Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp, who was ultimately responsible for commissioning the Norstat poll question about the monarchy and independence, left a series of irate comments on Scot Goes Pop yesterday. Quite frankly I think he was bang out of order, and in any other circumstances I would just have deleted his comments. But instead I replied to his "points", such as they were, and I will do so again in more detail here.
His first complaint was that I had not stated that his question had been a bolt-on to the same Norstat / Sunday Times poll that showed a Yes vote of 54% on the standard independence question. The reason I did not state that is that I did not know, and there was no possible way I could have known for sure. The data tables were not available on the Norstat website, so all I had to go on was Gordon's own tortuously-worded article on the Believe in Scotland website, which seemed to be going out of its way to make it as difficult as possible to work out whether a bolt-on question had been added to the Sunday Times poll or whether a wholly separate poll had been conducted. So I accurately stated the position as it stood - that Gordon's wording had been ambiguous and it was therefore impossible to be sure, but my impression was that a separate poll had been conducted.
Gordon harrumphs that he had made the position "quite clear" in the first sentence of the second paragraph of his "announcement". Er, no you didn't, Gordon. That was the very sentence that led me to form the strong impression that you had commissioned a separate poll and not a bolt-on question, and any other reasonable person would have reached the same conclusion. This is what you said in that sentence -
"Believe in Scotland have always used Norstat as our polling provider and we had a poll of our own going at the same time with the same panel of respondents."
For future reference, Gordon, if you don't want to convey the false impression that you had commissioned a separate poll, it might be best to try not to use highly misleading words like "we had a poll of our own going at the same time". The bit about "the same panel of respondents" did not clear the mists, because by definition all Norstat polls use the same panel - that's the way online polling firms operate. If you had instead said "the same sample", that would have been of more help. But you did not.
Frankly, my guess is that Gordon used ambiguous language quite deliberately, because he feared that directly admitting his question was a bolt-on or "piggy-back" to the Sunday Times poll would have somehow diminished the prestige of his exercise. That in my view is an unwarranted concern, but I think that's probably what was going on.
The cherry on the cake of Gordon's rant was this concluding sentence -
"James you could have just called me have we not always got on well enough?"
I mean, what? Scot Goes Pop is a polling analysis blog that tries to get as much information out as possible, as quickly as possible. Am I supposed to put everything on hold for twelve hours every time there is a point of ambiguity in the way a poll is reported, in the forlorn hope that I might get a clarifying reply from the Scotsman or whatever? I don't operate that way, and I don't plan to start operating that way.
And as it happens, Gordon, I don't think I've got your phone number. Having thought about it, the last time I spoke to you was way back in May 2021 when we appeared together on Independence Live's election results show. I doubt if that date is a coincidence, because I've formed the distinct impression that you and your organisations have quietly distanced yourselves from the likes of me since 2021 - not out of any personal animosity, but simply because you were hostile to the Alba project and were distancing yourselves from anyone associated with it.
But nevertheless it's true that before then we had always got on well enough, which is probably why I held back on Thursday from pointing out the elephant in the room, namely the downright dodgy wording of your poll question -
If Scottish independence meant that Scotland would be a republic - meaning the King would no longer be the head of state, so Scotland’s governance would be fully democratic and not a monarchy - how would you vote if there were an independence referendum tomorrow?
The words "so Scotland's governance would be fully democratic" are insanely leading. Even leaving aside the more general problems with hypothetical poll questions that I previously discussed, the use of such leading wording means the results of the poll are of very dubious worth.
Yes I agree, the wording of the question is absurd. It suggests republics like Putin's Russia or Hitler's Germany are and were more democratic than constitutional monarchies like the UK, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, Japan, New Zealand and Spain. So just ignore this poll
ReplyDeleteIf only you hadn't put "the UK" in there, that would have been an excellent point.
DeleteAnon at. 12.35pm there has never been democracy for Scotland in the UK. Democracy is the right of England only in the UK.
DeleteScotland doesn't have effective democracy within the UK (niche conjectured situations could give it inconsistently, but that's never happened yet), but the UK as a whole is comparably as democratic as the other places mentioned. The democratic deficit is only readily apparent when the UK is recognised as not being a country in itself, which many people struggle with.
DeleteUtterly hideous post from IFS@1:36.
DeleteI’m actually embarrassed for you.
You're so easily embarrassed, KC.
DeleteKC at 2.40pm - get somebody to buy you a lot of blusher for Xmas because you seem to be continually embarrassed. Got that blood off your hands yet KC. Labour adding dead UK pensioners to its list of thousands of Palestinian women and children. Labour betraying WASPI women. You really need a brass neck being a Labour supporter. Wendy Alexander retired from politics for over 20 years getting a freebie from the taxpayer courtesy of her brother. Freebies seem to be very popular for Labour. What have you got for posting your crap on SGP - a packet of Smarties?
DeleteDislogical - the use of the term " democratic deficit" is a fig leaf used by the SNP to provide cover for their inaction. There is no democracy for Scotland. The evidence is staring people in the face.
DeleteIFS,
DeleteWhat have you got for posting YOUR crap on SGP?
A lot of abuse from Britnat trolls like you KC at 3.09pm and SNP trolls like David Fisher. Well he claims to be SNP but is reluctant to prove it by stating his branch. On the other hand you KC are definitely a Britnat. You both have the same underhand tactics of trolling as a sneaky anon and you KC as independence supporters - at least two different posters - probably more.
DeleteIFS,
DeleteAh yes, I’d forgotten about “Tartan Tam” and others. Had you fooled with them allš. Then their was “Jeff McLean”, don’t think you ever sussed him outš¤£š¤£
KC at 4.17pm - don't remember a Jeff McLean ever posting so you couldnae have fooled me with that. Perhaps others will remember a Jeff McLean, I don't. Or have you just been eating too many Smarties? Do you get an upgrade to a selection box at Xmas.
DeleteI certainly remember Tartan Tam was a right tosser - similar to David Francis. Is he your new phoney unreasonable SNP Independence supporter?
You’re just claiming you don’t remember Jeff McLean because you never managed to suss him out.
DeleteKC at 4.44pm - as this is the pantomime season " oh no I don't" . You are the the SGP pantomime villain so ask the readership of SGP if anyone else remembers you as Jeff McLean.
DeleteHi there,
DeleteYes I remember Jeff McLean, must be getting on for a year ago.
He seemed a genuine independence supporter and talked a lot of sense. I’d never have guessed in a million years it was the KC character.
I also seem to remember him having debates with ifs, so don’t know how he doesn’t remember.
Hi KC at 6.44pm - you love getting into character.
DeleteDeleted Anon at 1.50: I suspect you are the same anonymous commenter who has been repeatedly attempting to make personal attacks on multiple threads for the last 36 hours. Would you please just stop. I don't know for sure who you are or what your agenda is, but I can make a shrewd guess on both counts. Take it elsewhere, many thanks.
ReplyDeleteJames, if you were commissioning this poll how exactly would you have posed the question to make the poll more legitimate? I think the word 'republic' needs some sort of definition for most people tbh.
ReplyDeleteWell, there are two problems with the question, one is the biased and leading question wording, but the other is just the tendency of hypothetical questions to produce misleading results, and the latter is very difficult to fix. I think probably the most sensible question would be simply to ask (as an Ashcroft poll did eighteen months ago) whether people think an independent Scotland should retain the monarchy or have an elected Head of State. Then you can look at the data tables, work out which groups are disproportionately likely to favour one option or the other (Yes supporters, young voters, Labour voters, women, or whatever) and draw some common sense conclusions.
DeletePolls need to be commissioned by unbiased/neutral organisations to be credible.
ReplyDeleteAnd fortunately this one was. Norstat are a reputable BPC-affiliated firm. But thanks for your concern, KC.
DeleteLet’s just get independence with the brief that within 6 months a vote on the constitution head will take place I.e HEAD OF STATE same as REPUBLIC OF IRELAND
ReplyDeleteDeleted Anon at 4.55: I know perfectly well from your writing style and your general schtick that you are the same person I deleted earlier in this thread and asked to stop. I know exactly what game you're playing, and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if you're connected with the Alba in-group in some way. You're not going to carry on with this tactic - if you force me to switch pre-moderation back on, that will be highly regrettable, but that's what I'll do. You're free to spew whatever nastiness you want to spew, but you'll do it on your own blog or online space, not on mine.
ReplyDeleteAnd two more. I am deadly serious - this is not going to go on much longer. You can be a tinpot dictator to your heart's content in your own online space, but here the moderation policy is determined by me, not by you. Kindly do everyone a favour and just go away.
Delete"If Scottish independence meant that Scotland would be a republic - meaning the King would no longer be the head of state, so Scotland’s governance would be fully democratic and not a monarchy - how would you vote if there were an independence referendum tomorrow?"
ReplyDeleteis technically wrong as well. There are still elective monarchies apparently which elect their monarch, such as Cambodia, Holy See, Malaysia and UAE.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elective_monarchy
and yes, people could be answering different questions like "Do you want Scotland's governance to be fully democratic?" which doesn't have to involve monarchy - just a dislike of the current one.
I think GMK, having fired off a load of comments here, should at least have had the courtesy of replying to the replies to his comments. There's no commenting on his blog after all.
It's possible to have a monarchy and be fully democratic - Japan is the best example of that, because the Emperor is merely a "symbol of the state" and has no political power at all. In the UK it can be argued that the monarch does have some residial power but it's fairly limited - the House of Lords is a much bigger problem for the UK's claim to be a full democracy.
DeleteGMK put this at the end of his explanation:
ReplyDelete"So this is a surprisingly poor analysis of the news given James’ past track record."
I agree about escalation being a bad thing but as it were, GMK started it. All he had to say was "I disagree with your opinion", rather than the insult of "poor analysis". GMK is no psephologist whereas SGP is.
I'm still none the wiser, did the monarchy question produce a yes boost or not?
ReplyDeleteYou're asking a virtually meaningless question, given how flawed the "fully democratic" wording was. Questions that ask people if democracy is a desirable thing tend to produce favourable results.
DeleteDeleted Anon at 5.55: You have now attempted to post five comments on this thread, plus several others on other threads. Your agenda is blindingly obvious, and you are not going to be permitted to pursue that agenda here.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure how I can make this much clearer to you. You are not welcome to post here. Do not post here again. Go away. If you do not pay heed to this polite request, I will switch pre-moderation back on, and you will prevent others from benefiting from free-flowing discussion. But that, I would guess, has been a key part of your aim all along. Sabotage for the sake of sabotage.
I make that seven now. I'm not interested in the justifications and the cover stories, just stop. It's not an unreasonable request. No-one is denying you the right to free speech - if you want to post this stuff, do it elsewhere. You have countless options open to you.
DeleteDo not reply to this post and do not post on this blog again. Thank you.
James, in his article says:- " insanely leading". That sums the matter up to me. If you want to argue the toss about the details of a poll with James you better know your stuff. Does GMK think he knows his stuff? Is he another Scottish Skier, an expert in everything?
ReplyDeleteAll these add ons to the basic Scottish independence question are all dead ends in my opinion. Why not a poll asking Scottish independence and a free bar of Daily Milk for everyone over the age of 16 at Xmas.
The basic quest for independence is going nowhere at present but here we are going on about what if we add on this or that, will it get a higher yes result. A waste of time and a journey up a blind alley to a dead end.
It will soon be 11 years since the referendum and the SNP has no plan for independence even though an independence minister was appointed. The SNP do have a 5 year plan for non bios - no wait a min that's washing powder - bio free - nope that's not it - bio diversity - no again - bi sexual - that's it - no that's not it - got it - non - binary. So the very very small number of these confused people get a full 5 year action plan with 70 page annual progress reports to deliver more equality but all the people in Scotland get nothing re the inequality of living in a colony controlled by another nation.
The SNP has lost its way and getting further away each year from its founding goal and it needs calling out by its membership.
Let's just go to the ridiculous here:
ReplyDelete"If banning anti-missile missiles meant that Scotland would not be able to intercept dangerous missiles - meaning that Scotland wouldn't be a target for missiles, so Scotland would be fully safe and not a target for Putin - how would you vote if there were a referendum on unilateral Scottish disarmament of anti-missile missiles tomorrow?"
Ummm, YES? Errr, NO?
Replace "of" by "by". It's those dreaded pronouns!
ReplyDeleteOK, I've now reached saturation point with the anonymous troll - that's eight comments within a few hours, and I've got better things to do on a Saturday evening than check every five minutes to see whether he's done it again. I'll temporarily switch pre-moderation back on to give myself a break. It'll still be possible to comment, but there'll be a delay before your comment appears.
ReplyDeletePersonally speaking, this poll brought a large smile to my coupon.
ReplyDeleteI ain't gonna argue with James or anyone else, about its methodology, because it is above my paygrade.
What I will say, though, is that its 'findings' chime with what I have been hearing from almost all the Indy folk I know and also from more and more of my unionist acqaintances ( I have a good few, believe it or not ), both within and outwith my extended family and friends circle.
The popularity of Royalty seems to be plummeting in the most unexpected quarters in Scotland and especially among some of the older Yessers who I have known for decades.
And, among the younger cohort of Pro-Indies, it is not even a question worth asking. They see Republicanism and Indy as complimentary, natural bedfellows.
As I said previously, I would welcome more polls (sooner rather than later) in a similar vein, touching on various Post-Indy possibilities for Scotland - if for no other reason than it would get those possibilities being discussed far more with the voters out there in voting-land.
All in all, I am happier that this poll was done, than not done.
Agreed
DeleteIf GMK had a little less arrogance and a bit more willingness to listen to people who know better about some things, like polling, he could be the head of YES and take the whole thing out of the hands of the SNP.
ReplyDeleteBelieve in Scotland could then be the head of the YES movement, and the SNP and the other parties, its political arm. Unfortunately he trips up over his ego and sometimes falls flat on his face.