The other point people are overlooking is that Forbes may have a killer argument to deploy against Swinney during the hustings, namely that she would be fully committed to the job, whereas he might only want it for a year or two, thus guaranteeing that the party will be plunged back into uncertainty in the very near future. The mood music seems to be that Swinney would just be seeing the SNP through until the 2026 Holyrood election, but if you think about that, what does it actually mean? You can't lead a party during an election campaign while planning to step down immediately afterwards, because opposition parties would say voters are being asked to buy a pig in a poke. Realistically Swinney would have two choices - either commit to the role until at least 2028 (which he probably doesn't want to do), or say he will stand down by the autumn of next year to allow a new leader enough time to prepare for the Holyrood election. The latter would mean he'd be in harness for a maximum of just eighteen months - not much longer than Yousaf managed.
If Forbes hammers home the point that members have a choice between a leader who wants to see it through until independence is achieved, and a caretaker leader who would just prolong the agonies of the current leadership crisis, she might just put enough doubts in the minds of members to help them set aside any sentimental feelings for Swinney.
I agree with a lot of that. And a lot of people will be glad to know that. A lot of people like to know what I think about things. And I think about a lot of things. A lot of the time.
ReplyDeleteThat you do, sonny no name, that you do.
DeleteA vicious attack on myself and all I hold sacred. Foul cad!
DeleteI don't think that there is a lot of sentimental feelings for Swinney amongst the bigger membership.
ReplyDeleteI feel that Kate Forbes would win at the membership vote.
I like Swinney, he's a decent guy, but I want a leader who has got real commitment
That's Kate Forbes ✓
Forbes and the boring one are in talks. Stitch up coming. The supine SNP membership will accept what ever they're given and the whole gutless farce will continue.
ReplyDeleteSwinney with Forbes as his deputy, at least til after the GE would make absolute sense.
DeleteNo it wouldn't, because Forbes is the natural leader and Swinney is the natural deputy. It would at least put an end to factional rule, so in that sense would be an improvement on the last year. But at the end of the day, the SNP would still have an unsuitable leader in a crisis situation.
DeleteYep. Forbes as FM and Swinney as Deputy is something I would actually get behind, and would give me my first glimpse of hope in years that the internecine factional warring can be put to rest.
DeleteI like Kate Forbes and I like John Swinney. I also remember what Winnie Ewing said to me during a trip to Strasbourg many years ago. I was going through one of my what Gordon Wilson called 'doubting Terry moments' when Winnie said, 'Terry, you can bring the Scotsman to Strabourg but you can't bring Strasbourg to the Scotsman'. I've never forgotten those important words and j shall reflect on them when coming to a decision.
DeleteYou need to up your meds.
DeleteThe unionists fear Forbes.
ReplyDeleteYes that is true.
DeleteThe days of unionists fearing anyone in the SNP are long gone.
DeleteThese are good points. I kind of hope the SNP and the movement realise that we're all supposed to be in the same national team and party.
ReplyDeleteI hope it's not brutal and is as friendly as it can be.
Abhainn
Holyrood election, please. Enough of this pitty-patty party bullshit. If this goes on, the public will be more interested in quantum physics than Scottish politics.
ReplyDeleteSo if we went fae an election the noo , it would be late summer or later afore we had a government- 18months later we hae an election . Nae use!
DeleteWell if we had this going on at Westminster you can guarantee the SNP would be demanding a GE, with loud cries of “democratic outrage “ if they didn’t get one.
DeleteAnonymous at 6.05:
DeleteDo you have a point? One that an adult rather than a 15 year old would make? Thank you.
Aye and this is what all politicians do , furthermore Scotland's parliament is fixed term nae like Westminster.
DeleteA bit harsh on 15yr olds.
DeleteAnon at 6:08, the SNP are the biggest hypocrites out. Nobody does it like them.
DeleteI see ALBA voting with the unionists proves you wrong.
DeleteAgree, how many shillings from the uk gov for that.
DeleteAnon at 6:08, the SNP are the biggest hypocrites out. Nobody does it like them.
DeleteAll parties pretend that they're interested in the good of others.
I see Ash Regan, Alba's only MSP voted with the Unionist Parties in the vonc, this afternoon, oh dear.
ReplyDeleteCredit to her.
DeleteTo go with the Brit nats? Did she not know she could abstain? Surely Salmond would have told her to to use her vote? Oh of course he did. side with the unionists. Bad decision.
DeleteTotal tactical howler from Regan.
DeleteI'm a bit shocked that Regan voted with the Unionists. I guess the SNP voters can forget about Alba as a possible replacement for the Greens.
DeleteShe has to show she's willing to vote for and against to gain anything.
DeleteAlso, let's be frank. I've list confidence in thos govt and I'm an SNP supporter.
Anon, I'm a bit shocked, aye that's what I am thinking, the Greens voted with the Gov, they'll still get my list vote.
DeleteWhat Alba needs to gain - and what they've been hopelessly lacking hitherto - is actual votes.
DeleteI don't think Alba voting alongside the Unionists in what ultimately became a performative vote gained them anything. But it's certainly given their opponents a big stick to whack them with, for absolutely no reason at all.
The three nominally independence parties are starting to give more than whiff of the Three Stooges.
Swinney is clearly the "let's continue with continuity with the second choice continuity candidate because the required reset and clearout of Nikla's clique will endanger our careers" stopgap. It won't end well no matter how long or short his tenure.
ReplyDeleteMad as a bucket of frogs British/Irish liar Skier punting the line that Alba are a unionist party.
ReplyDeleteBut your ALBA MSP ( in name only) votes with the unionists.
DeleteI see Ian Funcan Smith is back. Yawn...
Delete“Until independence is achieved”? That ship has sailed for a long time.
ReplyDeleteNo suprise there at all.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.parliament.scot/chamber-and-committees/votes-and-motions/S6M-13005
Alba proving they dont care about Scotland by siding with unionists.
ReplyDeleteSkier has come out for Swinney of course.
ReplyDeleteBoarder has came out for Boris Johnson
DeleteSnow Crawler has came out for Govey obviously
DeleteIf you are a snp member you can vote for whoever stands. If you are an albanist you vote for any britnat party
DeleteSkier is such an arse ... he really is.
Deletemotor sled is supporting ice T
DeleteRipsaw EV2 is supporting himself
DeleteTH!NK Frost hasnt declared yet.
DeleteIf Swinney says he'll take the FM job only to see the GE through and then step down, it saves any embarrassment for the GE results if the SNP lose a lot of seats. Then they elect a new SNP Leader with no loss to her name, errr, I mean, her or his name.
ReplyDeleteCertainly makes sense.
DeleteThe biggest argument against Swinney is that he didn't actually excel in the role last time dropping from 6 to 5 seats in 2001 General Election and losing almost a third of our MSPs in the 2003 Scottish elections .
ReplyDeleteWe will get totally ragdolled at the polls if we appoint Swinney as leader again.
He is viewed as yesterday's man has no presence ,charisma and doesn't come across as a strong confident leader in TV debates
4 hours in and the bbc have filed to report that the motion against the government failed despite having up to date football scores. It seems Cook and co didn’t like the result.
ReplyDelete‘Failed to report”
ReplyDeleteIt looks increasingly like the Salmond plan hasn't been thought through!
ReplyDeleteI think there's people jumping to conclusions, maybe not very wise.
ReplyDeleteYi2 both here and other blogs you ain’t convincing anyone.
DeleteI think you're mistaking me for your long-suffering social worker.
DeleteYou know them?
DeleteTo be fair to Humza he has shown immense dignity and humility in his resignation and the days after. A good man who we will miss more than we realise.
ReplyDeleteThe private school education paid-off: He can say 'I really fucked up' eloquently.
DeleteGrow up. There is absolutely nothing wrong with having been to a private school.
DeleteThe reason the SNP and members are pushing for Swinney. Is because their masters have telt them that's who they are electing. He is part of the plan and Kate isn't.
ReplyDeleteSo it doesn't matter what Kate does in the campaign. The wrong person will get the job. The smears have already started against her. There are some really sinister characters running the SNP.
Even Stephen Noon is pushing for Swinney, a previous Forbes backer. Its fixed I tell you!
James Kelly is a mean girl, and Kate Forbes is Fetch: it's not gonna happen.
ReplyDeleteMaybe Alba are the ones that should be considering a new leader, but of course that would never be allowed in that democratic party would it
ReplyDeletethey've got an Emperor
Anyways, getting back to Swinney, some would argue that for his years of service he deserves a wee shot at FM.
ReplyDeleteIf you need a jobby in the next 8 hours, best do one now.
ReplyDeleteTommy just did! What a fume!
DeleteI wonder if they might be considering a Blair / Brown type of arrangement, where he gets to be fm for a bit with her as deputy leader / finance minister, then he steps aside later. It would tick quite a few boxes...
ReplyDeleteBtw I think Ash Regan has probably killed off Alba with that vote today.
I thought exactly the same. Hopefully this pact would have less of the psychodrama though! Swinney in to unify the party, Kate back in cabinet with the simple task of proving that her private religious views do not dictate her public policy choices.
DeleteIf she can manage that for a year or two then she will kill that easy attack line and be in pole position to take over for the 2026 election. And the SNP will again be the broad church it should be.
I also agree that Ash Regan’s vote could be very damaging to Alba. At a stroke she’s made the Greens look like a much better partner than Alba. An abstention would have passed unnoticed, voting with the unionists to bring down a pro-independence government will not soon be forgotten.
She could prove that far more effectively by becoming FM now and simply not enacting the Handmaid's Tale vision of Scotland that some people seem to have convinced themselves she'll be rolling out.
DeleteThose attacks would quickly lose their teeth when this Christian theocracy fails to manifest itself under her leadership. In much the same way that the smears against Corbyn in 2017 melted away when suddenly the public started to see that he wasn't some crazed Maoist, but a mild-mannered old bloke whose hobbies included manhole covers and making his own jam.
Of course, Corbyn never had the chance to prove that further in power, and the smears resurged and eventually pulled him down. In the absence of power, smears are much more potent.
The same would be true of Forbes returning to Finance. Only with power will the attack lines be proven wrong.
I am all for a unity pact between the two. But send Swinney back to Finance, and let Forbes prove herself in office.
Kate back in cabinet with the simple task of proving that her private religious views do not dictate her public policy choices.
DeleteIf she can manage that for a year or two then she will kill that easy attack line and be in pole position to take over for the 2026 election.
She was in the cabinet for three years before and didn't do any crazy Wee Free stuff as far as I'm aware. If that didn't kill the attack line how would another two years help?
In reply to the last two comments, she had a more limited remit as Finance Secretary. But since the leadership election last year her religious views are very much to the fore whenever she’s mentioned. If she was back in the cabinet, and also deputy FM (and clearly FM in waiting), with a clear hand in policy making, she’d have the chance to put the issue to bed.
DeleteKate presiding over this shit show in power, but not as leader would be worst choice. Continuity would “cut it”, if that’s how she goes forward. She’d be forever tainted, there would be no obvious challenger to the New SNP’s corporatised bleak “progressive”vision of Scotland, and Independence would be dead.
DeleteHi James. Is your name Scot?
ReplyDeleteWhat’s all the Swinney bananas and nutella patter doing the rounds on twitter? No need to explain the euphemism, I get that, but does it have any validity - was this ever taught in any school?
ReplyDeleteApparently it was. There's a video out there of it being raised at some school meeting with parents and a desperate attempt from the platform to silence the critics.
DeleteYes, I watched a bit if that. The guy speaking is of the Family Party. I can’t help think he might be biased or exaggerating. However, stuff like this is definitely happening elsewhere in the “progressive” western world, (albeit probably exaggerated too), & the SNP are captured by their progressive nonsense, & unable to accept criticism.
DeleteHere's the link. About 9 minutes in the banana/Nutella thing is mentioned and panic engulfs the platform!
Deletehttps://youtu.be/ujePAmm5uK4
Anon@8:23 I know the guy is from the Family Party but nobody denies what he says in the material. Don't shoot the messenger just because you don't like his message
DeleteJust watched it. I like the bit where the woman with the flailing arms says it's not appropriate to talk about these things as it could be seen on you tube. They're telling it to primary schoolchildren for goodness sake!
DeleteAnonymousMay 2, 2024 at 8:26 AM
DeleteNo messenger shooting intended, i’m just cautious at taking some claims & accusations at face value.
If setting up Swinney as the fall guy for the WM election is going to give us two years of being even more inundated with moral panic from trads maybe it's not such a good idea after all
DeleteJames - there are far too many anonymous posters here - undermines credibility a tad
ReplyDeleteTad? Fairy word
DeleteJohn Swinney is a longstanding figure in the politics of Scotland and what he says today at his launch will not quickly be forgotten.
ReplyDeleteDouglas Ross's speech yesterday was quite well-delivered and entertaining to be fair.
ReplyDeleteSwinney was not entertained (face like a stone).
DeleteWhoever becomes SNP leader and FM, it appears little is going to change. We still have a minority government, which in all probability, is going to be propped up by the Greens. So again it’ll be the Green tail wagging the SNP dog.
ReplyDeleteLet’s be honest here, is this anyway to run a country? Harvie and Slater being allowed to call the tunes, in return for keeping the SNP in power. Sad state of affairs. What was also sad was to see Alba’s only MSP back the unionist motion of no confidence in the SNP.
It’s difficult to see this government getting through to 2026, though admittedly a better than expected outcome in the GE would help.
Why should anyone have any confidence in the SNP?? Does the word embezzlement ring a bell?
DeleteYou keep trying. Let the judicial system do its course.
DeletePeople worrying about Forbes and her religion but don’t seem to care about all the unacceptable stuff that Swinney was involved in and covered up when he was Sturgeon’s bag carrier. Swinney is only being put up to try and keep a lid on what was going on under Sturgeon.
ReplyDeleteDid John Swinney carry Nicola Sturgeon's bag in the way that Richard Bucket has to carry Hyancinth's when she's chatting to the vicar or Mrs Barker-Finch?
DeleteIt looks like I'll be voting Green on the list at the next HE, why would Ash Reagan vote with the Unionists on a vonc at Holyrood?
ReplyDeleteis there any explanation coming from Alba Central?
She explained it last night (in a very good performance) on Debate Night.
DeleteIt was a fairly weak excuse. Clearly the party is panicked by the misstep. Alba’s resident oaf McEleny has been spraying excuses like fertiliser on Twitter ever since.
DeleteNever a good sign when the general secretary of a party feels the need blue himself to social media in response to a mistake.
Some would say that letting McEleny anywhere near social media is a mistake in itself, right enough.
Bit unfair that the Greens are not getting similar pelters for intending to vote for the Tory VONC, though. The SNP establishment seem to have decided more or less overnight that Humza was a liability
DeleteGoing by the comments everywhere, even among Forbes supporters: Humza isn't an Islamic fundamentalist, so no-one's interested in it. Forbes is an evangelical Christian fundamentalist, so everyone is interested in it. As for the 'religious tolerance' people - they need to get used to the fact that most people, including most Christians, don't like the ethos of evangelical Christaian fundamentalists.
ReplyDeleteThe possibility is that Scotland would be seen as the equivalent of a US banjo State with a leader with social views to the right of Donald Trump - that'll be hillarious.
This is propaganda. Swinney's may not be the best candidate but "not thought through"? come on... he's the one that can easily get a majority and take the heat out of the current mess (at least for now).
ReplyDeleteIt might not be to your liking but it's "thought through."
Take the heat off in the sense that he’s full as dishwater.
DeleteKeep the heat on in the sense that he provides a direct link to the former leadership team currently implicated in allegations of embezzlement.
Dull as dishwater*
DeleteSure and?
DeleteNo more implicated than any other SNP politician. Forbes was the finance sec during a lot of this. Could be argued none of the SNP cabinet looked under the bonnet enough.
Swinney was a member of the senior leadership team and has spent the past year preaching continuity with that leadership. Forbes has staked herself for over a year as the “move on from the previous leadership” candidate.
DeleteThat’s far more appealing, given the scandal in which the previous leadership is embroiled.
It would make sense for Swinney to step up - at least until the General Election. He could then take the flak for the losses - leaving Forbes a free run after the drubbing. If Forbes takes over now - she will be on the line for the SNP collapse later on this year. Seems a bit of a waste.
ReplyDeleteSwinney was up to his neck in the Salmond trial and subsequent enquiry. He was known as Mr. Redactor, having re-dacted entire page after entire page of evidence. His role will surely come out in the trial that's due to start this month, how's that gonna fit with him being FM while testifying and having to tell the truth under oath (a bit ironic for Honest John..)?
ReplyDeleteReally?
DeleteChecked online re this and it seems to me it is made up. It’s for the courts and others to decide what is admissible in a tribunal or court and what is redacted or not. Still keep trying to undermine if it keeps you happy but remember the rules of defamation.
Oh God! Mr 'Underminer' is back! Buy yourself a dictionary pal, there must be other words you can use🤡
DeleteYou buy one. Getting under your skin is it?
Deletehttps://youtu.be/zGx_SdgYF0o?si=OkEhWkmKSMyPqTCG
DeleteIt's a writing style which reveals you as a person with nothing original to say. However, if you're happy to put your limited vocabulary on public display, don't let me 'undermine' you.😁
DeleteI don't warm to either of them massively but Forbes gay stuff is a talking point in my whatsapp groups. Seems to be about the only thing people know about her. That is a problem.
ReplyDeleteMagisterial performance by Swinney - strong launch. His words today will not quickly be forgotten.
ReplyDeleteAgree fully. A united party under Swinney is a force to be reckoned with.
DeleteHighly-regarded journalist, Andrew Kerr, verdict:
Delete"I suspect that Mr Swinney’s praise of his “colleague and friend” (with whom he has had serious disagreements) and potentially a promise of a “big job” will mean that Ms Forbes gets on board."
This is very interesting as Kerr will have based this on no doubt excellent sources.
I see "highly regarded" seems to be your phrase of the day, applicable to loyal British scribblers. Highly original.
DeleteForbes needs no less than Finance Minister role and deputy FM in order to accept Swinney's offer
ReplyDeleteHighly-regarded BBC journalist, Kirsten Campbell, just reported that Swinney's launch was a "masterclass" in how to do a launch.
ReplyDeleteSignificantly, she added that: "it was a performance that could be difficult for Kate Forbes to ignore."
Highly regarded?
DeleteBy James Cook?