Norstat poll: SNP on course for astonishing 2019-style landslide, Labour on course for near-wipeout, and Reform UK have overtaken the Tories

Don't worry, I don't think anyone has been crazy enough to publish a poll on Christmas night (although actually that has happened in the past when the 26th fell on a Sunday and the Sunday papers trickled through the night before).  However, David Francis has just spotted the Westminster numbers from the recent Norstat poll, which were missing at the time of publication, so presumably they were smuggled out at some point over the last few days without most of us noticing.

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election (Norstat / Sunday Times, 4th-6th December 2024):

SNP 31% (+1)

Labour 20% (-3)

Reform UK 15% (+1)

Conservatives 14% (-1)

Liberal Democrats 9% (-1)

Greens 6% (-)

According to David, the seats projection is as follows - 

SNP 44, Liberal Democrats 6, Conservatives 5, Labour 2 

That would effectively put July's general election result into complete reverse, and restore both the SNP and Labour to roughly where they were at the time of the 2019 election - which of course was a landslide for the SNP and an unmitigated catastrophe for Labour.  The 2024 outcome would be left looking like a historical blip, whereas Labour had been complacently assuming that the SNP's wins in 2015, 2017 and 2019 were going to be remembered as the aberrations.  However, there's a very, very, very long way to go before we see if the reversal actually happens.  

Although the SNP's lead is handsome, it has to be said that it's not quite as impressive as the Holyrood constituency numbers from the same poll, which have the SNP in the high 30s, with a sixteen point advantage over Labour.  The swing to the SNP at Westminster since the previous Norstat poll (2%) is lower than the equivalent swing on the Holyrood constituency ballot (3%).

Also of note is that Reform have overtaken the Tories in Scotland for the first time, although the two parties were level in the Norstat poll in August.

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