GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov):
Reform UK 28% (-)
Labour 21% (-)
Conservatives 18% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 15 (-1)
Greens 10% (-)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
Scottish subsample: SNP 38%, Reform UK 19%, Labour 16%, Liberal Democrats 10%, Conservatives 10%, Greens 3%
That's yet another stellar result for the SNP, and although Labour are several points higher than last week, that's not a genuine recovery, it's just sampling variation caused by the huge margin of error. The more subsamples that show Labour well below 20%, the more likely that's where they actually are, which is a catastrophic position for them to be in.
There's been a commenter on this blog who keeps reacting to these subsamples by saying things like "another disaster for the Greens, they're on course for wipeout next year", but that's not really the case. The subsamples are specifically about Westminster voting intentions, and there's no reason to doubt that the Greens are still polling much higher on the Holyrood regional list, which is where their true strength lies.
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Encouraging to see KC's location remain just south of Buckinghamshire.
ReplyDeleteBut the SNP won't deliver independence. They have no desire, no standout talent. No hope of 50%+. Just a depressing bunch of colonial administrators. Sad.
ReplyDeleteYou seem like a joyous soul. The type who lights up a room... by leaving it.
DeleteThe SNP nor any political party can or will "deliver" independence, that's for the people of Scotland to do
DeletePolitical parties just do the negotiating
Swinney's motion must be amended, we agree on this.
ReplyDeleteBut as a side effect, every poll since the announcement of the motion has the Greens going backwards
There haven't been any full-scale polls since the motion was announced. No polls for two whole months, in fact.
Deleteanother disaster for the Greens, they're on course for wipeout next year
ReplyDeleteEncouraging for the SNP and although it is a subsample it is in line with the Yougov sample as far as the SNP is concerned. I think both Labour and the Tories face wipe out in Scotland.
ReplyDeleteThe three poll rolling average for the SNP is 38% and the largest since YouGov started polling after the GE. Their lead over Labour stands at 24 points, the largest by some margin. Their lead over Reform is 21 points, their joint second strongest so far
ReplyDeleteThat is absolutely sickening. It makes me wonder what the hell Baroness Lidl was thinking when she pushed Robert Maxwell into the ladies' toilet in Edinburgh. How do you go from socialist firebrand to Robert Maxwell's arse wiper? Better ask Mags 'Realpolitik' Curran or her BFF Joanne 'Smiler' Lamont.
DeleteRefUK friendly polling outfit Find Out Now.
ReplyDeleteWestminster voting intention, field work 20th August.
RefUK with a record breaking 15% lead.
Labour labouring at a miserable 18%.
Scottish sub-sample (121)
Con 10%, Lab 14%, LibDem 11%, RefUK 18%, Green 14% (shome mishtake surely!), SNP 28%
Best poll yet for the Scottish Greens. They could get a dozen MSPs with a result like that.
DeleteAny danger the Herald is going to incredibly urgently correct its misleading headline and totally incorrect first paragraph of this:
ReplyDeletehttps://archive.is/KdTeW
Perhaps the clowns will have corrected it by the time you look - and apologise and print a retraction.
Nae Alba I notice.
ReplyDeleteThe reform vote is holding firm on the face of it.
ReplyDeleteJames do you not think Swinney needs to act now as in 4 years time Reform could form the next UK gov and they will just revise the Scotland act. I think this is inevitable.
I know this will rankle with many of your contributers but the late Effie Deans predicted that Labour would make an arse of the economy and at the following election they would get booted out of power and that the Conseratives would then take back control. But before she died it was not clear that Reform would suddenly take what is now a commanding lead in the UK polls. She predicted that Reform would be a flash in the pan.
No matter how you dress this up Reform are cutting through, this week the Scottish BBC had a phone in on immigration and the protest in Falkirk Therewas also a guy that was "left wing" from East Kilbride who said he has seen immigrants in the Buruce Hotel hanging out and holding hands with school kids.. and he just said I'm "socialist" but that is wrong and we can all see it.
The SNP have no real achievements to point to other than baby boxes that they robbed from the Scadinavians and then diluted. What happened to the bikes for the kids thing?
My gut feeling is that there are a lot of silent voters in Scotland that don't want to come out and say.. hey we like the populist Reform offering. They don't belong to the lanyard class.. see Sandie Peggy.
Swinney must see the writing on the wall, this is Indy's last chance for a long time. The economy is tanking, unemployment is going up.. we will and already are feeling this first in Scotland. Small business are struggling with the extra NI contributions.. it's hurting and lots are saying.. I'll give Reform a chance.
To counter we need to see some real innovation from the SNP. I note you are a delegate now! Have you any plans on how things can be turned around?
I know this will rankle with many of your contributers but the late Effie Deans predicted that Labour would make an arse of the economy and at the following election they would get booted out of power and that the Conseratives would then take back control. But before she died
DeleteWait, wait, wait. Effie Deans is deid???
Hi K C.
DeleteYou took Effie Deans seriously ? Jeez...
DeleteI never realised Effie Deans was a real person. I thought it was just a troll account. Was that their real name?
DeleteThe stupidity of the fake rev has reared its head again. He has created a straw man worthy of the Wicker man, then tortuously arrived at conclusions that no one other than the frothers would believe. Here is the reality. A S, when under the influence of alcohol, which was often, behaved inappropriately towards women. He paid a massive price for this. His conduct was not found to be criminal. No one of credibility claims otherwise. The matter is finished, unless you want to squeeze even more money out of idiots by making up a conspiracy theory. The truth is too simple, and not what some people want to believe. The N S haters should console themselves. Her legacy is one of dishonesty, deceit and incompetence. Her book actually provides the evidence of this. The Indy movement needs to move on. The conspiracy within the cabal in SNP is what should be of interest to Indy supporters. J S has put Indy on the back burner for the foreseeable future, and ordinary party members are powerless to challenge this. The gender brigade continue to try to deny the sound Supreme Court ruling, despite the SNP SG bringing in legislation acknowledging and implementing it. Content yourselves that Sturgeons saintly image is now that of a sinner. She will not be forgiven, and she knows it. Our problem is where we go from here. I want a party with Indy as its number one policy. I want a party relentless in it’s pursuit of Indy. No such party presently exists. What can we do?
ReplyDeleteat 1.17pm - you want a party relentless in its pursuit of indy. You say no such party presently exists. The big question is - there are allegedly thousands of people in an existing movement who desire this relentless pursuit of indy - so in all these years, why haven't those declaring themselves to be in this relentless pursuit not already formed this relentless pursuit of indy party? Why do they pussy foot around carping that nobody has done it - but have not taken on forming a party themselves? This is the puzzle surely.
DeleteLess encouraging are the actual votes in actual ballot boxes in East Renfrewshire. RefUK is eating deep into the SNP vote.
ReplyDeleteThat’s just a lie you silly billy boy. Should you not be over in Falkirk threatening people that don’t look like you?
DeleteIs N S really incapable of framing any discussion other than on a “men is pigs” basis? Even Jeremy Corbyn is apparently a sneering condescending MAN. My emphasis. The more she reveals about herself the worse I feel about having supported her role in Scottish politics. I did stop that support about three years ago when the entire gender shambles began to surface. The damage she and her gender brigade have caused to the Indy movement is incalculable. Sadly she will not be held accountable. At least her character has been exposed. Her legacy is one of lies, dishonesty, incompetence and discrimination. Truly appalling.
ReplyDeleteAnon at 9.15 am ... If you had to state your actual name, I reckon your post would have been very differently worded. Time to terminate your infatuation with NS.
Deleteat 9.15am You say 'Sadly she will not be held accountable'. Interestingly, it seems that all of Scotland is resting comfortably back happy to see Nicola Sturgeon being scapegoated as the only individual in the whole country being held accountable for absolutely everything and she must be 'wheesht' in order that many opportunist bums on seats out there are absolved from their own 'what's in it for me' self-interested past and present activities which people appear to be far less interested in looking at more closely or fessing up to. Lucky for them all eager to join the 'it wis aw that Nicola' bandwagon. Scotland seems to be awash these days with saints sporting shiny haloes and pious attitudes. What a blessed wee nation we seem to suddenly be. Who'd have thunk it!
DeleteCorbyn did refuse to debate Brexit with either Nicola Sturgeon or Caroline Lucas. You can interpret that in different ways.
DeleteI suspect you will often find in these situations, that the perception of a woman is different to that of a man.
Anon at 12.05. You are all over the place. Make your mind up. Anon at 5.15. Inane and vacuous. And you need to look up the meaning of infatuation. Former F M releases autobiography but no one is to talk about it? From her own words Sturgeon reveals her true character. It is one of dishonesty, incompetence and intolerance. She has set Indy back at least a decade.
DeleteAnon at 12.38. At least a decade? You know that for certain. Show your statistics on how you worked that one out…….a wee daft unionist twists rumour into more rumour into hatred and bile into reformist extreme far right supporting nazism!!! Ya mug!!!
DeleteWhy is it that those defending N S simply attack those criticising her but never address the substantive issues. She has been shown to be dishonest, manipulative and incompetent. She clearly has a major “men is pigs” issue, astounding for someone who occupied her position. She has caused so much damage. Ironically her supporters are telling her critics to “wheeesht”.
DeleteIf Corbyn's party takes off it could change things for independence
ReplyDeleteIf as he says they're up for an indyref then it gives voters another option rather than being stuck with the SNP especially as this promises to be a socialist party.
Anon 2.08. Corbyn will never agree to giving Scotland independence. It is all rhetoric. He is just another not registered in Scotland party trying to split votes. So what if he is a socialist, what about the Scottish Socialist Party or do they not count?
DeleteThere's nothing socialist about Jeremy Corbyn, he's an English champagne socialist
DeleteAnd why would any person with half a brain want socialism anyway, it clearly doesn't work or we'd be going our holidays to Russia instead of Spain
Nothing to do with the climate, then? Also: Spain currently has a socialist government and Russia doesn't.
DeleteYou'll have to forgive Dr Jim. He thinks it's still the days of the Soviet Union.
DeleteWT not WY at 2.08. Anon 9.38 the man is a socialist. As for champers he is fairly teetotal. I'll grant you he's not the stuff or real leadership but at present only one man has those skills and that's Farage. The rest are bland nothings.Farage may have leadership skills but his political views are odious. Who wants socialism? People with a full brain, the half brains don't. The half brains don't want a fairer society. The half brainers want to keep people in their place a good old stratified class based system where the rich get richer, the poor get poorer and - only through an accident of birth - live seven to ten years less than the rich. I don't like that. So what about you?
DeleteAnon 3.08 - nothing wrong with the Scottish Socialist Party at all - as for Corbyn's party, we'll have to see what his manifesto is. If it is indyref friendly then fair enough, if not then we'll know. But that's quite different to a supposedly independence party not having a clue how to further the cause. Presently, there's little difference in outcome voting for the SNP than voting for any other party, spoiling your ballot paper or staying home and watching telly - in every case you don't get any advance on independence.
DeleteEncouraging results for the SNP in recent polls, well ahead of the other political parties. Consistent.
ReplyDeleteThe good poll performance for the SNP is indicative of John Swinney's strengths. He has shown commitment to public service over many years. He deserves credit for his calm style, hard work and fairness. Even people who disagree with him 100% respect his honesty and patience. His dedication has helped increase support for the SNP.
ReplyDeleteYou forgot to mention his prongs. He's got three of them, apparently.
DeleteWhile wanging on about toilets again, The Big Dug's faithful companion now says he was goosed by a number of women when he was younger, while trying to make out that women are as predatory as men.
ReplyDeleteBtw, I predict Skier will transition by the end of the year.
If you say so Rev.
DeleteSo you stalk skier as well. You love anything sexual it seems.
ReplyDeleteThe Party of Men in Frocks and Men in women's loos are getting humped up the their Wokist arses next May. I see a lot of wishful thinking from Alphabet Wokists.
ReplyDeleteHow's the weather in Bath ?
DeleteSo much vulgarity. So much ugliness. What an unhappy posting.
DeleteA Reform party member opines.
DeleteI was Whitney Houstons best friend in school when she was still a boy.
DeleteSturgeon says in her book that right from the start of her stint as FM she never thought she would deliver indyref2. Yet year after year and election after election she dangled the indyref2 carrot in front of the gullible to get votes and money.
ReplyDeleteThat just makes her another fraudulent politician making promises she knows she will not deliver on.
I have the feeling the SNP are going to suffer next year for constantly telling us how much they love immigrants whether they have visas, whether they are here applying for visas (100,000), or whether they are here and have had their visa applications rejected (40,000 of the latter, who are now presumably illegal).
ReplyDeleteI don't think saying that they are all great in statements that completely lack nuance chimes with the public.
I always think of this when I think of Sturgeon, Lloyd, the alphabetties, wark, garavelli ...
ReplyDeleteThe fundamental defect of the female character is a LACK OF A SENSE OF JUSTICE. This originates first and foremost in their want of rationality and capacity for reflection but it is strengthened by the fact that, as the weaker sex, they are driven to rely not on force but on cunning: hence their INSTINCTIVE SUBTLETY AND THEIR INERADICABLE TENDENCY TO TELL LIES: for, as nature has equipped the lion with claws and teeth, the elephant with tusks, the wild boar with fangs, the bull with horns and the cuttlefish with ink, so it has equipped woman with the power of dissimulation as her means of attack and defense, and has transformed into this gift all the strength it has bestowed on man in the form of physical strength and the power of reasoning.
DISSIMULATION IS THUS INBORN in her and consequently to be found in the stupid woman almost as often as in the clever one. To make use of it at every opportunity is as natural to her as it is for an animal to employ its means of defence whenever it is attacked, and WHEN SHE DOES SO SHE FEELS THAT TO SOME EXTENT SHE IS ONLY EXERCISING HER RIGHTS. A COMPLETELY TRUTHFUL WOMAN WHO DOES NOT PRACTICE DISSIMULATION IS PERHAPS AN IMPOSSIBILITY, WHICH IS WHY WOMEN SEE THROUGH THE DISSIMULATION OF OTHERS SO EASILY IT IS INADVISABLE TO ATTEMPT IT WITH THEM. But this fundamental defect which I have said they possess, together with all that is associated with it, gives rise to falsity, unfaithfulness, treachery, ingratitude, etc. WOMEN ARE GUILTY OF PERJURY FAR MORE OFTEN THAN MEN. IT IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THEY OUGHT TO BE ALLOWED TO TAKE AN OATH AT ALL.
Wha wid be Russell Findlay, Leader of the Tories in Holyrood?
ReplyDeleteTwo MSPs resign in as many months citing a drift to the Right they find intolerable, now Graham Simpsons defects to the Faragistas.
“Clowns to the left of me, racists to the right, here I am stuck in the off centre right with you.”.
Westminster voting intention, YouGov, field work 25 - 26 August
ReplyDeleteLabour -1%, to 20%. A YouGov, all time low for Tel Aviv Keith.
Oh oh. RefUK edge closer to a clear 10% lead on the best fit curves.
Keef is weewly, weewly, angwy with his best buddy Bibi for the lastest atwosity.
Fine words butter no parsnips, Keith, how’s about some action?
Scottish sub-sample (122)
Con 9%, Lab 17%, LibDem 11%, SNP 32%, RefUK 19%, Green 8%