Let me say at this point that I've commissioned a Find Out Now poll myself in the past - just once, and it was almost two years ago now, but assuming that they still have the same basic approach that they did back then, what is likely to have happened is that the Herald will have been handed the data tables and left to work out the meaning of the numbers for themselves, unless they specifically asked for guidance. So for starters, it looks like the Herald have used the non-turnout-adjusted numbers on independence (Yes 51%, No 49%), whereas to maintain consistency with previous polls they should really have used the turnout-adjusted figures, which are...
Should Scotland be an independent country? (Find Out Now/Herald, 15th-20th January 2025)
Yes 52% (-)
No 48% (-)
The same issue has led to a discrepancy between the Westminster numbers on the Herald and Find Out Now websites. The Herald say that second-placed Labour are only one point ahead of Reform UK in third place, whereas Find Out Now themselves say the gap is three points. That strongly implies Find Out Now regard the turnout-adjusted numbers as the headline results, which means Alba are NOT on 7% of the Holyrood list vote. They are on about 5.4%, which is borderline between being rounded down to 5% or rounded up to 6%, but in all probability the correct number is 5%.
The slight mystery here, though, is that Professor John Curtice apparently did the seats projection and I'd have thought he'd have checked the data tables first before approving the numbers. However, the more I've looked at the tables, the more convinced I've become that a major error has been made.
I've done a manual calculation, and the following appear to be the correct numbers, although in one or two cases they may be 1% out due to rounding issues -
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP 34% (-1)
Labour 20% (+1)
Conservatives 13% (-2)
Reform UK 13% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 9% (-)
Greens 9% (+2)
Alba 2% (-)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 27% (+1)
Labour 16% (-1)
Conservatives 15% (+1)
Greens 13% (-)
Liberal Democrats 12% (+2)
Reform UK 11% (-)
Alba 5% (-1)
Those numbers make far, far more intuitive sense than the ones that were published on Saturday night - there's no mysterious slump in the SNP vote, and Alba's support is at a slightly more realistic level (albeit still probably significantly exaggerated).
As far as a seats projection is concerned, I'm not aware of John Curtice's model being publicly available online anywhere, so it's impossible to be sure of what the real numbers would be if the vote shares had been entered correctly. But on the most popular tool available online, the seats projection works out as: SNP 54, Labour 18, Conservatives 17, Greens 16, Liberal Democrats 14, Reform UK 9, Alba 1. Again, that looks like a far more realistic estimate of where we actually are than the rather wild-looking projection that was published on Saturday night (which had Alba on *eight* seats!).
It's still a very substantial pro-independence majority - pro-indy parties are on 71 seats in combination, with unionist parties on just 58 seats.
* * *
I launched the Scot Goes Pop fundraiser for 2025 last weekend, and so far the running total stands at £1201, meaning that 18% of the target of £6800 has been raised. If you'd like to help Scot Goes Pop continue with poll analysis and truly independent political commentary for another year, donations are welcome HERE. Direct Paypal donations can also be made - my Paypal email address is: jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
Looks to me like a nice, potentially stable, Pro-Indy-Majority Parliament and Scottish Govt.
ReplyDeleteNice.
Now...........who will be upset most on here, Albaists or Yoons???
Place yer bets...................
David Francis celebrates a possible fall in independence representation.
DeleteAnd here's the first wee whining Anon.
DeleteAlba or Yoon, folks?
Take yer pick.........
Francis, Francis, Francis it's always fucking Francis. You're a thick plank of wud Francis.
DeleteLol.
DeleteAnon, Anon, Anon - it's always f#cking Anons.
Planks-R-Us.
Ain't life wonderful 😁😁😁
Important question you tend to ignore: Then what happens?
DeleteHow is independence achieved after securing that pro-indy Government at Holyrood that will be different from what's happened with the current majority pro-indy representation we have at the present moment and have had since 2021?
And before you deflect with: What's your alternative strategy... I asked first.
Anon at 8:19
DeleteMillion Dollar Question.
I Don't know for certain.
Neither do you, Alba, Wings, ISP, Robin McAlpine, Greens or probably SNP.
Anyone who says they do know, is a Bona-Fide Liar.
A Quasi Good Friday Border Poll arrangement, perhaps.
A demonstrable and consistent majority-demand from Scots, perhaps.
A structured programme of Scotgovt 'dispute and argument' with WM, perhaps.
A new Yes Mass Movement shoving things along, perhaps.
Some High Profile Civil Disobedience, perhaps.
I simply do not know.
What I DO know, is that without a dominant Scottish Indy Party and a Po-Indy Scotgovt in place, there will be NO chance of achieving our main objective.
None.
And there is absolutely NO 'Fast/Clever' way to get there and anyone who says there is, is a total moron.
Now.......what's your alternative strategy?
Beg, beg, beg again. Then beg, beg, beg some more. Then, oh you better watch out now because it's getting serious: we shift up gears to BEGGING!
DeleteThat'll get it right up 'em, Captain Mainwaring!
Anon at 9.01 pm ... yes, but what is YOUR proposal, Corporal Jones?!
DeleteSwinney’s ex boss says she couldn’t do any more to get independence. Yousaf , ex FM, says Sturgeon is the smartest person he knows and she couldn’t get indyref2.
DeleteYet we are expected to believe Swinney will do what both of his predecessors seem to think was not possible. If Swinney is that good why was he deputy FM for so long and when he was deputy why did he not tell Sturgeon how to get independence. In fact Swinney said he was the man who warned Sturgeon not to have indyref2 because of Brexit even though it was in the SNP manifesto. If you want to hear him say that look up the BBC hit job on Salmond programme called A Troubled Union Salmond and Sturgeon. I’m sure it’s on YouTube.
Isn't it a little concerning that after all this time we're still on a "don't know" strategy? Shouldn't the SNP have come up with something a little more tangible by now?
DeleteIt's not like it's a new concept and we're just starting out on step 1 to form a plan. We've had mandates, triple-locks of mandates, no ifs not buts a referendum will happen, the democratic will will be unsustainable etc but nothing has progressed. We're stuck in a limbo and there's been no political will to try anything new.
Some are acting as if the SNP were only just elected for the first time a few years ago & we should give them a chance... but they've been promising acton for over a decade. It's understandable that for some the trust is gone and they need more than a "I don't know what will happen".
Anon 11.10pm - see my post below re Angus Robertson @12.53am. Angus says we will probably need to wait 10 years. These people are either the most clueless independence leaders ever on planet earth or they are taking the piss.
DeletePlan please.
DeleteIn another 10 years, with the SNP in this state, we'll still be stuck exactly where we are. And if Davey Francis is around by then, without any self-consciousness or irony, he'll still demand to know YOUR PLAN.
DeleteI've done the same for the Westminster figures. Again as stated above the numbers may be a little off due to rounding and overall doesn't add up to 100% due to rounding. Rpugh changes with last poll.
ReplyDeleteSNP 33% -1
Lab 19% -1
Reform 17% +2
Con 13% -1
Lib Dem 10% +1
Green 6% --
Other 1% -1
Nobody pulls the wool over my eyes signor
DeleteThat's a bit more like it for the SNP. The other figures would indicate a reversal of their recovery.
ReplyDeletePeople often ask me why they should join Alba when we have negligible public support, when we never get anyone elected and when we have such unappealing personalities at the top of the party. But I say look more closely and consider what we do have:
ReplyDelete1) Rod-of-iron discipline and obedience. Per capita, Alba has more annual expulsions than any political party in Europe apart from Viktor Orban's Fidesz.
2) Censorship. No organisation keeps their members' traps shut in quite the same way that we do in Alba.
3) Surveillance. We monitor every aspect of our members' social media activities in a way that would make the Stasi blush.
4) Slainte Media and Zulfikar Sheikh. Need I say more?
Join us today on this exciting adventure!
Feasgar math and all the rest of it. Sign me up!
DeleteI've got a few questions, tho.
1. I might not be able to join in the base quota of social media pile-ons on a regular basis. Awkwardly, I’m not currently unemployed. Can I seek special dispensation if I use the c*** word in block capitals enough?
2. Unfortunately, I made the great mistake of learning how the Holyrood election system works. It's going to be extra difficult for me to consistently doublethink my way into total public certainty that we'll get MSPs elected.
3. One time in the past I may have inadvertently called a senior party employee a gobshite in jest in a bar after an indy rally. Is there a statute of limitations for prior misdeeds?
Freedom for Scotland! Saor Alba gu brath!
SNP or out-and-out Yoon?
DeleteTake yer pick, folks...
Choose unity. Choose strength. And for the love of god choose baldy!
DeleteThe SNP are a GREAT political party, and the ONLY party that can and WILL lead us to independence.
ReplyDeleteJohn Swinney is turning into a GREAT leader. He gets better and better by the week. Every Thursday he runs rings round Sarwar and that Tory tosser, Cannae even think of the prick’s name, at FMQs.
Obviously Swinney learned so much from Nicola Sturgeon, who was a truly GREAT leader. She was AMAZING during COVID. There wasn’t a world leader who came close to Nicola during this time. She was admired the world over, we were so so lucky to have her at that awful time. We will be FOREVER in her debt. Nicola is an amazing person and was obviously a tremendous influence on John.
I have no doubts that John Swinney will lead us to independence, and anybody that says different is a complete W….R.
Ffs get behind John Swinney and the only party that can lead us to independence you imbeciles.
Listen. Zis ees not ze time for squabbling like ze hens in ze yard, or ze sheep and ze Albaiste. Non! It ees ze time to rally behind our leaders, to shout “Vive l’Écosse libre!” from ze rooftops, and to show zat we are not afraid of ze big bad Westminster wolf! Ze SNP is our hot-air balloon, and we must fill eet with ze winds of unity to "Soar Alba" above ze obstacles zat lie in our path! Such as ze poor as piss unity in our movemente!
DeleteSo, I beg of you – no, I plead wiz you – put aside your petty grievances and join hands, whether you are ze Swinnet, ze Sturjeoiniste or even ze Alababa. Together, we can escape zis oppressive regime and claim our rightful place as a proud and independent nation! But only if we end our squabbles and together we all "wheest!"
Now go forth and spread zis massage like butter on a baguette. Do not make me repeat myself, or I shall be forced to unleash my magnificent wrath, like ze enraged toilet inspector! Believe me, ze price is not worth ze entrée.
Lol.
ReplyDeleteTry harder Dummy.
Very poor impersonation.
Not a nice way to speak to people. REPEATEDLY
DeleteBetter to be a Dummy than a Franny.
DeleteLooking at those tables, 30.4% SNP roughly excluding don't knows adding to the YES cell at X6 to make 95.4% up to 96.5%, giving SNP 29.4% YES and adding 1/9th = 32.7% YES. Green roughly 9%, Alba 2% gives YES 43.7%. So there's roughly 8.5% YES from other parties.
ReplyDeleteLabour are over 25% YES, giving 4.5%, LibDems give maybe 2%, Cons maybe 0.2% (far lower than normal), and UK Reform maybe a bit less than 1/4 giving 1.8%. As if by magic that works out about right.
So that's part of the battleground for YES and the SNP; the other part is the missing 500,000 2024 voters.
"The missing 500,000 2024 voters"
DeleteRaises hand. Hiya! I'll vote for them if Swinney gets serious and makes the election into indyref2.
When the people of Scotland back independence and support them maybe then our politicians will support us
DeleteMy wife was going to vote Labour but voted SNP instead as our MP campaigned for WASPI. I "lent her my vote", same as she does to me for Indy, otherwise it would have been 500,001 as I'd have not bothered. If the SNP want my vote, they better earn it by going all out for Independence. Patricia Gibson lost anyway.
DeleteAgree
DeleteJohn Swinney's leadership -- marked by a steady hand -- is starting to pay off.
ReplyDeleteSURENESS-OF-TOUCH
DeleteThe sheer confidence he shows when settling into his morning roll. It's just breathtaking.
DeleteAir punched. Delight with.
DeleteNigel Farage's Reform UK has edged in front on 25%, with Labour pushed into second on 24% and the Tories on 21%.
ReplyDeleteThe YouGov poll, taken on Sunday and Monday, also puts the Lib Dems on 14% and Greens on 9%.
Nae shortage of radges in England.
ReplyDeleteIt's nothing new. They voted Tory most my lifetime, and even for Boris "FFS" Johnson in their millions. Radge? Permanently.
DeleteAnyways, the important bit from Swinney's interview on the Sunday Show was this:
ReplyDeleteSwinney: "Well what we need to do, the priority for me is to demonstrate, beyond any doubt that Scotland wants to become an Independent country, and that's how Scotland will become an Independent country because that's what happened with Devolution. Although we had a referendum in 1997 about Devolution it was plain to anyone's view that Scotland had decided we wanted a Parliament, we wanted a Parliament that was powerful within the United Kingdom and that was absolutely demonstrable and nobody could stand in the face of that and I need to get the Independence arguments into exactly the same shape and that's exactly what I'm doing."
Mmmmm. Well, the result of the Dev Ref in 1997 was 74.3% YES - a long way to go from 52% support.
It is hard to disagree with the basic message in John Swinney's comments. He has articulated a clear strategy that I think a lot of people in Scotland can get behind.
DeleteIt's very easy to disagree with it. It makes independence unattainable.
DeleteThe reason we got a referendum in 1997 was because Labour won the UK general election, and it was in their manifesto.
DeleteThe reason we got a referendum in 2014 was because the SNP won a shocking overall majority in Holyrood, it was in their manifesto, and London was sure we'd lose.
Both of them were the result of elections and tactical choices by the two governments.
Posted early stupid clever keys. THIS has abotu the Dev Ref:
Deletehttps://www.parliament.scot/about/history-of-the-scottish-parliament/the-path-to-devolution
and this from wikipedia:
"The Scottish Constitutional Convention was then established in 1989 after prominent Scottish individuals signed the Claim of Right, and superseded the role of the CSA.
The first meeting was held in the Assembly Hall in Edinburgh on 30 March 1989.[7] Canon Kenyon Wright, the convener of the executive committee, opened the meeting.[8] David Steel and Harry Ewing were adopted as co-chairmen.[9] A second meeting on 7 July was held in Inverness.[10] Various organisations participated in the Convention, such as the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, the Scottish Green Party, the Communist Party, the Scottish Trades Union Congress, the Scottish Council for Development and Industry, the Small Business Federation and various bodies representing other strands of political opinion as well as civic society in general.[11] Representatives of the two largest churches – the Church of Scotland and the Roman Catholic Church – were involved, as well as smaller church groups, and some non-Christian communities which decided to participate."
Getting Labour and the LibDems along to SCC 2025 might be a bit of a problem ... and the rest. Making Indy like Dev is a tall order, huge, enormous, gigantic. A veritable Tower of Babel. As can be seen even btl in forums.
It's nice to think that a "clear and settled will of the people" will make something happen—whatever it may be—and that notion is what Swinney talks about in your quote. But it's hogwash. How do you make it actually happen? Westminster says No, so how do we say YES?
DeleteYes it's a clear strategy. A gradualist one. But maybe the only one for the ScotGov as opposed to a political party, or us the people.
DeleteThe trick would be for him to make it happen quickly; taking advantage of Labour's continuing slump maybe, and the protest vote element of Reform UK. LibDems could be a problem. Perhaps inclusive Government could do the trick.
Replying to your 9:28 post: now you're talking. If one of the major UK parties, presumably Labour, supports Scottish independence on a UK election winning manifesto, like they did Devolution, then that's our "gold standard" referendum right there.
Delete"Huge, enormous, gigantic" aye, it is indeed. What force on Earth could take them on that journey? Not only would they be kissing goodbye forever to a bastion of the left, they'd go down like cold sick in England for "losing Scotland and severing Britain."
"Westminster says No, so how do we say YES?"
DeleteIndeed. Perhaps the self-determination route - Salvo, UN Committee on Decolonization, that sort of thing. Hence his mention of Northern Ireland and their Border Poll option which we don't have.
I think "the trick" you mention at 9:31 is the only game in town, and it's simpler than you think. Swinney needs to use the horrifying prospect of a Trumpist UK Farage government at the next general election to shift its strategy from "gradualism" to "plebiscite election." Use Holyrood 2026 as an indyref2, simple and the only way to prove they mean it. Get a dedicated Scotgov FOR INDEPENDENCE elected while Starmer's still there to force to the table. If the pressure of a big win in Holyrood on a straightforward mandate for independence isn't enough, then try again at the WM general itself, when Farage is nailed on favourite to take over No. 10.
DeleteThe only way we have to demonstrate the will of the Scottish people is elections. Use them. Swinney's the only one who can and must make that call. Go straight for independence.
Anon at 9:33 PM
DeleteIt might be enough to get Labour to support having a Referendum, and being neutral - much as Kezia Dugdale tried to make work but got sacked by the grey men.
If we actually do this thing—that needs the First Minister to fire the bloody starting gun, not just threaten to—then the election numbers speak for themselves and we will be able to actively explore alliances abroad like the UN route. With a bone fide majority of the people rallied to your side, doors open. A next stage has begun.
DeleteBut if all we can do is beg, then we better like feeling humiliated because there's lots, lots more where that came from.
Pick a number, just like a Yoon journalist
DeleteAnon at 9:41 PM
DeleteI was disgusted when I listened to that Dev target from Swinney, but after thinking about it, as you say about Trump, Farage, and Starmer and Reeves, the time is right for a tipping point. And there are signs of it happening in civic Scotland, and maybe even the likes of the STUC - a participant in the Devo run up.
And it could happen in less than a year- with the right catalysts.
That "Devo figure", the outrageous notion that one third of Scots could overrule all the rest!, needs put to bed immediately. The longer he leaves that out there, the harsher I think of him. If "once in a generation" was bad then how about "never ever"?
DeleteAs for catalysts, we shall soon see. We had plenty of them with the upheaval of Brexit and Covid too, so we know what it looks like now when they are squandered. Rest assured that the one thing we can't do is nothing, resting assured that indy will fall into the FM's lap! Nope. Definitely not. It needs that final bit of bold, determined action.
If Sarwar and Labour in Scotland ever said they supported a referendum why would you believe them when they lie about everything else?
ReplyDeleteSo the exchange rate is about 3 Indyvotes for 1 Unionistvote. Why is that?
ReplyDelete2 I think. With YES at 52% it just needs 2 for each Unionist vote persuaded.
Delete#HugAUnionist
Supermajorities are anti-democratic pish. All votes are equal, or it's rigged.
DeleteLatest Yougov / sky news poll is showing Reform leading. It could be optomistic to think Reform are not going to peel some votes off the SNP.
ReplyDeleteSwinney has the brains to fix this but time is not on his side. If Reform do end up forming the next gov then they will just change the Scotland act and indy will be over for a very long time!
If Trump turns the US economy into a tiger, gets rid of the woke and reduces gov waste many will say..I'll have some of that and support Reform in Scotland.
One easy example of waste are all the grifters in Holyrood. why not shut it down and go for the regional or Mayoral type model.
Trump has already U-Turned on his immediate tariffs on Canada and Mexico and Musk, like the completely unelected bureaucrat he is, is presently causing havoc among US Govt agencies and the US Treasury and his popularity among Americans is also sinking fast.
DeleteThey don't like the World's richest man 'throwing his weight around'.
This whole thing has disaster written all over it.
If you think there is severe 'buyers remorse' in the UK after electing Starmer's Labour Party, you ain't seen nothing yet............
Anon 1001- your reform already. Ex disgruntled Tory leader like Davidson no doubt.
Delete10:01. Donald doesn't need to achieve anything, he just needs the media (conventional and alternative) to give the impression that he's changing things. For better or worse? A secondary concern…
DeleteSo aye, with the environment as it is, Farage has to be favourite for next UK PM. Swinney should be building the case, and the campaigning infrastructure, for a rapid push for independence now while there's still time to get ready.
"I'll support Reform then I'll make an appointment with my shrink".
ReplyDeleteFair enough but the queue for the shrink could be very long. The patients could recover but not indy.
DeleteNo doubt James will be along to analyse the importance of this poll or not.
If Trump turns the US economy into a tiger.
ReplyDeleteLike he stopped the war in Ukraine within 24 hours?
At least he got the Mexicans to pay for the Wall and had Hilary Clinton jailed.
DeleteJust seen the sub sample results on WOS. Patrick is going to be over the moon! for a change.
ReplyDeleteAngus Robertson on Scotcast tonight when asked if it would be 15 or 10 years before a referendum basically says not 15 but seems comfortable with 10 years. The process he says is a bit of a stumbling block but he seems to think it will happen in that sort of timeframe. No mention of overwhelming support or any similar words. So it appears that as far as Robertson is concerned it’s the same old Westminster will cave in to Scottish democracy if we keep voting SNP. That 10 years will easily see Robertson to his retirement. I wonder if the bookies are taking bets on how many times Swinney will respectfully ask Westminster for a sec 30. Robertson either didn’t get the memo about trying to get a process as per N. Ireland as Swinney floated with the same BBC interviewer a few weeks ago or he just forgot as it really is not that important to him.
ReplyDeleteYou could laugh if it wasn’t so important.
Imagine the thought we'd be stuck here now, less hopeful than ever, back in 2015! You'd have laughed it off for being fanciful! And that's without Brexit or Covid!
DeleteNot true.
DeleteThat is a blatant LIE.
ReplyDeleteHaving listened to Scotcast, Geissler tried at least twice to get Robertson to accept 10 years as a timeframe, the first time allying it to 15 years.
At NO time did Robertson agree and simply said he would expect another Referendum 'sooner than that'.
Even when the BBC presenter tried to tie the 10 years span into the future shape of the EU, Robertson still refused to accept that timeframe, saying the EU would survive 'the years' intact.
He also talked about 'process' being a problem and we know that is true.
He mentioned the back-to-back election wins and mandates being denied by WM as well as emphasising another Ref would happen.
Given the determination of Geissler to try and get him to accept the 10 - 15 year timeframe, Robertson held his ground and did no such thing.
Peddle your made-up drivel elsewhere, pal.
I read this and put Scotcast on iPlayer and skipped through to that bit by 10 secs a time. When Glenn Campbell had just gone, Geissler asked Robertson about 10 to 15 years and Robertson said sooner than that I hope. Geissler said what about the EU, accepting the premise of 10 years, what about the EU - and Robertson answered the EU part, just ignoring the 10 year bit.
DeleteSo no, Robertson did not "seems comfortable with 10 years", he was already getting ready to answer the EU bit and ignored the 10 years bit (he'd already answered it).
As I've said many many times, it's the Indy movement most needs a fact-checking service to prevent the misrepresentation and distortion that is increasing not decreasing.
What did Angus R say about Freeports and the EU?
DeleteDelusional wishful thinking by David Francis and yesindyref2. If it is as they say why have they not posted the exact words involved in the interview. That is a yesindyref2 speciality. Did Robertson specifically say a referendum would take place in under 10 years - go on post his words saying that. You can’t because he didn’t. Did Robertson even mention overwhelming support anywhere - go on post his words saying that. You can’t because he didn’t.
DeleteDid Robertson mention the N. Ireland process no he didn’t. If thats a lie post his words mentioning it. You can’t because he didn’t.
Did Robertson mention the blockage/ process by the UK. Yes he did. Did Robertson mention any alternative to asking for a sec 30 again and again. Go on post his words where he said the alternative. You can’t because he didn’t.
I reckoned the in-house SNP propagandist David Francis would jump right in making a fool of himself. I also reckoned that the delusional, I believe in Swinney, yesindyref2 would do the same.
Well David Francis and yesindyref2 tell us what the SNP plan for independence is. Give us another save the date and tell us when it will happen and how it will happen. You can’t because there is no plan. More than 10 years after indyref1 the SNP has no plan just random vagueness spouted by whoever is being interviewed.
The truth is there is no plan and Swinney and Robertson can’t even be bothered to establish and keep to the same vague script.
Even if you believe the David Francis interpretation it still could be 9.5 years - for the not very bright - 9. 5 years is sooner than 10 years. Not to mention the fact that the SNP have no track record over the last 10 years of delivering on any of their promises on independence. A final reminder that the SNP stated a referendum would happen not long after the EU referendum vote in 2016. The SNP don’t exactly rush in to things despite all their promises. You could almost think the SNP plan for independence is kicking the can down the road year after year.
I do have to laugh at yesindyref2 saying we need a fact checking unit. I have lost count of the number of times the SNP have announced a rebuttal ( or some other name ) unit is being established and nothing happens.
DeleteIn that vein I remember my SNP telling me, after I floated the idea of a dedicated Minister for independence, that would definitely not happen as everybody in the SNP is for independence and that Nicola and her are on the case. What happened, after years of inaction on independence, a Minister for Independence is appointed to the Cabinet, does nothing and then is quietly removed. These people are charlatans. Pity people like Yesindyref2 and David Francis are blind to this.
You can't get tizzier than an IFS hissy fitter
DeleteYou can’t get a greater waste of space than you 6.19pm.
DeleteThe only thing we all seem to agree on is that the genuine David Francis is a disingenuous lying wee scrote, and a bit of a thicko. He has, to that extent, brought about unity. He is as bad as the lying unionists on the BBC and over in WOS land. What a saddo. He appears to devote huge amounts of time to posting on here and elsewhere. No wonder he is so angry and aggressive. If only he had gainful employment. I am coming round to the suggestion made by others that he is actually a deep agent for the union, tasked with portraying Indy supporters as nasty foul mouthed idiots.
ReplyDeleteIf false flag astroturfing was his game, he'd have a few more aliases you'd think. It's all too obvious the saddo's never off the comments section. You don't get the impression there's a furious, bigoted crowd of "vile cybernat" frothers when it's just one guy.
DeleteProsecute them now!!
DeleteWhere has the hysterical old unionist queen known as Independence for Scotland gone? What her new name, Gloria?
DeleteLol.
DeleteYet anothed Albaist/Yoon Anon Clown.
They really do breed like Rats.
Does anyone else think that if David Francis didn't keep sharpening his teeth by posting they would keep growing and eventually penetrate his brain?
DeleteHe's effectively a gnawbag.
SNP want to kill and eat all our cats!!
ReplyDeleteThe SNP are Puerto Ricans!
DeleteThere's more than one way to skin a cat. Or to Fleece(book) voters.
DeleteTime to stop pussyfooting around. What do we want? Prosecution. When do we want it? Now!!
DeleteThere's far too many dam cats . Bird populations are plummeting. And that's nae joke.
ReplyDeleteFair point, but SNP Baaaad!
DeleteThe best birds will always survive!
DeleteAll that money, all those thousands of hours of investigation. Why no prosecutions? SNP Baaaad. It’s almost as though this was a political smear campaign and idiots fell for it. Now the SNP want to eat all our cats! And some weirdo that lives near Murrayfield has cats locked up in his big hoose. Ah but, ah but. Fraud, they stole ma money. That guy better no be right. So angry.
ReplyDeleteWhere's the £620,000 they stole from the fundraiser, then?
DeletePolice Scotland did their job and put together the evidence for a credible case to send those responsible to jail.
Dorothy Bain, who Nicola Sturgeon appointed to her cabinet position as Scotgov's legal principal, then made sure the prosecution service sat on it to quash the case. Bain's other role is, of course, the chief of that service.
This isn't even a conspiracy *theory*, that is her job. And this is a blatant conflict of interest.
FOR SALE. Large blue tent. Also a selection of gullible lying idiots, who claim to have concrete evidence of theft, embezzlement, cat murder and any other crime you can think up against the SNP. Annoyingly they won’t give their evidence to ra polis! But they clearly have that evidence otherwise they would just be lying wee SNP Baad fantasists. All interested parties should contact Ra Polis. And send in their dossier of evidence. Ta much.
DeleteAnon at 7.59. Gie yur evidence tae ra polis ya dobber, or they’re puir gonna get away way it. Come oan. The dossier ya dobber. Or are you just a wee sad fantasist liar making things up?
DeleteAnon at 7.59. Are you familiar with cognitive dissonance? You come across as a bit unhinged.
DeleteThe police already have it. They compiled a significant case and submitted it to the COPFS many months ago. Since then, Police Scotland is the one that's spoken out about how long it's taking the procurator to go forward with the case.
DeleteWhy aren't they, Dorothy? Seems dodgy, eh?
"The COPFS have it!"
DeleteAnon at 8.39. Because the evidence does not support your allegation of criminal conduct? When did you send in your dossier of evidence? Astonishing!
DeleteThe Police wouldn't have wasted their time proceeding as far as they did to produce such a substantial final report.
DeleteNor would they be grumbling to the media about how annoyed they are that COPFS is taking so long to do anything about it. The prosecutor should have either gone forward to trial or not, but instead they're sitting on it. This is way outside of established practice.
Anon at 8.58. Are you going to buy the tent? The police investigated and it appears that they could not come up with evidence of criminal conduct. The police then extended their investigation, and still could not find sufficient evidence. You refer to a substantial report. Are you claiming to have seen the report? And what do you mean by substantial? Lots of pages? The police now need to carry out a damage limitation exercise, thus their recent statements. A political smear campaign has taken place. NP Baaaders are hurting.
DeleteRemarkably restrained comments from the SNP Baaad liars and fantasists today compared to yesterday. Reality dawning on them? Let’s not forget though. They spread lies and disinformation just as readily as the BBC and the MSM. They are also unhappy bunnies over on WOS.
DeleteAsk around. Do normal folk like the SNP, Scotgov and the way things are right now? Or do they smell rank incompetence and more than a little corruption?
DeleteIf it’s all sunshine and roses, why’s the SNP so far down in polling from the last election? What went wrong, you think?
Hint: the one thing it’s not for sure is the tiny trickle of votes for Alba.
Anon at 9.59. Bit of a straw man argument? Where do I say it’s all sunshine and roses ? SNP have a huge task on their hands rebuilding their reputation as a competent govt. J S has started that process. The hugely divisive elements are being quietly dealt with. The budget negotiations were professional and labour effectively boxed into a corner. Steps are being taken to improve NHS performance but remember there are budgetary constraints not of S Gs making. Next 14 months are crucial. The smear campaign has failed and can be used now to the advantage of the Indy cause. Lots to do and it’s been a terrible three or so years but I am more optimistic now than I was even six months ago. The SNP Baad brigade are on the back foot and clutching at straws. Their abusive dishonest posts tell their own story. I would like to see a bit more passion and inspiration from J S but he is what he is. And he’s not N S thankfully.
DeleteAnon at 11.02am you have forgotten to mention that Swinney was there as Deputy FM during the incompetent governing years. So that undermines your analysis. What smear campaign has failed? The smear campaign instituted by Sturgeon against Salmond was certainly a success and it continues to this day against a dead man.
DeleteAnon at 11.11. My comment is accurate. You spend your time looking backwards if you want. If you want to pretend you do not know what smear campaign is being referred to on you go. Throw in the Campervan and missing funds as well if you want. Do you want to buy a tent? Those seeking Indy are looking forward, and not listening to you and your fellow SNP Baad pals.
Delete11.30am Your post is deflecting dross. Why would I want to buy a tent. Idiotic comment. It’s a motorhome and no I don’t want to buy one of them either. Detail not your speciality is it. But incoherent rants are. If it is all just a smear campaign then why did Sturgeon not say her husband has done no wrong and neither has the Treasurer Colin Beattie? All she said was that she had done no wrong. Why did all these people resign from the SNP including their long standing auditors? Why did the new auditors qualify the accounts by saying that documentation relating to donations were not available.
DeleteAnon at 12.14. Not the sharpest are you?. All three have stated their position. What do you allege they have done? Be specific as you like detail.They also all said why they felt it appropriate to resign. Pleasant change from the behaviour of unionists. And the qualification of the accounts is a pretty routine one. If you knew anything about business and accounting practices you would understand. You clearly do not. So let’s have the detail you are so keen on. What do you allege they each have done? In your own time.
DeleteAnd the offer of the tent still stands. Details please. No? Another fantasist liar perhaps? Oh dear, not going well, this attention to detail thing you are so keen on.
DeleteCome on anon at 12.14. Jump to it. What have they each done? Away back to WOS.
DeleteSilence from the man at 13.14 who loves details until you ask him for them. Another SNP Baaader called out for the liar he is.
DeleteGosh a typo.
DeleteLiar at 12.14 alert.
DeleteYou seem very irate and angry anon at multiple times. Do you have a personal interest in the Sturgeon. Are you her bestie Val McDiarmid?
DeleteAnon liar at 12.14 was asked a very simple question. His silence is deafening. Yet another SNP Baaad liar. Big on detail until you ask him to give some. Then nothing. Anon at 1.24. If you want to stick up for a liar that’s s your call. No anger from me, just contempt.
DeleteAnon at 3.23pm it is a simple question raised by a simpleton. In Scotland, simple Simon anon, the police carry out investigations not members of the public. In this case the police have handed over their evidence to COPFS and charged Murrell with embezzlement. It isn’t hard to understand unless you are a simpleton.
DeleteSturgeon has not resigned from the SNP or as an MSP.
Beattie has not resigned from the SNP or as an MSP.
Murrell has resigned from the SNP for lying about membership numbers.
A long standing auditor company resigning and then the new auditors adding qualifications on the annnual accounts about missing documentation re donations is not usual.
Your points/ accusations have been addressed.
No you have not answered. What do you allege they have done? You are big on detail. Answer the question. No? Just another SNP Baaad liar. YOU said they had all resigned. Who is the simpleton? You apparently. What a moron. Again, tell us what you allege they have done? Waiting.
DeleteSad sack SNP Baader about to deny his own Anon posts because he has flatly contradicted himself. What a moron.
DeleteComplete nutter @6.06pm making up stuff. I NEVER said Sturgeon or Beattie had resigned. The people I was referring to were the SNP Treasurer who Murrell would not let see the SNP financial books and the internal auditors all who resigned only months after being elected by the SNP membership because Murrell would not let them look at the SNP accounts.
DeleteYou anon @ 6.06pm are a simpleton and an angry nutter. Speak to the police if you want to find out why they have charged Murrell and investigated Sturgeon and Beattie but you could google the word embezzlement if you don’t understand what it means. While you are at it you could also google the word ring-fenced. After that take a Valium have a lie down and stop posting like a deranged madman.
Why is there an idiot going on about selling and buying a blue tent. Does he not realise this is not eBay or Gumtree.
DeleteAnon at 9.14pm - you answered your own question - he is an idiot and an angry deranged one to boot.
DeleteBallot Box Scotland has a scathing article on Find Out Now Polls, apologies if this has been referenced above already.
ReplyDelete“ Long Read: A Plea for Plausible Polling”
“ TL;DR Version of this piece: You may have seen a poll this weekend from FindOutNow. You may also have noticed Ballot Box Scotland has not covered it, nor did I cover the previous one. That is deliberate. In short, I think it’s the biggest pile of rubbish I have ever seen come out of a poll in seven years running this project.
It is obviously not the case that there is a statistical four-way tie for second place. It is obviously not the case Alba are surging whilst the SNP are stabilising, without their central figure and after failing to do so whilst the SNP were in freefall.
Scotland doesn’t get enough polling for us to be able to afford bad data being put into the mix. Stop commissioning bad polling. You might think you’re getting a bargain but all you’re doing is muddying the waters.”
https://ballotbox.scot/long-read-a-plea-for-plausible-polling/
It's interesting that SGP and BBS have very different approaches to this poll.
DeletePersonally, I think the pollster’s past form is pretty awful. I wouldn’t go as far as BBS does and chuck them out of the average entirely, though. But downweight them, for sure.
DeleteAs the US election showed again, sometimes the outlier pollsters are proven right, against all “expectations.” The more polls the better, always.
The Nate Silver / old 538 crew view is to throw all polls (of a given level of credibility) into the average and then let the frothiness come out in the wash. But that relies on there being enough polling by different outlets for this approach not to be skewed too much by the Find Out Now type firms.
DeleteWhat BBS is doing wrong is chucking out whole firms worth of polling based on intuition. (Meanwhile, what everyone else from James to Prof. Curtice is arguably doing wrong is taking Find Out Now and Redfield & Wilton at honest face value!) You really shouldn't plop your thumb right on the scale when you're a polling analyst, especially when there are so few polls conducted in Scotland.
DeleteNow, I agree with BBS that two pollsters in particular are, for whatever procedural reason) publishing far outlier numbers now. (Of if you prefer the technical jargon: "bollocks.") But what to do about it?
I've always liked the way Nate Silver handles this by calculating just how much to trust each individual pollster at FiveThirtyEight:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings
That's a luxury we don't really have here in Scotland, though, as polling is so much sparser on the ground. A simplified version could be worth a shot, though. The more a pollster missed the last election result, the lower to weight their current polling.
@8:40. Aye, Nate Silver's a big advocate for chucking in ALL THE POLLS, as cherry picking will always bite you in the end. He did, however, weight them by past accuracy as I mentioned and linked to. It's a little more complex than tossing every poll into the pot, as some of them really are consistently off over there.
DeleteThe trouble here is that a whole news cycle is often based on a single poll. That's… hard to "weight." But polling averages can do better than to pretend all polls are honest or that some pollsters must be ignored.
Who is Nate Silver? Is he a celebrity?
DeleteHe's the American equivalent of Prof. John Curtice, so actually kinda yes!
DeleteImagine Curtice at a high stakes poker tournament, and you've basically got him. The American public knows him as the numbers guy the cable news shows go to on election night. While Twitter knows him as an attention seeking troll who loves to wind up his fellow libs.
He knows fuck all about Scotland, though.
I’m the 8:40 anon.
ReplyDeleteYes, points fully taken on board re. weighting etc. and ex-538 Nate. I’m posting amidst school drop offs so apologies for simplifying too much above.
BallotBox Scotland confirming what many of us have suspected for a while now re Find Out Now polls.
ReplyDeleteConfirming how, though? He thinks they’re bollocks, which they could be. But he offers no proof of this opinion. That’s the problem with lobbing out polls you don’t agree with: the point of polls is to give us something besides our own guesswork to deal with.
DeleteBBS is a highly regarded commentator.
ReplyDeleteBy himself, certainly.
DeleteThese polls are good for the SNP.
ReplyDeleteJohn Swinney has led with an increasingly steady hand
His hand was wobbly before? You take that back, unbeliever!
DeleteLeft or right? Or both? And still no prosecutions. Grrrr.
DeleteZzzzzzz
DeletePolls are polls. Agenda ridden and not to be relied upon. The end. Thank you.
ReplyDeleteIt's worth remembering that Prof. Curtice declared Alba to be "D.O.A." in 2021. So I don't think he could be accused of conscious bias towards the party.
DeleteThe percentage is hugely important. 5.5 per cent or thereabouts is not going to win list seats.
ReplyDeleteNobody told the Greens that in 2011 or the Lib Dems in 2016.
DeleteExamples?
DeleteExamples?
DeleteSimple question to ask. IF everybody still seems to punt that the reason we don't have independence is solely down to Nicola Sturgeon and all who sail in the Snp - with allegedly a Yes movement out there of 1.5 million brain the size of a planet we are the ones who know how to get independence so down with the SNP - why hasn't the Yes movement formed itself into a brain the size of the planet superior independence party, put prime independence we have all the answers candidates forward and cut to the chase and won over all of Scotland and have the country gagging for independence and getting the country at large to rush to vote for independence?
ReplyDeleteSurely everything else is just going round in circles avoiding the obvious? If the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon, or Swinney, or whomever the Yes movement disnae like are the sole reason we don't have independence - the simplest thing in the world is for others to put themselves forward, win over the country and just do it?
Thousands of alleged Yessers back in 2020 said they just wanted rid of Nicola Sturgeon and wanted her replaced with Joanna Cherry because they thought Joanna Cherry was the sure bet to win independence. So they frantically began the anti Nicola Sturgeon and anti SNP guerilla war to down the SNP and particularly Nicola Sturgeon. So why didn't they do the obvious - form a new independence party with their favoured Joanna Cherry leading it - be completely publicly open about the aim (instead of under the radar) - and just get on, do the work, and win it? Why the hesitation? Why waste all that time on guerilla warfare against the SNP instead of just getting out there and going it alone? Was the hesitation some doubt that if they went public on their aims they wouldn't get support? What on earth was the problem? Why did they think they were not assured of getting enough support as themselves, claiming they have all the answers - and just going out and doing it? Unless they all the time had some other priority?
So many people said that only Alex Salmond 'deserved' to take the country to independence and they wanted to stop Nicola Sturgeon ever achieving it. So when Sturgeon got the numbers to 58%, some people seem to have panicked that she might have us on the road to success - but instead of backing that success, they instead decided she had to be got rid of. So, in that case, if Alex Salmond was deemed the only person who 'deserved' to get independence, why did they not back up that mindset and fully get behind Alba and get on and win it - IF independence was actually the aim? It kind of looks as if it just wasn't the aim but was a red herring. The anti-SNP/Nicola Sturgeon/John Swinney concentration seems to have been the alleged Yes movement's keep independence in a holding pattern until the grudges have been salved - and this might as well just go on for years and years without independence ever REALLY being the goal at all. The rational observation would seem to be - that all those out there claiming they have the answer to getting the country on side, getting a referendum and seriously pushing for independence - are merely dallying with demagoguery, offering pretendy solutions, saying they have them - but not undertaking any rational activity towards proving they have the solutions. The red herring to them not having any answers and knowing they come up against exactly the same roadblocks stopping the SNP SG and have no answers - is simply to regurgitate the trope that it's solely the SNP SG stopping us getting independence. There seems to be an awful lot of victimhood psychology driving some people. The 'we don't get any attention, we don't get any thanks for the work we do, the SNP get all the media attention and it's unfair, it will be unfair if the SNP get any more seats in 2026'. So for some people, it's all a populist mission - if my name isn't on the pedestal for having got a referendum or independence, I'll stop anybody else. School playground time wasting.
Anon at 1.25pm A complete work of fiction. I'm sure Val McDiarmiid could knock that together in no time at all with her bestie Sturgeon helping her. Expect to see that in Sturgeon's book.
DeleteThere is very little difference in content and tone between SGP and WGD.
ReplyDeleteBoth are SNP before country. Both have the same business model.
I propose a merger:
Wee Scot Grifter Dug Goes Pop (WSGDGP)
As opposed to the 'Wingnut Site', whose only purpose and business model is to burn down all the mainstream Indy Parties and line his own pockets from the cranially-challenged.
DeleteI propose a merger - Wings And Reform Tory Shite - W.A.R.T.S.
Better to have warts and all than be a Franny.
Delete