It suddenly occurred to me a few minutes ago that I could listen live to the drama of the Irish general election exit poll reveal on RTE Radio, and although there wasn't a huge shock, there was a slight surprise, because Sinn Féin are predicted to top the first preference vote for a second time in a row - albeit that prediction is within the margin of error, because Sinn Féin are just 0.1% ahead of Fine Gael, with Fianna Fáil around 1.5% further back in third.
Bear in mind that Sinn Féin are a bit less transfer-friendly than the other two main parties, so even a slight lead in the popular vote may translate into them being slightly behind in terms of seats. But at the very least it looks like they'll retain rough parity with the traditional big two.
For most of the last five years, Sinn Féin have had a healthy lead in the polls, and some Scottish independence supporters have looked at that as a back door route by which we might make progress - ie. a Sinn Féin led government might take office in the Republic and demand an early referendum on Irish unity. That prospect fell away a few months ago when Sinn Féin support dramatically collapsed and they fell to a poor third place. I'm not sure why that happened - maybe they overplayed their hand on identity politics and lost touch with what voters were really looking for from them. But they've since rallied, and ended up with a middling result which is unlikely to get them into power right now, but will rescue their credibility and keep the flame burning for future years.
Fianna Fáil 19.5%
Labour 5.0%
Greens 4.0%
Aontú 3.6%
People Before Profit - Solidarity 3.1%
Independent Ireland 2.2%
Others 1.9%
Independents 12.7%
That is down on the last GE for them.
ReplyDeleteThe combined vote for the government parties is also significantly down, so that cuts both ways.
DeleteNot so familiar with the Irish voting system although it is striking the number of parties splitting the votes. I note north Ayrshire council tories have just lost 2 of their own to reform. Not sure how this would translate to Holyrood but would maybe suggest the tories May move even more right wing to try and stem the tide.
ReplyDeleteSinn Fein's collapse was down to an internal split on immigration. The party was giving out a very pro immigration message to attract younger voters but lost it's traditional working class base who were feeling the direct effects on eg housing, doctor's waiting lists etc.
ReplyDeleteImmigration is a huge issue in Ireland, currently.
You're not joking. Ireland is being swamped by immigrants and much of Dublin is like a shanty town. SF has also gone ultra woke and is obsessed with the transwomen agenda, turning off much of its traditional support base.
DeleteTá Éire sroichte ag an víreas woke dhúisigh!
DeleteThere's just something simply magickal about chicks with dicks, evidently.
DeletePity all the rest of us who simply dinnae get it.
Ireland is used to lots of immigrants to their country. In the past it was by force and they had to swear an oath to a foreign King or face the consequences. This time people want to settle in part because of their economic success as an independent nation.
DeleteSeriously, go online and see the state of Ireland's towns and cities today. It's unrecognisable as the Ireland of only a few years ago. No country can absorb so many people from a different, often hostile, culture and assimilate them successfully - It's Cloud Cuckoo Land to believe otherwise.
DeleteIreland also has the Dublin effect: young folk are drawn to where all the jobs and action is, leaving the rest of the island to rot.
DeleteA quick search found this handy map—at the Office of National Statistics—of where the largest single group of immigrants—UK nationals—have settled in the Republic. Tellingly, it's not Dublin, and the UK demographic isn't young. Looks a similar pattern to what we have with "white settlers" in the Highlands.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/resource?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/livingabroad/2017-09-21/ce3bcd18.PNG
Source:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/livingabroad/2017-09-21
Yes, Ireland has a 'white settler' problem putting pressure on housing and medical services. But the shanty towns are caused by those from Africa and the Middle East who have no desire to adapt to Western society but wish to bring their old values and culture and impose them on their hosts.
DeleteA bit like the bulldog english pub in Espana ran by ex patriots. Are ex pats , traitors to the English?
Delete"Ex pats" are just economic migrants, like their Middle Eastern and African counterparts, going where it makes sense to go, and to hell with the consequences.
DeleteMass migration is not a godsend. Just ask the native Americans and Australians. People come for their own good, not yours.
Regards migration, I'd like to know the breakdown by Yes/No on indy to views of "Scotland has too much / needs more immigration." Anecdotally, I’m picking up on a definite change from the happy-clappy 2014 days of Yes = New Scots Always Welcome.
ReplyDeleteDon't make me laugh!
DeleteGenerally still quite welcoming but increasingly wary and aware of a sudden demographic change is how I'd put it.
DeleteIt's how I feel anyway.
If you end up like Birmingham I struggle to see how scottish culture is being strengthened. It just becomes a mass of people living somewhere without a loosening national identity.
DeleteScotland needs immigration to support the baby boomers like me in their 70’s etc. and the retirees from England wanting the better services.
ReplyDeleteThat's the argument for immigration, yes. "We need more workers paying taxes and raising kids."
DeleteThe trouble is assimilation. The political class doesn't actually live among them, like the rest of us urban Scots.
Hole in the head!
DeleteUs urban Scots 😂
DeleteHow do you do, fellow urban Scots?
Deleteit is idiotic statements like that which will lead to the utter annihilation of Scotland within a generation; the anglos will turn the highlands and borders into little englandshire, the BAMES will be crammed into the central belt, not leading to an economic boom, but collapsing the welfare state and doing crime. The natives won't exist anymore, mainly because young scots women have not worked out that "kids first" is the right idea, because past 40 you are a barren old crone, only capable of shitting out mongs.
Deletewhat is the skillset of the average boat invader?
Delete- selling mobile phones on the streets? Or worse, stripping an AK in the dark, eyes closed.
economic boom, my arse. The people have no skills, no economic value and will be joining a society where, due to technology, the demand for labour is falling.
"assimilation" - you mean the fact that islam does not "play nice" with other religions, that it is totalitarian in nature and in our multi party democracy, once they hit 20%, by bloc voting, they can influence society well above their numbers. Even buddhists get into fights with muslims. And remember taqqiya - they are instructed to lie about their true nature in order to gain power.
DeleteAbsolutely. We all have to virtue signal these days and say what an asset all these incomers are to Scotland but most are unskilled, semi literates who will only prove to be a drain on society - they're seldom the doctors and engineers that we're told they are.
Deleteoh dear the racists are out in force.
DeleteOh dear, the virtue signallers have arrived. Anyone who has a concern about unfettered immigration is a racist - saves you having to address their concerns.
DeleteIt's _racism_ to judge folk on first sight by the colour of their skin.
DeleteIt's _denial_ to refuse to judge folk for how they treat their fellow human beings and just how often they're wasting police time, the NHS and the benefits system.
It's not racist to want a country to be mostly populated by the ethnic group that gave the country its name. Of course immigration can also be a good thing but it can also be a disruptive influence. The horse has bolted though. Massive change visible in 10 years
DeleteAnon@2:55, Interesting that you're the only one to mention the colour of people's skin🤔. Bit of a racist yourself perhaps?
DeleteIt's the definition of "racism", kiddo. Kinda spelled right there in the word itself.
DeleteI've plenty of non-white neighbours (here in URBAN SCOTLAND 😉) and some of them are great folk. Some of them are numpties, and some of them are a scourge on the whole community. Same can be said for native Scots, but they've always been here, numpties or not.
Insisting we pretend people's language and religion is no concern to the rest of us is much easier done when your nexties are called Jeremy and Quentin.
2:55pm it’s funny you mention the NHS, since the NHS and care sector is now essentially propped up by migrant Labour from Africa and South East Asia. There is currently an existential struggle to recruit nurses in this country, because young people increasingly do not want to go into thankless and increasingly stressful clinical settings for embarrassingly low pay.
DeletePre-COVID, nursing programmes in Scotland were among the most competitive and oversubscribed courses. These days, they are so chronically undersubscribed that universities and colleges are looking at staff redundancies for nursing care lecturers.
By all means, reduce immigration. But the sorts of numbers that the Farages of the world advocate for would, plain and simple, be a death sentence to the health and care sectors. That is, of course, not withstanding an absolutely eye-watering pay rise for health care staff, in line with how they are reimbursed for their labour in Australia, New Zealand, and the USA. That may be enough to attract more native nurses, but you’ll still be left with a significant shortfall in the immediate term while they are trained.
A nurse after a few years is on a heck of a lot more than the median (not average) salary.
DeleteBy all means raise the starting salary and recruit but this idea public sector workers are lowly paid is bunkum.
The elite choose not to mix but demand their “rights” over the rest of us.
ReplyDeletePoor auld elite get it in the neck. Don't be so hard on elites. If it wasn't for elites humanity would still be living in caves.
DeleteOh aye, it was definitely the inbred robber barons who invented the wheel and the industrial revolution. Atlas Shrugged, didn't he, Ayn?
DeleteFG and FF have retired a lot of older TDs this time. SF TDs now older. SF down by the most out of the top three. Transfers from FF and FG to SF down.
ReplyDeleteThat's some heavy duty spin right there. Alternatively, the FF-FG vote is the lowest in history.
DeleteOn tallies so far FF and FG are doing better than exit poll and are ahead of SF.
ReplyDeleteI knocked on Nicola Sturgeons door and ran away.
DeleteYou were lucky not to fall into any of the holes in the front garden.
DeleteI got into Anas Sarwar's kitchen and stole a gypsy cream.
DeleteThat's nothing. I took an air fryer from the garage belonging to the head of the Tories in Scotland. Don't remember his name but the fryer is great for chicken nuggets.
DeleteIn biblical times the Middle East had John the Baptist as a leader. In Scotland today we have John the Redactor as FM. Swinney was quite rightly booed and called out as a traitor today at Salmond's memorial. Swinney who was part of the SNP gang who airbrushed Salmond out of the SNP on line history had some nerve attending this morning.
ReplyDeletePerhaps Swinney might, after this morning, reflect on his actions over recent years and change from a devolutionalist to a proper nationalist who will use his power to gain Scotland its rightful freedom from London rule. Will Swinney remain a House Jock going " cap in hand " to Westminster. I think he will but people can repent and change.
It's wrong that Gordon Brown and Anas Sarwar are invited to Alex Salmond's funeral, while Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf have not been invited.
DeleteNicola was too busy attending the funeral of vile racist Janey Godley. I don't know where Humza was, probably off to Gaza judging by the time he spends talking about it.
DeleteKC the House Jock pleading the case for fellow House Jock John the Redactor.
DeleteAlso some numpty thinks he should decide who went to the Memorial service. Engage what little brain you have numpty and think would you want people who tried to send you to prison on false charges at your Memorial.
The Independence for Scotland character seems to think that Independence for Scotland / his blog ego is all he has to live for. Allow his epitaph. He, for he is undoubtedly not a she, is annoying and never-ending and deserves a quiet death in the social circle he has chosen.
DeleteAnon troll at 4.08pm -
DeleteSwinney was booed and called a traitor today - true.
Salmond was airbrushed out of the SNP website - true.
Do I have a blog ego - false.
Is SGP all I have to live for - false.
Do I see a blog as a social circle - false.
Did I wish Swinney dead - false.
Did anon at 4.08pm wish me dead - yes and that is unacceptable imo on any blog and tells you all you need to know about this anon's character.
You anon seem to find the truth annoying but that is no excuse for your lies and saying I deserve to be dead. I have never said any troll should not be posting despite all the lies they post about me but you have crossed the line. Go away you evil creature.
Anon troll at 4.42pm same troll at 4.08pm. A nasty evil creature.
DeleteIsobel FitzSimons doesn't have friends. She uses SGP to seek attention and feel listened to. She's a bit like Bette Davis's character in Whatever Happened To Baby Jane.
DeleteSturgeon said she wouldn't go for obvious reasons - Hamza was dealing with Palestine and the world's hypocracy. Swinney turned up because at one time he described Salmond as 'my pal'. People shouted traitor at him because of his role in the fit up of Salmond. However, although I no longer like the guy and I think he is a crap leader of a crap party (used to be good) at least he turned up to pay his respects. He probably knew he would get booed but at least he had the guts to face it. Perhaps, as IFS says, he will reflect on this and become 'a better man'.
DeletePoster at 5.27 - it looks like a bit of projection in that comment. There are definitely some unpleasant trolls on SGP and you are one of them.
DeleteIt would be of great benefit for the unity of yessers if Swinney confessed his mistakes and apologised. Truth and reconciliation is needed. Independence supporters shouting shame and traitor to the leader of the SNP is just dreadful.
Hope I'm forgive for this:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thenational.scot/news/24762566.the-dream-lives--new-pro-independence-party-launched/
Those of us who've been following Peter for a while know how strongly he feels about Independence and the SNP's feeble efforts to pursue it.
DeleteI wish him every success.
“We don’t see any need [to stand candidates in 2026]. It knocks on the head of all that nonsense of splitting the independence vote, what that really means is splitting the party vote. If we have the manifesto for independence adopted then it wont matter if the party vote is split as it will still be a vote for the manifesto for independence," Bell said.
DeleteOne attendee asked whether this makes the party a lobbying group, to which Bell responded: “We are acting as a lobbying group initially, but it is a political party.”
———
Tbh, I’m quite impressed. Bell has often struck me as a "dissolve the union" blowhard—a strategy that needs majority public support in place to get off the ground—but what he said today is all quite sensible. He loathes the current SNP leadership as much as many of us do here, yet he's measured his words and has chosen not to go for the jugular at Holyrood.
Will his party fair any better than Alba? I doubt it. But time rolls on and more folk are scunnered with the SNP's direction. One way or another, the impasse will end, sooner or later.
PABs USP is UDI. On that basis alone, his newly formed organisation will fail. He is at least passionate and committed to Independence but this organisation will not last. PAB is a relative unknown outwith the online bubble. He also has a habit of responding badly to other people’s opinions. But he is at least doing something.
ReplyDelete