Next Conservative leader betting:
Kemi Badenoch 4.5
Penny Mordaunt 5.7
Suella Braverman 9.6
James Cleverly 10.5
Priti Patel 15
David Cameron 20
Nigel Farage 27
Boris Johnson 28
Tom Tugendhat 34
Remember this is the betting for the next Tory leader regardless of whether the vacancy occurs before or after the election, so for that reason it may make sense that Badenoch is clinging on to her position as favourite. The big advantage Mordaunt and Tugendhat would have in a pre-election contest is that Tory MPs would be in survival mode, and would be looking for the stop-gap leader who is most likely to connect with the public and limit the damage. But after the election, that advantage would disappear, and with years of opposition facing them, the Tories might well revert to ideological type.
As far as I know, the leadership rules remain unchanged, so it's not hard to imagine Suella Braverman winning a post-election contest. If she could somehow sneak into the top two in the MPs' ballot, she would probably storm to victory among the members on a populist pitch.
Seeing as the Tories are set for a bloodbath, the selectorate is likely to be very different if the leadership election happens after the Tories lose most of their MPs. That matters because, as we all know from their many leadership contests of recent years, their rules keep the real power in the MPs hands.
ReplyDeleteWhat ideology are the safest Tory MPs? They could have an outsized influence on the future direction of their party, and with it English politics.
“The most sophisticated electorate in the world” knows that it’s about to get a hell of a lot smaller. The last act many of these sooner to be non-MPs could take is another trip around the leadership merry go round. Although a truly terrible look, deckchairs anyone?, you just can’t rule it out.
DeleteThe Trussites have more of the "safest" seats, if safe is defined as the size of their majorities. However, this isn't a reliable indicator - neither Murray nor Mundell were among the safest(although Carmichael was expected to hold Shetland) prior to 2015. The safest seat then was Glasgow North East, which saw Labour drop from 70% to 33% and the SNP from 15% to 60%. That seat is now an official marginal, having flipped at every election since.
DeleteYou are correct that it matters which set of Tories survive the election. Ironically, this is actually in Starmer's hands. He has the option of throwing around 50-100 anti-target seats by spending absolutely no efforts campaigning there. He might still win them anyway, but it has to be tempting to try shaping his "loyal" opposition.
I don't know which way he'd push the Tories. On one hand saving the Trussites keeps the Tories on the far-right but they'll absorb Reform. On the other hand, saving the moderates splits the right-wing vote with Reform but this squeezes the centre ground Labour desperately wants to dominate.
Nice analysis. Especially appreciate the 2015 Labour wipeout figures, as right enough I’d forgotten the sheer scale of those swings. Labour’s single remaining bastion in Edinburgh South was no such thing before indyref. Red Morningside was a curious creation of Scotland’s realignment. The anti-independence Tory voters there were far ahead of the game.
DeleteLosing Glasgow of all places was an extinction level event for Labour in Scotland. England could be about to experience such a cataclysm of their own.
YouGov, Political favourability, field work 19 - 20 March
ReplyDeleteHeadline has Humza Yousaf on net favourability of -24% and Nicola Sturgeon on -44% but this is from UK population and is essentially irrelevant.
What matters is favourability amongst SNP voters and this is reversed.
Yousaf net favourability +35%, Sturgeon +69%.
Yousaf is wounded and Forbes and Flynn allegedly scent blood.
Flynn the knife, and Forbes the crown?
DeleteReally? That seems surprisingly good ratings for him albeit in his own party
DeleteIs this where we are now? Our own side "sensing blood"..
DeleteAgree with 5.35: Humzas approval rating there sounds great.
DeleteThey’re apples and oranges. If Humza had a +35 favourability among voters as a whole, he’d be untouchable and the SNP would be looking for Westminster gains.
DeleteReality check: he does not.
Back to the carrots.
It's a bit like the SNP, not much talent out there for them as alternatives.
ReplyDeleteIt's like we're living in a poundland of politicians these days. The country of Salmond, Sturgeon, Blair, Dewar, Thatcher.. even Gordon Brown had more gravitas than the politicians of today.
All feels a bit like an immature game, none of them are changing lives.. it's just about winning the election for winning sake. Labour will just be the same as the Tories.
The SNP does have talent. Not that there is a vacancy but there are plenty of talented people who could take over. Stephen Flynn and Kate Forbes to name but two.
DeleteThose two are halfway debatable but are there any others?
DeleteFlynn is ok and at least is listened to in London.
DeleteForbes' credibility will go the minute someone asks her when the Earth was formed, I'm sorry to say.
When does the Koran say the Earth was formed?
DeleteForbes' religious views give her extra rootedness in our traditions. A good thing.
DeleteI get that too. For the current crop of Tory ministers, it feels like they would treat a leadership contest as if it were a competition to be head boy/girl and whichever toe curlingly traditional boarding school they went to.
DeleteJust like Johnson. He ruthlessly manoeuvred himself into the top job and then couldn't be bothered to take it seriously when he got there.
One would hope Forbes has wised up significantly since last time. It's not so much her religious views that held her back, as the fact that she very gullibly allowed herself to be drawn into a cul-de-sac about the specifics of them.
DeleteIf she were to allow herself to be led by the nose into a debate about when the Earth was formed, she'd already have lost. There's absolutely no need for a frontline politician to get drawn into a debate about the loopier particulars of their religious beliefs.
The correct answer is that yes, they hold religious beliefs, but that they are able to separate them from their day to day political actions. Forbes bungled the latter last time. I'd be surprised if she was foolish enough to make the same mistake twice.
It's not the converted she needs to convince. She'll be lampooned, opponents didn't like Sturgeon and Salmond but they struggled to ridicule them. Not so with Forbes. She'll look like a zoomer if she says the earth was formed in 3000bc
DeleteI actually thought that Forbes handled those questions well. She demonstrated that her religious beliefs were sincere and firm. I think people give credit for that. She did not cave in or bend to whatever was expedient and convenient.
DeleteMy own view is that Kate is the obvious successor to Humza. She is smart, strong, and has conviction. For me her Christian values are a strong positive.
DeleteI agree she should be allowed to and some people will see a positive but harsh reality is it's not you who will be cartooning her from day one.
DeleteThose cartoons (as you call them) will not work. She is strong and they will in fact backfire badly.
DeleteJust wishcasting, eh?
DeleteShe has to up her game. No talking about god. Turn the subject on to respect for Islam and "all faiths" when an interviewer has the electric drill out.
The crucial thing is to pass the smell test. Once voters sense you're a numpty with swivel eyes, you're over. While many of us really do respect her faith, a look around at all the dead churches in Scotland sold for housing and the like. Her religion is a liability, not a selling point. Especially in the first electorate she must win: the secular, liberal left SNP membership.
She did very well in the last election of members and I thought her answers to the questions were perfect. She demonstrated strength and conviction.
DeleteLet's be honest, she's already proved she can do that. You wouldn't have had people like John Swinney being wheeled out for panic-induced last minute endorsements of Yousaf otherwise. Even with the outgoing leadership's total backing and with what might be euphemistically called their "procedural support", Yousaf only barely held Forbes off. She's the strong favourite to succeed him for a good reason.
DeleteRe Forbes - I don't see it personally but would love to be proved wrong.
DeleteI think SNP election is small fry to the ridicule she'd get as the actual leader. And she couldn't even win that SNP election, she was actually defeated remember.
DeleteYou forgot to put "defeated" in inverted commas there. I wouldn't personally go as far as using the word "rigged", although I think no less a figure than Robin McAlpine said it was rigged to all intents and purpises?
DeleteAnd by the way, your basic premise is that she's the SNP's Sarah Palin, which is clearly nonsense. I can understand it must have been a culture shock for some people to encounter a leadership candidate who is privately anti-abortion and privately anti-same sex marriage, but she clearly separates out her public role from what she believes in private. And she's not going to go around disputing the theory of evolution in political interviews, any more than Yousaf would as a committed Muslim.
DeleteYes, James, I know that's the defense and one I mostly agree with personally. I still think it's a problem and you can't just pretend it away.
DeleteHowever you want to cut it, Muslims simply are not brandished (maybe as it's an immigrant minority and the establishment shy from it) in the way fundamental Christians are. There's also a difference between Christian and Muslims (the large swathes of whom most people have a family background in and take bits and pieces from in their identity) and the more fundamental sects within them. The anti abortion angle won't wash nowadays, Merkel was elected in a different age. Times have changed.
There's a reason Yousaf won't be asked about Muhammed's winged horse, or Salmond about Moses parting the red sea...but Kate will be asked about the Earth being formed in 7 days. We might not like it, but it's how the world is.
I would say if we believe Kate Forbes as the leader of the SNP is the real way forward then people should get back in the SNP, make it happen, and stop playing a hobby in Alba. I know that sounds harsh but it's not trying to be mean. It's trying to be realistic.
DeleteIf you get to first principle, do you believe the SNP are the vehicle, yes or no? Does it need to change? Yes. Therefore, how does it help role playing in another party?
What does "role playing" mean?
DeletePretending relevance instead of affecting change where real change can be done. Surely it's crossed your mind Alba is more a hobby than a party that's going to change anything while we draw breath?
DeleteThere isn't an Alba at the moment, it's only a bunch of ship jumping nobodies that can't get elected on their own merit and will be gone within three years because Salmond will destroy it himself
DeleteI like Alba and many of the people including Salmond and think they have something to offer. But end of the day if you think the SNP need changed get in the SNP and change it
Delete"Surely it's crossed your mind Alba is more a hobby"
DeleteI can assure you that hasn't crossed my mind, no. Whatever else might be said about Alba, a party with two members of parliament and one member of the Scottish Parliament cannot be dismissed as a "hobby". Hope this helps.
Call it whatever makes you feel happy. Whatever, I'm more for than against in the level that matters. Just trying to bring some realism to this.
DeleteCan we have a roadmap that gets Scotland to independence in 5 years time which involves Alba at a meaningful point versus a reformed SNP? Gut and brain tell me no, as you know, hence all the articles pushing a new leader for a party you aren't a member of.
DeleteMore people voting SNP is the roadmap.
DeleteA roadmap's not any use to anyone if it's not accurate.
DeleteThe SNP has been and continues to poll far below their 2019 result. They will lose seats. The public won't soon forgive them for the police tents in Nicola's garden and the stink of incompetence and sleaze around them.
Part of the reason as to why Kate Forbes is widely defined by her zany religious views and Humza Yousaf isn't is that she sincerely believes in hers, whereas it's rather clear that he's mostly just pretending for electoral reasons.
DeleteThe further England moves to the right politically the better for the prospects of uk's demise. Right-wing England will deliver Scotland's independence no matter how much Scotland's supposedly pro independence politicians try to scupper it.
ReplyDeleteAs long as the disgusting uk disintegrates and the butcher's apron flies no more the world will be a better place.
DeleteThe English are beeling because Nike have got rid of the St George's cross on the England football shirt and replaced it with some purplish sort of cross. The English are so arrogant they actually have headlines saying Britain is outraged and furious. Thatis how they see Britain - England is Britain and Britain is England. Scotland and Wales don't exist except when stealing our resources.
DeleteIfs, LOL.
DeleteAnon, Loyal Orange Lodge.
DeleteAre Susan Calman and Baroness Colonel Ruth Davidson the same person? Might they inherit Sunak's Prime Ministerial mantle? Do they still have a career in politics or are they just trying to be Sandi Toksvig minus the charisma?
ReplyDeleteI am permitted by Royal protocol to reveal that Dame Susan Calman KCB and her Eminence General Duchess Ruth Davidson VC are indeed one and the same person. Mrs Calman is not going to get the same level of expenses as Vice-Admiral Davidson because she is unable to guffaw uproariously on demand whenever a camera approaches. Both are aware of the imminent end of their shelf life.
DeleteAstonishing what being the daughter of a rich man can do for a career
DeleteOr the son of a rich woman, your majesty.
DeleteThis is so off topic but I completely agree, I am the least likely person to dislike a tv personality i've never met but I can't stand Susan Calman haha. Seems like a bang average person given opportunities she would never have been given without the privileged upbringing. fair play, not her fault I suppose
DeleteI never met Susan Calman and I never seen her shows but everybody I know say she's brilliant. Everybody i know, infants in arms suckling on their mother's lactic teats, middle age homos, or elderly toothless vagrants, they all say We Want A Lot More Susan Calman On Our Screens At The Very Least On A Daily Basis. So many haters out there whose lives are guided by misery. I have been in loads of TV shows on my own meditates. Susan Calman has been in loafs of TV shows on her own merits. People write in to Channel 5. They say Give Us More Of The Jolly Lady. I'd say that's the cicive proof.
DeleteShe's great which ever one she is. I think they are both Sir Andrew Bowie, Chief Brown Owl of the veldt brigade .
DeleteKate Forbes: She is a member of a loopy church. Membership entails believing what is written the Bible, verbatim, including the first chapter. It is her duty to her evangelical church to make that publicly known, and as far as homosexuallity goes she has publicised her church's views and her adherance to them. Her church has 8,000 members making it irrelevant to society. The Orange Order has double the membership and to my knowledge doesn't express views about creationism, but stands with Forbes on same-sex marriages. If she was a more public figure she would be roasted on TicTok loops. That is not debatable - that would happen, and TicTok is where people under 30 get their news. The idea of the SNP leader sharing fundemental beliefs with the likes of the Orange Order, Sara Palin, and Ian Paisley would be very heavily ridiculed.
ReplyDeleteI respect her and I also believe religious tolerance is an important value.
DeleteSorry to say, I agree with this. It won't be Unionists doing it either. It will be the loony faction in the SNP clipping up her interview replies and making her seem intolerant.
DeleteYousaf's 'white' speech is probably all he's known for by most outside Scotland.
She was asked about it in her leadership campaign last year and she answered in a strong way. No need to worry about a few intolerant people on social media.
DeleteAn a line was drawn under the matter.
DeleteAre you the "Settling into the rôle" guy? Have even you given up on Humza now? Dear me!
Why is religious tolerance an important value?
DeleteFriday Wynne: Locke "A Letter Concerning Toleration" is a good starting point.
DeleteFriday Wynne, I take it you'd prefer religious intolerance?
DeleteThere isn't a bone in Kate Forbes body that's religiously intolerant of anybody
DeleteOnce more the Alba stink of invention rears its lying head
You Alba people really are slavish to your master in your lying
DeleteThe only intolerant people are you
Kate Forbes could worship the moon and say it is made of blue cheese for all I care. What I care about is that during the leadership election she had no plan for Scottish independence and didn't convince me she wanted independence.
DeleteHer religion isn't the problem - it's her choice of churches.
DeleteHer church is that of her religion.
DeleteShopping around for god? Nah, she’s not an American dabbling with New Age mysticism. Fairly sure the Wee Frees don’t bend spoons!
Delete> The further England moves to the right politically the better for the prospects of uk's demise.
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely. It's high time for Labour to burst the fantasy in many Scots minds that the good times will ever return for Britain.
> Right-wing England will deliver Scotland's independence no matter how much Scotland's supposedly pro independence politicians try to scupper it.
No. Hard disagree. With the wrong politicians, we could be stuck exactly where we are for generations to come. Unlike Pete Wishart's pension and Ian Blackford's peerage, Indy doesn't come automatically. It will take leadership, daring, and balls to break London rule.
Ian Blackford isn't interested in a peerage and you know it
DeleteThis is the stink of Alba politics at work, no different to Labour or Tory
Numpty anonymous at 6.31pm is this the same Blackford who said we would not be taken out of the EU against our will that told you he didnae want a peerage. Is this the same Blackford who told the Britnat media that the SNP should change its policy and allow its members to help out the Britnats in the House of Lords. Was he just suggesting this to help out PensionPete Lord Cosy slippers. What a nice guy Blowhard Blackford is - always thinking of others but not Scottish independence. The only stink is the stench of betrayal from the SNP.
DeletePete Wishart and Ian Blackford are both fine public representatives. This negativity is uncalled for.
DeleteNumpty anon at 9.11pm - you call it negativity I call it betrayal. Wishart and Blackford " are both fine public representatives" for the British state.
DeleteWith Blackford and Wishart representing us, who needs Starmerites or Tories?
DeleteHere's one for the Wheesht for Indy boys: How many more years of this will you stay loyal for? You're not Wheesht for Indy, you're Wheesht for Parasites.
It ain’t a blip, ReformUK are now the third force in UK politics. On an average of c. 12% on the Wiki page, Westminster voting intention, ahead of the LibDems firmly rooted at 10%.
ReplyDeleteThe latest YouGov poll (19 - 20 Mar) has them 2% behind the Tories in England on a sample population of 1,756.
A tiny sub-sample from Deltapoll has them in 2nd place in Wales (24%). More reliably an amalgam of sub-samples from YouGov have them narrowly in 3rd place, just edging out Plaid Cymru.
It’s tempting to see 12% as a ceiling but we’ve been here before with the Brexit Party. With the Tories and Tory lite Labour offering anodyne homogeneous platitudes, at least ReformUK have a USP.
We may not like jingoistic, xenophobic populism but in an environment where mainstream parties are staffed exclusively by middle-class, politics graduate clones devoid of any real work and life experience, the pull of demagogic utopian propaganda may prove a siren’s song to the English masses.
And whatever it is, it will the Scots’ fault. Bring it on, England. Remind the feart among us who we are!
DeleteReform UK are not a traditional party with local branches and elected officials etc. It is a top-down type of party. It seems to be a protest vehicle and its not clear that the supporters in the opinion poll agree with their policies.
DeleteThe Peston show on Wednesday and up popped Yousaf to be asked by Peston about the demand by the SNP if it gets a majority of seats that is a manifesto for a referendum.
ReplyDeletePeston says:- " the point about that 29 is that it is 14 fewer MPs than he currently has at Westminster so I said to him why on earth would that be a success it would look to me and most people like a humiliation for the SNP.
Yousaf says:- " I don't know if you can name me a single election where a party wins the majority of seats, wins that election and then gets told you can't take forward what's in your manifesto, not only what's in your manifesto what the central premise of your manifesto that would be severely undemocratic I would suggest."
Yousaf seems to have forgotten about all the election wins by Sturgeon when she was told by an array of PMs to pissof. This guy is a f*****g idiot.
So Yousaf is punting the same sad old story of win an election, ask for a sec 30 and get told to pissof once again by Westminster and moan about it being undemocratic again. Of course it is undemocratic ya numpty Yousaf. Scotland is a colony and colonies only get what their colonial masters allow them to have and Indyref2 is not allowed. " Severely undemocratic I would suggest " says Yousaf - f*****g pathetic. This guy is no independence leader.
Is there anyone as thick as Yousaf? The answer is yes - all the numpties who keep on swallowing all this shit that is stuck on repeat.
You seem to be a happy soul. Are you Victor Meldrew?
DeleteToo negative about SNP.
DeleteGood point, night shifter @4:40am. Humza's not *that* thick. He doesn't want independence, just to hold onto enough seats he's not forced out. It's the SNP's loyal Yes voters who he's speaking to: in slow—watch my mouth now—words. "We want independence. It will be a shame when we don't get it. Vote SNP, stronger for Scotland: a voice in the Lords."
DeleteI am not a night shifter - I rise early.
DeleteAnonymous at 2.35am/4.40am - thanks for proving my point in my last paragraph.
DeleteAt the end of the day, people are going to have to get behind the SNP. However the party have to start focusing more on independence, like they did in the past, that would I’m sure get every independence voter behind them. One party fighting for independence is what’s needed, and I think it’s obvious that party can only be the SNP.
ReplyDeleteI think a really bad GE will set independence back, there’s little doubt of that, however maybe in the long run it’s what’s needed, a new start with a new leader that every nationalist will get behind.
Your first sentence had me going for a moment, there, but overall you're on the right track.
DeleteHere's where we differ: I have ZERO faith that Humza's SNP will put independence back on the table before the election, and therefore I welcome them getting thrashed by Scots as a whole. I don't think an SNP meltdown at Westminster will set independence back, because we are already completely stuck with no prospect for action towards indy from the SNP at all. They need an overhaul. An election beating should prompt that. Therefore it's a good thing for independence.
My message to the SNP: Get back to independence and you will prosper. It's entirely your choice. The ball is in your court. Until then, sit on this.
James - why aren’t you writing about the Hate Crime Act?
ReplyDeleteIfS plus other regular contributors should be worried.
Hey numpty why should I be worried.
DeleteSome posts on here will be offensive to some people and could be reported as a hate crime.
DeleteThe police have said every one will be investigated and even if no charge is appropriate a non hate crime incident will go on file…that could affect job applications and the like following background checks!
Anon at 1.58pm is that a reply to me? I don't see political parties or numpties on the protected characteristics list.
DeleteNot even April 1st yet and the cultists are already threatening to report people like IFS for hate crime! What a shower of snowflakes!
DeleteInteresting to see some of the anti-SNP posters seem to be OK with hate speech.
DeleteWhere's the hate speech? Is "numpty" so offensive to you?
DeleteI see myself as pro independence. I would love a free and independent Scotland. If numpties think that is hate speech then we are truly in the nightmare Orwell wrote about. " Whatever the Party holds to be the truth, is truth."
Delete'Hate speech' seems to mean anything the SNP/Greens cult don't agree with. Scotland is entering a very dark place under this intolerant and authoritarian regime. Whoever thought we would end up like this in the heady days of 2014?
DeleteA poster on another blog called Ross Anderson seems to quite like the Hate Crime law.
DeleteThat's our old winter sports fan with the mysterious French wife isn't it?😂
DeleteI bet Felix and IFS support Tory Murdo Fraser's latest attack on SNP!
DeleteI see Joanna Cherry SNP MP KC certainly does.
Deletehttps://www.thenational.scot/news/24209105.joanna-cherry-backs-tory-msp-legal-threat-police-scotland/
Anon at 2:55, wouldn’t be surprised.
Delete"Whatever the party holds to be the truth, is truth." You can see that unquestioning loyalty every day on WGD and from some anonymous posters ( who probably include the same WGD posters) on SGP.
DeleteAnon @ 2:55(and agreeing with yourself at 8:03😆), I would approve of anyone who attacked this appalling piece of legislation. What are you going to do about it? Report me for a hate crime at your local sex shop?🤣🤣🤣
DeleteI agree with Felix. (I'm a different Felix, honest I am).😆
DeleteMe too. I think he shows a sureness of touch and wisdom above that of any other poster.
DeleteRight, that’s it! This insinuation is too much. I’m off to the sex shop to report you lot for making a wank gag on the internet. I’ll just go stand over by the dildoes and the fleshlights…
Delete"I'll have some nipple clamps, a dildo and a gimp mask please. Oh, and I'd like to report a hate crime - somebody called me a pervert on the way in"😁
DeleteThe packaging for this strap-on dildo offends me. How about I pay half price instead of filing a thought crime complaint? The user instructions for this ball-gag look a little gender normative for my liking, too…
DeleteThere we have it: Felix supports a Tory (Murdo Fraser) and opposes the SNPs legislative initiatives to combat hate crimes.
DeleteAbsolutely! Surely that's clear enough even to someone as thick as you! Now off you go to reappear as another 'I agree with anonymous ' poster later you utter 🤡
DeleteI agree with Felix.
DeleteShameful but not surprising from an anti-SNP poster.
DeleteWhy don't you clutch your pearls and pop off to the nearest cop shop to tell them about your hurt feelings then, you big girl's blouse 😂😂😂
DeleteI agree with Felix👍
DeleteRule Britannia
ReplyDeleteGod save the King.
Rule Britannia you say - isn't that a bit rude to exclude N. Ireland. Isn't there a rule UK song?
DeleteI agree with that sentiments. A lot.
DeleteIreland should be united and the mainland uk should remain united and we should on with it.
DeleteFrance and Germany etc don’t have to put up with all this separatist grievance sh@te as spouted in this blog every day
A united Ireland, separate from Britain!? How dare you cast off the Loyal Ulstermen! You should be ashamed to call yourself a Brit!
DeleteA Scotsman, an Englishman, a Welshman and an Irishman walk into a bar.
DeletePolice Scotland inform them they are being investigated for a hate/thought crime. Subsequently, a "non-crime hate incident" is permanently recorded against them.
"Good thing they buggered off by the time we were blootered!"
Comic genius. I have never laughed 😅 so much in my 84 years on this planet. I doubt if I ever will again. My sides are splitting.
DeleteI see that the Aye Write book festival is to be cancelled this year because Creative Scotland turned down its application for a grant of £77,500. But never fear, Sturgeon says it should look for alternative funding, Yousaf says he will see what can be done, and Annie Wells has shown an interest. By my reckoning that's just £25,833.33 each.
ReplyDeleteGlasgow thanks you!
Now, about energy prices and that cost of living crisis ...