New Britain-wide YouGov poll offers some respite for the SNP

In the absence of more frequent Scottish polls (which I'm doing my level best to put right - fundraiser HERE!), the best available straw in the wind about what is going on with public opinion in election year comes from the Scottish subsamples in GB-wide YouGov polls - unlike most other firms, YouGov seem to structure and weight their subsamples correctly, although the margin of error is still huge due to the low sample size.  In spite of continuing to show a massive Britain-wide lead for Labour, the new poll - perhaps surprisingly - suggests the SNP may have made a small recovery.

GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 23rd-24th January 2024):

Labour 47% (-)

Conservatives 20% (-)

Reform UK 13% (+1)

Liberal Democrats 8% (-)

Greens 6% (-1)

SNP 4% (+1)

Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

Scottish subsample: SNP 37%, Labour 29%, Conservatives 16%, Liberal Democrats 6%, Reform UK 6%, Greens 3%

The reality of normal sampling variation means that Labour being a few points ahead in one subsample and the SNP being a few points ahead in the next subsample is perfectly consistent with a no change position, and the two parties remaining very closely matched.  But even that would be encouraging in one sense, because it would suggest Labour are not pulling away relentlessly.

Seat projections based on an individual subsample are a bit of a dubious exercise, but for what it's worth, it works out as SNP 36 (-12), Labour 13 (+12), Conservatives 5 (-1), Liberal Democrats 3 (-1).  That's pretty much the exact reverse of the projection from the previous subsample, illustrating how relatively small changes in the popular vote can be magnified by first-past-the-post and produce dramatic consequences in terms of seats.

The other big story of this poll is the astoundingly low seven-point gap (at GB level) between the Tories in second place and Reform UK in third.  That raises the intriguing question of whether Nigel Farage returning as Reform UK leader would be enough to see the Tories plummet to third in the polls.  

Before we finish, a reminder that the Scot Goes Pop opinion poll fundraiser urgently needs a boost - let's not leave it in limbo for months.  It's important that not all Scottish opinion polling is commissioned by anti-independence clients - we need to make sure that occasionally questions are asked that Yes supporters want asked.  Donations can be made via the fundraiser page HERE.

However if you have a Paypal account the best way to donate is via direct Paypal payment, because that can totally eliminate fees depending on which option you select, and payment usually comes through instantly.  My Paypal email address is:

jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk