EXCLUSIVE SCOT GOES POP / FIND OUT NOW POLL: A significant majority of voters in Scotland would vote Yes to independence in a new referendum held now

As promised for the video-phobic amongst you (although do watch the video version if you're not video-phobic!), here are the independence results in text form from the new Scot Goes Pop poll I commissioned last week.  The polling firm that conducted the poll was Find Out Now, who are a member of the British Polling Council and abide by that organisation's rules.  They're also a member of the Market Research Society.  The sample consists of 1002 respondents who were interviewed between 15th and 20th April, in other words between Wednesday of last week and yesterday.  

Scot Goes Pop / Find Out Now poll

If another Scottish independence referendum was held tomorrow, with the question 'Should Scotland be an independent country?', how would you vote?

Yes 53% (-) 

No 47% (-)

Those numbers, which exclude Don't Knows, are unchanged from the most recent comparable Find Out Now poll, which was commissioned by The National in February.  However, on the figures which leave Don't Knows in, there is a small increase in the Yes lead:

Yes 50% (-)

No 44% (-1)

Undecided 6% (+1)

The results have been weighted by age, gender, region and recalled 2024 general election vote - but not, crucially, by 2014 referendum recalled vote, which after this length of time carries with it the risk of false recall.  (Find Out Now's methodology is absolutely consistent regardless of client, let me stress - these results would have been exactly the same if the poll had been commissioned by the Daily Express.)

In my view, what is most significant about these results is that they are bang up to date and are taken from fieldwork right in the middle of an election campaign, because we know from past experience that independence support sometimes dips during elections, even when the SNP's own vote holds up.  That's probably because unionist parties devote so much of their campaigning to attacks on the subject without the SNP necessarily responding in kind.  But on the evidence of this poll, it's not a problem on this occasion.

Across the whole polling industry, there have now been fifteen independence polls in 2026 so far.  Nine of them have shown a Yes lead, only four have shown a No lead, and the remaining two were dead heats.  No fewer than *six* different polling firms have shown a pro-independence majority at some point this year: Find Out Now, Ipsos, Savanta, Stonehaven, Norstat and More In Common (although I must admit I hadn't previously been aware of the Savanta poll until I checked the list just now - I'll have to look into it).

There is no gender gap in the Find Out Now poll other than the fact that women are slightly more likely to be undecided: they break 49% to 43% for Yes, while among men the Yes lead is 51% to 45%.  As ever, there is an enormous gulf between the youngest and oldest respondents, although in this case the best age bracket for Yes is thirtysomethings.  30-39 year olds break 68% to 27% for Yes.  The best age group for No is 65-74 year olds, who break 69% to 26% for No.  The youngest age group to be pro-No is 55-64 year olds.  

Among people who voted for unionist parties in the 2024 UK general election, there is considerable minority support for independence (except among Tory voters who are almost monolithically No).  26% of Labour voters, 21% of Liberal Democrat voters, and 20% of Reform UK voters would back Yes in a new referendum.  In a way that's a bad thing, though, because we want all independence supporters to be voting for pro-independence parties - we don't want then cross-voting for unionist parties.

The settled will klaxon is sounding tonight, and I can tell you that KC has already heard it loud and clear.  There's plenty more to come from this poll, including the Holyrood numbers, which as I said in the video contain a really quite stunning result in one particular respect - and the more I've checked it and compared it to previous polls, the more extraordinary it looks.  

So keep an eye out for more results over the coming days, and in the meantime please check out the new Scot Goes Pop polling fundraiser - if you have a few pounds to spare it would be very much appreciated.