Thank goodness it’s the majority of pro Indy votes, and not just SNP votes, that count. Oh wait!! Thanks Swinney. No mandate to progress Indy? Meanwhile, another chunk of salary and pension benefits. Well worked. Conference must be proud, so very proud, to have voted your policy through.
Taking the figures but making the figures for "other" as 5% and 6% does indeed give SNP 64 - 0 on the list. "Other" get 2 on the list.
https://devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
But making other 0% and 1% gives SNP 65 - 1 on the list. "Other" get 0 on the list. Other are not a party so won't be winning 2 seats on the list with 6% of the list vote - other will be split between the usual small groups.
I have raised eyebrows about devolvedelection. Swingometer shows 60 seats for the SNP on the actual poll figures. But with them, move 5% from Greens to the SNP gives the SNP 66 seats.
I think, accurate or not, it gives an idea of SNP targets - same vote for them as in 2011 on both constituency and list. Impossible? I don't think so. Not even that unlikely.
"But with them, move 5% from Greens to the SNP gives the SNP 66 seats."
Er...how does it do that? Are you assuming the Greens keep the other 6%?
On the assumption I made that the Green vote would split 5% to the SNP, 3% for Labour, 2% for Green and 1% for Lib Dem, it leaves the SNP on 64 seats, one short of a majority.
OK. Moving 5% greens constituency to the SNP gives the SNP 69 with 1 list seat. Also moving 5% from Greens on the List to SNP gives the same 69 for SNP but less for the Greens as you'd expect.
But make the SNP 43% on the list - 1% less than the constituency as in 2011, jiggle the others a little, and the SNP get 71 (3 list seats) with the Greens on 11. No need for BHA2 and a safe overall majority.
To achieve an overall majority, the SNP do need to max the list vote as well as the constituency.
Personally speaking I wouldn't rely too much on Reform up high in the mix.
yesindyref2: but the high heid yins in the movement seem to all be behind the Sillars strategy that there needs to be a build up to the 2029 general election and that's when they want a full plebiscite independence election and are not that bothered about this HR election. It's very difficult to see e.g. ATLS candidates getting the votes needed to get into Holyrood, except maybe one is in with a fairish chance. They said they are not standing where Fergus Ewing is (presumably as backing for the Salmond conspiracy court money backers) - but Ewing stated ages ago that he thought independence shouldn't really be a consideration for at least 10 years. The problem is - if people are doing the 'hostage politics' thing and won't vote to ensure we get a sitting SNP government - then it's not just pragmatic progress towards gearing up for independence you will be scuppering - it's the potential loss of the now taken for granted and ignored bucks the SNP guarantee will continue to mitigate financial hardships for as many of the really vulnerable receiving backup. Because of events in the Middle East, the entire UK economy is about to fall in on itself again - and there are going to be huge financial shortages for any ScotGov - and if SNP don't hold Holyrood, a lot of safety valves for those worst off are going to be lost. A narrow hostage vote based on the one trick pony of pushing for a referendum right now is not going to produce any financial safety valves for those in the country who most need them. Any transition to independence cannot produce any next day manna from heaven to help anybody - it will take years. As Sillars said recently, you need to have an arrangement with RUK from Day 1 for basic things like can we use their ports and infrastructure to get goods in and out of the country. All that nitty gritty has to be planned for and negotiated - and that's just a start. There will be no money to go in people's pockets the day after any independence vote or quick gratification declaration. People need to be realistic and do the real adult stuff - and as Scotland is not self-sustaining - and all of the things we need, which people forget, disappearing down the Swannee because of the Middle East - all this pretending that a quick gratification independence nothing less is a pile of piddle. We need a government in place to sustain what we have right now - because once Reform and the unionists group together - you can see what they want to dismantle - and stopping that happening is more important right now for the country.
Thank goodness it’s the majority of pro Indy votes, and not just SNP votes, that count. Oh wait!! Thanks Swinney. No mandate to progress Indy? Meanwhile, another chunk of salary and pension benefits. Well worked. Conference must be proud, so very proud, to have voted your policy through.
ReplyDeleteAch there's always Atlas!
DeleteTaking the figures but making the figures for "other" as 5% and 6% does indeed give SNP 64 - 0 on the list. "Other" get 2 on the list.
ReplyDeletehttps://devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
But making other 0% and 1% gives SNP 65 - 1 on the list. "Other" get 0 on the list. Other are not a party so won't be winning 2 seats on the list with 6% of the list vote - other will be split between the usual small groups.
You're using a completely different projection model from me, so it's an apples-and-oranges comparison.
DeleteI have raised eyebrows about devolvedelection. Swingometer shows 60 seats for the SNP on the actual poll figures. But with them, move 5% from Greens to the SNP gives the SNP 66 seats.
Deletehttps://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/scottish-parliament?election=2021s&cSNP=44&cCON=10&cLAB=12&cLD=9&cGRN=6&cREF=14&rSNP=31&rCON=10&rLAB=12&rGRN=17&rLD=9&rALBA=1&rREF=15&output=seat-gains-and-losses#Scotland
and raising the list to 1% less than constit gives them 69.
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/scottish-parliament?election=2021s&cSNP=44&cCON=10&cLAB=12&cLD=9&cGRN=6&cREF=14&rSNP=43&rCON=10&rLAB=10&rGRN=9&rLD=9&rALBA=1&rREF=13&output=seat-gains-and-losses#Scotland
I think, accurate or not, it gives an idea of SNP targets - same vote for them as in 2011 on both constituency and list. Impossible? I don't think so. Not even that unlikely.
"But with them, move 5% from Greens to the SNP gives the SNP 66 seats."
DeleteEr...how does it do that? Are you assuming the Greens keep the other 6%?
On the assumption I made that the Green vote would split 5% to the SNP, 3% for Labour, 2% for Green and 1% for Lib Dem, it leaves the SNP on 64 seats, one short of a majority.
OK. Moving 5% greens constituency to the SNP gives the SNP 69 with 1 list seat. Also moving 5% from Greens on the List to SNP gives the same 69 for SNP but less for the Greens as you'd expect.
ReplyDeleteBut make the SNP 43% on the list - 1% less than the constituency as in 2011, jiggle the others a little, and the SNP get 71 (3 list seats) with the Greens on 11. No need for BHA2 and a safe overall majority.
To achieve an overall majority, the SNP do need to max the list vote as well as the constituency.
Personally speaking I wouldn't rely too much on Reform up high in the mix.
(Curtice waffling excitedly on the TV - I think he's lost the plot).
ReplyDeleteAnyways, how can Swinney achieve the seeming impossible - say 45% constituency and 44% on the list for say 69 seats?
Well, if he actually does have a secret plan he does need to reveal it before the postal votes are sent out, which for me is Friday 17 April.
I think it's a case of show and go lasting 3 weeks.
yesindyref2: but the high heid yins in the movement seem to all be behind the Sillars strategy that there needs to be a build up to the 2029 general election and that's when they want a full plebiscite independence election and are not that bothered about this HR election. It's very difficult to see e.g. ATLS candidates getting the votes needed to get into Holyrood, except maybe one is in with a fairish chance. They said they are not standing where Fergus Ewing is (presumably as backing for the Salmond conspiracy court money backers) - but Ewing stated ages ago that he thought independence shouldn't really be a consideration for at least 10 years. The problem is - if people are doing the 'hostage politics' thing and won't vote to ensure we get a sitting SNP government - then it's not just pragmatic progress towards gearing up for independence you will be scuppering - it's the potential loss of the now taken for granted and ignored bucks the SNP guarantee will continue to mitigate financial hardships for as many of the really vulnerable receiving backup. Because of events in the Middle East, the entire UK economy is about to fall in on itself again - and there are going to be huge financial shortages for any ScotGov - and if SNP don't hold Holyrood, a lot of safety valves for those worst off are going to be lost. A narrow hostage vote based on the one trick pony of pushing for a referendum right now is not going to produce any financial safety valves for those in the country who most need them. Any transition to independence cannot produce any next day manna from heaven to help anybody - it will take years. As Sillars said recently, you need to have an arrangement with RUK from Day 1 for basic things like can we use their ports and infrastructure to get goods in and out of the country. All that nitty gritty has to be planned for and negotiated - and that's just a start. There will be no money to go in people's pockets the day after any independence vote or quick gratification declaration. People need to be realistic and do the real adult stuff - and as Scotland is not self-sustaining - and all of the things we need, which people forget, disappearing down the Swannee because of the Middle East - all this pretending that a quick gratification independence nothing less is a pile of piddle. We need a government in place to sustain what we have right now - because once Reform and the unionists group together - you can see what they want to dismantle - and stopping that happening is more important right now for the country.
Delete10.02am is a do nothing about independence anon who fits in well with the do nothing about independence SNP.
DeleteI can well imagine any BBC coverage: "new poll shows Reform UK snapping at the heels of the SNP"!
ReplyDelete