Saturday, July 13, 2024

Labour's win in Scotland was 'loveless' but it certainly wasn't a 'landslide' - their 5.3% margin of victory over the SNP was the smallest margin for a winning party in Scotland since 1974

I can claim an assist from Jackson Carlaw on this post, because I remember him trying to undermine the SNP's 2017 win by saying their margin of victory was the smallest in Scotland for a long time.  As Labour's margin of victory is even smaller than the SNP's in 2017, it was obviously going to look even less impressive by historical standards.  

To avoid the customary objection from pedants, I'm referring to the pre-1965 Tory party by the official names of "Unionist" and "National Liberal", which were organisationally separate parties but to all and intents and purposes functioned as a single party.  In some ways the relationship was analogous to "Labour/Co-op" in the present day.  Note the anomaly that the Tories won the popular vote in 1959, even though it's generally said they last won in Scotland in 1955 (because that's when they last won a majority of seats).

Results of UK general elections in Scotland since 1945:

1945: Labour won by 6.5% over Unionists & National Liberals
1950: Labour won by 1.4% over Unionists & National Liberals
1951: Unionists & National Liberals won by 0.7% over Labour
1955: Unionists & National Liberals won by 3.4% over Labour
1959: Unionists & National Liberals won by 0.5% over Labour
1964: Labour won by 8.1% over Unionists & National Liberals
1966: Labour won by 12.2% over Conservatives
1970: Labour won by 6.5% over Conservatives
February 1974: Labour won by 3.7% over Conservatives
October 1974: Labour won by 5.9% over SNP
1979: Labour won by 10.1% over Conservatives
1983: Labour won by 6.7% over Conservatives
1987: Labour won by 18.4% over Conservatives
1992: Labour won by 13.3% over Conservatives
1997: Labour won by 23.5% over SNP
2001: Labour won by 23.8% over SNP
2005: Labour won by 16.9% over Liberal Democrats
2010: Labour won by 22.1% over SNP
2015: SNP won by 25.7% over Labour
2017: SNP won by 8.3% over Conservatives
2019: SNP won by 19.9% over Conservatives
2024: Labour won by 5.3% over SNP

So Labour's margin is the smallest since February 1974, with there having been twelve elections in the intervening period.  It's also the sixth smallest since the war, although as you can see most of the previous tight margins are heavily concentrated in the immediate post-war period when Scotland was still highly competitive between Labour and the Tories.

86 comments:

  1. Agreed. The more comfortable the English feel in their own identity, the better for us to secure our own with constitutional change. England is not our opponent, the UK is.

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  2. Is that the National's front page? Sport eh? war without guns is how it is sometimes described. Will england win? does it matter? To us in Scotland the 66 win is constantly referred to in the England-controlled media. The only media we are allowed in Scotland. A media that only gives us an english-centric view of the UK and the world. An England win, in a back to front way, may actually assist the independence movement.. by an even more belittling of Scotland's lack of achievement. Until we become a proper country and gain full control over how our resources and wealth our colony-team will always be also-rans.

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    1. My support for independence is starkly different from my disinterest in our national team and football as a sport. Ever since witnessing the despair at school when Costa Rica spanked us silly, I’ve been well aware that for all we may become as a nation, for now we truly are risible at football!!

      Water off a duck’s back for me. Football might as well be Eurovision. I’ll take independence over every sport combined, thank you very much.

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    2. Err, there's nothing stopping you from getting your "media" from wherever you want, if you don't like English TV then set up your own TV station and lets see how popular that is, or don't buy any licence and watch what you want on Youtube or netflix

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    3. Oh yes, of course, Jerry, there's absolutely nothing to stop anyone from setting up a TV station. Simplest thing in the world, no money or licensing required.

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    4. I think Jerry has clearly set out his level of intelligence by his post at 2.44. Even if it were intended as satire, which sadly it’s not, it’s still a post showing remarkable stupidity. Well done Jerry.

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  3. Is that the National's front page? Sport eh? war without guns is how it is sometimes described. Will england win? does it matter? To us in Scotland the 66 win is constantly referred to in the England-controlled media. The only media we are allowed in Scotland. A media that only gives us an english-centric view of the UK and the world. An England win, in a back to front way, may actually assist the independence movement.. by an even more belittling of Scotland's lack of achievement. Until we become a proper country and gain full control over our resources and wealth our colony-team will always be also-rans. edit1.

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  4. Stuart McDonald (SNP former MP) strongly supports Swinney as leader to 2026 in his latest piece:

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/snp-generational-defeat-2026-holyrood-scottish-parliament-elections-4700746

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  5. Replies
    1. McDonald is the living epitome of exactly what’s gone wrong with the party and why they got gubbed. Good riddance to him.

      (For now. I’m sure he’ll have a plum spot in the Glasgow list in 2026 so he can continue in his noxious work, along with fellow traveller Alyn Smith.)

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  6. Spain must not win the European Cup or the Spanish will never hear the end of it... Jeez. Very embarasing newspaper cover. If that caters to their readership, their readership is seriously ugly.

    Let the best team win. The can both play superb football. I look forward to the game.

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    1. I doubt if any true football fan would refer to it as the "European Cup" (the former name of what is now the Champions League).

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    2. Anon @11:20

      Kind of missing the point I think...

      If Spain win the Euros (or anything else) the Spanish media may well bang on about it it Spain but we in Scotland will not be subjected to that
      If England win however....

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    3. Officially it's be called Euro 2024. The trophy has 'UEFA European Championship' enscribed. Hope that helps with the pedantry.

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    4. Hardly pedantry to differentiate between two completely different competitions. The European Cup is/was a club tournament.

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  7. You fragile wee thing, Brian. Lighten up.

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  8. I suppose if thought of in terms of *swing* to Labour the figures are more impressive for them - 20% swings in many constituencies if memory serves right.

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    1. Swings from a very low base are misleading, of course. Remember that Labour did so badly last time that their leader had to be expelled as a result. Sadly, although they bounced back in Scotland this year, they flatlined in England, so doubtless Starmer will be expelled quite soon.

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    2. Starmer will be Labour leader until Farage succeeds him as the next Prime Minister.

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    3. Yes, Starmer's expulsion from Labour will be harsh but fair.

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  9. That National front page isn't just anti-English, it's bigoted, vile, an insult to the English nation - our neighbours - and the very opposite of what's needed to promote Independence. There are many English people in Scotland and many I've come across support Independence.

    "Anyone but England" is fine; such a disgusting front page isn't.

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    1. Disagree 102%

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    2. yesindyref2 at 11.55 am: Thank you for this. Beyond the football context, as an incomer via England (originally American), I'm often reading such attacks -- sadly from within the independence movement -- on my right to be here. Hasn't stopped me supporting independence, despite great uneasiness as to my civil rights once it's achieved. ALBA and SNP are both OK on the subject officially.

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    3. KP: The SNP are more than all right "officially" on that subject, they granted voting rights to Americans and all other nationalities for devolved and local elections. No unionist party would have done that in a million years. As for Alba, many of us couldn't understand why the leadership didn't shut down the nonsense in 2021 about a "blood and soil" franchise for a future indyref, because that was never party policy and is never likely to be.

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    4. KP, there are some mindless morons like that, hopefully not too many. There's some blood and soil nationalists who'd like to restrict voting in an indy ref to pure Scots, with both parents Scots. What they don't seem to understand is that if you take the both parents Scots back and back and back, there are absolutely no pure-bred Scots able to vote.

      The football "banter" is good. The text on that front page wasn't banter or funny, it was plain nasty stupidity,. As was the picture. Unfortunately I don't take the National (it's been taken over by single issue not independence columnists) otherwise I'd cancel and never buy it again.

      As James says though, you don't have to worry about your rights in an Indy Scotland. NONE of the parties are xenophobic like that, not even the Scottish Conservatives who really don't belong with the UK Tories.

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    5. "NONE of the parties" - should be "NONE of the normal parties" :-)

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    6. Every time I see that “only Scots should get the vote in indyref2” bollocks, most often of all in the comments section at Wings, it pisses me right off; and I’m a natural born Scot myself. It’s not what we are about at all.

      I’d like to see them take that policy to the electorate in their own Blood & Soil Party. Would they outlaw marriage to English and other migrants for the sake of bloodline purity, too?

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    7. "Blood and soil" is an emotive term but the concepts behind it are actually sound
      Voter eligibility or "the franchise" for any referenda on independence should be the same as for any future referenda on constitutional matters after independence and that would be based on citizenship which should be determined by a combination of parental (or grandparental) lineage and residency
      Eg If you have at least one grandparent born in Scotland and some minimum residency status, say your main residence has been in Scotland for a number of years then you get to vote on constitutional matters
      If you are a foreign national who is working or studying here while you may be included in national and local election franchises you shouldn't automatically be eligible to vote on independence or on post-independence constitutional matters

      The recent 2022 census data shows that over 500,000 people or around 10% of the Scottish population were born in England
      The equivalent figure for people born in Scotland and living in England is around only 1.2% of England's population

      I can't think of any other country in the world with such a large immigrant group from just one other country and where the institutions of that one other country are wholly committed to preventing an independent Scotland

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    8. Yesindyref2never happeningdue to people like you supporting Sturgeon. Bit of an English groveller ain’t you.

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    9. Yesindyref2 is a pathetic groveler who supports whoever everybody else does as long as somebody will talk to him

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    10. You two saddos are just jealous. I happen to know that yesindyref2 is a legend, the coolest dude in the universe, a fashion trend-setter, spurned Mensa because they were too thick, able to fend off the whole British Army with his eyes shut and one arm tied behind his back, teaches fish how to swim underwater, flies higher than an eagle while carrying an Audi Quattro under his arm for later, and likes cake.

      Very kind-hearted too, he'd give you the crumbs off his plate.

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    11. Yesindyref 2 isn’t the sharpest. And of course he proves to be a very useful idiot for the unionists.

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  10. England is a racist country because the poor souls don't know who they are
    Are they British, English UKish, the country ish?
    The problem with being British is those folks have no country to call their own, they've always just stolen everybody else's country and imposed their British label on it, but nobody can point to it on a map
    Poor souls are only English when it's football or cricket, but not Olympics when they're British or tennis when it's Wimbledon but only sometimes because the club is called The all England club
    There was a Nasty guy in Germany that had this problem in the 1930s when he was copying the British idea but it got sorted out by around 1945 because he didn't have a nice Royal Family to wave and smile at people, he did try to get some Royals to come over to his side but they hedged their bets and stuck with the Britain UK England titles
    or it all might have been completely different

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    1. There is a nasty guy from WGD called DRJIM.

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    2. This is a nasty troll called IFS

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    3. I don't care who he is he's right England's a horrible place full of horrible people

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  11. Poor choice by the National. Who cares about 2 foreign teams playing. I buy the Sunday National as a hard copy ( like reading on the Sunday) and it is better than the tripe usually served up by its daily cousin. Reaching the level of the so called Daily Star is not a complement . Folk may be put off on buying yet there may, and I mean may, have been an article inside about independence.

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  12. It was a very hollow win for Labour, everyone knows that. The SNP vote largely held up despite constant anti Scottish reporting from the media. Plus reports of cheating at polling stations cannot be overlooked. SNP will bounce back strongly in the 2026 election.

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    1. “Reports of cheating at polling stations cannot be overlooked “

      Yes, this is deeply concerning.

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    2. ^This is deeply delusional.

      The polls predicted this result. Rutherglen too. Anecdotally, most folk I know who are SNP supporters ditched them—including my dad, who has been solid SNP since before I was born.

      Get a grip, eh? The SNP was humped by scunnering a lot of its support, all across Scotland. This election was a much needed wake up call.

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    3. @2:55 that's why I said reports and not factual evidence of untoward behaviour. Use your brain please.

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    4. Sturgeon would've won

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    5. 9:01 Not a single candidate who Sturgeon campaigned for in the election held on to their seat. Not exactly the track record of a winner.

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  13. For goodness sake, the cover is meant to be taken as a joke! Compare it with the deadly serious English front pages and the jingoistic guff on the BBC, and lighten up!

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  14. Lisa Nandy supports Spain.

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    1. Don’t know about Nandy supporting Spain but we all know for a fact she supports the violent brutal suppression of Indy supporters.

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  15. The utter stupidity of that National cover is mind boggling. This kind of crap is damaging to the independence cause and, I suspect, damaging to its already declining circulation.

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    1. Thank you Jerry. You have perfectly illustrated one reason why the front cover was so moronic. Tom did the same ...

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    2. My reply was to Jerry, who's comment was deleted.

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    3. The national did the same thing as every other rag does
      They sell crap call it news and people buy it and stupid people talk about it so job done

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  16. https://x.com/paddypower/status/1811786075985027272

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    1. Are Paddy Power "racist" too?

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    2. I thought it was quite funny. Paddy Power often do this sort of thing.

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  17. Definitely think this is a poor take from The National.

    It doesn't come across as banter or a joke, it's outright insulting the English. The derogatory language used portraying them as making a mess of Spanish plazas & sponging off their public services was unnecessary.

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  18. The National’s an embarrassment.

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    1. I've just gone oot and bought a copy- wonderful! I'm framing the front page for my living room wall.

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    2. I suppose if you don't have wallpaper it might hide some stains

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  19. The anti-English bigot who wrote this embarrassing front page has clearly never been in Benidorm during the Glasgow Fair fortnight.

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  20. Surely the National article is reflecting on English football fans not the nation. They have a poor reputation across Europe .
    Viva Espana!

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  21. You do get neds from all countries. However there does seem to be a lot of them amongst the English fans.

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  22. the whole of the med is sick of the anglo - they are calling it "anti tourist protests", but the tourists are mainly "brits", i.e. english

    - everyone hates us, we don't care. And quite right too. The anglo is the XL bully of the human race, an innate biting machine, which is incorrigible.

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    1. Now then, it's totally wrong to demonise an entire people just because of they way they all behave.

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  23. Most anglos in Scotland are viciously bigoted ethno-racial supremacists, i.e. little englanders, who believe the "scotch" are anglos in denial, affecting a funny accent, and that Scotland is their possession, like Kent or Yorkshire.


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  24. Yes it's moderated but not every second of every day!

    Some unionists take advantage and post pretendy bigoted comments. But it illustrates yet again why the National article was so incredibly stupid, manna for faking unionists.

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    1. Yes. The National article was stupid. But are you saying that the subsequent anti-English hate -filled posts are made by unionists pretending to be nationalists ?

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    2. Aye. That's right.

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    3. There's nae end to the dirty tricks that Britnat unionists will try.

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    4. Nor is there any end to the time they waste, up to such ineffectual mince, online.

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    5. Anon at 7.05. That is exactly what they are. And pretty obvious to most.

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  25. Scotland now more British.

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    1. Not according to the census. You are a bit of a wally.

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    2. Anon at 12.11. What does your statement mean?

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  26. Spain must deliver tomorrow!
    I don't know why the organizers made such an easy draw for england, while all the big teams had to fight each other on the other side of the draw.
    I've never experienced the English winning a tournament and I don't want to start now

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    1. Och ma loon it's only sport dinnae tak it so seriously.
      Mair important is that the English/ brits suppress us and oor aspiration fae nationhood. Richt enooch, the Spanish dae the same tae Catalonia. Ach but fit can we dae?
      Viva Espana!

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  27. Och jings, ma boab. Whit humour. We are better than this.

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    1. Pity you cannot tell the difference from genuine Scots language ( the Doric dialect) and Daily record pseudo Scots.
      Nae doot you're an English Britnat?

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    2. Aye , and these Britnats and Scots quislings should mind that oor parliament has passed an act giving the Scots and Gaelic language official status.
      Alba gu brath!

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    3. Absolutely , Britnats will always denigrate any other language form than standard English. That's just what our colonial masters do.
      Alba gu brath!

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  28. Stephen Flynn was a class act - excellent result in his constituency.

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  29. Now Stewart McDonald is giving it full laldy: forget Indy and Learn to Love The Bomb:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/24449966.former-snp-mp-calls-john-swinney-scrap-trident-commitment/

    Be a ruthless bastard, you say? How about throwing you out of the party, that would be a welcome start!

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  30. But not pushing independence. Corbyn is a class act and had an excellent result in his constituency and he's more likely to help us to independence than Flynn

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  31. The anglo influence on Scotland must be eradicated, root and branch, with a scorched earth policy if necessary; independence is only step one in repairing 300 years of exploitation and damage, a toll paid in money, yes, but also blood, Scots dying in service of the empire, by far the greatest criminal enterprise in human history, with a bodycount that makes nazism seem tame.


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