I'll try to update this after I've had a chance to look at the details more, but I gather that the SNP's share of the vote in the YouGov MRP poll is very similar to their share of the vote in the Survation MRP poll, which had them on course for over 40 seats. This underscores the point I made the other day about how there's a very narrow band of results in popular vote terms that could see the SNP winning anything between 12 and 45 seats.
YouGov MRP seats projection:
Labour 403
Conservatives 155
Liberal Democrats 49
SNP 19
Plaid Cymru 4
Greens 1
Ross Colquhoun, who as far as I know is still an SNP strategist, reacted to the much more favourable Survation numbers by trotting out the new mantra: "This shows that Labour don't need seats in Scotland to win." As inspiring pitches go, that's right up there with "OK I know you don't fancy me anymore but at least I don't beat you up" or "I know you're sending me to the clink, your honour, but let's keep it down to a few years". It's ultra-defensive and tacitly concedes that Scottish voters want a Labour government, which is a mindset that is going to make it very difficult to persuade people not to vote Labour. What the SNP need to do is give people the choice of independence and convince them that independence is the change we all need, rather than a Labour government that will barely change anything at all.
The SNP could also do with a new leader who doesn't have heavily negative net approval ratings, or failing that they need Humza Yousaf to end factional rule by bringing Kate Forbes and one or two of her key supporters into senior ministerial positions.
That’s a lot of Tory MPs out of a job as well as SNP MPs. The Lib Dems are going to be as irrelevant as ever unfortunately.
ReplyDeleteWhy would it be fortunate for anyone for the Lib Dems to become relevant? The last time they were was the Cameron-Clegg buddy act of 2010, and they won no friends at all. Relevance proved to be deeply harmful to their party, once the voters had their chance to punish them for what they'd done.
DeleteThis would be disappointing but not resignation territory for Humza, because a narrow change in vote share can lead to a large change in seats. Since it is the case that a narrow change in vote share can lead to a large change in seats it follows that widely different numbers of MPs can be the outcome of more-or-less the same vote share, which in turn indicates that the threshold for Humza to resign when measured in MPs (as opposed to vote share) should be set at below the lower end of the range of the two MRPs out in recent days. This is underscored by James' intelligence that the SNP's share of the vote in the YouGov MRP poll is very similar to their share of the vote in the Survation MRP poll.
ReplyDeleteHumza's job is not done until Labour's won back Holyrood.
DeleteI'm not so sure anybody fancies the job, it's a bit of a poisoned chalice these days.
ReplyDeleteAgree. Nicola said that the sacrifices she had to make were considerable. Humza deserves credit for stepping forward and putting aside private interests in order to promote the interests of the country.
DeleteAnon at 8.26am - would these " private interests" be very private interests. Yousaf is promoting the interests of the SNP not Scotland.
DeleteIfS the big picture is that SNP supporters believe that SNP government is better for Scotland than the government of any other political party.
Delete'SNP supporters believe that SNP government is better for Scotland than the government of any other political party'. No shit, Sherlock!. Quite brilliant political analysis there😆.
DeleteIndeed! The trouble being that a lot of former SNP supporters aren't SNP any more. I wonder why? Could it be anything at all to do with the rank incompetence of the Scotgov or, perhaps, the dead-end they've parked the campaign for independence?
DeleteThe most worryingly depressing aspect of it all it that the SNP leadership doesn't really care either way. Part of me wishes the SNP loses all their seats so we can all come to realise having, or not having,
ReplyDeletesupposedly pro independence [careerist] politicians in England's parliament makes no difference to our being ruled over by England and we'd be better off concentrating on electing genuine pro independence politicians to Holyrood, achieving 50%+1 of the votes cast and thereafter declaring UDI and taking the consequences whatever they may be.
After declaring UDI can you talk me through what you do next? PAB has been trotting out the UDI line for several years, but with no actual plan. Is there one?
DeleteUDI only works when you have a majority of the Scottish people voting to do it. When you do, you're on your way. How else do you think so much of the British Empire left it?
DeleteYou have not answered my very simple question. You advocate something you cannot implement. UDI will never happen. Perhaps stop peddling it?
DeleteAnon at 1.51pm when you are a colony the coloniser does not give up its possession easily. It certainly will never happen with the current lot in charge of the SNP. They are happy with their devolution lot.
Delete@1:51
DeleteHere's the map:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ab/List_of_countries_gained_independence_from_the_UK_Flag_version_3.svg
Now you tell me how each one of those countries broke free from Westminster rule? Hint: it wasn't a bloody war of independence for all of them. Not even most. Their people voted for independence parties and they carried out their people's wishes. A declaration of independence is part of that process, every time.
The death of the British Empire is the proof that it works.
The SNP has, long ago, become just another jelly blob of suits and salaries. The spirit of 2014 was maimed, in the party, by Sturgeon and died when the activists voted with their feet. SPP -
ReplyDeleteThe Scottish Parnell Party would be a more appropriate name.
Not a new opinion but many still seem to be unable to see it.
More like the Stonewall National Party when you see what they prioritise over independence. Sturgeon has a lot to answer for.
DeleteYet between May 2020 to February 2021, the SNP under Nicola Sturgeon had raised support for Scottish independence in 20 consecutive major opinion polls, the most sustained support for it in modern Scottish history.
DeleteAlba has simply proved that it's easier to undermine your enemies than to build support for your own political party and, though it continues to stagger along with the support of only around 2% support, the hatred and division its members have sown has damaged the whole independence movement and pushed any prospect of independence further into the distance.
It's incredible the damage that Alba has done when everybody hates Alex Salmond and the party has no support at the polls. Oh, wait a minute - that makes no sense at all does it?
Delete😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
DeleteAnon at 10.39pm - so there was a consistent majority for independence - but the SNP do nothing
Deleteabout independence - yet according to a numpty like you it is Alba's fault Scotland is not independent. As anon at 10.52pm says your post makes no sense other than to demonstrate your blind loyalty to Sturgeon and hatred for Alba a party only created because the SNP are phonies. Oh and don't give us the Covid excuse either - plenty of countries held referendums and elections during the pandemic. In fact Scotland held an election during the pandemic.
Remember the SNP could hold a Holyrood election but couldnae send out a census form or hold a referendum.
Your post marks you out anon as a cowardly WGD numpty.
Anon@10:52 It never ceases to amaze me how so many SNPers insist that Alba is both an irrelevance and simultaneously a mortal danger to the SNP.
DeleteI suppose holding two opposite views at the same time is second nature in a party that believes men are women and women are men.
And a party that believes that British rule is the only way to secure Scottish independence.
DeleteI feel Yousaf needs to be given til at least after the GE. There seems little enthusiasm for a change of leader at this stage, and let’s face it, the guy hasn’t done a lot wrong.
ReplyDeleteObviously should the SNP lose 20+ seats then the leadership issue will need to be looked at.
1. He cancelled the de facto referendum.
Delete2. He said he would ask for a sec 30 again and moan about Westminster being democracy deniers. Of course they are democracy deniers it's a colonial relationship. If you are a colony you only get whatever amount of democracy you are allowed by the colonisers. It's bloody embarrasssing to go cap in hand again to Westminster to be told to pissof.
There you go Jeff two things he has done wrong. Now you may not think they are important but I suggest independence suporters will disagree with you.
Jeff I agree.i don't think Humza has done anything wrong. He had big shoes to fil. It is difficult to follow a major leader. I think going down to 19 would be a bad night but not so bad to be resignation territory becausd we have to remember that FP TP can throw up big seat changes even when underlying support is not very different.
DeleteAnon at 7.50am - clearly you do not want independence.
DeleteAnon at 7.50. Do you really believe going down to 19 MPs is not a resignation matter? Are you actually an Indy supporter of a Unionist troll? Going down to 19 MP’s creates the very real risk of devolution being reversed. At the very least is gives the Unionists in Westminster a basis for diluting the powers of Holyrood even further.
DeleteAnon at 10.05 the thing that we all must keep in mind when interpreting and analysing election results under FPTP is that large changes in seats can result from small changes in support. That's why I think what you say is flawed analysis.
DeleteIt's not flawed at all. Going from 48 to 19 MPs would make the SNP even easier to ignore at Westminster than they already are.
DeleteThe SNP could win every seat in Scotland: they would still be ignored. 2015 proved it nicely. There is no magic threshold where democracy suddenly kicks in and the Brits start treating us like adults.
DeleteHowever, it's also true that a party losing seats is a party that's inviting ridicule. Labour will be so high on their 1997-like success that they'll hoot with laughter any time a nationalist opens their gob. Similarly, the media will be giddy in delight that the Jocks are back in their box.
Not that they listened in 2015, either.
FFS - anon is now agreeing with himself not once but twice.
ReplyDeleteThe biggest blow was Alex S's resignation in 2014. Where would we be now if he had stayed on?
ReplyDeleteIndependent.
DeleteSalmond wouldn't have been as popular as Nicola.
DeleteThe leader of the SNP should have one overriding objective - independence. Not doing selfies with nicophants.
DeleteAs WT said on the previous article " I prefer politicians that deliver." He also said that a lot of nasty politicians were popular and Sturgeon fits that bill no problem.
DeleteSturgeon's reign is characterised by overpromising and underdelivering. Yousaf's first year is characterised by underpromising and underdelivering.
Few political people could fill an arena with a capacity of 15000. You can't take that away from her.
DeleteHer achievements in the poverty space are considerable.
Delete"Her achievements in the poverty space are considerable."
DeleteYes a lot more people are in poverty because of her lack of action on independence and her inability to achieve any sort of deal for Scotland after Brexit (and it's economic carnage) to reflect our large remain majority. It's a considerable achievement all right, not a good one, but considerable none the less.
She did a lot in the LGBTQ+ space.
DeleteAnon at 9.46am - stop spreading these salacious rumours unless of course you have any evidence to back it up.
DeleteObviously, I meant in the policy space.
DeleteNot all that obvious given the company she keeps.
DeleteAnon at 10.02am try making a bigger effort to communicate better. You clearly didn't learn much from your idol Sturgeon the great communicator. " Policy space" " poverty space "- you been reading management self help books. Space is where people boldly go - ala Captain James Kirk.
DeleteI thought he was referring to the LGBTQ space at 9:46! Personally I think the party is lost in space.
DeleteDon't forget Scotty!
DeleteOr Humza as he tries to klingon.
DeleteActually, he could learn a lot from a Klingon for improving his debating style.
DeleteLesson one: MORE PASSION
Lesson two: NO ENEMY SURVIVES A KLINGON
Anon at 8.57am - keeps posting about the 15k who turned up to hear Sturgeon speak at the Hydro, Glasgow. It is a fact anon so nobody can take that away from Sturgeon. At that point in time Sturgeon had massive support from the yes movement, SNP membership was going through the roof, she had 56 MPs in Westminster and she was FM. What did she do about Scottish independence - ZERO.
DeleteYou know when we need her like again?
DeleteAfter independence, so the wasted years of all-talk nae-troosers are during a status quo that's worth living in!
Yousaf is settling into his role as the Green's poodle, and is showing a sureness-of-touch as he consigns an increasing number of SNP MPs to the wheely bin of history. His target, which should be achieved, is to reduce the Westminster contingent to 6 or less.
ReplyDeleteSome would say he should look to see if campaigning solely on the basis of a de facto referendum for Independence would achieve the ultimate target - no SNP or other Scottish MPs at Westminster at all. But there are those in the SNP who say that constituents deserve to have representation there. Well said! Even if it's not SNP MPs.
Yousaf is our man in Holyrood, please be nice to him.
ReplyDeleteThere is a lack of appreciation for how good he is on here in my opinion. He wasn't even given a chance. Yet he has performed well up to expectations.
DeleteZuleika the Cat
DeleteI agree with the Cat.
DeleteI also agree that Humza has lived up to my expectations very well indeed. If I were an SNP member, I would have voted for him 3rd on the 3 choice ballot, as clearly the continuity and down the drain hole candidate.
He is certainly growing in confidence and sureness of touch.😉
DeleteIf only he were as handy at politics as he is his side interests, he might actually begin to help us…
DeleteAlthough seat share is technically what matters, I’m more interested in vote share because that will sum up the mood.
ReplyDeleteWould you rather your party win the popular vote in Scotland or the seat count?
Seats are more important as it means that more pay and resources come to the SNP.
DeleteI think it’s entirely possible Labour will get 34% and 27 seats but SNP will get 36% and 24 seats. Who will have ‘won’ or would that be more of a draw?
DeleteAnon at 8:32, I agree with you, vote share at the GE will be important. This is where I don’t understand pro Indy voters who say they’re going to abstain because they’re fed up with the SNP.
DeleteThe only thing it will do is give ammunition to the unionists.
Jeff - your lack of understanding is quite remarkable considering all the posts you presumably have read on SGP. The SNP are happy with devolution. The SNP are unionists. Understand now.
DeleteJeff 9.10: good point.
DeleteIFS, with respect, to say the SNP are unionists is a bit ridiculous. I doubt anyone will agree with you on that.
DeleteI do if you count devolutionists as unionists which the SNP are.
DeleteThe SNP includes independence as one of its policies.
DeleteDoes it? They seem to have forgotten about it for the last decade.
DeleteIndependence is ONE of its policies? There's the whole problem in a nutshell. It should be their main policy if not their only policy until it has been achieved.
DeleteAnon: 10.53 an impracticable approach when you keep in mind that the SNP is Scotland's party of government.
DeleteJeff - please see anon at 10.06am. It only took 11 mins for someone to prove you wrong. At least you seem to understand our position now. If you had said most SNP voters like you wouldn't agree with me then fine but to say you doubt anyone will agree with me is, with respect, Jeff ridiculous.
DeleteThe SNP treats independence in the same way it treated the national energy company Sturgeon promised to deliver way back in 2017. Both have been ditched by the SNP. Actual physical achievements are beyond Sturgeon's gangs abilities - social engineering is their game.
Anon at 10.53am I agree. Pity others like Jeff get distracted on to all the other party political stuff.
And up pops the SNP devolutionalists handy excuse at anon 11.01am.
DeleteAnon 11:01, Nonsense. If the SNP doesn't have independence as its main goal, what's the point of it? The LGBT advocates on here are very happy to see independence put on the back burner as long as their agenda is to the fore. It's all a question of priorities and independence doesn't even register in today's SNP.
DeleteI’m with IfS on this one, too. I have voted SNP ever since I was 18, right through to 2019 and 2021. (I voted Green on the Holyrood list from 1999 until last time when I went for Alba.) They have lost my reliable, base nationalist vote until they get their act together on independence.
DeleteIf there is no other pro-indy choice available in my seat, I will abstain with a completely clear conscience. It's my vote. Their inaction is their choice.
Me too and nothing James, Jeff or anyone else says will change my mind. The present SNP is not an independence party and your vote is wasted on them. Let them sit on the sidelines for all the good they have done.
DeleteAye. Personally, I'd consider my vote to be worse than wasted if I cast it for the SNP this time. I would be rewarding their cynical treatment of the entire independence cause. I would be strengthening the leadership faction that is blocking the rest of us from getting on with our struggle. And I would be patting the Westminster team on the back for troughs well guzzled. "Keep at it, chaps!"
DeleteNo, a wasted vote is much less harmful than that.
Couldn't agree more. No more rewarding the fat troughers in Westminster who treat the voters like gullible fools. A pox on them!!!😄😄😄😄😄
DeleteFive smileys? I smell a KC.
DeleteI won't be cheering their defeat, quite like you will. Labour's not my jam, either. But I do look forward to the day the SNP gets its act together and uses Starmer's coming unpopularity as the fuel for a new push to end the union.
It's sad that people like KC wish to live their lives as a House Jock but thats colonialism for you. In all colonies there is always a section of the population who wish to serve their colonial masters.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteKC's a fake. His English is just too English. I think he's a planter.
DeleteAnon 8.58 in terms of resources and money Labour would have won. Remember a seat bring salary and research staff.
ReplyDelete" It seems Yes is now the settled will. " The words of WGD numpty Irish Skier. So if it is the settled will of the people of Scotland what's the current SNP excuse for doing nothing about it then Skier? SNP/WGD idiots everywhere.
ReplyDeleteAre you allowed to post there IfS?
DeleteHe would be regarded as a blasphemer and chased off with pitchforks and flaming torches by the cult. That's why so many pursue him here anonymously.
DeleteAnon at 10.03am - I wouldn't even get to the btl numpties on WGD as Mr Kavanagh wouldn't/doesn't allow me to get past first base as he would not like me posting what I know about him.
DeleteI know. I've also been kicked out of the kennel for daring to suggest that Nicola was less than perfect.
DeleteThey're a nervous group over there in the kennel. Once, I showed up and made a perfectly neutral post about how "proven beyond a doubt" works in a court trial, as I'd recently done jury service at the High Court. Don't think I mentioned Nicola or Salmond in my post as it wasn't about that trial. You can just imagine the barking that kicked off! Apparently I was an Alba troll there for some trouble-making about the dear leader (this was back on Nicola's watch). I swear I even took care not to do any such thing, as I know where their loyalties lie. I wanted to clarify a fundamental legal point about what "proven beyond a doubt" means in practice.
DeleteTalk about triggered… It's ALL ALBA ALL THE TIME. No wonder Alba's too wee, too hated, and too powerful.
'Too wee, too hated, too powerful'. The SNP answer to the Alba problem.😂
DeleteAlso: "Too wee, too toxic, too dangerous."
DeleteWhat they won't tell you: "Too much of a reminder that we're meant to be pursuing independence."
As far as I can make out Forbes has an approval rating of -8, and Yousaf is rated -10.
ReplyDeleteJust to point out that this places Kate two points ahead of Humza. This suggests that changing from Humza to Kate if there is a serious issue pursuant from Humza's handling of the general election is a viable option. However so far Humza has performed well. Nevertheless it is good to have Kate in reserve as the obvious replacement.
DeleteShe's on -8 before she's been interviewed about creationism, and whether it should be part of the school cirruculum, or about sex outside marriage being a sin that will send you to Hell when the majority of children are born outside of wedlock nowadays. The majority of people would regard her as a far-out wierdo. Thankfully for her, she currently doesn't get much probing publicity, and she's still unpopular.
DeleteDo you think Kate Forbes would represent a set back for the LGBTQ+ agenda which the SNP have been very successful in moving forward?
DeleteI would love to see Humza questioned on what the Koran has to say about those subjects. Fortunately for you the media steadfastly avoid anything that might be perceived as 'Islamophobic'.
DeleteUnfair, indeed. But it's the political reality she must face. It would help her to be more agile at deflecting any nuisance questions on her views on Scripture. Blair had it right on that one: "we don't do God." That's not to be confused at all for actually forgetting about your religion, privately.
DeleteAs far as I can make out the SNP supporters who criticise Forbes for her religious views but not Yousaf for his religion are operating double standards. Do both of them pray to their God and ask for forgiveness on a regular basis for not following their teachings? Possibly, possibly not - do I really care - no. I have wondered why is there not a Christianphobic term though.
DeletePersonally, neither of them want Scottish independence so I don't support either of them.
Anon 11:36, the problem is she can't avoid the questions because it's what the media always focus on whereas Humza and Islam, which is a medieval belief system too, are give a free pass in the name of cultural diversity.
DeleteKate is well up for hostile questions. It's actually part of being a Christian to be persecuted and tested.
DeletePersecution isn't a great way to win elections, though. Well, not when you're the one who's at the sharp end!
DeleteWhere is the -8 coming from? Is it a figure plucked out of thin air?
DeleteI think the -8 must come from the opinion poll otherwise it would have not made sense for the poster to have posted it in the way they did on this thread.
DeleteDon't be ridiculous. YouGov aren't going to ask about Kate Forbes' approval ratings in a Britain-wide MRP poll.
DeleteAye right! Pics or it didn't happen.
DeleteCertain posters are always quick to ridicule Kate for her beliefs whenever she's mentioned. As I say, would that Humza was subjected to the same level of scrutiny. Instead he is lauded for holding Islamic prayers in Bute House.
DeleteI wonder if a little well-publicised prayer session in a Mosque with her fellow devout believers in the Abrahamic god would work wonders for Kate's presentational problem?
DeleteYou cannae say that about her. She's a Muslim!*
*No, she's really not, and she never said she was. But you're just thick, media, so anything goes!
If Yousaf went to a mosque that preached the evangelical bit of Islamic Jihad we would all know about it. He looks about as religiously radical as the Church of Scotland, although he may, or may not bang his head against the floor five times a day and say umrah, but I doubt he bothers. What I am saying is that Forbes would be a liability as a political leader. I don't think there is any question about that. Religious tolerance for the Tartan Taliban? That's unrealistic, and as a member of an evangelical church it is her duty to tell everyone about her church's beliefs => she would.
DeleteYou're making a lot of assumptions there. Humza was quick enough to disappear when gay marriage was passed and I'd love to hear him tell his local mosque to let transwomen in with the other women.
DeleteYou don't want to believe he's a radical because it suits you to see him that way but you don't really know. I find the way he embraces his religion as and when it serves his purpose quite hypocritical.
Strange that people regard a political leader as 'good' when after just a year the government he's in charge of preside over disasterous NHS performance, higher taxes, a flawed recycling act dropped, a flawed GRA act dropped, a flawed fisheries act dropped, higher poverty, poorer education results, closed librarys, closed swimming pools etc.
ReplyDeleteHumza's first year gets a 2/10 rating from me. Gaza gave him an extra point. The other one's for being less obviously corrupt than the previous duo.
DeleteAnon at 11.33am - Yousaf is part of Sturgeon's gang - her protege (boy). " Obviously" being the pertinent word in your post. So I would give him 1.5 out of 10😀.
DeleteEncouraging to see recognition of Humza's leadership of Gaza from anon at 11.33. Well said.
DeleteAnon at 11.05. Not clever enough to be a bot. Just another unionist ars(h)ole. Back you go to the mouth frothers at the express.
DeleteAnon at 12.33pm says " Humza's leadership of Gaza " - what leadership - he stated what any decent person should think, namely a genocide is unacceptable. It's about time he thought about leading Scotland to indelendence.
DeleteBeing against genocide is a very, very low bar. If I can rightly remember, people regard his government as incompetant rather than anything else.
DeleteI see Humza Yousaf as the useful idiot, the patsy who was ushered in to take over during troubled times and to carry the can for all the crap created by his predecessor. I think the actual continuity candidate was supposed to be Angus Robertson, but I suspect he was warned off by Nicola Sturgeon, given all the shit that was heading down the pipeline. Family reasons is generally a bullshit excuse for standing down in any contest or job. It will be interesting to see if he stands in a future leadership contest to pick up the pieces once everything has blown over.
ReplyDeleteI personally think Humza comes across as a decent and well meaning human being, but unfortunately, also a pretty crap politician and leader.
Encouraging to see the positive comments about Humza towards the end of the post.
DeleteRobertson was intended to be the heir but there are skeletons in the family closet which I won't abuse James' blog by discussing which put a stop to it. The story may yet come out in court.
DeleteOwen - these so-called skeletons are merely allegations.
DeleteI agree Humza Yousaf is a decent guy, who is obviously doing his best. I think some of the criticism is a bit over the top to be honest.
DeleteLet’s face it, he wasn’t dealt a very good hand when he took over after Sturgeon’s resignation.
Would either of the other two leadership candidates be doing any better in the current circumstances? I’m not convinced.
Anon, I know that. Remember, Alex Salmond ended up in court over allegations.
Delete> Would either of the other two leadership candidates be doing any better in the current circumstances? I’m not convinced.
DeleteI hear you. I'd be more inclined to actually vote for the party if it was still serious about independence, though, so it would make some difference in nationalist turnout. Under Humza, with indy resolutely off the table entirely, that's going to hurt the party quite a lot.
The real problem is that Humza is indeed the Continuity Candidate, and his party membership (narrowly) picked him to do just that. Nicola's departure was the time to change direction. They chose not to. Big Mistake.
I disagree with James on this, but I still reckon it's too late to change leader again now. The election will be bad, bad news for the party and its leader. If anyone else took over now, they would be the one to take the hit, and they'd have to resign after a bad showing they honestly can't avoid.
I understand that James thinks it's madness to take an electoral kicking you know is coming your direction. My thought is that it's wasteful to ruin a new leader by burying them in a bad election result, even if it is marginally better than it could have been with Humza. Yes, there's a wide range of different seat outcomes on the cards, and so the difference could be quite dramatic. But would anyone notice under the weight of a Labour landslide? We don't get two runs at the election to compare between, experimentally. It must always be purely hypothetical.
I just don't think a hypothetical "well, it could have been worse under the last guy" will be enough to save a new leader from pressure to quit the day after the election.
Forgot to mention: this is a Westminster election, where SNP MPs are powerless. I'd feel much more strongly about "anything between 12 and 45" MSPs than I do MPs. Numbers in Holyrood make and break the Scottish government. In Westminster, the SNP will never, ever be in government. That makes all the difference.
DeleteLose 20, 30 or even 40 seats and there will be pressure. Whoever you are, at the helm.
DeleteGranted -- if he loses 40.
DeleteIf he loses half of them—that's "just" 24—it's a catastrophe.
DeleteIf he loses 24 that is disappointing but not within resignation territory IMHO.
DeleteIf the Tories lose half their MPs, do you think Sunak shouldn't resign because that's acceptable? Or how about whoever's in charge of the Lib Dems now losing half of theirs?
DeleteEvisceration is a resigning offence.
I am using the fact that quite large changes in MPs can result from small changes in vote share in the FPTP system when making these assessments. I would not be surprised if Liberal leaders in times past have lost similar fractions but remined in post.
DeleteAnon4:13 Get your head out of the sand (or is it Humza's rear end) and look around. More and more people are seeing the SNP for the sham that they are.
DeleteWGD numpty Capella says " There is no democracy in Scotland." Exactly what I've been telling the numpties for years. But they thought Sturgeon would deliver a referendum and all would be well. People prefer to live in a dream world. Some people are just slow on the uptake. Next stage for the numpties is to ask themselves why are the supposed independence leaders not shouting this from the rooftops all the time. And I mean all of them. What do we get from Yousaf - the standard Sturgeon/Blackford wee moan about democracy deniers but then says he will ask for a sec30. You don't need to be Sherlock Holmes to see that Yousaf will be told to pissof just like Sturgeon and he knows that will be the case.
ReplyDeleteI recall Humza (quite cynically) officially asked for a section 30 on his first day in office, last year, and was either refused or the colonial master just hasn't bothered to reply yet.
DeleteAsking for a section 30 really is that powerless. It's something you toss off, barely even noticed now.
Here we go:
Deletehttps://www.thenational.scot/news/23477981.humza-yousaf-meets-rishi-sunak-first-time-fm-london/
He delivered it to Sunak face to face. Obviously, Sunak just said "No." Can't even find a report!
End of story. FEEL THE POWER SCOTLAND!
_Instant refusal_ took 48 MPs. Anyone who tries to tell me we'll get one off the back of my vote for another batch is a proper numpty.
DeleteSection 30 is pining for the fjords. When that's your plan, you my friend are a unionist.
Let’s face it, It’ll be impossible for Yousaf to ask for a section 30 if the SNP lose a lot of seats, and presumably the pro Indy share of the vote is well below 50%. Starmer will just laugh in his face if he does.
DeleteAs I said in the posts immediately above yours: he already did in 2023.
DeleteSECTION 30 DOESNAE WORK TELL THE PEOPLE!
Incredible. What do these people not understand. Sturgeon got told to pissof by Theresa May when the SNP had 56 out of 59 seats.
Delete5 SNP MPs 25 SNP MPs 45 SNP MPs 55 SNP MPs out of 57 in Scotland it disnae matter Yousaf will be told to pissof with his sec 30 request - laughing in his face will be an optional extra.
The only question remaining is will Yousaf be told to pissof more times than Sturgeon.
Scotland is a colony that's what happens in colonies. No right to self determination until the colonisers are told to pissof.
Remember all these years Blowhard Blackford and Stasi Sturgeon kept saying the Britnats in Westminster cannae keep refusing Scotland's democratic votes. Well guess what, they did, and some of us said at the time Sturgeon and Blackford were feeding the SNP numpties a regular dish of carrots with a nice bullshit sauce and we were rewarded with cries of Unionist. I said years ago on SGP it is the numpties keeping Sturgeon's gang in power that is preventing independence not the Britnats and they proved last year by electing Yousaf that not enough has changed. Only 11% voted for Regan - the only candidate that actually wanted independence. No wonder she left the SNP.
DeleteIn sincerity IfS I think you have the SNP wrong. SNP activists are hard working and dedicated to promoting SNP goals.
DeleteOften, at weekends and in valuable time they give up from private life, they go out to campaign.
Often they have campaigning events targeted on the independence space.
Last summer for example Humza launched the summer of independence tour at an event in Dundee on 22 July which was followed by other events across Scotland aimed at bringing energy to the conversation around independence.
I've never met an SNP campaigner or had one at my door in my life and I'm 66 years old.
DeleteHi anon 8.54: shoot SNP a message and I'm super confident they would love to pay a visit.
DeleteSo I take it that means ALBA will have no ( unelected) MP’s left, a 3rd rate MSP and x councillors all elected one time as loyal SNP supporters. How many of them will ask to be taken back come next local elections? Asking for a friend.
ReplyDeleteH
Aye H another tragedy. Who is your friend - KC?
DeleteAye, it's that Rowland wumman.😉
DeleteJK lives (in a great big hoose) in my constituency. If she ran for election here, I'd vote for her. I mean, she'd be no worse than Christine Jardine!
DeleteI take you agree- ALBA nae seats. The 2% have been let down. George Galloway must be the new leader!!
DeleteH
Nae seats? But yesterday you were telling us they were so dangerous they would split the independence vote and cost the SNP seats! Just how precarious is the SNP vote when a few dozen malcontents can make such a difference?
DeleteI wouldn't argue with this guy. He's a big fan of the hate speech law and he'll have you up in court for saying hurty words. Best leave him alone with his new dictionary.
DeleteBoth of Alba's vote thieves are set to lose their seats and the SNP will still win the vast majority of seats
ReplyDeleteLabour will be second but by some distance as these polls are not Scottish based but UK based without weighting
In other words deliberately designed to influence voters and not inform them
Folk aren't as daft as Labour Tory and Alba hope they are
But they are as daft as the SNP think they are.
DeletePeople can be greatly misinformed. That's the media's job, after all. It's the wrong kind of oil. No one needs oil any more anyway. Etc.etc.
Delete>Both of Alba's [MPs] are set to lose their seats
Fixed that for you.
[and the SNP will still win the vast majority of seats]
Naw they winnae.
Hey Dr Jim at 5.24pm too scared to post your bilge as Dr Jim. I hope you have stopped assaulting women in your old age and learned some manners. Hanvey was elected as an independent but accuracy and truth have never been your strong points Jimbo. Care to explain why the love of your life Sturgeon, her lying husband and the patsy Beattie were not suspended from the SNP despite all three being arrested and interviewed regarding financial fraud for eight hours but Hanvey got the boot due to a cartoon picture - the real reason was that Hanvey actually wanted independence unlike Sturgeon's gang. Jimbo loves the polls when the SNP is riding high but when the SNP is dropping they are fixed by the Britnats.
DeletePS that was an unusual post for you Jimbo - no derogatory mention of Salmond - aye you are slipping.
Anon 5.24 good post - agree fully.
DeleteDr Jim at 7.51pm agreeing with yourself is pretty sad. Can you not get that other SNP propagandist Skier to pop over and say how great your post is. Or is Skier on holiday touring some toilets somewhere in France?
DeleteNae IS here, You are really a depressing person. No sunlight in your heart 🌞
DeleteAnon at 8.23pm - really sorry to hear you are depressed. My advice go for a long long walk.
DeleteZzzzz
DeleteAnon if you are now awake please note my posts are not there to give you mental support but again I suggest you go for a very very long walk. If you still don't feel better phone your local doctor.
DeleteApologies for being off topic, I see Glen Sannox is in dry dock in Greenock, so presumably the Glen Rosa launch is going ahead on Tuesday. Wonder will Yousaf will be launching her, as Sturgeon launched Glen Sannox back in 2017?
ReplyDeleteIn any case, I presume it’ll be a lower key event.
Your reminder that a launch does not mean the vessel is finished, it is merely a milestone in the journey towards completion. As such a vessel can spend much time being worked on after a launch.
DeleteAye, so far the Glen Sannox has spent 6 years 4 months and counting, being worked on since launch.
DeleteAnon at 7.39pm - as you seem to have some knowledge in these matters is the 6 years and 4 months a world record or has some other ship been longer?
DeleteIf it sinks when the first minister hits it with the champagne bottle… does that still count?
DeleteAnon at 7.39pm - will Yousaf claim a world beating achievement?
DeleteAll them ones that criticise the ones like Anas Sarwar better think on. I bet he never sent a plastic doll with the hair shaved off through the post to other Labor folks like Joanne LaMont or Dame Jackie Bailey . I think that says a lot.
DeleteHopefully Salmond using his legal case will muck oot the byre.
ReplyDelete2015
ReplyDeleteNicola actually said during election campaign vote wasn’t about independence
putting a kabosh on a great result
A vote for Sturgeon was never a vote for independence. That was the problem with her leadership and it's the problem with the party Humza inherited.
DeletePutting aside whether Yousaf is the best leader or not (spoiler:he's probably not) there is objectively no pressure on him being applied to leave the post is there? I mean it just isn't there in any meaningful way that I can see?
ReplyDeleteIt's like people think he's either the best we've got or don't think changing leader at this point is best in the long run. I genuinely don't know what I think, I think hes trying his best in a tricky situation, probably isn't really cut for the job but a new leader would be in a similarly tricky situation.
Anyway, there is no pressure being piled on him which is the heading of this post, there is more pressure on sunak to leave and that's scant too.
Well argued post. I have been making this point also.
DeleteJust a few months to go until the drubbing we all know is coming. Then the pressure is on.
DeleteIf he doesn’t leave soon after the Westminster thrashing, the stink of failure will follow the SNP through to the Holyrood election, which he will lose and the next Scotgov will be Labour.
That’s what a real setback for the independence cause looks like, folks. Unionists in Bute House, kissing Starmer’s ring.
There’s little point changing SNP leader at this point, and as other posters have pointed out, there’s little enthusiasm within the SNP anyway. The time will be immediately after the GE, if the result is bad, as many are predicting including some polls.
DeleteThe big danger of course is, and I feel this may pan out, the GE only turns out moderately bad and Yousaf hangs on, and the party just carry on as they are with little increased focus on independence.
I think it’s clear something has to change within the next two years, before the Holyrood election, because as a poster above points out, losing that to Labour would be disastrous.
We can live with a GE thrashing, as painful as it undoubtedly will be, but losing the next Holyrood election is a different matter altogether.
Jeff I think it is important to cut Humza a degree of slack if there is a somewhat disappointing GE. After all under FPTP the number of seats can fall a lot even if the vote share does not fall much. And it is unrealistic to expect any leader to repeat the number of seats that were garnered in 2019.
DeleteMoreover there is the risk of Alba splitting the vote this time in the 20+ seats they will stand in.
DeleteI think a problem we have is independence and union are virtually evenly supported in our country, it's not like either has a clear, moral majority to claim. In the one sense, you could say well that means we need to settle it. On another, you could say there is no clear push to change the status quo 10 years since making the decision previously.
DeleteIf we'd been allowed to have a vote there is a chance, with a campaign, we'd have won but enough of us aren't bothered enough by the dismissal to greatly change the overall opinion narrative. Even after being told to go back in our box, following a razor sized victory for pro-independence parties in 2021, we're still sitting at 50/50 or latterly slightly below.
It has to be said Sturgeon pushed the Supreme Court strategy and then walked away. I'm an admirer of her but she's left a 300 year old cause in a poor state by doing so. If she wasn't prepared, or at least create a strong successor team to take forward, a defacto vote after the Supreme Court, she should never have gone down that route.
They sent people up the hill and then walked them down again. It should never have been done if they weren't prepared to take it forward.
Moreover there will be vote splitting from a few MPs who stood last time under the SNP banner but are now no longer in the party for one reason or another.
DeleteI think one of the reasons there's so little enthusiasm for change is that nobody else really wants the job with the party in the doldrums as it is at present. A second reason is the dearth of talent in Holyrood to replace him anyway. In case you think that's just me having a pop at the SNP, that applies across the board - all the parties are full of third raters, none more so than the Greens with people like Harvie, Slater and Chapman. I would say at least half of the 129 grifters at Holyrood could be gone tomorrow and we wouldn't notice the difference.
DeleteFelix you are being too harsh on both the Greens and the SNP. They in this government have been at the forefront of the LGBTQ+ and anti-racism work that has really moved the needle for LGBTQ+ and minority rights in recent years. That did not come without leadership.
DeleteOnce again at 10:40 we have the 'awful' spectre of Alba blamed for splitting the vote. This IS the same party that everyone hates and nobody will vote for isn't it? It's just hard to be sure at times.
DeleteAnon@10:58, I'm looking to move the needle on independence. Your obsession with LGBT issues tells me that you have little, if any, interest in independence for Scotland.
DeleteThere are a lot more SNP apologists, SNP propagandists and down right Alba haters on SGP these days. It has served a purpose though and that purpose is to illustrate the paucity of their arguments. Some posters just repeat the same pathetic stuff.
DeleteAnon at 10.58am - people vote SNP for independence not to move your imaginary needle or to to see the LBGT.... space being worked on as you would put it.
Anon at 10.40am - where did you get the 40 seats figure from in your post? All I have ever heard or read is Alba contesting 12 seats. You wouldn't be telling pork pies to enhance your pathetic Alba vote splitting theory. Funny how people who punt this accusation against Alba are never concerned about the Greens splitting the vote. Are you Patrick Harvie? Same for the second anon at 10.41am.
Jeff says "we can live with a GE thrashing " - it seems to me there are a lot commenting on here who are happy to live with Westminster ruling our lives.
The first anon at 10.41am - says " Sturgeon pushed the Supreme Court strategy" funny how she promised Indyref2 for years, declares in Jan 2020 she will not hold an illegal referendum, then in 2021 pushes indyref2 and then finally goes out of her way to get it declared illegal by a court in London. All the time for years previously arguing against Martin Keatings in court getting a decision if it would be legal. This was a strategy to keep getting the votes and money rolling in and then getting the excuse she couldnae deliver because it was illegal. A Britnat strategy for stopping independence. Incredibly people still support Sturgeon who say they are for independence. Anon says he still admires her.
Hopefully the LGBTQ+ agenda and rights can move forward in any case. It is the right thing for the SNP and Greens to do in any case.
DeleteAnd you'll continue to go on about LGBTQXYZ alphabet soup in any case and not about independence in any case.
DeleteHi Independence for Scotland, I am "the Anon" you are responding to. There are others here which are not me. I should probably get an account.
DeleteAnyway, yes my admiration for Sturgeon is on a shoogly peg for that reason. Possibly, we will have more to worry about with her husband's travails and what she knew when (although i really hope it's all a big nothing, I can't see how money just disappears).
I genuinely believed that the Supreme Court tactic could have paid off and that previous attempts at a vote were not plain sailing. However, she had to have the conviction to take it on. Or, at the very least create a strong team who were steadfastly able to take it on if she couldn't. A bit like Salmond did with Swinney, Sturgeon, Robertson, Yousaf etc. There was a team as well as Salmond.
I felt Sturgeon was using the supreme court verdict to bolster the defacto vote strategy as an appeal directly to the Scottish people. However, the splits in the movement, police raids, poor policies and the capable leader resigning have left the main party in a weak place to take this on.
On a positive note, the SNP may still be the most popular party even when it's at a low ebb. That shows Scotland has changed a lot. Independence is supported by nearly half the population. It's not going away anytime soon. If it happens, it will happen in 10 years I feel following a resurgent SNP or other pro-independence party. It really depends on whether the SNP can find their mojo again with a new leader. Probably not even the next leader but the one after that. It's not a given but neither is independence. We'll see.
I don't think Alba are going to make any inroads into the SNP vote regardless of their strategy. The time for that was in the Scottish Parliament election, they were given a decent wind and high profle but the result was very disappointing. I don't think it has enough people believing they are a threat to make them credible, unfortunately.
Anon11:42 What is the LGBTQ 'agenda'? That all sounds a bit sinister to me. And what rights do I have that they don't have? You seem to want to use the SNP as a trajan horse to pursue this 'agenda' of yours and not give a monkey's about independence. At least be honest about it and join the Greens.
DeleteIFS, I was emphasising how important it is for the SNP to get its act together before the Holyrood election in 2026.
DeleteIt’s difficult to see the GE being good, and if it’s really bad I’m sure most would agree we’ll probably see a change of leader, amongst other things. Some would argue, the worse the GE is for the SNP the better it’ll be long term. Short term pain for long term gain.
Whatever happens, the focus has to be in getting it right for 2026.
I don’t want to see a thrashing at the GE anymore than you but we may well have to live with it, unpleasant as it’ll be, hopefully it’s just short term.
As I’ve said before, there’s every chance it won’t be so bad, but will that be the best outcome long term?
Anon at 11.54am - As the poster Felix and others have suggested on here recently and myself many times in the past you do not need an account. Just add a consistent identifier at the end of your posts or even the beginning.
DeleteYou have invested a lot of emotional support into supporting Sturgeon. I get that so did I and many others at one time. You are letting your emotional side get the better of the cold facts that are there in front of you.
There are two key facts about the missing £600k:-
1. It was ring fenced at one point in time for Indyref2 as was promised then became unringed fenced later. Who did this and why?
2. The funds were given by SNP members and non SNP members and it was never just general funds donations from SNP members.
Sadly SNP politicians and SNP propagandists have publicly lied about these facts. They have said it was SNP money from SNP members and they can spend it any way they want. If Sturgeon, her husband and the treasurer were honourable people they would have publicly offered refunds to any donors who wanted their money back when Sturgeon said there would be no Indyref2.
In your next few paragraphs you are going through mental gymnastics to try and find an honourable way to justify Sturgeon's actions. Going to a UK court in London to try and get them to agree to a vote to end the UK was ALWAYS going to end that way. Plenty people said that would be the result.
The opportunity for independence has been massive during Sturgeon's reign but she never even tried. It was the opposite. The opportunity for independence is still there but the devolutionalists in the SNP are more than happy with the status quo and are the obstacle to independence along with the people who support independence but sadly entrust their hopes to charlatans.
The reason Alba have done poorly is because Sturgeon and her gang have trashed Salmond's reputation. The FM of Scotland going on national TV and basically saying a jury got it wrong because most are her friends, with no new evidence to support her assertion, was an utter disgrace. Hopefully, there will come a day when the Vietnam gang get their just deserts.
Hi independence for Scotland,
DeleteI cannot really disagree with much of that. I do accept the money thing doesn't make sense and it doesn't smell right Sturgeon didn't know. It looks, at best, that they thought they were spending money on the SNP as an extension of independence campaign but that should not have happened without an explanation to members. And that's the most forgiving explanation, there are others.
I think, in hindsight, there were opportunities but I don't think it was as easy as was made out. I think if the defacto vote had been truly taken forward, all under one banner, street action and a healing hand, we could have been in the middle of a defacto campaign right now. She made the case and then ran away. I agree Supreme Court was never going to accept the Scottish petition but I genuinely believed the rejection was a part of the plan to make the defacto route more substantial, in a sense. Regardless, the main problem is firing the gun and then running away. It was a terrible thing to do. I don't make it personal because actually Sturgeon could have wished to resign.. after many years at the helm anyone could be tired..but the idea of starting a defacto vote and not having a proper united team behind it was folly.
Salmond was a great leader, it's sad to see he has been tarnished but he has been. However, he does have an ability to make a case. I think Alex could still be an asset but not sure another political party is the way. Maybe more as an elder statesman. I'm not sure the Alba bet has worked but I don't doubt people's good intentions.
End of the day, we live in a democracy and Alba have a right to put forward a more radical case for independence. And we have a right to vote for it or not. Same with the SNP, Labour or anyone else. We need enthusiasm back, less friendly fire and more good humour.
I will give myself a moniker.
Abhainn shona
That would be a stupendous result. Can't see it though.
ReplyDeleteI feel that there is a very slight movement of people who really can't be arsed with the SNP getting a wee fright at the thought of Anas Sarwar smirking and snearing at independence.
It's a FPTP election though and Labour will be given all the media coverage up here. It's going to be difficult. People do also want rid of the Tories.
The polls are all over the place. I think they're as unlikely to win 49 seats as they are to win 19. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.
ReplyDeleteSNP doing well - all to the good.
ReplyDeleteThat said -- it is most unlikely that the SNP will win this many seats.
We should expect quite large losses - resignation territory for Humza is certainly if he goes down into single figures in terms of seats.
But if he say wins 19 seats looking at it reasonably I would not see that as being resignation territory given the random 'noise' that is an inevitable part of the game in the FPTP electoral arena.
One thing that is consistent regarding the polls is that WGD numpties will say low numbers in the polls for SNP are Britnats pochling the figures and high numbers like 49 they will say are the true figures but funnily enough not explain why the Britnats didn't pochle this particular poll.
ReplyDelete9 SNP MPs or 49 SNP MPs it won't make Independence any closer or further away and it won't affect my life but it will affect how much money the SNP get from Westminster called short money. And that is why they want your vote. They aint getting my vote. I have no desire to be represented in the House of Horrors. Attendance is acceptance and validation of Scotland being a colony.
Scotland is NOT a colony.
DeleteIfS has put his finger on a point which in fact I would argue is why we should care about SNP MPs.
DeleteEach SNP MP is an advocate for the SNP but that is only part of it.
Their number helps to finance advocacy for SNP politics.
The MPs salary is only part of it. Each MP is also able to employ researchers and constituency workers.
Overall it makes a significance difference to the SNP to have these additional MPs and hence helps further SNP politics.
SNP MPs have been praised for making a difference. And as Humza says if you want a Labour government you don't need to vote Labour as Labour are going to win anyway, so why not have more SNP MPs? Unlike James I would argue that, because the logic is impeccable, the message compelling.
What difference have they made and who has praised them?
DeleteTo all intents and purposes Scotland is a colony. Maist folk dinae like to think this but it is.
DeleteScotland is not a colony says a coloniser at 1.08pm. Who to believe. Me, who has on numerous occasions explained why I say that or the coloniser who just says no your no. If it is easier for you to accept the notion then just say Scotland is a de facto colony - in practical terms it's just the same.
DeleteSarwar on the tele doing is political broadcast on behalf of the BBC calling for a ceasefire NOW. Such hypocrisy by labour.
ReplyDeleteH
Humza has done better on this issue than other party leaders.
Delete