* Would Labour underperform Jeremy Corbyn's worst ever projected vote share of 27% from 2017?
* Would Reform match the recent opinion poll average by finishing ahead of Labour, in spite of the handicap of having no real tradition in local government?
* Was there any way Labour could suffer the traditional fate of an unpopular government by ending up with a substantial deficit in the projected vote, bearing in mind that opinion polls suggested the split in the right-wing vote might get them off the hook to some extent?
* Would there be any sign of Reform shaking off the Tories to become unambiguously the leading right-wing challenger to Labour?
All of the above points have been checked off in a way that I don't think anyone really anticipated.
BBC projected national vote shares:
Reform UK 30%
Labour 20%
Liberal Democrats 17%
Conservatives 15%
Greens 11%
20% is worse than Labour's post-election low in any opinion poll, and 30% is higher than Reform's all-time opinion poll high, so even bearing in mind that voting trends can be different in local elections, this has to open up the serious possibility that the opinion polls have been somehow getting it wrong by overstating Labour and understating Reform. It's also hard to see how Reform could end up with double the Tory vote unless opinion polls had been underestimating the gap between those two parties.
The psychological impact of this will be immense, and in combination with the Runcorn by-election result may produce a snowball effect that could push Reform into a substantial poll lead over the coming months. And as something approaching the worst-case scenario for Starmer, it could also bring the possibility of a change of Labour leader into play.
*. *. *
You can read my analysis of the local elections for The National HERE.
Despite all of the above it's imperative to remember that Labour have an enormous 150+ Westminster majority and 4+ years remaining in power. An awful lot can happen in that time. If anything happens to Farage for example, Reform will likely melt away. We should be entirely focussed on HR26.
ReplyDeleteNigel will still be around in four years time, he's the BBC's blue eyed boy after all.
DeleteThe Sennedd in 2026 is the next battleground for Labour and Reform.
DeleteThe likelihood is that London Labour will breenge past WelshbLabour and make a hash of it.
Put it this way. If Labour was a rentboy, Reform would be Angelina Jolie.
DeleteLabour are no less rightwing than the Conservatives. It's why Reform splitting the right doesn't help them: it's splitting all their own voters too except the leftwing ones who aren't paying attention.
ReplyDeleteGreat performance from Reform, difficult to sweep it under the carpet. If they start nudging 35 percent in the national polls then Swinney has got a lot to worry about.
ReplyDeleteReform have not started any campaign yet for 2026 in Scotland.
Hi, Reform troll. Bye, Reform troll.
DeleteEngerland once again proving just how dumb it can be.
ReplyDeleteI'd like Nigel Farage to open up an ice cream shop in Lochgilhead. The new residents will love him. He's one of their one and they're the majority outside of the old council schemes. He'll do well in Argyll. Unfortunately.
ReplyDeleteThe horror! The horror!
ReplyDelete"Hey Little Englanders......here's the man who cheerleaded for your disastrous brexit and said Liz Truss's mini budget was a stroke of genius.
ReplyDeleteHis name is Nigel Farage."
Little Englanders.........."I'll still vote for him".
Says it all really.
It’s Nicola sturgeons fault, it is Corbyn’s fault, it’s the Europeans fault, it’s immigrants fault. How are billionaires supposed to cope living in Monaco?
ReplyDelete“… it could also bring the possibility of a change of Labour leader into play.”
ReplyDeleteWho would want to replace him?
Morgan McSweeney is apparently scathing about his notional Boss in private. Robin McAlpine believes Starmer is McSweeney’s marionette, and I concur.
But, Starmer was MI5’s man then McSweeney removed Starmer’s handler / Chief of Staff (Senior MI5 Officer, Sue Gray) in a coup. So McSweeney’s backers (Vauxhall Cross?) defeated Thame House.
Robin McAlpine’s latest, overly long Blog post is titled “Morgan McSweeney is shite”. It could have been neatly summed up by the line “Morgan McSweeney gives incompetence a bad name.”.
The Permanent State is not invested in Starmer just as they used Boris Johnson and jettisoned him when his usefulness was spent (the passing of the Covert Human Intelligence Sources (Criminal Conduct) Act 2021).
Some other hapless stooge will replace Starmer at the next General Election, and not before. The colour of the rosette the puppet wears will be a matter of supreme indifference.
You sound like a slapper from Northern England who thinks she's being cutting and smart. "I only eat Burger King when I'm in Alicante." It makes my effing blood boil. "They should make a film about my life." Really? And who are 'they'? This sickens me. You must have spent a fortune on QBC and a load of tat from Pandora. Well, I'm just going to laugh all the way to the vomitorium and spew my guts up. The world will thank me.
ReplyDeleteHas there been a more politically unstable country in Western Europe since 2014, than England?. To think they warned us of uncertainty if we voted for Independence. In reality we ended up living in a Monty Python sketch
ReplyDeleteBelgium, for a start.
DeleteI wonder if Reform will do better than the 25% they got recently in Glasgow Southside? I doubt their vote share will drop now that John Swinney has become their main Scottish publicity machine.
ReplyDeleteThere's a lot of radges in Glesgy southside
DeleteBe interesting to watch.
DeleteI think it is more likely that Reform's support in Scotland is pretty much at its peak just now and will probably diminish as the reality of what has happened in England sinks in.
Farage is still one of the most hated politicians in Scotland by all polling and that certainly will not change much in the hear future.