A pro-independence blog by James Kelly - one of Scotland's three most-read political blogs.
Monday, August 4, 2025
Kate Forbes' departure feels like a setback for the SNP and for independence - but can someone seize the moment and transform it into an opportunity?
Today's YouTube commentary is of course about the shock news that Kate Forbes, who would have been one of the two clear frontrunners to succeed John Swinney as First Minister, has taken herself out of contention by announcing she will be stepping down from parliament next year. That leaves the way almost totally clear for Stephen Flynn, which is a problem for two reasons: a) opinion polls show he is less popular with the public than either Forbes or Swinney, possibly because he comes across as more belligerent, and b) while he seems very ambitious, it's ambition for himself and for his party, not ambition to make Scotland an independent country in the very near future. Which is a paradox, because you'd think a man hungry for power would want to be Prime Minister of an independent country, not a First Minister hopelessly constrained by the limitations of the devolved settlement. Could Forbes' departure make space for someone new to enter the mix and present themselves as the alternative to Flynn with a credible roadmap to independence?
This may be a good moment to remind you that in one of my other recent videos, I mentioned that Alex Salmond had apparently reached some kind of understanding with Kate Forbes that if she had won the March 2023 leadership election, Salmond would have returned to the SNP and effectively disbanded the Alba Party. You can watch that video HERE.
But for today's commentary about Forbes' departure, you can listen via the embedded player below, or at this link.
You're bang on correct a out Flynn James, totally a devolutionist. Shame about Forbes, mid you it's a shame about the SNP, you know, the way they turned out.
Is there any key figure currently within the SNP who would make a good leader, push for independence and be an attractive option to all those who left?
Black leaving appeased the right wing of the SNP. Forbes standing down will please the toilet brigade. In my opinion, the only way the SNP and independence regain any impetus is if Flynn becomes deputy with a view to becoming leader within the next few years. I don't much care about the nature of his ambition, at least he has some fire in his belly, at least he gets us talked about. If the insipid McAllan is being lined up for the top job it really is all over.
I have no objections to fire in the belly, I just wish that fire was directed towards independence at the earliest possible date, rather than towards winning devolved elections for its own sake. However I agree that Flynn is preferable to McAllan. I certainly wouldn't dismiss her as "insipid", I think she's got loads to offer but not as leader, or not until later in her career anyway.
Do you now think that Alba ever really intended to be an autonomous political party pushing for independence - or just what they seem to be - a vehicle under the guise of a political party to continue the SNP must be destroyed goal?
Although, journos felt that a LONG time ago, especially when one of Salmond's professional cronies said he was so jealous of Sturgeon being FM that he was prepared to gobble up the SNP, the independence movement, burn the house down and all of Scotland so that nobody but nobody would ever be in a position to either lead the SNP or the independence movement if it wasn't himself. And this from a man who was one of Salmond's defence witnesses - who kind of let some cats out of the bag which induced Salmond to scream at his defence team.
More grist to the revenge of Salmond mill - probably with more to come. Great pity for Scotland and any hope of those who legitimately put aiming for independence above the Salmond revenge saga - which is absolutely nothing to do with the getting of independence.
I had a feeing a while back that Kate might be approaching an important point in her child's development where she would have to make the choice between an all out political career for hersel or being there at all times for the wee one. I am extremely sorry that she won't be at Holyrood after next May. She will be sorely missed but her decision is perfectly understandable.
MÃ iri McAllan has as much personality and clue as Stephen Flynn has scruples and hair. They'd be a total disaster. Neil Gray would put Bisto to shame as he clambered on the limo special with nobody to keep him in check, perhaps the only possibility is Ivan McKee.
Ivan McKee is one of the better Scot Gov ministers. I don't see him as leadership/deputy potential but perhaps for the finance job in the future. Flynn is a shoo-in for deputy. There isn't anybody else remotely suitable.
Not surprised James at the Salmond/Forbes plot. He needed someone in Holyrood to wipe the complaints record and if he couldn't get Cherry her needed Forbes. Alex was always good at spotting useful handmaidens.
I prefer to be optimistic about things, too, James but I can't shake the feeling we're in a very dark place indeed on the road to independence. Darker still because we know what's coming down the pike from England. His name is Prime Minister Nigel Farage.
Hope now relies on persons unknown reviving the SNP's focus on independence, sidelining the cosy devo careerists, demonstrating the Scottish people's majority will for independence, and doing what it takes to force London to engage with it. That's a tall order indeed, for anyone, let alone a stranger.
We can't even get a good turnout for an indy march now. (Or a Palestine demo, going by Edinburgh a few weeks ago.) What is going on? Where's the movement? And where oh where's the party?
I doubt Lesley Riddoch's comment about the 'class thing'' and the 'looked as if it was like the scruffy types that turned up' comment in her latest podcast - unless she was had a smart rethink and edited it out - will do march organisers any favours. She DID say that there was a 'class thing because the SNP didn't endorse the AUOB rallies' - but that's her personal interpretation of why numbers seem to be less on occasion. Her natural virrulent antipathy towards the SNP seems to induce her to imply that SNP members and the SNP think themselves too much of a cut above to attend rallies, but she's very wrong. There are a lot of reasons why people tend to prefer to turn up for the march only - when they can afford it these days, and many just can't afford the travel these days - and not stick around for the rallies. When you hear influencers suggesting the SNP should butt out of events (again was edited out of a previous podcast with hindsight or result of some comments) - then SNP members naturally take that literally. Then the mind changes and it's 'SNP must have told their members not to turn up'. Which again seems just a cover up for the previous 'we don't want any of you' spontaneous expressions. Wanted, absolutely not wanted - then where are they?
People get fed up being labelled as one thing or another according to the emotional frustrations of influencers they respect or respected - and let's face it, when our late Alec chose to fuel the division the day Yousaf was attending some royal do as FM in London - and Alec's rousing get onside with me and not the SNP opener was - would you rather be there or here. That kind of set the perceived tone of what the march organisers' message was - that the marches were now more bash the SNP events as opposed to independence itself.
People get fed up feeling their attendance is hi-jacked as being just more anti SNP and not all about independence any more. People don't like being used as tools for one clique or another.
Also, the timing of the last couple of marches clashed with really massive other annual Scottish events going on and it does look as if the dates chosen simply turned out not to be the best.
People are more skint than maybe some organisers are aware of and that probably has a fair bit to do with it as well. But you have to admit, there are influencers and knee-jerk to everything social media hounds who maybe at times are not the most encouraging voices at welcoming ALL these days. Some SNP members are scared to go to marches now as they don't want to get the level of judgement and bile thrown at them as some on social media do. I think Believe in Scotland are more attractive to some people because they tend not to give out that vibe to the extent some people feel people who associate themselves strongly with AUOB do.
Don't give up the marches. I just think third party messaging can be a problem. Most folk are happy enough, when they can afford it, to turn up for the march - to show the public they are still around and haven't gone away - but a lot tend to avoid staying around for the speakers. And people who have travelled a fair distance just naturally want to start the journey back home.
Also at the time of the Edinburgh Palestine demo - a lot of people had already started their school holiday cycle - and then with the start of the pre-Fringe and then the Fringe build up events - people were all over the place. The ordinary summer madness clash of activities time.
YouGov, Westminster voting intention, field work 4th August. Scottish sub-sample. Con 11%, Lab 15%, LibDem 13%, SNP 39%, RefUK 14%, Green 5%. A bit of a surge from Labour to SNP. Perhaps putting pensioners under house arrest for opposing genocide isn’t such a good look for Labour after all.
We should vote for Flynn or McAllan to lead us for another 30 years of devolved non-government under Farage so that years worth of BHA style incompetent legislation can really get to grips with the problems of unwanted dog poo and chemical toilets being emptied in laybys.
Go for it, you know you want to! It's why we support the SNP.
Isn't M McAllan the person who is favoured by the senior party hierarchy?
ReplyDeleteYou're bang on correct a out Flynn James, totally a devolutionist. Shame about Forbes, mid you it's a shame about the SNP, you know, the way they turned out.
ReplyDeleteIs there any key figure currently within the SNP who would make a good leader, push for independence and be an attractive option to all those who left?
ReplyDeleteAny sparkle of hope?
I think the senior hierarchy of the party believe McAllan is the one.
DeleteThe question specifically included "will push for independence".
DeleteMcAllan is not "the one" for that, although the leadership may still want her because they have different criteria from the rest of us.
“McAllan is the one” the SNP are like The Matrix.
DeleteAnon at 4.48 etc ... and you're the one who is obsessed with MM.
DeleteBlack leaving appeased the right wing of the SNP. Forbes standing down will please the toilet brigade. In my opinion, the only way the SNP and independence regain any impetus is if Flynn becomes deputy with a view to becoming leader within the next few years. I don't much care about the nature of his ambition, at least he has some fire in his belly, at least he gets us talked about.
ReplyDeleteIf the insipid McAllan is being lined up for the top job it really is all over.
I have no objections to fire in the belly, I just wish that fire was directed towards independence at the earliest possible date, rather than towards winning devolved elections for its own sake. However I agree that Flynn is preferable to McAllan. I certainly wouldn't dismiss her as "insipid", I think she's got loads to offer but not as leader, or not until later in her career anyway.
DeleteDo you now think that Alba ever really intended to be an autonomous political party pushing for independence - or just what they seem to be - a vehicle under the guise of a political party to continue the SNP must be destroyed goal?
DeleteAlthough, journos felt that a LONG time ago, especially when one of Salmond's professional cronies said he was so jealous of Sturgeon being FM that he was prepared to gobble up the SNP, the independence movement, burn the house down and all of Scotland so that nobody but nobody would ever be in a position to either lead the SNP or the independence movement if it wasn't himself. And this from a man who was one of Salmond's defence witnesses - who kind of let some cats out of the bag which induced Salmond to scream at his defence team.
More grist to the revenge of Salmond mill - probably with more to come. Great pity for Scotland and any hope of those who legitimately put aiming for independence above the Salmond revenge saga - which is absolutely nothing to do with the getting of independence.
Anon at 2.17. If you don’t name people you are likely making it up. Put up names or we may suspect you of being a sad wee billy liar.
DeleteSwinney remains. That's the biggest problem.
ReplyDeleteI had a feeing a while back that Kate might be approaching an important point in her child's development where she would have to make the choice between an all out political career for hersel or being there at all times for the wee one. I am extremely sorry that she won't be at Holyrood after next May. She will be sorely missed but her decision is perfectly understandable.
ReplyDeleteMÃ iri McAllan has as much personality and clue as Stephen Flynn has scruples and hair. They'd be a total disaster. Neil Gray would put Bisto to shame as he clambered on the limo special with nobody to keep him in check, perhaps the only possibility is Ivan McKee.
ReplyDeleteOr Swinney turns out to be a last chanty hero.
Ivan McKee is one of the better Scot Gov ministers. I don't see him as leadership/deputy potential but perhaps for the finance job in the future.
ReplyDeleteFlynn is a shoo-in for deputy. There isn't anybody else remotely suitable.
Vote for Tasmania when she rejoins!
DeleteIn like Flynn. Gone like Independence.
DeleteNot surprised James at the Salmond/Forbes plot. He needed someone in Holyrood to wipe the complaints record and if he couldn't get Cherry her needed Forbes. Alex was always good at spotting useful handmaidens.
ReplyDeleteisn't there a chance McKee might last minute walk as well? Isn't he more affiliated to the Cherry brigade? I'd like to think not but wouldn't know.
ReplyDeleteNo you dont. I think 318am you had to much refreshment
DeleteI prefer to be optimistic about things, too, James but I can't shake the feeling we're in a very dark place indeed on the road to independence. Darker still because we know what's coming down the pike from England. His name is Prime Minister Nigel Farage.
ReplyDeleteHope now relies on persons unknown reviving the SNP's focus on independence, sidelining the cosy devo careerists, demonstrating the Scottish people's majority will for independence, and doing what it takes to force London to engage with it. That's a tall order indeed, for anyone, let alone a stranger.
We can't even get a good turnout for an indy march now. (Or a Palestine demo, going by Edinburgh a few weeks ago.) What is going on? Where's the movement? And where oh where's the party?
Is Michael Matheson available?
ReplyDeleteI doubt Lesley Riddoch's comment about the 'class thing'' and the 'looked as if it was like the scruffy types that turned up' comment in her latest podcast - unless she was had a smart rethink and edited it out - will do march organisers any favours. She DID say that there was a 'class thing because the SNP didn't endorse the AUOB rallies' - but that's her personal interpretation of why numbers seem to be less on occasion. Her natural virrulent antipathy towards the SNP seems to induce her to imply that SNP members and the SNP think themselves too much of a cut above to attend rallies, but she's very wrong. There are a lot of reasons why people tend to prefer to turn up for the march only - when they can afford it these days, and many just can't afford the travel these days - and not stick around for the rallies. When you hear influencers suggesting the SNP should butt out of events (again was edited out of a previous podcast with hindsight or result of some comments) - then SNP members naturally take that literally. Then the mind changes and it's 'SNP must have told their members not to turn up'. Which again seems just a cover up for the previous 'we don't want any of you' spontaneous expressions. Wanted, absolutely not wanted - then where are they?
ReplyDeletePeople get fed up being labelled as one thing or another according to the emotional frustrations of influencers they respect or respected - and let's face it, when our late Alec chose to fuel the division the day Yousaf was attending some royal do as FM in London - and Alec's rousing get onside with me and not the SNP opener was - would you rather be there or here. That kind of set the perceived tone of what the march organisers' message was - that the marches were now more bash the SNP events as opposed to independence itself.
People get fed up feeling their attendance is hi-jacked as being just more anti SNP and not all about independence any more. People don't like being used as tools for one clique or another.
Also, the timing of the last couple of marches clashed with really massive other annual Scottish events going on and it does look as if the dates chosen simply turned out not to be the best.
People are more skint than maybe some organisers are aware of and that probably has a fair bit to do with it as well. But you have to admit, there are influencers and knee-jerk to everything social media hounds who maybe at times are not the most encouraging voices at welcoming ALL these days. Some SNP members are scared to go to marches now as they don't want to get the level of judgement and bile thrown at them as some on social media do. I think Believe in Scotland are more attractive to some people because they tend not to give out that vibe to the extent some people feel people who associate themselves strongly with AUOB do.
Don't give up the marches. I just think third party messaging can be a problem. Most folk are happy enough, when they can afford it, to turn up for the march - to show the public they are still around and haven't gone away - but a lot tend to avoid staying around for the speakers. And people who have travelled a fair distance just naturally want to start the journey back home.
Also at the time of the Edinburgh Palestine demo - a lot of people had already started their school holiday cycle - and then with the start of the pre-Fringe and then the Fringe build up events - people were all over the place. The ordinary summer madness clash of activities time.
YouGov, Westminster voting intention, field work 4th August.
ReplyDeleteScottish sub-sample.
Con 11%, Lab 15%, LibDem 13%, SNP 39%, RefUK 14%, Green 5%.
A bit of a surge from Labour to SNP.
Perhaps putting pensioners under house arrest for opposing genocide isn’t such a good look for Labour after all.
We should vote for Flynn or McAllan to lead us for another 30 years of devolved non-government under Farage so that years worth of BHA style incompetent legislation can really get to grips with the problems of unwanted dog poo and chemical toilets being emptied in laybys.
ReplyDeleteGo for it, you know you want to! It's why we support the SNP.
Her church doesn't allow female ministers ;-)
ReplyDelete