Should Scotland be an independent country? (Find Out Now / Alba Party, 11th-24th January 2024)
Yes 52%
No 48%
In spite of the cynicism that greets any Find Out Now poll commissioned by a pro-independence client, the reality is that the results have to be regarded as credible - Find Out Now are affiliated to the British Polling Council and I know from direct personal experience that they take the BPC's rules and guidelines extremely seriously. They have previously been commissioned to conduct an independence poll by a unionist newspaper, namely the Daily Express, and as with the subsequent polls for pro-independence clients, that one showed a Yes lead. So perhaps the cynicism should really be directed at the fact that the Express didn't use them again after getting the "wrong" results (although no less a unionist figure than Blair McDougall did give them the seal of approval by commissioning a poll from them last year).
Nevertheless, the information about the new poll is limited at this stage - there's nothing yet on Find Out Now's website or Twitter account or even on Alba's own news page. So I'll just be a tad cautious until I'm able to doublecheck that the standard independence question was asked (I expect it was, though) and also that the numbers in the data tables tally up with what we're seeing today. There was a strange discrepancy between the data tables in the last Find Out Now poll and what had been published several days earlier by the client (Independent Voices) - there may well have been an innocent explanation for that, but hopefully this time the Yes lead will prove to be beyond dispute.
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I am standing tomorrow (Saturday) as a candidate for the Alba Party's Finance & Audit Committee, Disciplinary Committee, Appeals Committee, Conferences Committee and Constitutional Review Group. If you're a National Council delegate I'd be grateful if you'd consider me (James Kelly) for a vote. You can read more details HERE.
Figures pretty much in line with previous Find Out Now polls.
ReplyDeleteExcellent polling result.
ReplyDeletethe YES campaign has been boosted with a 3 word slogan from NS.
ReplyDelete''A Fucking Clown''
well said Nicloa.
We need more polls like this, consistently showing Yes ahead.
ReplyDeleteNo, we don't need more. We need to hold a vote on independence, win it, and then become an independent country.
DeleteWe know what your game is, K C - you're pretending that a "sustained lead for Yes" would somehow magically change things but that we can't do anything until that happens. The events of 2020-21, when there was an unbroken sequence of big Yes leads, have already proved you wrong about that, I'm afraid.
Absolutely. We need independence, not the independence treadmill.
DeleteGiven that it was an Alba commissioned poll, how credible is it?
ReplyDeleteCompletely credible. The client does not influence polling methodology, and Find Out Now follow BPC rules.
DeleteWhat's particularly encouraging, and you'll forgive me if I use the word "thrilling", is that it's not just polls from Find Out Now that consistently show Yes ahead, but also polls from Britain's leading polling firm Ipsos. That heartens me tremendously, I have to say.
DeleteYup.
DeleteIndeed.
DeleteIt is now time for the SNP to put their differences aside and get behind the voters to drive forward independence. ;)
Also really exciting that Redfield & Wilton practically had Yes level in their most recent poll.
DeleteYes, that was remarkable.
DeleteLOL.
DeleteYou are welcome. I just saw it at the National and wondered if you knew how to find the tabs. Sounds like it’s just a bit too early to get into details though.
ReplyDeleteThis bit of the writeup sounds like it was a full UK wide poll:
“FindOutNow interviewed 5313 adults between January 11 and 24 for the poll. From those, a representative sample of Scotland of 842 respondents was used to calculate the final results.”
Wonder if they asked English and Welsh respondents the Scottish independence as well! I’m guessing no, and it was simply an omnibus poll for multiple clients combined; but those numbers would be very interesting!
If the English public, especially in marginal seats, really did swing round in favour of Scottish independence, a significant obstacle for us could be removed. In 2014, as I recall, England polled very heavily for No.
No, I think you've got the wrong end of the stick, I don't think it was a UK poll. The broader sample of 5313 would have been solely in Scotland.
DeleteI may well be wrong. I only sometimes look at polling data tables. It’s just that 5000 figure does sound like a very large (and expensive) sample for a Scotland-only poll to me.
DeleteBut this is what Find Out Now do - they have a different sampling approach from other firms. From memory, their panel has its roots in the Postcode Lottery or something like that.
DeleteIntriguing! I’d no idea anyone was doing such large samples in Scotland. As I said last thread when I linked it: the subsamples sound wild.
Delete@9:12. Polls are weighted to be representative of the whole population. It’s not a conspiracy to silence unwanted voices. But yes, the 5k → 800 thing is a striking way to publish the arithmetic.
DeleteThis poll is a much needed boost. Hopefully future polls continue to show support for independence above the all important 50% mark.
ReplyDeleteAnd hopefully elections favour independence-seeking parties who would do something other than squander that all-important mandate.
DeleteThank for the update re the credibility of the poll, James. The important thing that I take from it is that despite the travails of the SNP in the past year and the constant onslaught from the unionist media, support for independence has remained firm.
ReplyDeleteI’m finding this a bit confusing.
ReplyDeleteHow many people were polled here? Was it 5313 or 842?
Maybe it’s just me missing something!
A representative sample of 842 was drawn from a broader sample of 5313. So the latter figure is how many people were polled in the literal sense.
DeleteThanks for that James.
DeleteFor the purposes of calculating asymptotic standard errors n=842. So a decent sample size for polling purposes with quite accurate (industry standard) predictions as to party voting intention.
DeleteIt’s certainly a positive poll, though 842 is a pretty small sample.
ReplyDeleteNot really, that's close to a standard size.
DeleteNo doubt we'll have some 'analysis' of the poll from the uber unionist racist Britnat, mad as a bucket of frogs British/Irish liar Skier.
ReplyDeleteI don’t think he’s a unionist, but I do think he’s as mad as a bucket of willies and every bit as informative as to the state of Scotland.
DeleteAs a lifelong unionist, I've been concerned for some time that, although we do see polls with No leads, they always seem to be from the less credible polling firms like Savanta. It doesn't surprise me to find that Yes are in the lead.
ReplyDeleteIf you’re a lifelong unionist, what are you doing on here?
DeleteDrowning my sorrows. And you?
DeleteAgain, could I urge people not to hit the direct "reply" button when responding to trolls, because when I delete comments the direct replies automatically go too. It may be harder to spot on a thread like this, because there's one very persistent unionist troll who has taken to posing as a "concerned nationalist", but you'll clock his writing style after a while, he uses the same phrases again and again and again.
ReplyDeleteThese trolls are pathetic. You’d think they’d have better things to do.
DeleteWell said James - total respect.
DeleteWhat did people think about Humza's performance at the covid investigation?
ReplyDeleteIt seemed quite careful.
DeleteThis poll is indeed a sensation.
ReplyDeleteIt shows 52% - an outright majority of the population - in favour of independence. Exactly what will be required to win a vote.
DeleteLol did you manage to keep a straight face while typing that?
Deleteat 3:08. Struggled at maths class, let me guess?
DeleteYears ago, we could only dream of having an outright majority in favour of independence. We've actually got there. What a remarkable achievement.
DeleteYup.
Deletehttps://uk.surveymonkey.com/mp/margin-of-error-calculator/
ReplyDelete842 = 3% MOE
Damn, I gave away my secret resource :-(
That was a yesindyref2 Anonymouse wee, sleekit, cowran, tim'rous beastie
DeleteYousaf says:- " I am winging it! And will get found out sooner rather than later🤣" like Sturgeon saying she has imposter syndrome you don't get found out sooner as long as there are SNP numpties who keep voting for them.
ReplyDeleteHas anyone seen the party support poll in Scotland by Norstat Group, 22-25 Jan?
ReplyDeleteAs the SNP hardly mention or do anything about Scottish independence a 4 page Tory leaflet from Sandesh Gulhane punts the same tired old vote Tory to stop independence and the SNP. Gulhane is an MSP but wants to join the big boys club in Westminster as MP for East Renfrewshire. Troughing is at a much higher level there.
ReplyDeleteThe first page is all about how the Tories are the only Party who can beat the SNP.
The second page is about " This relentless and unwanted focus on independence is holding Scotland back...."
The third page is Gulhane's six positive pledges 😂😂😂 of which no. 1 is "Stand up for Scotland's place in the UK and stop a second divisive independence referendum." The other 5 are not in the least inspiring.
Page 4 really comes in to its own regarding independence as every sentence is about independence. Some examples:-
" New SNP plans to treat election as de facto referendum"
" Yousaf: win the most seats and we'll start start Indy talks"
" The SNP will demand independence talks with the UK government if it wins a majority of seats at the general election"
The fact that these statements are all different doesn't seem to bother Gulhane.
The bizarre world of Scottish politics where the Britnats go on more about Scottish independence than the party they claim is for independence. Not a word by Gulhane on the cost of living. Not a word on the boat people ( immigration). Sunak's pledges get no mention. Dross is invisible. Nothing about the ongoing massacre in Gaza. It's all about the dastardly SNP and independence. You would almost think they want you to believe that the SNP want independence.
We got similar during the week from Andrew Bowie. Basically a rehash of their 'Stop Indy Ref 2' campaign that they've run at every - and I mean 'every' - single election campaign in Aberdeenshire West since 2015.
DeleteExcellent post, IfS.
DeleteIt wouldn't be hard to go on about independence more than the SNP.
DeleteNonsense, independence is all the SNP talk about.
DeleteIf we want independence we need to get behind the SNP. Obviously they’re going through a bad time just now but it’ll get better.
DeleteIndependence can only be achieved with a strong SNP.
As a footnote to my post three of the remaining 5 pledges by Gulhane are actually Holyrood areas. The guy is empty of any ideas.
Delete