I took a little bank holiday jaunt to the seaside earlier, and it suddenly struck me that I didn't see a single election poster anywhere on the journey. You literally wouldn't know there was an election on at all. That would have been completely unthinkable at this stage of proceedings a few years ago, and I'm wondering if that lack of visibility might in itself play a role in depressing the turnout.
The latest poll to be published is an MRP from More In Common. The journalist who first revealed the numbers was laying on the anti-SNP spin fairly thick, suggesting that the poll showed John Swinney just barely limping over the line. In truth it's actually rather a good poll for the SNP, because their constituency vote share has risen, which contradicts the trend shown by Norstat and thus increases the chances that Norstat was giving us a misleading impression due to margin of error noise. On the other hand, the SNP list vote has dropped and they are getting dangerously close to being overtaken on the list by Reform, but as long as they can avoid the psychological blow of that crossover occurring, a poor list vote share may not actually make all that much difference in terms of seats.
Scottish parliament constituency ballot (More In Common MRP poll):
SNP 35% (+2)
Reform UK 19% (-2)
Labour 17% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 13% (+1)
Conservatives 13% (+1)
Greens 2% (+1)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 26% (-3)
Reform UK 22% (+3)
Labour 15% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 12% (-)
Greens 11% (+1)
Conservatives 11% (+1)
Seats projection:
SNP 60
Reform UK 22
Labour 13
Liberal Democrats 12
Conservatives 12
Greens 10
The seats projection is also a marked improvement on the previous More In Common MRP, both for the SNP on their own, and for the SNP and Greens in combination. Pro-independence parties would have 70 seats, and anti-independence parties would have 59.
In terms of the individual seats, it's heartening to see the SNP on course to win Edinburgh Central, although Labour are only seven points behind in second place, and as in 2016 there remains a significant danger that the Green intervention could split the vote and hand the seat to a unionist party. As for the Lib Dems, apart from the seats that are nailed on, they are also projected to win Edinburgh Northern and Strathkelvin & Bearsden, which is a bit ominous, although I do wonder if the MRP projections for Strathkelvin & Bearsden are going astray by using the UK general election result in Mid Dunbartonshire as a baseline.
The Tories are projected to cling on to Dumfriesshire, Aberdeenshire West and Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire, although all three are on a knife-edge between themselves and the SNP. Reform UK are projected to take Banffshire & Buchan Coast and Ayr, but the SNP are still firmly in contention in both, with Ayr practically looking like a three-way dead heat between Reform, the SNP and the Tories. Bathgate is weirdly competitive, with the SNP only one point ahead of Reform - is that because the controversial "Stew" blogger used to live there?!
Labour are projected to be completely wiped out in the constituency seats due to the SNP gaining Edinburgh Southern and Dumbarton, although I continue to wonder if sufficient account is being taken of tactical voting in those seats.
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