Sunday, January 14, 2024

Most of the election pitches the SNP are trying out are hopeless - the exception is "only the SNP can beat the Tories in Scotland", but that will need a lot more work


Stewart McDonald is the SNP MP for Glasgow South. Whether fairly or unfairly, he's often derided as the epitome of a Westminster careerist who wants to kick independence into the long grass so he can enjoy a few decades in the London parliament.  That makes the current situation bitterly ironic, because it's probable that burying independence is about to cost McDonald his seat and thus his career.  In 2017, when the SNP's national lead over Labour was around ten points, he held on in Glasgow South by just four and a half points.  If we assume the latest poll showing national parity between the SNP and Labour is broadly correct, he's on course to lose.

Which makes it fascinating that even as he stares down the barrel in this way, he's doubling down on his belief that the SNP win elections by putting independence on the backburner.  Perhaps he feels that what has worked three times can work a fourth time, even in more difficult circumstances, if you just "do it harder" as our dear old gun nut friend Kevin Baker used to say.  But the problem is that the circumstances are not just different, they're totally transformed, and the Scottish people are looking at Labour in a way that they haven't for years.  It's therefore difficult to know whether to laugh or cry when McDonald earnestly writes today about how the SNP can win by promoting high-minded objectives such as tackling "the crumbling of the post-war architecture of global governance".  Good luck getting a hearing for that as a third party standing in only 8% of the UK's seats when all the media will be interested in is the Labour v Tory horserace for Downing Street.  The sad reality is that if you want to be a Scottish political careerist in the current context you probably need to be a candidate for a Brit party, and that party needs to be called Labour.

No, the SNP's best hope was to challenge the prism of the Labour v Tory horserace by making the election about something else altogether, at least in the minds of independence supporters, in other words by making it a de facto referendum on independence.  Having turned their back on that idea, they seem to be frantically casting around for alternative pitches, almost all of which are hopeless.  The one that does have some promise, though, is the line about "only the SNP can deliver a Tory-free Scotland", because there is actually some truth to that claim and it can be demonstrated to voters, albeit with some difficulty because it's a complicated point.

As I've noted many times, the fact that "vote Labour on Thursday to get the Tories out on Friday" is not really an honest claim does not make it any the less compelling to voters, because it intuitively sounds correct and the simplicity of it is almost irresistible.  But if you have the means of challenging it, you've got to at least try, and the SNP do have the advantage that they are clearly the main challengers in all six constituencies held by the Scottish Tories...

Dumfries and Galloway:

Conservatives 44.1%
SNP 40.6%
Labour 9.2%

Moray:

Conservatives 45.3%
SNP 44.2%
Labour 5.0%

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine:

Conservatives 42.7%
SNP 41.1%
Liberal Democrats 11.7%
Labour 4.6%

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk:

Conservatives 48.4%
SNP 38.8%
Liberal Democrats 8.1%
Labour 4.7%

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale:

Conservatives 46.0%
SNP 38.3%
Labour 8.5%

Banff and Buchan:

Conservatives 50.1%
SNP 40.4%
Liberal Democrats 5.4%
Labour 4.1%

Those numbers make a powerful case all by themselves, because people can see that even if there is a truly enormous swing from SNP to Labour in those seats, at most all that will be achieved is the replacement of the SNP as the second-placed party with Labour - it won't dislodge the Tories.  Doubtless these numbers will be appearing in leaflet bar charts in the constituencies themselves to encourage Labour-inclined voters to vote tactically for the SNP, but I actually think - as unconventional as it might seem - that the SNP need to get the numbers out nationally in an advertising campaign. The notion that "only the SNP can beat the Tories in Scotland" is too counterintuitive to really stick unless you provide a visual representation of the underlying logic, and you probably need to bash voters over the head with it again and again and again.

I know you might think "this is completely irrelevant outside those six seats", but remember that a lot of voters don't do detail, and if you can convince them that the SNP are the threat to the Tories in Scotland, they may well start to think that applies across the country.

Scot Goes Pop poll fundraiser: If you haven't already, please consider helping Scot Goes Pop commission a New Year poll so we as jndependence supporters can actually ask the questions we want asked and think need to be asked.  The fundraiser page is HERE, however if you have a Paypal account the best way to donate is via direct Paypal payment, because that can totally eliminate fees depending on which option you select, and payment usually comes through instantly.  My Paypal email address is:

jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

67 comments:

  1. I can see the logic here. Unfortunately the SNP are as unpopular as the Tories, and it’s difficult to see Labour voters voting tactically for the SNP.
    Labour voters will be confident of winning the Westminster election, even with the Tories holding these six Scottish seats.

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    1. It's not difficult at all to see Labour voters tactically voting for the SNP, in fact I'm quite sure it will happen to some extent.

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  2. The 'more of the same' narrative punted by the likes of MacDonald is hardly likely to inspire new converts or win back those who have lost faith in the party. Going for a Tory wipeout might have more electoral appeal but remember we had them (and Labour and LibDem) reduced to one MP each in 2015 and voters may just ask what good did it do then?

    I have a feeling that the period of SNP electoral dominance is coming to a natural end, brought down by hubris and complacency as happened to Scottish Labour of old and nobody exhibits those qualities more than Stewart MacDonald.

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    1. "and voters may just ask what good did it do then?"

      No, they won't ask that. Most voters are not political anoraks who remember the minutiae of what happened in an election a decade ago.

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    2. Are you calling me an anorak, James? How rude!😁I did say they 'may' ask though not that they would. I just wish I had your confidence that they definitely won't.

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  3. Vote SNP to stop the Tories is arguably too negative a message and arguably it refers too strongly to other parties.

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  4. If there are no Tory MPs in Scotland and the Torys win the election we will get an English Tory MP for Secretary of State for Scotland lording it over the Scotland colony.

    If there are no Tory MPs in Scotland and Labour win the election we will get a Scottish Labour Secretary of State for Scotland lording it over the Scotland colony.

    Either way we will always have a Britnat lording it over Scotland the colony no matter how many SNP MPs there are.

    This Tory free stuff from the SNP is thin gruel for independence supporters and is pretty pathetic stuff. You are easily pleased if that is all you want from a party that is supposed to deliver independence. The big reveal - the SNP are devolutionalists - numpties try not to get to upset.

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  5. The SNP hold most of the seats in Scotland. In the many seats where Labour is the challenger, the SNP need to point out that the constituents already have an MP guaranteed to vote the Tories out AND an MP who will force Labour to focus meaningfully on Scotland. I think that might save the SNP enough seats to have more than Labour in Scotland.

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    1. I think that's Humzas pitch and it seems a good one.

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    2. Anonymous at 6.58pm " an MP who will force Labour to focus meaningfully on Scotland." How exactly will this MP do that? Sound like another assertion without evidence/argument to back it up.

      Anonymous at 7.09pm are you anonymous at 6.58pm?

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  6. In some of the marginals concerned I think that it might be counterproductive to downplay the Lib Dems as a 'wasted vote'. During 2017 and 2019 quite a bit of the 'soft' Lib Dem vote went to the tories to keep the SNP from taking seats. What the SNP needs to do in the seats concerned is to identify their own voters, don't downplay the Lib Dems and hope that their voters return to them, giving the SNP the chance to come through the middle.

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  7. In 3 of the above seats held by the Tories the lead over the SNP is between 8 and 10 points. Anybody that thinks there’s any chance of the SNP taking these seats is living in fantasy land.

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    1. You do realise the Tory vote has dropped since 2019, yeah?

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    2. I’d imagine the SNPs vote has dropped too though.

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    3. In which case the gap hasn't necessarily widened in those seats and anti-Tory tactical voting has the potential to close it.

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  8. As I said the other day, a good result from Reform too can help the SNP taking some of those seats from the Conservatives.

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  9. If Rreform do actually put up candidates it could seriously damage the tories.

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  10. Very interesting data.
    To expand on this topic, Mr Kelly, can you say how many seats in total have Labour below 15 % and so tactical voting might favour the SNP more than Labour?

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    1. “Tactical voting might favour the SNP more than Labour “ !
      Are you having a laugh?

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    2. Some people vote Labour tactically to keep SNP out so that Labour would benefit from this type of tactical voting, while other people will vote Labour tactically to keep the Conservatives out, so overall Labour looks set to benefit from tactical voting from more than one source and motivation.

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  11. In my constituency - East Renfrewshire - Kirsten Oswald lost her seat in 2017 when Sturgeon said a vote for the SNP is not for independence. She regained it in 2019 when Sturgeon said vote SNP for Indyref2. Now after that betrayal I am hoping Oswald gets the boot again ( it will need a very large boot to shift her) but I think there is a good chance it will happen.

    When Sturgeon made it clear in 2017 that they were a devolutionalist party none of the numpties had the courage to call her out as a devolutionalist and therefore a Unionist . She then commenced her persecution of Salmond in 2017 to prevent someone who actually wanted independence coming back to take charge of the SNP. Subsequent years she just lied about delivering Indyref2. Useless Yousaf is now in charge and he thinks he can get some votes by claiming he can get rid of Tories in Scotland. A once great party - the SNP - reduced to this pathetic state with a Britnat Murray Foote as Chief Exec. That is the Sturgeon legacy.


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    1. Has the boot been invented that could cope with Oswald's well-upholstered rear end?

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    2. Felix- I think I once saw a suitably large one in Disneyland that would do the job.

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    3. And the above comments from 'Independence for Scotland' and 'Felix' confirms my repeated statements that they are a pair of unionist trolls. Working in tandem now and as well as anti-SNP propaganda they are lobbing in sexist remarks. James Kelly - I am very surprised that you are permitting this pair of unionist trolls to get away with this on your site.

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    4. Anonymous at 2.26pm - my apologises Kirsten. Any chance of getting Scotland independent this millennium? Pretty please.

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    5. Kirsten at 2.26pm - you are wrong - there have been no sexist remarks - as a well studied wokey surely you realise they could only be interpretated as possible fatist remarks. For example Blowhard Blackford possibly could be interpreted as fatist but if you called Blackford a fat waste of space that surely is. Any way you are normally the expert on these type of things that will surely deliver independence for Scotland.

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    6. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    7. Change the record! You don't even have the courage to put an identifier on your comments but want others to be banned for reasons that exist only in the void where your brain should be. Go away and grow up.

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  12. Even if the apparent strategy for the SNP of kicking the Tories out of their seats in Scotland is successful, perhaps they should bear in mind the old adage:

    For what shall it profit the SNP, if they shall gain 6 Tory seats, and lose all the other 51 when Indy supporters the whole world of Scotland over, say: "FTFAGOS I'm spoiling my ballot sheet?"

    Yousaf is a moron, listening to the still Labour after all these years - wormtongue - Sheppard, Noon who's egg ham slice Stornoway and tattie scones short a full Scottish breakfast, McDonald who seems to have RUSI ambitions (no chance, they actually have a clue), Hassan who I've never got past the first 3 words of his 25,432 word meanderings so actually rely on comments btl (a first for me), and all the others the National seems to be pumping out as it does its best to avoid any chance of Independence over the next, ooooh, 5 decades.

    Ballot - spoil - SNP - headless - chickens

    Meanwhile - oh look a squirrel - as everyone salivates and spits over such a meaningless distraction "Fresh Trident safety fears as submarines' 'life expectancy' extended repeatedly" as they'll go with INDEPENDENCE but will stay with the PRECIOUS UNION you mad Stockholm syndrome victims.

    SNP = Stupid Nincom Poops

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    1. That's quite a rant! Have you been on the navy rum 'Admiral'? You're name will also go on 'ze list' of unionist trolls if you're not careful😁 😁😁

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    2. Felix he disnae like that nickname - but that is the abbreviated version - the full version is Bathtub Admiral - his wrath may soon be on its way to you if your not careful.

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    3. Just my wee joke. It took me ages to figure out what FTFAGOS meant but I realise now it ends 'for a game of soldiers', now if only I could figure out the rest of itπŸ˜‰

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    4. Filthy landlubbers.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ta-Z_psXODw

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  13. Surely it’s time to get right behind the SNP. In all probably we’re going to lose some seats but hopefully it won’t be as bad as some are predicting at the GE. Even if we take 2 or 3 of these Tory held seats that will be seen as a real positive. The SNP are the only realistic vehicle for taking us forwards to independence. All this infighting and negativity needs to stop and we all need to get behind the party.

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    1. Excellent post. Fully agree. Well said.

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    2. But why as an Independence supporter, not a member of the SNP, would I be remotely interested in voting for a party whose avowed purpose is to keep Starmer, the Prime Minister of a foreign country, "honest"?

      Such a thing is up to our Foreign Minister, and ambassadors.

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    3. Many SNP MPs arr well regarded and carry weight when they speak in the House e.g. Joanne Cherry, Stephen Flynn, and John Nicholson.

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    4. Anonymous at 9.32pm - only a House Jock would care if they were well regarded by Westminster. Do they get a wee pat on the head from the Speaker of the House for being nice boys and girls.

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    5. These DNP MPs and some others have built up a cross-party reputation in the House.

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    6. Anonymous at 11.44pm - it may be your House it ain't mine. Aye a reputation as grovelling House Jocks.

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    7. Our independence seeking representatives should be despised by the house. Their aim, as Winnie Ewing famously put it: is to settle up, not settle in.

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    8. That would not be the best way to serve constituents in the House.

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    9. Anonymous at 8.45am - correct.

      Anonymous at 9.23am - you obviously think that SNP MPs should fit right in with the Westminster system as at present and be House Jocks. You won't get independence like that. Settling in, chairing their committees for them, taking their money - you won't get independence that way.

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  14. James says:- " Having turned their back on that idea...." The SNP have turned their back on so many so called plans/stategies/ideas for independence by Sturgeon's gang I've lost count. The non anorak member of the public is probably totally confused about what the SNP are doing for independence. I'm not. They are doing SFA.

    Always remember the SNP could call a de facto Holyrood referendum now. They could have called one in the last two years and honoured their Holyrood manifesto commitment. They didn't and they won't because they are charlatans supported by numpties.

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  15. Major YouGov polling in Telegraph predicts 25 seats for SNP so not the wipe out that has been prophesied by gloomsters.

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    1. You think the loss of 23 seats is a GOOD result? It certainly puts the kibosh on the mad idea suggested on here the other day that we could go for independence with 29 seats out of 57.

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    2. It is not a wipeout at all.

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    3. I never said it WAS a wipeout! What are you talking about? I've always said I think SNP will remain the largest party but that the days of SNP majorities are over. If you're going to criticise at least have the courtesy of reading my comments properly.

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    4. As I say it is not a wipeout at all.

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    5. As I say, I never said it was - are you illiterate?

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    6. Felix - it's a tricky business dealing with anonymous posters🀣🀣🀣

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    7. It is when he's a cretinπŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚

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    8. Felix: just to be clear, I was the one who said it was not a wipeout and I never said you said it was a wipeout. So, as I say, not a wipeout.

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    9. Well why did you say it in reply to me? Anyway, sorry if you're offended but this is the problem with so many anonymous posters, you don't know if you're dealing with the same guy who was arguing with you yesterday. 'Worzel Gummidge' as I described his thinking process.

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    10. Felix. No problem at all.

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    11. Felix - as I said above it's a tricky business dealing with anonymous posters. Particularly when they do not make it clear who are they responding to and whether they are a different anonymous from some other anonymous. It's basic communication standards failure - leads to confusion. But also mildly amusing at times πŸ˜‚πŸ˜‚ and frustrating.
      I never understand why they cannae put some sort of identifier on their posts at the bottom eg Pete Wishart professional waster.

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  16. I confidently predict that the winner of the UK GE whenever it happens will be the English. Historical regards prove over the last 314 years that the English win every election. It was designed that way between 1705 and 1707. When the English in Westminster say it is the most successful union in history they are probably correct because they always win. The English haven't lost an election in over 300 years. So if you play by England's rules you will lose no matter what Yousaf or Flynn say.
    There is only one way to win - decolonisation/independence.

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  17. I hate to be the barer of bad news, but I’m afraid tactical voting is going to do far more damage to the SNP than the Tories.

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    1. It certainly did in 2017. Edinburgh’s many unionist voters got their act together after the shock of 2015 and voted Whichever Brit Will Do in a big way. My own seat went back to the hated and discredited Lib Dem’s, thanks to Tory swing voters.

      You can see the tactical games voters play quite nicely in Single Transferable Vote council elections. The Three Stooges’ voters are very flexible, especially the Tory ones who seem primarily motivated by a burning hatred for independence.

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  18. Low turnout and how that falls across different parties could also be a large factor.

    As soon as it was clear there would be an election this autumn the Scottish Government published another demented bill that, once it faces some debate and questions, probably at the height of the election campaign, will open a sewer of terrible PR all over the SNP.

    At that point the UK media will be wall to wall red and blue Tories trying to out-Tory each other, the Scottish media will be all SNP robots defending yet another heavy handed and intrusive "inclusive" policy (eg defending jailing parents for expressing an opinion with their child that the Scottish government disagree with) and that will surely be reflected at the polls. As far as Scotland is concerned it's a three horse race with two riders trying to decapitate their own horses.

    If the SNP had any interest whatsoever in winning the Scottish part of this UK election, they would begin by changing the actions of its members and Scottish government, not changing a wee slogan.

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    1. Their pig-headedness about pursuing unpopular policies like this almost seems like deliberate political suicide.

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    2. They may be woke, but they’re sleepwalking. It’s time to wake up or fall.

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    3. @Felix Deliberate sabotage by embedded assets. The fact the party membership is still behind them is what makes me shake my head.

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    4. Well you only have to see some of the replies by the party faithful on here. God forbid you criticise the sacred memory of Nicola - they're onto you with pitchforks and flaming torches!🀣🀣🀣

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    5. I've always argued that the first step to a recovery is to refocus on independence. Sturgeon's biggest mistake was to lead the party down this woke path which doesn't resonate with voters. In the end it contributed to her own downfall when she tried to explain how a fully intact male double rapist was still a woman because he said so. She ended up making an arse of herself on national TV and was gone weeks later having previously said she had 'plenty in the tank'. Even then the party refused to see the error of their ways and pursued an expensive and hopeless appeal to the Supreme Court. They just don't listen or read the room and this is what will cost them seats at the election.

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    6. Who would want to vote for the Scottish government/SNP when they find out they want to make it a crime to talk to your child to try and stop them mutilating their bodies by chopping them up to try to look like a member of the other sex. You don't get more of a brutal conversion than doing this to your body but the SNP call this bill which will facilitate conversion an anti conversion bill. George Orwell 1984 doublespeak.
      There are two possibilities here:-
      1. These people are batshit crazy.
      2. These batshit crazy policies are designed to sink the SNP and independence and the authors are Britnats. Thankfully so far it is only the SNP going down in the polls.

      No matter whether it is 1 or 2 above they should not get a vote from any decent rational thinking independence supporter.

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