The usual suspects will of course groan at this point, but it is really important to take a few moments to mark the occasion whenever the Stew Fan Club allow yet another of the Great One's incorrect claims or predictions to disappear into the memory hole, so that he can wipe the slate clean once again and continue mournfully wailing "WHY DO I ALWAYS HAVE TO BE RIGHT?" without any apparent sense of irony. And this time, actually, it's even more important than usual to flag up that a Stew Fact has just been definitively proved to be wrong, because it destroys the whole basis for his instructions to his readership (nay, to the world!) that they must vote tactically on the Holyrood regional list ballot next year. It literally is only four weeks since he claimed that the SNP were guaranteed to win at least 65 of the 73 Holyrood constituency seats, meaning they would be certain to win an overall majority in the Scottish Parliament without requiring a single list vote or list seat. He added that this meant that it would be impossible for the SNP to win any list seats at all, so every single list vote for the SNP was now 100% certain to be wasted. Barking mad though that claim was, he wasn't finished - with his trademark bombast, he noisily bellowed that *I* knew all of this to be true too and that like some sort of crazed Bond villain I was engaged in a wicked conspiracy to hide the facts from the world.
I mean, this was quite the 'evolution' in his views from only five months earlier when he announced that there was ZERO chance of a pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament, let alone of a single-party SNP majority, barring "a nuclear war or an alien invasion". But, hey, that was just yet another of the Stew Facts that the fan club let slip down the memory hole without any undue fuss or comment. They're so good to him in that way. And without wanting to blow my own trumpet here, it has to be said that, like all good Bond villians, I've clearly been putting in a sterling effort to keep track of the ever-changing facts that I'm concealing as part of my evil masterplan. The facts change so rapidly these days.
But here we are - the things that the Stew disciples Know To Be True are back in a state of flux yet again, because Hamilton was not supposed to go to Labour last night. It was one of the 65 seats that were absolutely certain to be retained or gained by the SNP - Stew provided us with maps and everything. And it was by no means the easiest of the Stew 65 for Labour to win, so it can be reasonably inferred that if he was hopelessly wrong about Hamilton, he was hopelessly wrong about many other similar seats too. The reality is that there are a large number of constituency seats that the SNP may not win next year, which means they may well end up being compensated with a significant number of list seats, and therefore by definition SNP list votes are far from certain to be wasted. On a poor night, the SNP may even trail Labour on constituency seats and require vast numbers of list votes just to end with more overall seats than Labour, exactly as they did in 2007.
When pressed a few weeks ago about his nutty 65-seat guarantee, Stew did eventually concede that the polls might change over the next year, in which case his claims about the wisdom of tactical voting might change too. But that's no alibi for his blunder about Hamilton, because the claims he made about the polls were self-evidently not true at the moment he made them. If there had been a full-scale Holyrood election yesterday, or four weeks ago when he made the claims, we now know that the SNP would probably have lost Hamilton and several of the rest of the 65 constituency seats that they were supposed to be guaranteed to win. For Stew to have been as catastrophically wrong as that, there can only be two possible explanations: either a) what he grandiosely called his "constituency projections" were not actually supported by the polling data in the first place, or b) the assumptions he was making about polling accuracy were massively overblown. In reality, it was a bit of both, albeit much more the former than the latter.
So just within the last six months, we've had Stew tell us two completely contradictory things: 1) that we mustn't vote SNP on the list because the SNP are going to do incredibly badly in the election and it would be pointless to vote for them, and 2) that we mustn't vote SNP on the list because the SNP are going to do insanely well in the election and it would be a 'waste' to vote for them. Doubtless we're about to hear a third, and completely different, and probably thrillingly complex version of why we absolutely mustn't vote SNP on the list whatever we do.
And now that the whole basis for his previous demand for tactical voting has been totally eviscerated, we'll doubtless also hear a completely different version of why tactical voting is a must. But it's worth bearing in mind that if the first version turned out to be wrong, there's quite a high likelihood that the second version will also turn out to be wrong, and for exactly the same reason - ie. that all Stew ever does is blag and bluff in pursuit of his agenda (which at the moment is to destroy the SNP and replace them with a far-right, pro-Netanyahu and anti-independence Reform UK government).
* * *
"Oh no, they're being beastly about Nigel again. Stew, Stew, come here and defend Nigel!"
"Reform have imploded" pic.twitter.com/m5IPrfWo1M
— Wings Over Scotland (@WingsScotland) June 6, 2025
Stuart Campbell declared war on the SNP some long time ago.
ReplyDeleteHis stated objective is to destroy the party by any means necessary.
All is fair in love and war I suppose.
The SNP used to be an election winning machine but rather like a sports team who can't buy a win, they seem to have completely lost the art of winning.
ReplyDeleteMake no mistake, this is a really dangerous time for the Yes movement. If our only realistic political vehicle is going to stick it's fingers in its ears and explain away a really poor result (as they did last July) then there's every chance of a repeat at HR26.
There's a reason they didn't get their vote out on Thursday and it's the same reason as last July. Independence must be front and centre. You are not listening John!
The Yes Movement can rely on Liberate Scotland!
DeleteIf the conservatives do 6% nationwide, could they lose all seats in Parliament?
ReplyDeleteYou mean in Holyrood? Unlikely, they'd have to fall lower for that to happen.
DeleteI think that the message regarding independence will be well and truly delivered to the leadership from those of us who will be attending the meeting of the SNP National Council in Perth on the 21st if June. I, personally, will not be holding back if given the opportunity to get to the podium.
ReplyDeleteI hope you do that anon at 1.20pm.
DeleteHowever, I find it hard to understand why people still think the SNP is a party for Scottish independence. The party leader, Swinney, announces he will do nothing on independence until support is >70% in the polls ( that will never happen) and there is zero protest from the membership. Disnae seem like a leader or a membership who actually want independence. .
I heard that John Swinney was planning a pro-independence initiative in January 2026 in time to feed into the pre-election message.
DeleteIfs, I don’t recall Swinney mentioning the 70% figure. However, if correct I agree it’s a ridiculous number, as it’ll be almost impossible to get support to that level. I do think support for independence needs to be a bit higher than it is now though. I’d say having Yes consistently in the high 50s to low 60s in all polls would put considerable pressure on Westminster and arguably make their position untenable.
DeleteRather than criticising the SNP, I think we should all be doing our bit to help drive support for independence to that level.
In a Telegraph article on 11th May (I've just looked it up) John Swinney said he would try to get support for independence "above 60%" in order to force Westminster to agree to another referendum. IfS exaggerating and twisting things again.
Delete“ Arguably make their position untenable” - let’s hear that argument then.
DeleteAnon troll at 10.28pm unlike you I don't read the Telegraph. Is that normal reading for SNP members these days. You expect me to accept you are telling the truth but you say I am not. Typical troll attitude.
DeleteSwinney appeared on the Sunday morning tv show and said overwhelming support similar to what was there for devolution is what he wanted before he would CONSIDER doing anything about independence. As the vote for devolution was above seventy percent there is no exaggeration or twisting by me.
If what you say is true perhaps you should be asking why Swinney is not giving a clear and consistent answer to what should be the most important question he is ever asked.
You say force Westminster. Delusional nonsense.
8.11pm - IFS never said Swinney used the word 70% or he would have put it in quotes. By referring to the level of support for devolution Swinney was referring to a figure greater than 70%. In case you have forgotten the 1997 vote was 74.29%.
DeleteSo no exaggeration or lies by IFS.
So let’s hear why Westminster would agree to a section 30 request when all the English parties have said they will not no matter how Scotland votes.
Or will you vanish like a fine mist that has no substance.
10.28 no wonder I couldn’t find the SNP plan for independence it’s in the Telegraph newspaper. The English right wing rag. You would have thought it might be on the SNP website or even the National newspaper but no anon @ 10.28 pm tells us where to find it.
DeleteThe anons who once again punt the nonsense that Westminster will just cave and agree a sec 30 ref if this or that is achieved have vanished. They have no case to put. They should just stop insulting people's intelligence with this rubbish.
DeleteThe result of the Hamilton by-election shows that constituency needs the services of a psychologist rather than a psychologist.
ReplyDeleteSir Starmer: We're going to take away the benefits of the poorest and most vulnerable.
Hamilton: Here's our vote. More of the same, please.
But still Labour lost 19 points from the general election in that constituency.
DeleteI agree It should be more, but it's still a lot in just a year
Like it ir lump it, the SNP is the only political party capable of getting independence for Scotland.
ReplyDeleteThere is no credible alternative and probably never will be.
Alba is already dead to most voters and the tiny other pro-indy parties are irrelevant.
If you want even a sniff at a chance of self determination for our country, you simply must vote for the SNP.
100% correct, well said.
DeleteThe once great party of independence is now offering a " sniff ".
DeleteHow about a de facto referendum!!!!!!!!
Anon 1.04 Not true. After eleven years we now know that they can not deliver independence. Alba are dead, the others too. The Yes movement has a big problem but the SNP have shown time and time again they are not the answer
DeleteIFS there's no chance of a defacto referendum because they're afraid they might win it and be exposed as con merchants who have no idea of how to achieve their so called stated aim. Once exposed they'll be off the gravy train.
Delete"If you want even a sniff at a chance of self determination for our country, you simply must vote for the SNP."
DeleteI only smell another rotten carrot offering ...
WT at 11.14am. I agree. Our politicians sold us out to England in 1707 and the current lot have been doing the same since 2015. I said back in 2020 that a decent independence leader would call the 2021 Holyrood election a de facto referendum after Johnson once again told Sturgeon to pissof with her sec 30 request.
DeleteAll these SNP loyalists told me Sturgeon knew what she was doing and that I was wrong and I was a Unionist. The last 5 years have proved me right and the others, not only wrong, but gullible fools. Too many have still not learned a thing. They are true numpties.They cannae change even when the facts are staring them in the face.
I see the Alba and Waste of Space nonmarks on here are still mumping their gums at the SNP.
ReplyDeleteBrightens up a dull Sunday to watch their total impotence and unimportance.
5.21pm - so says a gullible fool that is clearly happy to keep chewing on rotten carrots. Hee haw you donkey.
DeleteAnon at 5.21. Are you happy with performance of SNP over past three to four years?
DeleteAnon at 1.05pm
DeleteNot particularly happy, but with relatives and friends in both Wales and England, I am far happier with SNP Govt performance than they have been and are with Tory (until recently in England) and now Labour rule in both England and Wales.
Sometimes, listening to the perspectives of folk outside Scotland who have no alternative to unionist rule and its effects, is quite enlightening.
Most of those I have mentioned think we Scots are looked after far better by our govt, than they are by theirs.
SNP need to up their game in many areas, that is for sure, but the alternative realistic choices to govern Scotland are much worse than what we already have.
Ach, there's always Alba.
DeleteAnon @ 2.54pm the SNP was not established all these years ago to run a devolved administration for Westminster. It was not created to mitigate Westminster policies to make them a bit more palatable in Scotland. It was not created to allow Westminster to help itself to Scotland’s resources.
DeleteThe party was created to deliver Scottish independence. Something you and others seem to forget.
Anon at 12.35 pm
DeleteWrong.
I forgot nothing.
I know the reason why SNP was formed but I also know of the truly massive legal, UK State and MSM obstacles presently lined up against that very reason and I also know that there is no 'easy/fast' way around them.
I also realise that trashing and trying to destroy the only political party which has any chance of getting us to independence, or suggesting that having a unionist Scottish govt again might be a good thing to reinvigorate Indy voters, is a piece of utter nonsense bordering on sheer lunacy.
12.22pm dipshit - nobody suggested having a unionist Scotgov except for you. You are a surrender monkey to the British state.
DeleteMoron at 9.24pm
DeleteCampbell and his bunch of halfwits seem to be suggesting exactly that.