently purchased an antique Meissen centrepiece for the dining room which and had opened a charming bottle of sweet Ruster from his cellar. The sweetness was remarkable, enriching whilst in no way cloying (or dare I say, mawkish!). Upon my complimenting the glory of the wine, Sybille interject that is was her favourite Ausbruch. Georg-Friedrich, quick to correct his erring wife, responded 'Not "Ausbruch", my darling. In English we say "housebrick".
To this day I wonder if the Baron's 'correction' was committed in jocular mien.
What a pile of shite
DeleteI am saddened by the vulgarity on display at 8:08 PM (2008). I shall say no more but weep for the emptiness of Anonymous who felt the need to slide into crossness.
DeleteConstantine Mudge is the GOAT.
DeleteMusk's 'D.O.G.E.' is imploding.
ReplyDeleteWas ALWAYS gonna happen.
And yet, that complete cretin Sarwar wants to go down the same road here! -
"More than 20 Department of Government Efficiency staffers resigned Tuesday in a scathing letter that blasted how Elon Musk was running the operation.
The group of 21 said they refused to use their technical expertise to “dismantle critical public services” in a joint resignation letter obtained by the Associated Press."
It’s not imploding. It’s internal opponents are bailing, completely different.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteIFS happy Tuesday lol
ReplyDeleteWhy is it a happy Tuesday Declan? Is it because you have given up forecasting election results?
DeleteIt's Happy Hour again. (Don't believe him.)
DeleteJ Swinney is a great leader who inspires people He works hard and cares about his team He never gives up and always believes in success his energy and passion make a big difference People respect him because he is dedicated and strong
ReplyDeleteA remarkable man.
Starmer's mask has now been fully removed and he is looking as right wing as Trump and Farage. He is as big a phoney as Sturgeon was.
ReplyDeleteYou are a turd that stinks out this page.
DeleteWhat charming turn of phrase. You could almost be David Francis.
DeleteAnon troll at 9.36pm - aw shucks was it something I said that upset you.
DeleteMisogynists assemble, except no one is assembling for your hate filled agenda are they IFS ?
DeleteThey see you for what you are, a wee nothing troll that stinks out the internet with your sweaty underpants
1.06am is clearly an infantile Labour supporter with an obsession about sweaty underpants.
DeleteFrom a recent FOI request (probably from a Unionist Party or newspaper), Scotland's NHS has CONSISTENTLY been the BEST performing in respect of A&E and Cancer waiting time targets over the last 2-4 years respectively and is the best/highest NHS Staff wage provider by far, in the UK -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.gov.scot/publications/foi-202400417516/
Reform trolling or not.. it prompted you to think about it James and discuss! xxx.
ReplyDeleteGood response by the way, can see you put a bit of time and effort into that.
Not at all, it was pretty straightforward stuff that took about three seconds to check, but I suppose even that would have been too difficult for you to do yourself. And don't flatter yourself, I was posting about the Reform surge on this blog long before you turned up.
Delete