SNP 68
Greens 18
Reform UK 15
Liberal Democrats 10
Labour 10
Conservatives 8
That would be a single-party SNP overall majority, whereas my projection has the SNP six seats short of a majority on 59. I've been saying for months (and I really have been saying this for months) that the Stats for Lefties projection model always seems to be overly optimistic for the SNP, and often produces an overall majority when other models do not. During the debate in the autumn about whether the SNP should adopt the target of an overall majority, I was very concerned that some of the proponents of the idea were using the Stats for Lefties projections to give the impression that a majority was a lot more likely than was really the case.
However, there are two caveats this time around. As I said myself the other night, in the real world the Scot Goes Pop / Find Out Now poll would probably produce about 63 SNP seats (almost a majority but not quite), because most of the 12% of people who said they would vote Green on the constituency ballot will not be able to do so, and a lot of them will actually vote SNP. So if the Stats for Lefties projection is making some sort of common sense adjustment to the constituency numbers to take account of that, it might not be quite so far out.
And secondly, even without any adjustment, the constituency vote shares from the poll are actually better for the SNP than the Find Out Now MRP poll from last month. The MRP poll had the SNP on 34% of the vote and gave them a 16-point lead over the second placed party (Labour). The Scot Goes Pop poll has the SNP on 35% and gives them a 19-point lead over the second-placed party (Reform UK). The MRP poll, once the individual constituency-level projections were totted up, gave the SNP an overall majority - it was surprising that it showed that, but it did. So if you think the projection method that was used in that MRP poll was sound, then yes, the Scot Goes Pop poll probably would point to an SNP overall majority, even before you take into account the issue of the Greens on the constituency ballot.
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I prefer to be a bit pessimistic then when the result comes in I might not so disappointed. Or if it's a good result then I'll be doubly pleased.
ReplyDeleteYeah, that projection seemed wildly optimistic. They also had the border constituencies solid yellow for the Scottish Elections and solid blue for WM, which seems incongruous.
ReplyDeleteI think Google is useless as i have been trying to find out which 6 Constituency seats the Toxic Woke Greens are actually standing in as I reckon they will scunner the SNP in those Constituency seats. Thus torpedoing any overall majority for the SNP below the waterline. Thus also letting Yoons in on those seats. The Toxic Greens in my view aren't fans of Scots Indy. They have also spent the last 5 years doing their best to damage the Indy cause again in my view. The Stats for Lefties are way too optimistic about SNP prospects.
ReplyDeleteDon't be ridiculous. "scottish greens candidates" led me to greens.scot/candidates, first link. All six constituencies are there.
DeleteIf you say so, Fergus.
Delete"Toxic woke Greens". Please explain, right wing extremist.
ReplyDeleteWhat is surely meant is that the utterly sensible and level headed Scottish Green Party is toxic to the damaging woke concept, itself a US import, and hence the Greens are providing an invaluable service to us all in Scotland in insulating us from the dangers of actually trying to carry out wacky-but-fun-sounding public policy.
DeleteThank you to the Scottish Greens. We see you, and appreciate you.
It's the other side of 'right wing extremist'. They are both of the same coin.
DeleteTrans rights can, not always, be extreme. See men in women's sports
DeleteAbolishing prisons
Free buses for everyone!
No oil needed
These are extreme positions.
The SNP on its own are not getting a majority. They will get between 59-62 seats. SNP policy means there is no mandate to pursue Independence. J S told you this. There will be a majority, possibly as much as 6 or seven, of Indy supporting seats, but that is not enough. BBC and MSM already have their headlines written.
ReplyDeleteThere's a big push by "lefties" for people to vote Green on the list, with the English Polanski being treated as a Scottish hero for some odd reason, so it wouldn't surprise me at all if there was a tendency for some to exaggerate the vote for the SNP and the number of constituency votes to try to fool people into voting Green on the list.
ReplyDeleteProblem is that without an overall majority for the SNP we could be stick with another disastrous and Scottish taxpayer money-wasting BHA and kiss bye bye to any chance of Independence for yet another 5 years of their pie in the sky nonsense.
Abstain, spoil the ballot if you want, but if you do vote, vote SNP 1 and 2.
Complete nonsense. Vote SNP constituency and look at the prospects of Indy parties on the list in your area and vote accordingly. You are either going to vote SNP or Green. The idiotic policy introduced by SNP beggars belief. The BBC and MSM already have their headlines written for the day after the election.That’s down to SNP. They are not the Indy movement. The day they humbly accept that and offer to cooperate is the day we move forward.
DeleteSo a minority of unionists tell Scotland what they can or cannot do?
ReplyDeleteLeading up to the UK 2015 GE many had the SNP tipped to win every seat in Scotland. On election night, I was watching the STV coverage, the exit poll came out and had the SNP on 56 seats, just 3 sort of every seat. Jackie Baillie tried to portray this as a bad result for the SNP as according to the exit poll the SNP hasn't won every seat. Even poor old Bernard Ponsonby and Jackson CarCrash looked on in astonishment at her comments.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, the point I'm making is this...If the SNP can win almost every seat in one election and still gets labeled as a bad result for them then the SNP falling even 1 short of a majority in a few weeks time will have the likes of Jackie Baillie screaming SNP and independence is dead!!
Scottish politics is all about who controls the narrative and the First Minister could have guaranteed the indy narrative if he had agreed a simple "pro indy majority" would be enough to start the ball running for another indy vote..
Actress Annette Crosbie is the only person to have visited all 50 of the United States.
ReplyDeleteAll 50?
DeleteWhat else is an SNP leader supposed to argue for? The green vote down south is surging in polls and elections, if JS came out with "oh yeah you can vote SNP 1 Green 2 and thats good enough for me" that wouldn't go down well with the SNP membership.
ReplyDeleteAny SNP leader has to argue for the most votes for their party, its not credible for the SNP to say their aim is only minority government.
Sure the wider independence movement might cheer but I think it would cause internal arguments within the party that aren't worth it.
Mark Mcgeoghegan on bluesky was saying the Green vote appears much more variable than random error would suggest, if thats right then thats a spanner in the works for any list seat projection? Probably very useful to SNP planning they aren't expecting many list seats tbh.
"Mark Mcgeoghegan on bluesky"
DeleteWhere's my crucifix?
Honest question here are Labour employing door knockers similar to charity door knockers to do there canvassing. Everytime I see them in my constituency it’s the same group always during the day unlike the other parties who door knock early evening and clearly aren’t paid
ReplyDelete