Thanks to Yesindyref2 on the previous thread for pointing me in the direction of an article suggesting Reform UK's Richard Tice has said his party would vote for Anas Sarwar to be First Minister after the next Holyrood election. Assuming he's been reported accurately, and assuming he wasn't going rogue by saying the first thing that popped into his head, this is a rare example of a comment by an opposition politician that really does change things, because it makes it significantly more likely that Sarwar will become First Minister. Although most polls recently have shown the SNP on course to remain the largest single party, they have also mostly suggested that Labour, the Tories, the Lib Dems and Reform UK would have a majority between them, so if Reform UK are on board for Sarwar, the only way that John Swinney (or Kate Forbes, or whoever) would be able to win the First Minister vote would be if the Tories and/or the Lib Dems abstained, or if Sarwar didn't stand at all.
But nominally becoming First Minister is only half the battle for Sarwar - other than adding a bit of glitter to his CV, it won't really count for much if he's then brought down within a few weeks or months. What Tice has said is really quite odd, because it reduces Reform's leverage in any post-election negotiations - it's effectively saying they will install a Labour government without any concessions from Labour at all, presumably as a virtue-signalling demonstration of British Nationalist ultra-purity. But the snag is that they're bound to hold Sarwar hostage after installing him on specific policy matters, so either Sarwar would gain a damaging reputation for being Farage's Puppet, or he would stand his ground and lose vote after vote, perhaps leaving his government looking non-viable, with the only remaining choices being to hand over to the SNP (who might have the strongest case if they're the largest single party) or to accept the inevitability of a re-run of the election.
And as Yesindyref2 pointed out, Tice's statement may ultimately be a problem for Reform UK too, because if it becomes widely understood that "a vote for Reform is a vote for Labour", some of the voters who have switched direct from SNP to Reform may start to have second thoughts. That could increase the chances of the pro-independence majority at Holyrood being rescued in 2026 against all the odds.
I’ll believe the 2026 pro-indy majority when I see it. I know you’re being hopeful, James, but that sounds a bit too much like Declan for me!
ReplyDeleteI'd have to check which one it was, but from memory there was a poll not too long ago that had the SNP and Greens in combination on 61 seats - just four seats short of a majority. So no, I don't accept I'm in Declan territory by suggesting it may just about be possible.
DeleteIt kind of looks like no party is going to run on independence or union anyway. None of the parties have the gumption to make radical changes so not investing much hope or despair.
ReplyDeleteYes. This is terrible. How can a country run without a government? Its IMPOSSIBLE people. Get real.
DeleteIt will definitely be messy after the election as with the possible exception of the Greens (and Alba but lets assume they don't win any MSPs) literally every other Party want the SNP out of power.
ReplyDeleteNone will risk a repeat of 2007-2011, giving the SNP a chance to run a minority Government effectively. There will be no good will or willingness to work on a case by case basis if there's a chance to remove them from power after 19 years.
Speculation. Not helpful.
ReplyDeleteAll right, I must admit the trolling is getting quite funny at this point. I'll leave this one up as a sort of monument.
DeleteWhich one is the trolling?
Delete"Speculation. Not helpful."
DeleteDidn’t take long James. We are disappointed in you.
Delete"We are disappointed in you."
DeleteOh good grief, who invited Queen Victoria to post here?
If the SNP do not go for a clear de facto referendum and stick with Both votes SNP as per 2021 they will probably ensure a Britnat controlled Holyrood in 2026. If that happens surely even the most thick as a brick SNP member will see the SNP leadership for what they truly are. Mind you some of them are even thicker than a brick and they will blame the independence supporters who didn't vote SNP.
ReplyDeleteSurely all supporters of independence have to get behind the SNP in 2026.
DeleteIt's like I put out a clarion call for the thick as a brick mob and up they pop.
DeleteWhy?
DeletePeople are attracted to people like them, so not that surprising.
DeleteDon’t stop at bricks. Be boulder!!!! :)
DeleteDoes IFS actually support Scottish independence? Last time I was on here there was a debate about the amount of "benefits" IFS was claiming.
DeleteAnon troll 8.16pm - lies and lies and lies.
DeleteThis troll is now talking to himself at 8.24pm.
Independence for Scotland at 4:38 is on the button. The small independence parties must form an independence alliance for the list. The SNP must encourage its supporters to give the alliance their list vote. That is the survival strategy for 2026. In preparation the SNP needs to free itself from the policies that have turned off as many as 0.5 million independence supporters and get back to competent government as practised pre 2014. I was an activist from 1964 until turned off by the actions of Nicola Sturgeon in sidelining the membership and gerrymandering the NEC. I worked as an election agent, was a branch treasurer, a membership secretary, attended candidates courses and was a Sturgeon supporter. I do know what I am talking about!
DeleteWhat type of brick IFS? I think you have probably head butted a few over the years judging by your lack of insight on all things. Have you tried night school?
ReplyDeleteYou would seem to typify the kind of brick IFS is talking about.
DeleteMaybe chest drunk. Haha!
DeleteYes ifs -stop talking to your self
DeleteDr Jim at 6.37pm surprised you have still got the mental capacity to post that many words at your age. You may talk to yourself I don't. Jimbo you are a nasty thug of an old man who has a history of assaulting women.
DeleteAnon troll at 5.01pm wants to know what type of brick he is. Answer - a lead brick - as dense as they come.
The trolls are certainly increasing in their sense of grandeur. They're now presuming to speak on behalf of the entire SNP (a party of tens of thousands of members) and telling me not to bother rejoining because I'm not wanted.
ReplyDeleteOK, when were you elected spokesman and what was your margin of victory?!
Probably 14!
DeleteJames - I have spoken to quite a few fellow SNP Members and, almost unanimously, they would back that.
ReplyDeleteWhether the 'inner sanctum' would agree, you will need to find out for yourself.
I would encourage you to make up your mind on the matter sooner rather than later, though.
Time would DEFINITELY appear to be of the essence now and time is maybe not on our side.
SNP flagship policies are massively popular with Scots, as per latest polling, so we seem to be on relatively safe ground there.
What we need is far more positivity about the benefits of both continued SNP Govt and Independence itself - and a clear understanding within the Party, that we CANNOT ignore the mainstream of our voters, just to accommodate fringe issues.
That is where your psephological skills could perhaps assist.
As an aside.......this site seems to have become a haven for a lot of second-prizes, misfits and general haters of the only political entity which has the crucial popular support (which NO other Pro-Indy Party can remotely muster) to help us get to our agreed goal.
Present polling also clearly shows that there is NO chance of SNP disappearing or imploding, in the same way as there is NO chance of them being replaced by Alba or any of the other similar tiddlers sometimes mentioned on here.
Get yourself back into the MAIN game, James - and stop paddling about in the inconsequential shallows.
Nobody believes all the stuff about re-newable stuff. It's all a big con
DeleteSNP flagship policy: let pensioners freeze to death until next year.
DeleteJakey is a Labourite.
DeleteAye -wee smelly. Labour supports the mega rich donors. Don’t give a toss about ordinary folk.
ReplyDeleteIt's in Reform's interests to ensure that constituencies are won by unionist parties, because that divides those parties' list vote - which makes it easier for Reform's candidates to get elected.
ReplyDeleteIt's an odd balancing act, because if they're too effective at this and the SNP loses too many constituencies, they'll be compensated with the same list seats Reform want.