The big problem with trying to predict the list is - analysing the 2011 actual list results - and working out divisors and nett percentages for each list seat actually won by the SNP.
With for instance 8 seats won in a region, the divisor is 9. If the percentage list vote is 36%, the nett % is 4.0, but if the vote is 45% the nett % is 5.0.
In 2011 Central Scotland with 6 constituency seats, 3 list seats were won with divisors of 7, 8 and 9 - nett percentages 6.6%, 5.8% and 5.2%.
H&I with 6 constituency, 3 list seats divisors 7, 8 and 9 - 6.8%, 5.9% and 5.4%.
Mid Scot with 8 constituency, still got 1 list seat divisor 9 nett 5.0%.
NE Scotland with 10, yes, all 10 constituency seats still got 1 list seat with divisor 11 nett 4.8%.
@Yi2. It's not a percentage procedure anyway. There isn't a threshold you're trying to hit (as there is in STV), rather at every stage it's "simply" the party with the most votes / seats +1 who gets the next seat.
So it's really as much about how the other parties are doing as just your own vote. Anyone without their first seat yet is at a huge arithmetic advantage. With Labour, Tories, Liberals, Greens and now Farage's boys in the mix, a lot of list seats will be won by parties with low divisors, many at just 1.
I reckon this election will be the toughest ever for the SNP to win any list seats at all. So much easy pickings in the constituencies and so much contention on the list.
"With Labour, Tories, Liberals, Greens and now Farage's boys in the mix"
There's still only 100% in, well, errr, 100%.
If the SNP got 45% on the list, then there's more parties now to share out that other 55%. If others (Your party, family, Alba, loonies) get 6% between them, and the others shared the remaining 49% equally to make the arithmetic easy, they'd all get 9.8% for the first seat, get one seat each on the list, but then their divisor would be 2 not 1, for a nett 4.9% - and the SNP get the 6th seat (of 7) with 5.0% (8 constituency seats for a divisor of 9).
Using percentages means you don't have to invent numbers of votes for each party.
Unlike some of our regulars, I don't have an especially negative view of John Swinney - I think he's something of a relief after the personality cults of Salmond and Sturgeon, and whatever Humza was - but his electoral record is pretty gash. Is it really plausible that this guy, someone who has lost seats in every single one of the five (I believe) national elections over which he has presided as leader, could win the most spectacular victory in the history of the Scottish Parliament?
Let's hope he can pull it off, though. Either he really does have an amazing secret plan and we'll have a referendum, or the whole thing will be exposed as a breathtakingly cynical ploy. Both would be a reckoning, I think
Come on KEATON you know find well that if he pulls off an SNP majority it will be because Reform have split the Britnat vote, even more than previously, so the SNP can win nearly all the seats in the first past the post constituency part of the election. It's nothing to do with Swinney as the SNP are still in the 30%s in the polls.
Surely you don't believe in a secret plan. For nearly a decade people said that Sturgeon had a secret plan. Any secret plan she had did not involve independence. I note that you said on WGD how can any request for a sec 30 referendum succeed on a 30 odd percentage vote. The fact that polls are showing independence at 57% shows how so many independence supporters do not trust Swinney. Also to think any PM in Westminster will agree a referendum when polls are saying 57% yes and they will likely lose is delusional.
The answer since 2020 has always been a de facto referendum.
The thing I dislike about Swinney is his longstanding opposition to independence. Ask around in the party. His reputation as the most gradual of all the gradualists took him decades to earn.
Anas is a snake, as proved with his failed attempt on Starmer.
Offord is the worst of the worst. Peerage by money. Defected to the right wing nasties etc.
Cole-scuttle spends his way through elections better than all the others, and for a supposed Liberal, is decidedly nasty, including swearing in a committee.
Ross Greer? Nah!
SNP 1/2. If it fails, it fails. But it won't fail because of splitting the vote to parties that ride the coat tails and then forget their Indy pledges. That includes Alba, who targeted the SNP more than the other parties.
If there's a guarantee of all constituencies in a given region going to the SNP, I'd maybe consider another, but there's no guarantees, so SNP 1/2 for me.
So a question in relation to Reform UK in Scotland for May's elections
Why is it that there is still no candidate list that has been announced from them for May's elections in Scotland ?
Not even sure where their 'leader' in Scotland , Malcolm Offord, is to to stand as a candidate.
So what's the big secret........or the problem ?
Is it to be a case of more defected Tory Councillors , now Reform UK Councillors in Scotland, to be their candidates in May, as then that will result in more by-elections in Councils.....like perhaps a certain Thomas Kerr.
I read in January that "Farage said about 100 Scottish candidates had undergone vetting and training in London".
("Training in London"....as in they will receive training on how to lie or how to verbally attack the person asking the question , if , that is , they do not know the answer or if they do not want to give an answer to the Q)
That sounds about right for Reform UK , but not so much for Scotland surely ?
However if it is true that they have these candidates already, then why not announce who they, the 100 'Scottish' candidates are , as time is running out....and not much time for the public to then scrutinise them as individuals..........or is that the idea ?
Mind you I suspect that some voters in Scotland who do intend to vote for Reform UK , will do this with no intention of ever bothering to try to scrutinise the respective candidates standing for Reform UK within their areas .
Honestly it is always the same people who try to spoil , as in make things worse, for all of us in Scotland with those whom they choose to vote for......time and time again.
Unless I’m reading the data tables incorrectly, the sample population is 468. That’s absolute garbage. A standard, full Scottish poll has a standard population sample of c. 1,000. A standard, UK, MRP poll has a population sample of c. 17,000. A Scottish MRP poll would require a pro rata sample population of c. 1,360. The Stonehaven exercise has a third of the requisite population sample for an MRP poll.
The sample size is only 468 which is just under the normal size of circa 1000 respondents, so a little health warning there.
Assuming 95% confidence that would suggest a tolerance of +/-4.5% around the estimate rather than the usual +/-3%.
On the other hand the data are not weighted by past voting history such as the (now relatively ancient) Scottish Independence and Brexit referendum results as well as prior elections (both Westminster and Holyrood) so there should be potentially less distortion caused by false recall.
I see the Bath Balloon has temporarily shifted away from his pin-ups in Reform and is now begging, cajoling and indeed even schooling Scottish Labour supporters in the best way, as he sees it, to vote tactically against the SNP in May.
Campbell would happily sell Scotland down the river, shut the Scottish Parliament, reverse devolution itself and revert us Scots back to the tender mercies of a unionist WM Parliament, just to try to destroy the SNP.
He is nothing more than a demented, obssessive, turncoated scumbag who should be completely disowned by the Yes Movement.
He is now, without any shadow of doubt, our enemy..
Compare the snp now and a few years ago when ALBA was going to sweep all aside. John Swinney has been the steady hand when needed most in my view. I actually heard a long life labour supporter talking about voting SNP due to Starmers mishandling but also to Swinney’s steadiness.
The big problem with trying to predict the list is - analysing the 2011 actual list results - and working out divisors and nett percentages for each list seat actually won by the SNP.
ReplyDeleteWith for instance 8 seats won in a region, the divisor is 9. If the percentage list vote is 36%, the nett % is 4.0, but if the vote is 45% the nett % is 5.0.
In 2011 Central Scotland with 6 constituency seats, 3 list seats were won with divisors of 7, 8 and 9 - nett percentages 6.6%, 5.8% and 5.2%.
H&I with 6 constituency, 3 list seats divisors 7, 8 and 9 - 6.8%, 5.9% and 5.4%.
Mid Scot with 8 constituency, still got 1 list seat divisor 9 nett 5.0%.
NE Scotland with 10, yes, all 10 constituency seats still got 1 list seat with divisor 11 nett 4.8%.
@Yi2. It's not a percentage procedure anyway. There isn't a threshold you're trying to hit (as there is in STV), rather at every stage it's "simply" the party with the most votes / seats +1 who gets the next seat.
DeleteSo it's really as much about how the other parties are doing as just your own vote. Anyone without their first seat yet is at a huge arithmetic advantage. With Labour, Tories, Liberals, Greens and now Farage's boys in the mix, a lot of list seats will be won by parties with low divisors, many at just 1.
I reckon this election will be the toughest ever for the SNP to win any list seats at all. So much easy pickings in the constituencies and so much contention on the list.
Just to make it clear - this is not comparison or projection, it actually happened in 2011.
DeleteIt's the way I tell 'em! Specially at a sleepless 5 in the morning.
Fair points well made, but there are always twenty shillings to the pound.
Delete"With Labour, Tories, Liberals, Greens and now Farage's boys in the mix"
DeleteThere's still only 100% in, well, errr, 100%.
If the SNP got 45% on the list, then there's more parties now to share out that other 55%. If others (Your party, family, Alba, loonies) get 6% between them, and the others shared the remaining 49% equally to make the arithmetic easy, they'd all get 9.8% for the first seat, get one seat each on the list, but then their divisor would be 2 not 1, for a nett 4.9% - and the SNP get the 6th seat (of 7) with 5.0% (8 constituency seats for a divisor of 9).
Using percentages means you don't have to invent numbers of votes for each party.
Unlike some of our regulars, I don't have an especially negative view of John Swinney - I think he's something of a relief after the personality cults of Salmond and Sturgeon, and whatever Humza was - but his electoral record is pretty gash. Is it really plausible that this guy, someone who has lost seats in every single one of the five (I believe) national elections over which he has presided as leader, could win the most spectacular victory in the history of the Scottish Parliament?
ReplyDeleteLet's hope he can pull it off, though. Either he really does have an amazing secret plan and we'll have a referendum, or the whole thing will be exposed as a breathtakingly cynical ploy. Both would be a reckoning, I think
Personally I think it's pretty amazing what John Swinney has achieved - to his credit.
DeleteCome on KEATON you know find well that if he pulls off an SNP majority it will be because Reform have split the Britnat vote, even more than previously, so the SNP can win nearly all the seats in the first past the post constituency part of the election. It's nothing to do with Swinney as the SNP are still in the 30%s in the polls.
DeleteSurely you don't believe in a secret plan. For nearly a decade people said that Sturgeon had a secret plan. Any secret plan she had did not involve independence. I note that you said on WGD how can any request for a sec 30 referendum succeed on a 30 odd percentage vote. The fact that polls are showing independence at 57% shows how so many independence supporters do not trust Swinney. Also to think any PM in Westminster will agree a referendum when polls are saying 57% yes and they will likely lose is delusional.
The answer since 2020 has always been a de facto referendum.
kept the seat warm for alex last time
Deleteproved himself less useless than the total binfire humsa
played interference for "madame mcmao" and her crimes with his big black redactor pen
what a legacy - another wallace, another bruce
The thing I dislike about Swinney is his longstanding opposition to independence. Ask around in the party. His reputation as the most gradual of all the gradualists took him decades to earn.
DeleteAye he’s achieved the square root of sfa and he never will. Look at his past record of him being in power. Inspiring ae.
DeleteGiven the alternatives, Swinney isnae too bad.
DeleteAnas is a snake, as proved with his failed attempt on Starmer.
Offord is the worst of the worst. Peerage by money. Defected to the right wing nasties etc.
Cole-scuttle spends his way through elections better than all the others, and for a supposed Liberal, is decidedly nasty, including swearing in a committee.
Ross Greer? Nah!
SNP 1/2. If it fails, it fails. But it won't fail because of splitting the vote to parties that ride the coat tails and then forget their Indy pledges. That includes Alba, who targeted the SNP more than the other parties.
If there's a guarantee of all constituencies in a given region going to the SNP, I'd maybe consider another, but there's no guarantees, so SNP 1/2 for me.
57% for independence - good. We should be having a de facto referendum for independence.
ReplyDeleteSwinney will do nothing, whatever the election result, about independence - bad.
Will SNP numpty members finally wake up from their self inflicted delusion - ??
How high would the yes vote be if there actually was an independence campaign RIGHT NOW.
So a question in relation to Reform UK in Scotland for May's elections
ReplyDeleteWhy is it that there is still no candidate list that has been announced from them for May's elections in Scotland ?
Not even sure where their 'leader' in Scotland , Malcolm Offord, is to to stand as a candidate.
So what's the big secret........or the problem ?
Is it to be a case of more defected Tory Councillors , now Reform UK Councillors in Scotland, to be their candidates in May, as then that will result in more by-elections in Councils.....like perhaps a certain Thomas Kerr.
I read in January that "Farage said about 100 Scottish candidates had undergone vetting and training in London".
("Training in London"....as in they will receive training on how to lie or how to verbally attack the person asking the question , if , that is , they do not know the answer or if they do not want to give an answer to the Q)
That sounds about right for Reform UK , but not so much for Scotland surely ?
However if it is true that they have these candidates already, then why not announce who they, the 100 'Scottish' candidates are , as time is running out....and not much time for the public to then scrutinise them as individuals..........or is that the idea ?
Mind you I suspect that some voters in Scotland who do intend to vote for Reform UK , will do this with no intention of ever bothering to try to scrutinise the respective candidates standing for Reform UK within their areas .
Honestly it is always the same people who try to spoil , as in make things worse, for all of us in Scotland with those whom they choose to vote for......time and time again.
Unless I’m reading the data tables incorrectly, the sample population is 468.
ReplyDeleteThat’s absolute garbage. A standard, full Scottish poll has a standard population sample of c. 1,000.
A standard, UK, MRP poll has a population sample of c. 17,000. A Scottish MRP poll would require a pro rata sample population of c. 1,360. The Stonehaven exercise has a third of the requisite population sample for an MRP poll.
The sample size is only 468 which is just under the normal size of circa 1000 respondents, so a little health warning there.
ReplyDeleteAssuming 95% confidence that would suggest a tolerance of +/-4.5% around the estimate rather than the usual +/-3%.
On the other hand the data are not weighted by past voting history such as the (now relatively ancient) Scottish Independence and Brexit referendum results as well as prior elections (both Westminster and Holyrood) so there should be potentially less distortion caused by false recall.
I see the Bath Balloon has temporarily shifted away from his pin-ups in Reform and is now begging, cajoling and indeed even schooling Scottish Labour supporters in the best way, as he sees it, to vote tactically against the SNP in May.
ReplyDeleteCampbell would happily sell Scotland down the river, shut the Scottish Parliament, reverse devolution itself and revert us Scots back to the tender mercies of a unionist WM Parliament, just to try to destroy the SNP.
He is nothing more than a demented, obssessive, turncoated scumbag who should be completely disowned by the Yes Movement.
He is now, without any shadow of doubt, our enemy..
Compare the snp now and a few years ago when ALBA was going to sweep all aside. John Swinney has been the steady hand when needed most in my view. I actually heard a long life labour supporter talking about voting SNP due to Starmers mishandling but also to Swinney’s steadiness.
ReplyDeleteBreaking News -
ReplyDeleteLast week in Buffalo Trump's ICE thugs picked up a BLIND refugee, who walked with a walking stick.
Then, after realizing he couldn't be deported, they dumped him five miles from his home in the freezing, bitter cold.
The poor, innocent soul DIED trying to make his way back to his house.
Remember, Farage/Reform want to model their new UK ICE on the murderous American model.
Reform are, withoutdoubt, a Fascist Party.