GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 23rd-25th June 2024):
Labour 36% (-1)
Conservatives 18% (-1)
Reform UK 17% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 15% (+2)
Greens 8% (+2)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
Scottish subsample: SNP 31%, Labour 25%, Conservatives 13%, Liberal Democrats 13%, Greens 12%, Reform UK 5%
Under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, Labour took 40% of the vote in the 2017 general election, which was almost a ten point increase on what Ed Miliband managed two years earlier. Of course initially no Labour supporter will care if Starmer achieves his landslide on a substantially smaller vote share than Corbyn's first election, but it will become a talking point. Starmer keeps boasting about how he's changed his party, but it will be pointed out that making changes is somewhat less of an achievement if they don't actually make the party more popular, and if by some measures they make the party less popular. When Starmer's personal popularity plummets, as is bound to happen sooner or later, it might increase the chances of a soft left successor.
I'm being slightly tongue in cheek in suggesting Labour might fall short of the 32% Corbyn took in 2019, but on the current trajectory it's not totally impossible by any means.
Obviously the Scottish subsample has to be treated with caution, but even if you average the last three YouGov subsamples, there's only a tiny Labour lead. So the SNP do seem to be hanging on in there.
Note that in the GB numbers there is a virtual three-way tie between the Tories, Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats for second place. On those numbers the voting system might work in the Lib Dems' favour, meaning there must be a fair chance Ed Davey will wind up as Leader of the Opposition. Quite what the long-term consequences of that would be is anyone's guess.
The only worse than a Boris Johnson premier would have been a Jeremy Corbyn premier. Good riddance to them both
ReplyDeleteIs it not incredible, though, that after 14 years of Tory austerity, English voters are supporting Tories and Reform (combined total 37%) - one right-wing and one even more right-wing? Both racist and demonising immigration, both very supportive of Brexit. A chasm has surely opened up between the direction of travel in Scotland and England.
ReplyDeleteSorry, 35%, but the point remains!
DeleteReform may be further to the right, but they're also notionally anti-austerity. I don't recall the exact details but their manifesto costings are actually higher than the Greens. Reform wants to spray the money hose in completely different directions, though.
DeleteIf only the SNP and Alba had the brains and the guts to take advantage of England's extremism.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP can and will have nothing to do with Salmond at any cost, he's toxic
DeleteStrange, isn’t it, just low limp the SNP are for standing up for us and seizing the initiative? You could be forgiven to think that maybe just maybe their cosy wee hearts weren’t in it.
DeleteAlba talks the talk but with zero seats they’re going nowhere.
I wonder if the mask slipping and some truly wild swivel eyed right wing lunacy from Farage's Clacton team will dent Reform or will the Gammon's say " They are the team for me"?
ReplyDeleteThe more I see of the Tories, Labour and Reform, the happier I am that my vote for the SNP is already posted. Whether we like it or not we will all have a parliamentary representative and I don't want mine to be one of the Unionist parties.
Well said.
DeleteI’d much rather my representative represented me and abstained from the coloniser’s parliament.
DeleteNo ISP on my ballot, though. Not even Alba. Abstain it is, proudly and very much willing to “take responsibility for what comes.” Less gravy slurping troughers disguising their greed for our nationhood!
Lovely to see someone so intensely relaxed about the Labour unionist gravy slurping troughers who your abstention will help to install.
DeleteYou know my reasoning, James. Many of us are arguing it here regularly in the comments: reward the So Gradualist We’ll All Be Deid SNP with more Robertsons, Guilianos and Wisharts and that thumping Labour government won’t even have a party of independence to worry about. House Jocks are all alike, whatever their rosette. Their allegiance is their bum, on cosy Westminster leather. Scotland can whistle in the field.
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Delete9:36 I agree. A Labour gravy slurper is no worse than a devolutionist gravy slurper from the SNP - they're both unionists.
DeleteVote nothing get Labour
ReplyDeleteVote SNP, get Labour anyway. And a cosy feet Pete for your trouble.
DeleteThere are literally dozens of SNP-Labour battleground seats hanging in the balance and that could be decided by a small number of votes. "Vote SNP, get Labour anyway" is a nonsensical statement.
DeleteWho will bow and kiss Charlie’s hand to become next prime minister? If you’re hoping for anyone but Sir Keir then I have a section 30 to sell you.
DeleteWhat does that even mean?
DeleteOh, you’re interested in my offer? Well, you’ve come at the perfect time for our Summer Savings Spectacular! Indyref2 could be yours for a low, low price of 600 thousand smackers, yes you heard it,, six hundred sizzling secessionist spondoolies. Don’t miss this once in a generation* offer. Act now!
Delete*Generation is defined as whenever there’s an election or we fancy we could use a secret tour bus. No proof of purchase required, nor Section 30. A breathless full front page on the National promising the starting gun is fired will satisfy the terms of this agreement. Stronger for Sturgeon.
Oh, come back when you've sobered up.
DeleteOne of the most enraging aspects of Labour's campaign in Scotland is that they know perfectly well that the resources they expend on trying to oust each SNP MP will end up saving two Tory MPs which could otherwise have been unseated with a diversion of those resources.
DeleteWhatever you vote for in Scotland, you're getting those Tories squatting in charge of the opposition regardless instead of being smashed into single digits and forced to sit behind the DUP.
Because Labour decided that retaking those SNP-held seats were more important than that.
Abstain- the cowards way out. Helps the britnats and at the same time undertakes a symbolic hand washing exercise crying "it wisnae ma fault Its everyone else" The Returning Officer declares spoilt ballots 1 and that is it. The ignominy. Need to put an advert in the DR or Herald to say it was me who spoilt the paper and no one cares. Scotland loses again.
ReplyDeleteNom nom nom. They’re good for the condescension don’t you know? Nom!
ReplyDeleteInteresting points. Andy Beckett was saying some similar things in the Guardian earlier today.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/27/tories-terrified-labour-supermajority-labour-wary
While reading Beckett's article I realised that the forecast large Labour majority isn't because they are popular, rather it's because of two other factors: the deep unpopularity of the Tories and the presence of a viable alternative party for disaffected Tories in the form of Reform. That creates the 20pt gap that allows the FPTP tipping point to do its work. English politics hasn't really had to deal with four viable parties with one clear leader and the other three scoring in the teens.
If Reform collapse after the election or some realignment takes place to split the Tories in some who go off to the Libdems while others join with Reform then Labour may end up as a one term govt.
That’s my thinking too, Jacob. FPTP punishes splits hard indeed, so Farage may well come behind even Plaid in terms of seats. But that massive, “sea change” vote they’re forecast right now could prove to be a self fulfilling promise of political realignment.
DeleteEngland will always be a 2 party democracy. FPTP punishes others to make it so. But if Sir Keir quite rationally fears Farage’s millions more than the Tories (or whichever other random plonker FPTP crowns leader of the opposition for this ugly duckling parliament) then he could well make him so.
Hey, Beeb. Who’s your daddy? The Tories or the moguls? At a time of weakness, England’s whole political destiny is there to be seized.
Don’t worry. I didn’t forget about Scotland.
Delete“And now it’s time for the Tories where you are.”
what about onions or radishes?
ReplyDeleteOnly stale and grotty Indy carrots can help you see…
ReplyDeleteThere's a YOUGOV Scottish poll out and it's not good news for the SNP
ReplyDeleteLabour: 35% (+1)
🟡 SNP: 29% (-1)
🟠 Liberal Democrats: 11% (+3)
🔵 Conservatives: 11% (-2)
⚪ Reform UK: 8% (+1)
🟢 Greens: 5% (-1)
⚫ Others: 4% (+1)
Get it together, Greens. You can’t even beat Reform in the ultimate away fixture? They’re drawing all their votes exclusively from the English, who are a little thinner on the ground here. Surely you can beat them with youth and your unstoppable woo?
DeleteScotland only YouGov poll not such good reading. Amazingly a week out and the polls, Imo, are still unclear in Scotland. Labour look set to win.... but it is a narrow win keeping Indy alive or a thumping one? I really don't know.
ReplyDeleteIndy’s not alive because of Scotland’s diddies in Westminster. (A very small handful are a credit to us, Jo Cherry among them.) It’s the consistent 50% for Yes amongst the Scottish people that keeps Indy living.
DeleteI'm going to file this under....
DeleteBest way to achieve indy is to vote against it.
As long as people in Scotland want independence then it matters nothing about the SNP ups and downs in elections run by the coloniser England.
DeleteThe National reports on a highly regarded SNP councillor and activist in Paisley who is scunnered and has now left the party he has contributed more to than most:
Deletehttps://www.thenational.scot/news/24416942.snp-councillor-quits-saying-independence-just-rhetoric-get-votes/
I quite agree with him. Tokenism, centralisation, and Wheesht For Indy are crippling the SNP from within. More of us are seeing it now for what it is: a party led in bad faith, acting only in its own petty interests.
Anon at 10.24pm the best way to get independence is to vote for it in a referendum. Something the SNP continually promised for 7 years. Stronger for Scotland - aye right.
DeleteWell said, ISP.
DeleteThe best thing the SNP ever did in Westminster was stand up and leave.
Do it again. For good. For Scotland!
Anon 10:28,while it is true that the SNP favour a referendum as the gold standard for gaining independence,you were very selective in your implied source of blame for the fact that thus far we have not had a second referendum.Did you forget that the Supreme Court said that the Scottish Parliament did not have the authority to run a referendum?However since the Supreme Court also said that if a majority of the Scottish people wanted independence,the UK government would find it difficult to resist.Now the SNP manifesto for the coming election ask for a vote for the SNP in order that Scoland can become an independent country.That is one way of demonstrating support for independence.Secondly they have proposed that, if necessary,the next election for the Scottish Parliament should be a defacto referendum.That is another opportunity to demonstrate the will of the Scottish people.Thus,the attacks on the SNP on this site consists of nit picking around the margins,and a lack of a coherant explanation about how we could get a majority that would be recognised internationally.It seems that some people are more intent on harming the SNP (including their hard working activists) rather than helping the SNP to win a majority support for manifesto pledge to make Scotland an independent country.
DeleteBack home again after a few days away and two personally addressed leaflets from fatface Oswald are waiting for me. This SNP MP told me not to worry my little head about the plan for independence many years ago as Nicola and her had it all in hand. The word independence, never mind any talk of a plan for independence, is not mentioned. The nearest is " put Scotland's future in Scotland's hands".
ReplyDeleteThere were two from the Britnat Better Together Labour guy and one from the Tory MSP Gulhane - they went straight in the bin this time.
Aye Oswald and Sturgeon had independence all in hand - how to prevent it is what she obviously meant.
Get over it. Nicola Sturgeon is not standing in your constituency or as a MP. Your fixation is nasty.
DeleteAnon at 12.09am disnae like the truth. "Get over it " - the SNP response to people who want independence.
DeleteI really hope people get behind the SNP when it comes to the crunch.
ReplyDeleteI’m not sure some people are grasping the damage a heavy defeat in this election for the SNP would do to the independence cause.
Anon at 11.14pm didnae worry Declan tells us the SNP will win a majority. It's truly a pity the SNP cannae get behind independence when it comes to the crunch.
DeleteAnon 11:25.I dont agree that the SNP cannot get behind independence.I think that conclusions need to be evidence based and I do wonder why people cannot examine the evidence more carefully.The SNP during the next election are asking voters to vote for them in order to make Scotland an independent country.Of course the UK government will resist.However,what an SNP majority with that agenda can claim is that the will of the Scottish people is sustainable in regards to the will for independence.That outcome would create a favourable climate for using the election for the Scottish parliament as a defacto referendum,which would be very winnable.However,if people who want independence,dont vote,or vot Labour,the momentum towards the defacto referendum in 20260 will be less favourable.I do hope that many current doubters can reflect on that.
DeleteI don’t know about other posters but so don’t think so will be around in 20260 for the de facto referendum you mention. Now that is truly gradualism by Swinney😂😂😂😂😂
DeleteOkay typographic erorr 1:24.I meant 2026.Hopefully you will be around then
DeleteA "Sir" as Prime Minister and a "Sir" as leader of the opposition. Is Queen Victoria back on the throne?
ReplyDelete