Keir Starmer said:
— Howard Beckett (@BeckettUnite) July 2, 2024
“Israel 🇮🇱 does have that right" to cut water and power from Gaza 🇵🇸
If you remember one interview on Thursday then remember this one.
Starmer & Labour have given Netanyahu cover for genocide.
Don’t forgive him. Don’t vote for him.pic.twitter.com/488zRLF3KN
A pro-independence blog by James Kelly - voted one of Scotland's top 10 political websites.
Thursday, July 4, 2024
Keir Starmer supported the illegal starvation of the innocent civilian population of Gaza. He is not fit to run a parish council, let alone the UK government. Don't vote Labour this evening, vote for a pro-independence party that cares about human life.
Stuart Campbell has not only turned against independence, he's turned against the rights of women and girls. If anyone is crazy enough to follow his advice today, make sure you hold him accountable for the long-term consequences.
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
The Scot Goes Pop recommendation for Election 2024: please vote, and please vote for a pro-independence party (and yes, the SNP are a pro-independence party)
Apologies if the title sounds a bit self-important, but with so much irresponsible advice flying around at a moment of maximum danger for our movement, I want there to be no doubt at all about what I'm saying. If you want independence, you have to vote for it. And even just to keep hopes of independence alive, you have to vote for it. There is no five-dimensional chess available that allows you to get independence by voting against it or by abstaining. If enough people vote against pro-independence parties tomorrow, no matter what their motivation for doing so, the cause could suffer a 1979-style setback that would take fifteen or twenty years to recover from.
I've spent the last few weeks looking closely at individual constituency races, but even if I hadn't done that, it would be a statement of the obvious that in 56 out of 57 constituencies, the SNP will have the pro-independence candidate with by far the largest number of votes. Not all of those 56 seats are winnable for the SNP but a lot of them are, and a lot of them appear to be on a knife-edge right now. Under the first-past-the-post voting system, that's inevitably something that has to be taken into account when deciding whether to vote for the SNP or for another pro-indy candidate who can't realistically win. The same logic applies in the Western Isles, but in reverse, because it appears that Angus MacNeil is in with a shout there and the SNP aren't.
There's also the issue of the national popular vote. If by any chance the SNP were to beat Labour in the popular vote, which may be odds against but after last night's Savanta poll can't be totally ruled out, it would be a tremendous boost for the independence cause and would be recognised as such by the media. It would be frustrating to fall short of that by only a few votes.
Nevertheless, there are Alba candidates in nineteen constituencies. As a member of the Alba party I am required to support those candidates, and I of course do so, in spite of my misgivings about a party that billed itself when it was founded as a "list only party" now making a widescale intervention in a first-past-the-post Westminster election. That's something that no reasonable person could have anticipated when they joined the party in 2021 based on the statements the leadership was making at that time, and with the best will in the world it may risk splitting the Yes vote and help unionist parties to win a few seats they otherwise wouldn't. I stick to what I've been consistently saying since I was on the Alba NEC myself in 2021-22 - the strategy should have been to stand in only two or three seats, and commit all available resources into those seats to create a bubble-like by-election atmosphere. There would still have been risks, but that would have been the closest thing to a win/win, because it would have kept Alba in the public eye in the build-up to 2026 but wouldn't have caused a widespread split Yes vote. There also might just have been an outside chance of getting Neale Hanvey re-elected in Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy, but I suspect resources have been spread too thin for that to be realistically possible now.
Barring any mishaps with the photo ID, I will be voting SNP tomorrow, because I live in Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch which has no Alba candidate. I have no hesitation in urging anyone who lives in one of the thirty-seven constituencies where Alba or Angus MacNeil are not standing to join me in voting SNP. The future of our country depends on it.
Incidentally, I'd draw your attention to a long letter in The National from a few days ago by Andy Anderson, who was a member of Alba but left in horror when he realised that the party was planning to put up candidates in a first-past-the-post election. I don't agree with everything in the letter, in fact there are several points I strongly dispute. But it does illustate that there are people out there who are basically in tune with Alba's thinking about how to use the 2026 election to win independence, but feel excluded from supporting that effort because they disagree with the party's Westminster election strategy. In fact the problem goes further than that, because Alba itself has told members who do not, for example, totally disavow the candidacy of Eva Comrie in Alloa and Grangemouth that they are no longer welcome in the party.
If people who want to support Alba on the list in 2026 are told they can't because Alba has turned itself into an exclusive club with draconian rules about how you had to think and act during the 2024 Westminster election, where are those people going to go in 2026? The answer is I don't know, but they're going to go somewhere, and it's likely to duplicate whatever Alba are doing in 2026 in a way that will not be helpful. I really do think Alba needs to mature as a party and become a broad church for anyone who wants to use the list vote in 2026 to bring independence closer. There needs to be room for those people to agree to disagree on the wisdom of what was done in the current campaign, otherwise Alba will be cutting off its nose to spite its face. 2026 is the opportunity for Alba, not this election, and it needs as many people on board for 2026 as possible.
Please vote tomorrow
Please remember to take your photo ID with you
Please vote for a pro-independence party
Please vote SNP if you live in one of the thirty-seven constituencies where Alba or Angus MacNeil are not standing
The SNP won't be too unhappy with the final YouGov seats projection
After last night's poor seats projection for the SNP from Survation, I've been nervously waiting for the final projection from YouGov, who are the most experienced firm with MRP. It's kind of middling - they have the SNP on eighteen seats, which if you think about it isn't that much fewer than the 24 projected from last night's Savanta poll that had an outright SNP lead in the popular vote. The important thing is that it's in line with the previous two YouGov projections of 17 and 20 seats respectively, which means there is absolutely no corroboration for Survation's view that there has been a big swing against the SNP over the campaign. Survation look increasingly like an outlier on that point.
The individual seat projections predictably show a sea of red in the central belt, but it's broken by SNP wins in Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, Edinburgh East & Musselburgh, North Ayrshire & Arran and also in two symbolically important seats - Paisley & Renfrewshire South (formerly held by Mhairi Black) and Mid Dunbartonshire (held by Jo Swinson until 2019). The SNP are also on course to defeat Douglas Ross in Aberdeenshire North & Moray East but are falling short in three notionally Tory-held seats: Gordon & Buchan, Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk and Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale. All three of those are tight, though (the SNP are within five points). The two Aberdeen seats and the two Dundee seats are all in the SNP column, although Aberdeen North is pretty close.
Fans of Joanna Cherry (which includes me) will be heartened to know that although she's nominally behind Labour, her seat is classed as a toss-up. Deidre Brock is similarly very close to holding on in Edinburgh North & Leith, as is Alan Brown in Kilmarnock & Loudoun. There are a handful of other central belt seats where the SNP still look to be in contention, including East Renfrewshire, which would be a very satisfying hold because the Labour candidate is Blair McDougall.
In the Western Isles, Labour are supposedly on course to defeat the SNP by 40% to 31%, with Angus MacNeil on a maximum of 7%, which demonstrates the severe limitations of MRP projections in atypical constituency races. All of the indications from the ground are that MacNeil is likely to be in the top two alongside Labour.
Jamie Stone is holding on for the Lib Dems in Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross, but only just - Lucy Beattie is estimated to be only two points behind him for the SNP. I know many people will be sceptical about that, but with the boundary changes being so radical you just never know.
The lower bound for SNP seats is 8, and the upper bound is 34, meaning that YouGov are saying an SNP overall majority is still just about possible.
Incidentally, YouGov have made a really odd factual error in their write-up. They say their projection of 32 seats for Labour in Scotland would return the party to roughly their level of strength from the 2005 and 2010 elections, when they had "27". In fact, Labour won 41 seats in Scotland in both of those elections, so they'd be falling a fair bit short of that.
Meanwhile, the new More In Common projection has the SNP on sixteen seats, which is also fairly stable since the last update.
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I've previewed the constituency races in Perth & Kinross-shire and Rutherglen for The National - you can read the articles HERE and HERE.
The bombshell hits: the SNP *take the lead* in sensational eve-of-election Savanta poll
Tuesday, July 2, 2024
Thoughts on the penultimate Survation seats projection
I'm not sure the latest Survation MRP update is as significant as people are assuming, because if the fieldwork dates are anything to go by, it's based on about 80% of the same interviews as the previous update. The top-up of new data hasn't made the situation better for the SNP but it hasn't made it dramatically worse either. And as an anonymous commenter pointed out on the previous thread, the credibility of the projection that the SNP will get only 10 seats hinges on whether you believe the popular vote figures, which show Labour 11 points ahead of the SNP. That's possible, but it's significantly out of step with the conventional polling (so far). If you think the SNP are a bit closer to Labour than that, it would mean they'd probably end up with more than 10 seats.
The most recent batch of conventional polls show...
Aaaaaaargh! Is there ANY way of saving Our Precious Union in Aberdeen North?
But the Tories were second in Aberdeen North last time. And then there's Perth and Kinross-shire: Labour tell me to vote tactically for them, but then that lovely Stephen Daisley tells me only the Tories can win. I'm so confused, David. WHAT DO I DO WITH MY PRO-UK TACTICAL VOTE? https://t.co/RYXPD4a1b0
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) July 2, 2024
Hi James, I'm the #ScottishLabour candidate for #AberdeenNorth. I've posted a recent poll tracker from the Financial Times below - it's a two horse race between the SNP and Labour here. The Conservatives and LibDems are too far behind. pic.twitter.com/8HO6fwBXdo
— Councillor Lynn Thomson (@LTLabour) July 2, 2024
Thanks Lynn, but I've checked Wikipedia, and it says the Tories were 2500 votes ahead of Labour in 2019. Doesn't that mean Aberdeen North is a two-horse race between the SNP and the Tories? It's so confusing, people could accidentally HELP the SNP with their pro-UK tactical vote.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) July 2, 2024
Hi James, Aberdeen North was Labour from 1935 until 2015. We were not doing well in 2019 so our vote was lower than usual. We've spoken to thousands of people since the start of this year and what we're finding on the doorstep reflects the FT tracker.
— Councillor Lynn Thomson (@LTLabour) July 2, 2024
That's interesting but I've heard from the Tories that they're also getting a great response on the Aberdeen North doorstep and that they may be the choice for the discerning pro-UK tactical voter. So confusing.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) July 2, 2024
UPDATE: A few hours later, the Tory candidate for Aberdeen North turned up and joined in the chat too. Lesson: if you want to grab the attention of our imperial masters, just mention the words "pro-UK tactical voting" to them. Works every time. The Lib Dem will be along shortly.
Yes, lend me your vote, & you get the added bonus of a local candidate focused on your priorities. Lived in North for 20 years & ready to serve! 🗳️🇬🇧
— Gillian Tebberen 🇬🇧 (@gilltebberen4N) July 2, 2024
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I've written three more constituency profiles for The National - Orkney & Shetland, Paisley & Renfrewshire North and Paisley & Renfrewshire South.
Monday, July 1, 2024
My day out in Dundee: the Alba manifesto launch, HMS Unicorn, and the Frenchman who was hellbent on giving me money
Labour in Scotland are running on two of the most fraudulent slogans since George Bush said "Read my lips, no new taxes"
Those two slogans are -
"This is an opportunity Scotland can't afford to miss!"
If the opportunity here is "a Labour government", that's a rather rum opportunity Scotland couldn't miss even if it tried. The voters of England decide general elections in the UK, and with three days to go there is no remaining doubt that they will elect a Labour government with a landslide. There is, however, an opportunity that Scotland does have and can choose and therefore could miss, and that is the opportunity to have an independent bloc of Scottish MPs as a counterweight to an all-powerful Starmer government and that will speak up for Scotland rather than being sycophantic cheerleaders for every decision made in London. "An opportunity you can't afford to miss" really means "please miss the only opportunity you have, because we want to be able to do whatever the hell we like without anyone even being there to question us".
Oh, and by the way, Ian Murray as Secretary of State of Scotland is an opportunity that any sensible person can easily afford to miss, thank you very much.
"The change that Scotland needs"
If the election in Scotland is defined mainly as a contest between the SNP and Labour, then the SNP represent the radical change of independence and Labour represent the no change position - both constitutionally and in every other sense, because they are committed to largely continuing Tory policies when in power. Labour have spent the last seventeen years running in terror from the radical change the SNP represents and doing everything they can to prevent and frustrate it. They see this election as a golden opportunity to finally put an end to all hopes of change in Scotland once and for all. To run on a "change" pitch in that context is the height of cynicism - in fact it's Orwellianism on stilts.
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I have two more constituency profiles in The National - North Ayrshire & Arran and North East Fife
Motherwell and Western Isles constituency previews
I've written previews of the constituency races in Motherwell, Wishaw & Carluke and Na h-Eileanan an Iar for The National - you can read them HERE and HERE.
One point I was half-toying with making in the Na h-Eileanan an Iar piece, but it would have been too much of a digression, was that we've heard a great deal of talk in this election about "change", mostly from politicians who love the status quo, but the Western Isles really are undergoing a profound and negative change. I saw a YouTube video two or three years ago in which an American travels to Lewis to try to track down some genuine Gaelic speakers, but is disappointed to discover that young people who know the language don't actually use it in their day-to-day lives. "But my granny does!" one of them explains.
However, he then spends the evening in a pub, where the youngsters eventually start singing traditional songs in fluent Gaelic. At that point he concludes the language is safe for the future - apparently oblivious to the fact that he's just observed precisely the way in which a language dies, ie. when only the elderly use it as a fully-fledged social language and the young relegate it to a few peripheral spheres.
As far I know Gaelic is still a majority language in places like Uist and Barra, so it still has a toehold and therefore a chance, but it really is in the last chance saloon now and urgent protective action needs to be taken.
On the subject of Motherwell, you might be interested to read this Glasgow Herald article about the Motherwell by-election of April 1945, which was won by the SNP. Even though war was still raging, the two main campaign issues seem to have been Prestwick Airport and the Forth Road Bridge! Jarringly modern...
Sunday, June 30, 2024
Independence BOMBSHELL hits Westminster just days before general election as Yes support rockets to *50%* in new Norstat poll - SNP support increases by 1% as Swinney emerges again as most popular leader in Scotland
It's a great pity that we're four days away from a general election rather than an independence referendum, because we'd be on the brink of victory in the latter if tonight's new Norstat poll is to be believed.
Should Scotland be an independent country? (Norstat)