SNP 67
Labour 17
Greens 14
Reform UK 14
Conservatives 10
Liberal Democrats 7
I have a new article at The National discussing the track record of past MRP projections, which you can read HERE.
UPDATE: OK, thanks to Michael and Keith in the comments section, we now know which six constituencies are projected to elude the SNP. They are:
Caithness, Sutherland and Ross (LibDems)
Edinburgh North Western (LibDems)
Edinburgh Southern (Lab)
Fife North East (LibDems)
Orkney Islands (LibDems)
Shetland Islands (LibDems)
That means the SNP are projected to enjoy a whole string of eyebrow-raising wins elsewhere:
Dumbarton: I'm struggling with this one. It should be a Labour hold on the basis of the swing in national polls, and bearing in mind the track record of tactical voting in the constituency, it's hard to see how the SNP take it.
Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire: An SNP gain is possible here, but it's like trying to thread a needle - the unionist vote would have to be divided almost perfectly. Unlikely in my view.
Dumfriesshire: A bit more plausible, but still a very tough one - the SNP are starting from ten points behind the Tories.
Galloway & West Dumfries: The most winnable of the three Blue Wall seats in the south, and the SNP have a past track record of success here, although on the basis of national trends they would still be expected to fall just short. But I can accept this one as a plausible SNP gain.
Banffshire & Buchan Coast: The SNP look vulnerable here to both the Tories and Reform, but it's by no means outlandish to think they'll hold on.
Aberdeenshire West: On paper this doesn't look promising for the SNP, but we keep hearing the Tory canvass results in the northeast are dreadful, so yes, this is a possible gain.
Inverness & Nairn: I don't think anybody really knows yet what the impact of Fergus Ewing's independent candidacy will be, so there's a big question mark on this one.
East Lothian Coast & Lammermuirs: Looked like a lost cause not that long ago, but could now be very close.
Edinburgh Central, Glasgow Kelvin & Maryhill and Glasgow Southside have all been touted as Green gains. As previously explained, those predictions are based on a smoke-and-mirrors statistical exercise and shouldn't be taken seriously, but with an effective Green campaign the SNP are not necessarily safe in any of the three, and they're also vulnerable to Labour in Edinburgh Central. Each of the three in isolation looks like a probable SNP hold, but is it really likely their luck will hold out in all three? Even if just one of the three were to go to Labour or the Greens, it would make winning an overall majority very tough.
So as you can see I'm still very sceptical about the prospects of a single-party overall majority, but believe me about one thing: I do want to believe.
* * *
My latest constituency profiles for The National are Fife North East and Galloway & West Dumfries.
* * *
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From the article, these are the seats they're not projected to win:
ReplyDeleteCaithness, Sutherland and Ross (LibDems)
Edinburgh North Western (LibDems)
Edinburgh Southern (Lab)
Fife North East (LibDems)
Orkney Islands (LibDems)
Shetland Islands LibDems)
Thanks.
DeleteOther Lib Dem seats Caithness, Sutherland & Ross: Edinburgh North Western: Fife North East yet to see the Labour constituency seat
ReplyDeleteLabour constituency seat is Edinburgh Southern
ReplyDeleteThis is unreal. People are telling you what YOU wrote in the article and you're thanking them. That's as dodgy as fish!
ReplyDeleteNope. My article at The National was not about the poll itself, it was about the past track record of MRP polling. It was Xander Elliards who did the write-up of today's poll (in fact I think he wrote three articles about it).
Delete"The MRP [multi-level regression and post-stratification method] found 6% support for “other” on the Highlands and Islands regional list, which would be sufficient to return an MSP should those votes all coalesce around a single candidate. However, the “other” vote is likely to be split between a number of smaller parties and independents, so the final list seat was accordingly assigned to the LibDems. "
ReplyDeleteAcross Scotland the Find Out Now methodology gives a Ghostly Other vote of 4% in both constituency and list, whereas Norstat had a mere 1% of such in the constituencies v. 6% on list.
For me, Aberdeenshire West is a Tory hold, unless Lady Luck is far kinder to your party than it was to The Proclaimers.
ReplyDeleteIn an echo of that same sentiment, regarding the Galloway / Dumfriesshire seats, SNP would surely need luck on their side that the pro-Union vote splits to let them through the middle each time. Unionist voters down there, and in the Roxburghshire etc. Borders, are pretty alert on tactical voting in my experience… so, I’d be surprised.
Lastly to add that these seats aren’t independent events, just like US swing states in a presidential election, the result in one seat could be a harbinger / decent predictor for how many of the other seats go. Could be either a desperate or a splend night for the SNP!
Is Fatima Joji the sort of SNP candiate who would attract Tory voters in Aberdeenshire West? Somebody more on the right wing of the SNP might have been a better choice.
DeleteBrilliant. Absolutely brilliant. An SNP majority. Independence no ifs no buts is guaranteed. Swinney is the man.
ReplyDeleteJames, do you still stand by your longtime assertion for Both Votes SNP? How plausible is it they will win any list seats anywhere in Scotland at all in this election? Isn't that an awful lot of wasted list votes, and needlessly elected unionists as a result?
ReplyDeleteI know your argument is that SNP list votes are an essential insurance policy in case the party falls flat on election day and we see unionists winning constituencies all over the shop. But is that even plausible this time, when they're all in such disarray and all eyes are on the Yes vs. No totals in this election?
I’m voting Green on the list here in Edinburgh North. I'll vote SNP in the constituency, even though there's a Green candidate, because I'd rather do the responsible thing and not let a unionist win when I can make a difference.
Yes, I do stand by Both Votes SNP, because the argument for it isn't actually affected by opinion polls. The list vote is the vote that determines the composition of parliament, and to the extent that my vote can affect the composition of parliament, I want it to benefit my own first-choice party.
DeleteHowever, whenever this argument comes up, the "other side" fall into two different categories - those who are voting tactically for the Greens, and those who are completely throwing their list votes away on fringe parties who cannot possibly win any seats, such as Atlas and ISP. I'm relieved you at least don't fall into the latter category and that you'll be voting for a party with credible prospects.
https://listvotesense.medium.com/why-bothvotessnp-matters-e79cbcf21375
Delete9:32 again.
DeleteIndeed. I've voted Green on the list ever since 1999, with one exception: in 2021 I voted for Alba, like you. I had my doubts about them, but I also respected our list's top candidate Kenny MacAskill (especially for resisting the Americans taking Megrahi) so I gave them a punt. That election's piss poor result put me right off the party, and nothing that happened to them since seemed out of place, sadly.
Ross Greer sounds good in interviews and I’m willing to give my old party another shot, now the previous leadership is gone. If it was still puritanical Harvie in command, I don't know who I'd vote for.
I respect your defence of the purpose of the list vote. In ordinary circumstances, like those before 2014, that's exactly what it's meant for. The counter argument however is that voting like it's ordinary times is a lifeline to Labour, Tory and Reform, whose MSPs are committed to keeping Scotland under London rule, come what may. Nigel Farage or Tommy Robinson…
Ross Greer is an idiot
DeleteEast Lothian Labour have really fallen out with locals with their proposals to introduce parking charges.
ReplyDeleteI think SNP will win EL
Yes, Labour in East Lothian are very unpopular not only because of Starmer et al but also since they run the Council and insist on imposing car parking charges against widespread opposition. Although the SNP and Greens councillors support this, (but not the SNP candidate) Labour voters are likely to abstain or vote for Morgwn Davies, who is standing as an anti-parking charges independent.
DeleteThe big problem of course is that if people pay attention to this poll and don't give the SNP their list votes because of it, and the SNP fail to win 67 constituency seats, more likely 60 or so seats, then there is no overall SNP majority and the Unionists will be laugh laugh laugh for another 319 years.
ReplyDeleteBy which time I daresay I'll be long deid.
The SNP's polling too low to get list seats to compensate them for losses. James has been saying this ever since Swinney announced his 65+ strategy.
DeleteThe only way to win that many seats for them is either a blockbuster haul of constituencies (which polls suggest is possible, but far from guaranteed) or to gain a massive surge of list votes over and above what they already have.
Breaking the system, like Salmond did in 2011, is no small feat.
The list isn’t a wasted vote at all if you want the snp to win. It means if they don’t win the constituency they’ll be made up with the lost seat. But also if they do win the constituency they are at least as well placed to win a seat as any other Indy party on the list.
ReplyDeleteYou would need another Indy party to get more votes than snp on list to gamble.
There isn’t another party other than the greens
> You would need another Indy party to get more votes than snp on list to gamble.
DeleteNot true. The SNP's list vote is divided by the number of constituencies they have won in that region, plus one. That’s how the list compensates parties who lost out. Winning any seats on the list will be hard for the SNP where it is now.
> There isn’t another party other than the greens
Correct. To win list seats, other parties must compete head to head (their d'Hondt divisor starts at 1) so you'd need a Yes party that's competitive in the polls with Labour, the Tories and Reform.
That’s the contest we're on about. If the SNP is close to winning almost every constituency in Scotland, then it's a deathmatch on the list between the Brits and the Greens. That’s the top-up system doing its job.
I look forward to Swinney addressing the UN on our behalf declaring Scotland an independent nation, as we withdraw from the treaty due to numerous breaches.
ReplyDeleteI’m as big a yes supporter as anyone.
ReplyDeleteAs a postal voter I received my leaflet today from Reform UK, (takes a quick look) on behalf of the SNP. From Feltham in Middlesex.
ReplyDeleteThat's almost as bad as Chris Packham from Hampshire wanting to tell us ignorant Jocks how to run our wildernesses as he's sensibly prevented from doing that in his native New Forest.
If you don't live here don't tell us what to do. /polite lingo