One of the regular features of recent Scottish subsamples in GB-wide polls is just how appallingly badly the Scottish Tories are doing - it's not uncommon to see them behind the Liberal Democrats in fifth place. It's unlikely that they'll be wiped out completely at next year's Holyrood election, ie. they're not polling as poorly as Alba yet, but I don't think that can be totally ruled out any longer. Each of the three defections/departures from the Tory MSP ranks has created a sense of reverse momentum, and has added to an impression of a party on the way out and that no longer serves any real purpose. Right-wing voters can follow Graham Simpson to Reform UK (and most of them already have done), while the more liberal type of voter won over by Ruth Davidson ten years ago has a natural home in the Liberal Democrats, who are more than ultra-unionist enough to cater for even the most frothing Brit Nat "liberal".
Reform now have their second MSP, but it might as well be their first given that Michelle Bannatyne was attached to the party in what feels like a different world. They now have a Scottish figurehead of sorts to build their campaign and organisation around - but I still think any Reform success next year is likely to indirectly work in the SNP's favour.
Campaign group Defend Our Juries are in de facto proscription (Palestine Action are already in de jure proscription). Defend Our Juries’ website is under attack, and attempts to organise via Zoom are being blocked.
ReplyDeleteWe live in a Stasi state
According to insider, Labour sources, the vast majority of Labour MPs feel they were tricked into proscribing Palestine Action, by mendacious means deployed by a hardcore of 20 or so Zionist MPs, and Ministers who have taken over the Parliamentary Party.
How were Labour MPs tricked into voting for proscription? The issue received a lot of coverage beforehand, and everything has unfolded pretty much as was predicted. Is it possible they didn't understand the government's intentions? I mean who are these dumb-dumbs
DeleteReform are a British nationalist party. They have nothing to offer Scotland, although the impressionable types up here may fall for Farage's lies.
ReplyDeleteThere will be plenty “falling” for them, going by the polls. Even more in Wales.
DeleteOf course, sneering at “Maga” voters did the Democrats a lot of good in America. Surely no one in their right, uncancelled, non-deplatformed, social media vetted mind could ever vote for *that*. It’s unthinkable. How could we even lose to that?
So we shouldn't mock the English Red Wall who voted for Brexit then Boris Johnson and are going to vote for Farage, even though they suffer through it ? Still, if someone decides to drop a brick on their foot that's up to them.
DeleteAre Alba still a thing? I don't see them mentioned in the media at all since AS died.
ReplyDeleteReform are being clever not to big up their unionism at the moment.
ReplyDeleteCan see them also taking yes voters as well.
Anyone who votes for the right wing racist Reform limited company is not going to be a genuine yes voter in the first place. The problem is the half million indy supporters disillusioned with the SNP. J S is doing nothing to attract them back. If anything he is further alienating them.
DeleteYou can forget about any kind of unionism with Farage There will be no Reform UK when Farage becomes PM, it'll be Reform England and the colonies
DeleteDoes Reform know what they're getting with Graham Simpson? He has to be the most miserable MSP in the whole parliament, unlikely to set any heather on fire.
ReplyDeleteThis is a game changer for Reform in Scotland.
DeleteThe sycophancy demonstrated recently by European leaders and Trump's cabinet members towards Trump is only beaten by the incredibly high level of nicophancy of SNP numpties like Scottish Skier and Dr Jim.
ReplyDeleteAll these people probably laugh at the scenes in China and North Korea as they grovel before their great leader yet cannae see themselves doing the exact same before their own great leader of choice.
Has no one given you a script this week IFS ? are you having to make your own stuff up using your own wee words?
DeleteYou're an intellectual giant alright IFS and a man of few intellectual words as well
DeleteA couple of useless SNP Sturgeon groupies have been upset by IFS telling the truth about them.
DeleteSigning up as anonymous doesn't mean we don't know who you are IFS? you're a very predictable wee Tory troll
Delete"but I still think any Reform success next year is likely to indirectly work in the SNP's favour."
ReplyDeleteIndeed but the questions / observations are:
1/ What are the SNP going to do to forward indy.
2/ Reform seem to be holding around an average of 28 -30% in the UK polls. It's difficult to see how Labour are going to turn this around. In fact it's easier to see how they are about to wreak the economy, not least.
Conservative voters are defecting to Reform and Kemi is not stemming the flow. Thus at the moment it looks like the next UK gov is going to be lead by Reform.
If this happens then they will likely change the Scotland act and is a serious problem for indy.
3/ While the SNP may be the next scot gov unless they clean their stables Reform will just use this as another stick to beat them with.
4/ Take yourself back 18 months 2 years ago.. everyone said Reform were nutters and a flash in the pan.. but what if they start to move towards 35% in the polls? This is a realistic possibility, populist they may be but so was Sturgeon although totally incompetent and she has not advanced the indy cause in any meaningful way.
The Overton window has moved over the last few years, immigration being a hot topic, the economy and say us hamstringing our own oil and gas industry and importing instead.
James times are changing and indy needs a dramatic reajustment in approach. Can you apply the same medicine that you dished out to Alba to the SNP?
Thought for the day.
ReplyDeleteTaking a look at the Herald main page, there's no reference to "far right", whereas on the National there's 4 - plus having it as the actual topic caption to get the keyword search points.
I think, same as Swinney's dreadful emergency summit, it's counter-productive. "Right-wing" on the other hand, is fine, a fair description. Right, centre, left. There's a certain blog that goes on and on about the far right, a blog that is only for the faithful few cheering each other on. "far right bad, far left good".
And that's what word phrases like that are all about - a language fit only for the cult while everyone else looks away and shakes the heid. The anti-Farage cult. And the more it's used, the better he does, as the ordinary punter isn't particularly fond of ANY politician.
Farage does well because he is being actively promoted by the BBC and the MSM, and allowed to spout lies and disinformation on a daily basis. He is never properly challenged. He would last minutes if he was.
DeleteFarage isn't far right?
DeleteThe BBC deserves the credit for the success of Reform and far right English nationalism.. They nurtured and platformed Farage on BBC Scotland's Question Time show. Let's give Pacific Quay a round of applause.
DeleteShouldn't we give BBC Scotland a round of applause for platforming Nigel Farage and nurturing English nationalism on their Question Time show?
DeleteMissed a trick there. "Graham Simpson follows right-wing voters to Reform."
ReplyDeleteGraham Simpson. Political giant.
DeleteJames. Can you shed any light on the state of the branch funds. Is it true they have been depleted to bail out the national funds?
ReplyDeleteHi. You are not in the SNP. What business is it of yours you silly billy? You must be disappointed after last night. Away back to the Daily Record and the Mail.
DeleteIn a rapidly declining British economy where less and less works properly people are getting desperate. Recent boat and hotel events have convinced, pound shop Mussolini, Farage that he can now fully press the racism button and hold it down.
ReplyDeleteWith Starmer amply demonstrating the bankruptcy of conventional politics scapegoating of identifiable minorities is an emotive substitute for answers.
Unfortunately what we are now seeing is how politically effective fueling predjudice can be.
This is what will give so called 'reform' it opportunity in England and , unfortunately, to a lesser extent in Scotland too.
The bland devolutionism of Swinney's 'look at us we are the least bad' offers next to nothing and helps to fuel the mouth foamers.
I still think that trying to dislodge the troughers at the top of the SNP is our best shot in this shambles but matters are becoming so unhinged that even that could change quickly.
Like you, I see the removal of the N S brigade from senior positions within the SNP as essential. The constitution as it stands makes this virtually impossible. The only choice left has already been made by about half a million Indy voters. SNP must be electorally damaged to an extent that leaves no alternative to the resignation, in shame, of the gender brigade and careerist devolutionaries who have so damaged SNP and the Indy cause. We have been set back at least a decade by these people. Their glorious leader has waltzed off into the sunset with a lucrative book deal, still collecting an sizeable MSP salary, and intends relocating to London for further enrichment.
DeleteIf they emptied the swamp who would be left at the bottom of the ditch?
Delete@8:58. Resign and be replaced by WHO? Their handpicked successors? That’s their whole game now. Choke the party and keep it pinned even when their strength is failing.
DeleteI can’t see an alternative to the SNP rising up to Holyrood any time soon. But something has got to give. The situation as it is can’t go on forever. The SNP’s dominance relies on its popularity in Scotland. When one fails, so will the other.
Could Corbyn’s lot seize the initiative on independence, if they clock the MAJORITY support for it across Scotland? I have my doubts but unlike I4I, ISP etc., there’s nothing stopping them.
Aug 28 at 10.00 a.m. - so where the heck is Alba? Latest predictions for Reform UK at Holyrood 2026 is 15-20 seats. How many are Alba and the other alleged independence supporting parties working out there to get? Diluting the SNP or imagining a change of leadership pre the Holyrood 2026 vote is going to achieve a bigger move towards independence is self-delusion. Look at what the detailed focus groups are returning - independence is a 'no no' for voters. Everything has to be geared towards competent governance ie creating a fresh nimble Scottish parliament which can only come about with a new crop of MSPs. There are some real quality ex Westminster SNP candidates who would be ideal for a shake-up - who are already out in their prospective constituencies on the doors and finding that even indy voters want nimble governance and don't think punting independence is a vote winner - so full throttle independence messaging isn't going to get the movement's alleged supposed ideal crop of pro independence cross party candidates a guaranteed election win.
DeleteAs for the NS 'lucrative' book deal. In the book world, a £300,000 advance is not top deal by any means. And if you look at Mr Salmond, he had an MSP and an MP salary, had his book deal, had business investments, had his RT deal and programme, waltzed around the world at leisure, favoured being around London and the UK media platforms on air as opposed to the 'small pond' (apparently) of Holyrood and Scotland, 4 bottle 6 hour lunches, freelanced at choice - and nobody batted an eyelid. So why the faux outrage at wee Nicola? Plenty Scots 'relocate' for further enrichment and a better work/life balance than sticking around in the always moaney whingeing greetin' full of misery Scottish independence bubble - 10 years of that full-on always in the background is enough to make any rational person want to get away. LOL!
The SNP will completely refresh after the 2026 vote and there will be big changes if they get enough of their cohort elected. It would be senseless to make leadership changes before 2026 - especially when any new leadership would still be stuck with the lack of resources the party currently suffers from so they couldn't really enable anything worthwhile prior to the 2026 election. Swinney is bound to incorporate the rebel branches motion into some kind of amendment to his preferred draft motion. All this whining before the conference is just the usual non SNP anti-Swinney bods killing time and muddying the waters of progress and absolutely nothing to do with progressing any move to independence. It's all about managing devolution because they know the conditions to push for independence are not remotely fruitful in current economic conditions.
If the movement set out to seriously weaken the SNP -you are giving Reform UK an open door - and despite what the other Holyrood unionist parties say - they would back Reform UK MSPs to the hilt to have that wee committee in Westminster make the changes they want to Holyrood to make it weaker via a changed Scotland Act etc. They can rip out all of the policies enacted by the SNP, shut down the Scottish Benefits Agency, cancel Frank's Law and every other positive initiative and align everything with Westminster policies. Absolutely everything and anything. They could re-write all of the rules as to how Holyrood works, remove the 'Scottish Government' label and return it to 'Scottish Executive' and do a complete Westminster laws for Holyrood in the United Kingdom. Back to being a full branch office.
DeleteThat's what you have to think ahead about by concentrating on wee stuff like who the SNP leadership are and thinking only 'independence' - you are ignoring what Holyrood actually represents and who it represents. You butt out the SNP instead of full on supporting them - you are supporting the 'there's no need for an administration in Scotland' mob.
Small thinking with big ignored consequences.
M.C. Gainey
DeleteEthel Merman and Barbara Bel Geddes.
DeleteAnon at 10.00. Is it a swamp or a ditch? Make your mind up silly billy.
DeleteI think pro-independence voters should fear the defection of Gordon Stimson to Nigel Farage's Reform UK. Mr Stimson is a parliamentary titan, a powerhouse politician who has left a mark on political life similar to that of a Brian Donohoe or Neil Findlay. Things are going to get tough for the separatists now.
ReplyDeleteAnother week, another Westminster votings intention poll from RefUK friendly, Find Out Now (field work 27th August).
ReplyDeleteRefUK have a 16% lead over Labour. The largest ever from any pollster.
At least they’re consistent, if almost certainly wrong.
Scottish sub-sample (120)
Con 13%, Lab 15%, LibDem 15%, RefUK 19%, Green 1%, SNP 28%
I see an ex-Labour Glasgow City Councillor, ditched by Labour itself for making racist comments, has just slimed into Reform Scotland.
ReplyDeleteRacist dross goes to racist dross.
Nothing to see here.
Where do we stand at the end of August 2025?
ReplyDeleteElectoral Calculus model. Input; Best fit curves from Wiki page, Westminster voting intention.
Finessed to include Scottish average results from recent YouGov sub-samples.
Seats: Con 39, Lab 105, LibDem 61, RefUK 365, Green 6, SNP 47, Others 4, Plaid Cymru 5.
RefUK outright majority. Labour loose three quarters of seats and become substantially a London party. Conservatives become a footnote in history.
Any chinks of light at all?
RefUK have total lockout in Scotland. Electoral map resembles Brexit map. If 30% of UK vote represents high water mark for RefUK, and they get zero MPs in Scotland, why does Farage need Scotland (in strictly electoral sense, forgetting about resources)? Fifty anti RefUK MPs from Scotland could easily be the difference between a second term in office for Farage, and being written off as an interesting experiment (the UK Left will eventually be resurgent).
It’s just a thought experiment, but the Electoral Calculus prediction doesn’t leave Farage at the mercy of Ulster Unionism (and RefUK’s sister party is the loopy TUV). Farage is a gambler and a maverick. Why not do the unthinkable, and authorise a binding IndyRef II (with certain provisions, ie retention of Faslane & Coulport)?
Or better still, get rid of Faslane and Coulport!!!
DeleteAnybody who thinks JS and team are going anywhere are wishful thinking. The SNP is the only show in town. They are playing a canny game just now.
ReplyDeleteOf course the SNP are the only show in town.
DeletePeople who are serious about independence need to get behind the party, and vote for them in the Holyrood election. Those that vote for Micky mouse parties like Alba and ISP just waste their votes, and you have to wonder if they’re serious about independence.
“ playing a canny game just now” aye they are and it’s on Westminster’s side they are playing.
Delete"canny game" should be "cannae game"
DeleteAnon at 12.12. We do have to wonder about ALBA and ISP motives. I would never waste my vote on either. Alba are complete headbangers and when you talk to people about ISP the usual response is who? We don’t need to wonder about SNP intentions. J S set an impossible bar for Indy to progress. If you cannot work out what that means you are part of the problem. You will still be on here mindlessly giving your support to careerists and arguing about toilets in ten years time. Well done you.
DeleteAnon at 5:33pm, is that right? So who do you intend to vote for then? You’re not a yoon by any chance?
Deleteswinney is a master of deception
Delete- he is slower than you think he is
Has anyone given a thought to Nigel Farage as PM in 2028? Who would be Foreign Secretary? Defence Minister? Chancellor? And the rest of the cabinet running the country? Would it make recent US appointments look almost competent by comparison? You get the government you vote for...except north of the Tweed. And if you say it might be good to wake folks up...think about the hardship people are already going through all over the UK. We need to ask questions so people think about their future instead of blaming the scapegoats.
ReplyDeleteJodl, Keitel, Goebbels, Bormann, Monke, Burgdorf, Tommy Robinson, Katie Price, Michael Barrymore
DeleteGenerational changes at the Scottish Greens
ReplyDeletePol Pat had been replaced by Sub-Commandante Beaker.
Comrade Slater has somewhat surprisingly been ousted by 34 year old, Gillian Mackay.
Mackay has an honest to gawd, real Science degree, but then again Slater had a legitimate Engineering degree.
Scotland's most talented politician loses her position as co leader. A dark day for Scottish politics.
Delete"talented"
DeleteI don't think that word means what you think it does.
So Big Bird laid an egg. Chortle.
- has she paid back the 100M she shat over the bed on her failed "take your ginger boattles back to the shoap" - scheme
If she tried to fall over, she would probably float away. Useless at a genetic level. We should deport her back to Canada, maybe it would run out of water.
the greens problem was that they were not radical enough
Deletestop killing trans kids
puberty blockers for all
they crapped out of it, the biggest battle, selling out to this
FASCIST STATE
could the greens not have as their leader that terrifying "woman"(? not sure) who looks like a cassowary with indigestion?
Delete- she had potential, imagine kicking her opponents with her razor sharp spurs and chasing "transphobes" around the Scotsman building at 30mph.
chapman
maggie
Maggie Chapman was Slater's predecessor as co-leader. In fact she was co-leader during the indyref.
Delete