Just a quick note to let you know that I have an analysis piece at The National about the new independence poll that the paper has commissioned from Find Out Now, and which has Yes comfortably ahead by 53% to 47%. You can read the article HERE.
I'll try to make a video about the poll at some point as well, but with the usual mayhem of this time of year I'm not sure exactly when I'll manage it.
With SNP again doing well, pro-indy HR majority in 2026 looking a good bet and now this substantial Yes lead, not a bad way to end 2025.
ReplyDeleteWith Westminster polling (at present) indicating a RefUK landslide, and social attitude polling showing a sizeable portion of the UK electorate holding ethno-nationalist positions (as defined by voting rights only by nation of birth), * the question of the franchise for (an increasingly unlikely) Indyref II, should be clear.
ReplyDeleteLeaving moral considerations aside **, a predominantly middle class, English diaspora resident in Scotland are more likely to vote Yes in reaction against an Anglo, ethno-nationalist regime in London.
* 10% of RefUK voters think you can only be truly British if you’re white.
** The 2014 franchise for better or worse set a precedent, and no work was done before that to explain that constitutional refereda in European countries are generally restricted to applicants who have received Citizenship status, and are long term residents.
No "work was done" to "explain" that for the very good reason that Alex Salmond opposed that kind of rigged franchise on principle. In any case, there is no Scottish citizenship and there won't be one until independence, so you can't limit the franchise on the basis of a fictitious citizenship that people wish existed but doesn't.
DeleteHear hear, James.
DeleteIf we're Indy polling too close for comfort, with the meltdown of the UK now starkly apparent, then it's on us and our *leadership* to grasp the thistle and push, like we did in 2011-2014.
We don’t win Indy by half arsing it. Talk about denying English born Scots their vote is self destructive. The folk we need aboard is all of Scotland as it is today.
Now that the ethno-supremacist regime in the Zionist state has banned more than 30, respectable, mainstream, aid organisations from Gaza, and the West Bank *, will Tel Aviv Keith do anything other than mump his gums, or will his handlers in the Israeli Embassy ensure his compliance to their agenda?
ReplyDelete* including the International Rescue Committee headed up by David Milliband, very much a scion of the New Labour faction which spawned Starmer.
More in Common, Westminster voting intention, field work 19 - 23 Dec.
ReplyDeleteUK headlines; RefUK 6% lead, -3% week on week, Tories overtake Labour as opposition, RefUK continue precipitous decline on the Wiki, best fit curves.
Scottish sub-sample (115)
Con 12%, Lab 17%, LibDem 14%, RefUK 19%, Green 5%, SNP 31%.
Interestingly there is absolutely no narrative building around this from the SNP or Scottish government.
ReplyDeleteIf you asked the ordinary person in the street I doubt they’d know most polls suggest a majority want independence but would know their local hotel has migrants in it.
Also what’s the plan for EU Scottish English border? What’s the currency view now? All of these things were being worked on when independence was a real proposition. None of the big issues are worked through. We could be allowed a referendum tomorrow and the SNP have not done the homework. Where’s the council of economic advisors like Salmond set up? Where’s the broad campaign? The SNP have stopped making the case and been cowed into thinking it’s way off. If the won’t build the infrastructure for a broad yes movement no one else will.
@9:07
DeleteWell spotted!
The narrative building, and the hard work, all seems like so long ago, doesn't it? I mind 2014 very well. Life long independence supporter, but politically disengaged at that time in my life, the Yes Movement came to my door and made the case right to me! Everyone was talking about it. Anti-independence friends (I’m from Edinburgh) were asking me the same questions you just raised, and obviously I couldn't answer them any better then than now. To think that work still hasn't been done, now, a GENERATION later?
The bit where I disagree with you is your final sentence. I don't think that's something we mere foot soldiers can do. The public, rightly, has a "diddy filter" when it comes to folk on their doorstep or making the case from a stall on the high street. First, before they'll hear a word, they want to know "Who's speaking?" Is it the SNP? Is it the Scottish Government? Is it someone relevant with the power and recognition to actually DO THE THINGS they're telling us are so important? Or is it just some rando and his wee ginger dug? Fight the good fight, Braveheart! Show us your cardboard claymore, eh!
I voted Alba in 2021. Salmond's last charge! I’m a hopeless romantic, too. I was gutted so few did. It taught me a lesson, though. Scotland's not listening. Not to any "Yes Movement" that's not the SNP.
That's our point of failure. We need someone hungry for Independence at the top. Not all this prancing down the cursed path to "Other Stuff" we've had since 2014.
That's my point, we need the snp to make a broad yes movement get off the ground but the snp by itself can't expect to gain enough kudos (after 20 years of the mill stone of govt) to get the substantial support needed. Yet any "fresh" campaign can't get off the ground without sunstantial snp backing.
DeleteI just fail to see how in a post supreme Court, post 2014 referendum world how the snp gets us to independence. I dont agree with killing it off like wings but I think there is some truth to the concept they're a busted brand when it comes to gaining the momentum to have scotland's people supportive to the extent we'll break the UK.
Something new is needed.
53% you say. Whoopie bloody doo and what will John Swinney and the SNP do with this. SFA but dangle more carrots with the looney green tail wagging the SNP dog. I seriously despair
ReplyDeleteAch there's always Liberate Scotland.
DeleteI don’t think you do.What is your plan? Oh! Don’t have one. Still as a loony right winger you can go to the corner of your room and stamp your feet.
DeleteThere are several options for the SNP they just don't do them. If you think there is no viable plan as you suggest then you're just backing another section 30 request. Is that really enough for you? I would imagine iare just as frustrated as the rest of us, but really it is up to the SNP to lead or at least be honest and tell us they don't know what to do.
Deleteif so many people want indy, there could be a MASSIVE gap in the marke t for a PRO INDY party, to complement the devolutionist-grifter collective, life hating death cult, little englander empire loyalists and undifferentiated yoon-sloop (SNP, Greens, Reform, Labour/Tory/Libdem)
ReplyDeleteThe problem is well identified in the polls:
DeleteShould Scotland be an Independent country? YES!
Do you think Independence is likely soon? Naw.
How do you put the voters off something? Dangle it in front of them for a decade and never deliver it! Labour taught the SNP far too many things over the years. "Socialism tomorrow" is the worst one on the list.
How's the ISP these days ?
DeleteWOS and its idiot in chief reaching new level of desperation today in his most recent gibberish. Anyone who ever wondered what cognitive dissonance looks like in action, have a look at his ranting. As always his merry band of morons are on hand with posts ranging from bizarre to downright crazy. Their number is diminishing noticeably as even some former WOS gullibles realise Campbell is a half wit. No doubt there will be another men in skirts article by Campbell along soon. He needs the money, and it’s coming from a decreasing number of disciples, so he needs it more often. His fetish for articles about men in skirts hasn’t wained, unlike his fanbase.
ReplyDeleteHistory will show exactly what Alex Salmond was, and most of you won't like it
ReplyDeleteI see Campbell's pal, fat boy Mcmenemy is already busy defending that other fat bag of ex-Tory slime Offord's 'rational views'.
ReplyDeleteMake no mistake, the dregs of Alba and the dross of Wings are about to jump ship to their natural home among the racist fascist filth of Reform.
Only surprise is it took them so long.
Shit attracts shit.
Mcmenemy:
"Good read. Some of the abuse toward @Malcolm_Offord has been hysterical. Disagree with him on the constitution but has completely mainstream rational views on business and the economy."
Apologies, should have read 'McEleny'
ReplyDelete