EXCLUSIVE SCOT GOES POP / FIND OUT NOW POLL: SNP and Greens on course to win nearly TWO-THIRDS of Holyrood seats and a pro-independence SUPERMAJORITY - SNP overall majority still a possibility - Labour slump to dismal FIFTH place in the seats projection

A little earlier tonight, I revealed the Scottish Parliament voting intention results from the new Scot Goes Pop / Find Out Now poll in a video on my YouTube channel, but as promised, here are the results in text form...

Scot Goes Pop / Find Out Now poll, 15th-20th April 2026

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 35% (+1)

Reform UK 16% (+1)

Labour 14% (-4)

Greens 12% (+3)

Liberal Democrats 10% (-)

Conservatives 9% (-)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 27% (-2)

Greens 20% (+6)

Reform UK 17% (+1)

Labour 12% (-5)

Liberal Democrats 11% (+1)

Conservatives 10% (-)

Seats projection:

SNP 59

Greens 23

Reform UK 17

Liberal Democrats 11

Labour 10

Conservatives 9

Just a reminder that the sample size was 1002, and the percentage changes are measured from Find Out Now's recent MRP poll commissioned by The National.

As stated in the video, I can't find a higher Green list vote share in any poll from any polling firm over the last few years, so it's certainly a high watermark in recent times and may be an all-time high, but I'm not sure on the latter point.  To address a question that I know will be raised, Professor John Curtice cast doubt on Find Out Now's list results a few months ago, because he felt the wording of their list question might be artificially boosting support for smaller pro-independence parties.  They took that feedback on board and replaced the question with a new wording that immediately reduced support for the smaller parties.  

When I saw such a surprisingly high Green vote in this poll, I did doublecheck to make sure Find Out Now were still using the new version of the question, and indeed they were, so to the best of my knowledge there's no particular reason to be sceptical about the results - apart of course from the fact that any poll can potentially be an outlier, and some might argue that the Green list result in this poll has 'outlier' written all over it because it isn't in line with trends shown by most other polling firms recently.  But keep an open mind until we see the next batch of polls: there's always just a chance that this is the early evidence of a new trend.

All polling firms have house effects, but trends are often more consistent across the polling industry, and I must say it's very hard to square these results with the propaganda message we've been hearing from Labour about their vote firming up on the doorsteps.  Similarly the Tories claim to be faring surprisingly well - but if so, shouldn't there at least be some sign of that in this poll?!

In case you're wondering about the quirk of Labour only being in fifth place in the seats projection when they're in third place on the constituency ballot and fourth place on the list, the main explanation for that is the likelihood that the Lib Dems will win more constituency seats than Labour.

It's really important to remember that the seats projection is taking the constituency vote shares seriously, and is thus likely to be underestimating the SNP, who I reckon would be on 63 seats - and thus only just short of an overall majority - if you make a common sense adjustment to reassign a slim majority of Green constituency voters to the SNP in the seats where the Greens are not standing.  But it's fair to say the main story of this poll is about the prospect of a two-party pro-independence supermajority of the type that Alex Salmond suggested in 2021 might break the logjam (albeit of course that supermajority, if it happens, will not consist of the parties he had in mind).  It's also about the prospect of pro-independence parties filling the roles of both the government and the main opposition party - which is similarly an outcome that it has been suggested in the past might be a staging-post towards independence.

There's still more to come from this poll in the days to come, but in the meantime please check out the new Scot Goes Pop polling fundraiser - if you have a few pounds to spare it would be very much appreciated, and might inch us closer to being able to run another poll at some point in the future.