A good day for Kate Forbes, and a bad day for Stephen Flynn, as Survation poll shows the public still want Forbes as the next SNP leader

Some more details have just been released from the new Survation poll, commissioned by True North Advisers and the Holyrood Sources podcast.  For my money the most interesting result is on the question of who the public want to see as the next SNP leader, which as far as I can recall hasn't been asked by any polling firm since John Swinney took over.

Who is your preferred candidate for SNP leader after John Swinney?

Kate Forbes 25%

Stephen Flynn 13%

Neil Gray 4%

Màiri McAllan 4%

Jenny Gilruth 3%

In other circumstances it might have been possible to say that Kate Forbes is being flattered at this stage by her higher profile - after all, she's the current Deputy First Minister and has stood for the leadership before.  But given Stephen Flynn's prominence during the televised debates for the general election, it would be hard to argue that he's significantly less well known than Ms Forbes, and there are numbers elsewhere in the poll that broadly demonstrate that.  16% of respondents don't know who Mr Flynn is, compared to 9% for Ms Forbes.  So it does look like the public are expressing a genuine preference for Ms Forbes over Mr Flynn on a relatively level playing field.

Of course Ms Forbes was posting similarly impressive numbers with the public during the 2023 leadership election, but Humza Yousaf was able to argue that it didn't matter because he often had the lead among actual SNP voters.  Can Stephen Flynn claim a similar alibi this time?  It's certainly not straightforward for him to do that, because there are six different samples of "SNP voters" in this poll, and Kate Forbes is ahead in three of them, with Mr Flynn ahead in the other three.  Ms Forbes has the lead among people who actually voted SNP in both the constituency and list ballots of the 2021 Holyrood election, and among people who plan to vote SNP on the Holyrood list ballot in 2026.  But Mr Flynn has the lead among people who voted SNP in the 2024 Westminster election, and among those who plan to vote SNP in the next Westminster election, and also among those who plan to vote SNP in the 2026 Holyrood constituency ballot.  So that muddies the waters a bit, but it still leaves Kate Forbes with the clearest-cut bragging rights as the public's choice.

One thing is for sure - any project to build up a non-Flynn alternative to Kate Forbes has completely and utterly failed, and it looks highly likely that if there had been, for example, a Kate Forbes v Neil Gray leadership election last year, Ms Forbes would have won handsomely.

There's also another question that I haven't seen asked for a very, very long time, which is a multi-option question about who would be the best First Minister - and on past form that ought to be more predictive of the Holyrood election result than the net ratings for leaders that we see much more commonly.

Looking ahead to the Scottish Parliament elections in 2026 who, in your view, would make the best First Minister of Scotland?

John Swinney (SNP) 25%

Anas Sarwar (Labour) 16%

Russell Findlay (Conservatives) 10%

Alex Cole-Hamilton (Liberal Democrats) 7%

That could well be curtains for Labour, because it's hard to see how they'll overcome the unpopularity of the Starmer administration in London with a Scottish branch leader who is himself significantly less popular than the SNP leader.  And I'm sure we're all utterly baffled that Alex Cole-Hamilton's self-styled "fast bowling" is failing to pick up any wickets.  Maybe it's time to return to the tried and tested "Calypso Cricket" of Willie Rennie?

There are traditional net ratings in the poll as well, which are also very favourable for the SNP...

Net ratings of Holyrood leaders:

John Swinney (SNP): -1

Kate Forbes (SNP): -2

Russell Findlay (Conservatives): -7

Alex Cole-Hamilton (Liberal Democrats): -9

Anas Sarwar (Labour): -12

Ash Regan (Alba): -14

Patrick Harvie / Lorna Slater (Greens): -18

Net ratings of Westminster leaders:

Ed Davey (Liberal Democrats): -3

Stephen Flynn (SNP): -5

Carla Denyer / Adrian Ramsay (Greens): -10

Kemi Badenoch (Conservatives): -17

Keir Starmer (Labour): -23

Nigel Farage (Reform UK): -26

This should be some kind of corrective for those who think Reform are breaking through in the same way in Scotland that they are further south.  Farage's GB-wide personal ratings have tended to be significantly better than that of late.

There's also an interesting question that offers a twist on the familiar question of whether the Scottish Government or the UK Government should have the most influence on the way Scotland is run, because local councils are offered as a third option.  As usual, the Scottish Government is the runaway winner, with local councils trailing in a poor third place with just 9% support.  Not much comfort there for Labour politicians who think that "elected Mayors" are suddenly going to capture the public imagination and replace Holyrood in voters' affections.

Respondents were asked which party they trust most to stand up for Scotland interests.  33% said the SNP and 16% said Labour.  Just 2% said Alba, even though Alba seem to have been offered as one of the main menu of options.

Only 21% are satisfied with the performance of the UK Labour government, with 53% dissatisfied. 26% think the UK Labour government's performance makes it more likely that Scottish Labour will be the largest party after the Holyrood election (why?!) and 41% think it makes it less likely.

The headline Holyrood voting intention numbers are very close to the estimates I published yesterday, although there are a couple of minor differences, and the seats projection is a smidgeon better for the pro-indy side.  The SNP and Greens in combination have 63 seats, with unionist parties on 66 seats.