Sunday, January 21, 2024

How the SNP can - and cannot - afford to use independence in their general election campaigning

Stephen Noon said recently that the political energy has moved away from the issue of holding another vote on independence and towards kicking out the Tories at Westminster.  That's correct, but he's interpreting the significance of it wrongly - he thinks it's a force of nature that the SNP were powerless to resist and now just have to make the best of, whereas in fact to some extent it's the product of their own handiwork.  The worst thing that could possibly have happened was Nicola Sturgeon's resignation and the space it opened up for the devolutionist faction within the SNP to junk the clarity of her de facto referendum plan.

Those SNP MPs who think the solution to any electoral problem is ever more caution probably look at the current state of the polls and think they had a lucky escape when the de facto was scrapped.  How absurd it would have been, they probably think, to have tried to maintain that the target was 50% + 1 of the popular vote when it'll be enough of a struggle to end up in the mid-30s and outcount Labour in terms of seats.  How the media would have mocked us for our delusionalism.  And, again, such thinking cannot possibly be more wrongheaded, because the SNP would not be suffering their current plight if Sturgeon was still the leader and the de facto was still the plan, because that would have prevented the energy moving away from independence in the first place.

Of course the media wouldn't necessarily have played along with the SNP about the meaning of the election, but nevertheless that meaning would be currently contested between the "kick out the Tories" narrative and the "endgame for independence" narrative.  Independence supporters tempted to move back to Labour on the (bogus) basis that they need to do that to dislodge the Tories would feel genuinely conflicted when reminded that a 50% + 1 vote for the SNP would reverse the 2014 referendum outcome and establish an outright mandate for independence. By aiming for 50% + 1, the SNP probably wouldn't have got that, but they would have motivated enough independence supporters to vote for them that they might well have retained their seats majority and lived to fight another day.

So how can the SNP galvanise the independence vote in the absence of a de facto?  It may not even be possible to do it, but certainly the way you don't do it is in exactly the way it's obvious the SNP are gagging to try - ie. by blackmailing Yes supporters in a negative manner by saying that even though there's no plan to do anything about independence, people still have to vote SNP because independence will be killed off otherwise.  We saw the reaction from unionist politicians and activists to Tommy Sheppard's article attempting exactly that pitch - they were rubbing their hands with glee, imagining themselves after an SNP defeat saying "independence is dead and we have the SNP's own word for that".  It would be "once in a generation" on steroids.  What Sheppard did must never, ever be done again.

Perhaps a more promising tack would be to look carefully at Labour's own messaging and learn lessons from it.  Labour have their own problem, as we've seen with Anas Sarwar being put on the spot about whether a vote for Labour would be used "as an endorsement of the Union".  Fascinatingly he felt obliged to say it would not be, presumably because he knows Yes supporters moving to Labour are not on the whole ready to "move on from independence".  So could there be some mileage in warning indy supporters that Labour cannot be trusted with their votes?  That all Labour are looking for is a weapon to use against independence?

Additionally, Labour have taken to mocking the supposed complexity of the SNP's messaging, for example the idea that Humza Yousaf would be open to working with Keir Starmer.  "If you want MPs who will work with a Labour government, just vote Labour" is the chorus from Labour activists.  By the same token, couldn't the SNP point out that the idea independence supporters should vote Labour because that will not necessarily be taken as an endorsement of the Union is absurdly convoluted?  "If you want independence, just vote for an independence party"?

I also think Labour have got away with murder in portraying themselves as the "change" option when in fact they represent something almost indistinguishable from the status quo.  It's about time the SNP started loudly pointing out that independence is by far the biggest change on offer from anyone in Scottish politics.

Before we finish, a reminder that the Scot Goes Pop opinion poll fundraiser urgently needs a boost - let's not leave it in limbo for months.  It's important that not all Scottish opinion polling is commissioned by anti-independence clients - we need to make sure that occasionally questions are asked that Yes supporters want asked.  Donations can be made via the fundraiser page HERE.

However if you have a Paypal account the best way to donate is via direct Paypal payment, because that can totally eliminate fees depending on which option you select, and payment usually comes through instantly.  My Paypal email address is:

jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

42 comments:

  1. Yousaf was certainly talking more positively about independence to Laura Kuenssberg this morning. Let’s hope we hear more of that, and independence supporters can get behind the SNP, and the GE dosen’t turn into the disaster some are predicting.

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    1. "You don't deserve me, babe. You're too wee, too poor and too stupid. You're nothing. The only good in your life is me. Get chapping doors and vote SNP."

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  2. I agree 100% - in Humza's interview on the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg programme this morning he was very positive about independence. Good to see. It will be important for those who support independence to now vote for the SNP.

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    1. "Look, pull yourself together. You look a state. You forced me to, I had no choice, right! Jeez, just look at you. I’m not going anywhere with you as beat up as this. Whatever did I see in you? Vote SNP."

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    2. Yesindyref2, I think you have a point. There's an awful lot of anonymous posts backing each other up with very similar language. A game of Tig seems very likely

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    3. My guess is one guy's been sent here "to balance up the comments." They certainly don't read James's posts, or our pushback on their Happy-Clappy Humza guff.

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  3. The problem with the SNP punting that independence is by far the biggest change on offer is that the SNP ain't offering that. They are offering to work with Britnat Labour to get rid of the 2 child benefit restriction. Disnae seem to be an independence party to me and I only vote for independence parties. Continuing to work within the Westminster system is being a Britnat party. The SNP have fallen so low that the bloody Tories are pushing the SNP as an Independence Party more than SNP MPs are.

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    1. The SNP is the only party that favours independence that is capable of winning seats.

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    2. If you still believe the SNP favour independence after the last nine years, I've a couple of bridges to sell you

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    3. I think you could sell most of these numpties a full box of chocolate teapots.

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    4. I think it's you who's the numpty here, you've bought an empty box with zero chocolates inside it with only a promise that one day a man will and put some in it, honest he will, naw promise, just give me your money
      Is that for his next court case numpty?

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    5. Salmond's the past, get over it, Nicophyte.

      I've no faith in Alba, either. They're irrelevant. The SNP's disgusting fascination with London careers—and Nicola's astonishing attempt to nobble Independence with her braindead "supreme" court case—is actively repelling me and everyone else you see in the SNP's sinking polls.

      If it was just Alba, you could rest smug. But you see what happens to your party when the voters make their judgement.

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    6. Anon at 2.45am - like most anonymous numpties you cannae even post clearly. I've not bought any chocolates. I'll assume you are referring to Salmond. His next court case is on its way and it's against the criminal plotters. Sturgeon's gang.

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    7. Who's in jail first: the disgraced former Scottish First Minister or the disgraced former US President?

      Note: I didn't say Trump or Biden, let alone our own 'sub judice' names…

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  4. I supported Ash Regan.

    Yousef to his credit, appears to be growing into the role a bit more now. The positive focus on independence during the Kussenburg interview was most welcome.

    A sustained focus on independence and driving home the fact Labour back everything Tory from their welfare policies to Brexit are two absolute musts now. The ball is in his court.

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    1. "I supported Ash Regan."

      Oh yes of course you did.

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    2. Nice attitude, @9:45. "You voted for the true believer candidate? How frightful!" You'd fit right in at Northern British Labour.

      I myself considered Ash a lightweight, and I take great exception to her policies on criminalising sex workers. But eye-rolling at Scottish nationalists is exactly the behaviour that will bury you lot, just as laughing behind working class socialists' backs ruined Labour.

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  5. It's in the language the SNP use.

    "kick out the Tories" and "make Scotland Tory-free", "keep Starmer honest", is all about total immersive engagement in UK politics - UK Tory and UK Labour, and that leaves absolutely zero to do with Independence. Clearly their only interest is in trying to retain their status as the UK's third biggest party, one of their continual perturbing Unionist boasts.

    The SNP by their own language have lost interest in Independence, except as a sop to the soppy. That means the SNP is a UK party, not a Scottish one, and should be ashamed to be misnamed the Scottish National Party. It should rename itself as the Scottish Unionist party, and change its slogan to "Come Dine With Me" in the halls of Westminster, with Tommy Sheppard as the Maitre D.

    Pass the champers.

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    1. This seems a second order criticism and seems wide of the mark. The SNP under Humza is a highly successful political party that knows its voters very well. It operates in a highly competitive setting yet is very popular with the voters after so many years in government. It has impressive message discipline. None of this happens by accident but is the consequence of a lot of careful work.

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    2. "The SNP under Humza is a highly successful political party that knows its voters very well."

      The SNP under Humza lost Rutherglen, and will face its first general election this year, where the polls suggest they'll get humped. I, for one, will no longer be voting for them.

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    3. Your complacency about the SNP popularity will be your downfall. Remember what happened to Scottish Labour. Voters abandoned them in their droves when the truth about their 'commitment' to socialism became clear. Likewise the SNP and its phoney nationalism

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    4. Local factors in Rutherglen.

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    5. There are clearly paid SNP staffers posting on SGP these days. One minute you have numpties who struggle to put a sentence together then you are getting more sentences like this " It operates in a highly competitive setting yet it is very popular with the voters after so many years in government." or " It has impressive message discipline. " or " a second order criticism" the sort of stuff someone like Stephen Noon would say.

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    6. Yeah, like they threw a genuine indy supporting MP under the bus for the usual Sturgeonite drone (why do they all look and sound the same?). Ferrier had already paid the penalty for her mistake - nobody else lost their seat for breaking covid rules. I wouldn't vote for them now in a month of Sunday's and have been a supporter for more than 30 years.

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    7. Paid or wannabe paid, as a lofty career ambition. Imagine getting to work for The Party: all a good boy's dreams come true! Next stop: Aboard the Gravybus!

      Ahem, sorry, let a gendered term slip in there. Mia culpa. A thousand lashes then. Who's up for it? You, MhĂ iri?

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    8. "Local factors in Rutherglen."

      That almost seems like a parody comment. No-one can be that naive and complacent, surely?

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    9. Humza did well in the Laura Kussenburg interview. He communicated a clear vision for the SNP. He expressed himself in everyday terms that people can relate to: this ability to communicate is very important and Humza demonstrated competence in this space in the interview. Success is not easy in politics and nobody in the SNP is complacent about the forthcoming general election which is expected to take place in the autumn of 2024.

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    10. Anon at 9.47 reinforces my point about paid staffers. Pity this poster cannae communicate in everyday terms like his hero Yousaf. Alternatively, Murray Foote has spent some of the missing money on an AI system to churn out stuff like " Humza demonstrated competence in this space".
      Independence supporters are very easily satisfied if a competent political interview is hailed as a great achievement. Sturgeon did thousands of competent interviews - so what.

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    11. Exactly, IfS. Anon should pay attention to the polls. They were right about Rutherglen, and they'll be right about a campervan full of ex-MPs coming back home.

      Gird yourselves, SNP HQ. Things won't be pretty. Butt-sore egos too.

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    12. They're "local factors" all across Scotland. Parochial non-progressive attitudes, disappointing really. Can't be helped.

      All the rest of us find our way to London, do we not? Bottoms up!

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    13. Anon at 7.41 am
      "This seems a second order criticism and seems wide of the mark."

      Actually the rest of your posting doesn't disagree with me, it just effectively says that the policy is deliberate and planned.

      However, it seems a bit daft to direct the strategy at, for instance, the 14% of 2011 SNP Holyrood voters who voted for the SNP but not Independence, rather than the 86% who voted YES, with many not being impressed in the slightest.

      So if it is a deliberate strategy, the Tories and Labour couldn't have done it any better if, for instance, they'd co-opted Stephen Noon or Tommy Sheppard to do it for them.

      If they keep it up the SNP will be down to 6 MPs, or even just the 1.

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  6. We need a strong SNP and people need to get behind the party. I accept things haven’t been great and obviously still aren’t great, however I have every confidence it’s going to change for the better. The polis investigation is dragging on longer than we’d all like, but once that’s out of the way we can move forward with confidence. If no charges are brought I’m sure we’ll see a surge in support for the SNP.
    Let’s hope things change for the better soon, maybe even before the GE, as only with a strong Scottish National Party can we move forward and achieve our ultimate goal.
    People need to think very carefully when the election comes around, and understand the damage that could be done if large numbers stay at home or waste votes by voting for fringe parties.

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    1. Anon at 9.26am - The SNP was a fringe party when I first voted for them and people like you said don't waste your vote on a fringe party. The SNP would be nowhere today if people hadn't voted for a fringe party. The SNP under Sturgeon's gang is a phoney Independence Party. You are clueless if you think the only problem with the SNP is the missing money.

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    2. I don't 'need' to understand anything of the sort. It's people like you who need to understand you've been lied to. The SNP abandoned independence as its core belief under the 'leadership' of Sturgeon and now sees itself as the vanguard of some nebulous woke 'progressive' movement. That's not what I voted for in the past and it's not what I'll vote for in the future. You have lost a section of your support and need to accept it rather than patronise them by telling them what they need to understand

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    3. Anonymous at 9.47pm - oh is that right is it. So it's ok for you to express an opinion but someone who disagrees with it should just shut up. Mega arrogance there Mr " think carefully" . Its a public forum ya numpty. Also I never said you said the missing money was the only SNP problem - that is just a straw man you erected. If you have better things to do well who is stopping you - not me - post or don't post but stop greeting like a wean. Give me your address I'll buy you a box of hankies.

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    4. The SNP needs two things:

      1. To wake up
      2. Get back to independence

      Split or get off the pot!

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  7. I totally understand some people being disillusioned with the SNP, I get that, but shunning the party at the GE isn’t the answer.
    If people carry out their threats in large numbers this isn’t going to end well.
    Let’s hope people have a serious rethink.

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    1. Here's some more of the language of the SNP, only interested in continuing to be Westminster's third biggest party:

      “respect Scotland’s voice"
      “work together”
      “Lets scrap the bedroom tax”
      “your proposals for the House of Lords”
      “implementation of the recommendations of Gordon Brown’s Commission on the UK’s Future”

      And you want me to vote for THAT?

      I'm an Indy supporter, not a Unionist.

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