The contents have it! I'll try to make a video about this poll when I have a spare moment, but for now the basic facts deserve mentioning, because they bode extremely well for the SNP. Lord Ashcroft is showing, as far as I can see, the highest SNP vote on the constituency ballot in any poll from any polling firm since the autumn of 2023 - in other words this is the highest since John Swinney became First Minister.
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP 39%
Reform UK 14%
Labour 12%
Greens 11%
Liberal Democrats 10%
Conservatives 9%
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 31%
Greens 17%
Reform UK 15%
Labour 12%
Conservatives 10%
Liberal Democrats 9%
Alba 1%
Of course it's nonsensical to even be including Alba, a party that will not be standing at the election and that has announced its intention to abolish itself. Hopefully other pollsters will stop including them. There's also a lot of uncertainty about the real destination of the supposed 11% Green vote on the constituency ballot, because the Greens will apparently not be standing in most constituency contests, with their focus instead on the list where they will win most or all of their seats. If even around one-third of those Green votes end up in the SNP column, that would take the SNP well into the 40s, pushing them closer to the type of result they had on the constituency ballot in their landslide years of 2011, 2016 and 2021.
Notably (and this will horrify and bewilder Stew), when respondents were asked the direct question of whether they prefer an SNP-Green coalition government to the plausible alternatives, they came down in favour of the SNP-Green option.
Which of the following would you rather see in a coalition government?
SNP-Greens 38%
Labour-Liberal Democrats 34%
SNP-Greens 42%
Labour-Liberal Democrats-Conservatives 30%
SNP-Greens 45%
Labour-Liberal Democrats-Reform UK 27%
SNP-Greens 44%
Labour-Liberal Democrats-Conservatives-Reform UK 28%
Last but not least, there's a narrow No lead on the independence question, but that still represents a big increase for Yes since the last Ashcroft poll on the subject (which was three years ago!).
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 48% (+4)
No 52% (-4)
My latest Holyrood constituency profiles for The National are Dunfermline and East Kilbride.
Worth highlighting that the Lord Ashcroft Poll is a double sample (2,089).
ReplyDeleteElection Swingometer model; Total seats (Regional seats).
SNP 60 (0), Green 19 (18), RefUK 17 (17), Lab 13 (11), Con 12 (7), LibDem 8 (3).
SNP short of outright majority by 5 seats.
Right from the outset, it’s clear there’s no route to an outright majority for the SNP through regional top-ups (not from this algorithm).
The solitary Green constituency victory seems a bit unlikely, that could easily be another SNP seat. The two Labour seats could be ultra vulnerable.
The most obvious (super majority) coalition would be SNP & Green. Holyrood rumour mill (from before the Iran war) had it that Swinney preferred an SNP & LibDem coalition. In the present (and foreseeable future) an SNP & LibDem coalition could be most palatable to the general public as the unhinged zealots in the Greens simply won’t entertain a single additional barrel of oil, or cubic meter of gas being extracted from the North Sea.
Perhaps it would be better for the SNP to hold their nose and form a (marginal) majority with the (Unionist) LibDems. That would be a “pragmatic” display of good economic governance. It could boost jobs in the energy sector, and beyond. It would bring down utility bills for every household. It could bring soft Unionists over to the economic case for Independence. It would be entirely in character for pathological cautious John Swinney.
It would be crazy to go into coalition with the Lib Dems. The SNP membership would be furious, and Cole-Hamilton would only do it if the SNP shelved independence. John Swinney is indeed cautious, and surely he's cautious enough to avoid that kind of needless damage.
DeleteLib Dem’s thought out Federalism a long time ago and would work with the tories and labour but not the snp. Cole-Hamilton is a no, no.
DeleteDid Mr C-H not declare that Scotland should never be an independent country, with the emphasis on never?
DeleteI would think Glasgow Kelvin might be an outside possibility for the Greens. It's the seat they came closest to winning last time, albeit with the SNP 18 points ahead.
DeleteThis poll seems to have been an instant trigger for the virulently anti-Swinney/SNP leadership/SNP Yes movement generals' heads exploding with predictable displays of tub-thumping outrage and the usual cynical spit and venom repeat scripts all over social media and in the comments sections of the National!
DeleteMeanwhile, very interesting article on Bella Caledonia looking deeply at bods associated with The Alliance to Liberate Scotland. Since their first intro to candidates Youtube with Tommy Sheridan and Craig Murray hosted by Barrheid whatisname, their twitter spats with Mr Petrie who left for ISP and now twitter declaration by Craig Murray that ISP are Zionists (!) - and then the highlighting of George Galloway's Damascene conversion to independence - we now see Murray suggesting the gorgeous one come into The Alliance to Liberate Scotland fold. Why does Craig Murray, during his alighting like a butterly on every new party, seem to assume that he has some kind of appointed 'assessor and advisor' role or establish some element of control over all of them? That British Ambassador smell kind of hangs about in the Scotland ether. Meanwhile, some of Alba still trying to put together a convincing script here and there - here a red herring, there a red herring - it was a distraction theatre performance all along song.
Good poll for the SNP, given the caveat it's only a poll - but yes movement wee general pugilists high on Duracell going at the punchbags and the envy on wheels Daleks crashing into each others' rhetorical spasms - like dodgem cars yelling 'ATTACK, ATTACK' that dastardly SNP leadership. Their human instinct seems to be a pathological lust for SNP degradation - nothing more, nothing less. Pretty vacuous life.
The SNP would do well to keep clear of the LibDems. Only realistic option is to go it alone as a minority. Greens will always back the Indy stuff. It will be interesting to see how much of the Green vote will go to the SNP in the constituency. Still short of a majority in this poll but still achievable
DeleteThe won't be a deal with the LibDems. They'd demand no action on independence as a start, and there would be revolt in the party.
DeleteSounds like someone stirring the pot.
"Meanwhile, very interesting article on Bella Caledonia looking deeply at bods associated with The Alliance to Liberate Scotland"
DeleteWhat's the link for that? Can't find it.
I think the reference is to an article which isn't actually on Bella Caledonia but is linked to from there.
Delete“The Alliance to Liberate Scotland” are an irrelevance. Literally the only time I ever hear about them, their ex-Alba converts, Barrhead Boy (?), their bizarre “Sovereignty” micro party etc. is on this blog. They are generally invisible and o the Scot voting public.
ReplyDelete“The Alliance to Liberate Scotland” are an irrelevance. Literally the only time I ever hear about them, their ex-Alba converts, Barrhead Boy (?), their bizarre “Sovereignty” micro party etc. is on this blog. They are generally invisible and o the Scot voting public.“
DeleteYeah, splitters and a total distraction.
It’s the Democratic Alliance to Liberate Scotland that the Yes movement needs to unite behind if they’re serious about independence.
Our analysis shows that if just half of SNP voters support us on the list, there will be an Indy supermajority!
I’m just waiting for a second person to sign up, so we can have our first meeting.
James, on the independence polling, do you know if Ashcroft weights to the 2014 referendum? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteIt's hard to tell. There's no sign of the Yes vote having been weighted down, but that doesn't necessarily prove there's no weighting by recalled 2014 vote.
DeleteThanks
DeleteWhat does this, from Holyrood Magazine, mean?
ReplyDelete"Due to the way the polling is conducted, with voters asked to score each party out of 100, it is not possible to generate accurate seat predictions for how the parliament will look after 7 May."
https://www.holyrood.com/inside-politics/view,exclusive-lord-ashcroft-poll-puts-snp-ahead-as-labour-struggles-before-holyrood-vote
Ashcroft's polls in late 2014/2015 were the first ones to pick up the increase in SNP support prior to the 2015 General election.
ReplyDelete