Labour's uncertainty transformed into despair using empirical strategies: Reform UK take the lead for the first time ever in any "Freshwater poll" (nope, me neither)

I'm slightly baffled by this poll, because it's billed as the latest in a monthly series of polls by a firm called "Freshwater Strategies" on behalf of City AM, but I can't find much trace of the previous polls in the series.  Freshwater are not listed as a member of the British Polling Council (although amazingly there are members called "Walnut Unlimited" and "Yonder Consulting").  They appear to be an Australian firm, albeit with a secondary office in London, and their Twitter self-description is soul-destroying corporate gibberish: "we transform uncertainty into opportunity using empirical strategies".  Of course you do, guys.

GB-wide voting intentions (Freshwater Strategies / City AM, 28th February - 2nd March 2025):

Reform UK 27%

Labour 24%

Conservatives 23%

Liberal Democrats 15%

Greens 7%

SNP 3%

Whoever did the write-up for City AM was fairly clueless, because they described the SNP as being on "just" 3%, whereas in fact that's a healthy showing for the SNP in a GB-wide poll.  It's clearly stated that Reform UK have "surged" and are in the lead for the first time in the monthly series, which is surprising, because other firms are suggesting Reform may have dropped back just a touch recently.

*  *  *

I launched the Scot Goes Pop fundraiser for 2025 in January, and so far the running total stands at £1661, meaning that 24% of the target of £6800 has been raised.  If you'd like to help Scot Goes Pop continue with poll analysis and truly independent political commentary for another year, donations are welcome HERE.  Direct Paypal donations can also be made - my Paypal email address is:   jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk