Boxing Day drama as new Opinium poll is first online poll since early September to show support for independence at 50% or higher

So I've got my wish - the Opinium poll for the Sunday Mail contains independence referendum voting intention numbers, so at last we have an opportunity to judge the impact of the Downing Street party on the state of play.  But actually the results have ended up muddying the waters somewhat.

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Opinium, 15th-22nd December 2021)

Yes 50% (-1)

No 50% (+1)

There are two completely different ways of interpreting this.  There's a small (and statistically insignificant) 1% swing to No since the last poll conducted by Opinium in early September.  However, that September poll was an oasis in the desert - of the twelve online polls conducted by all firms since mid-May, it was the only one that didn't show a No lead.  So it just depends on how you interpret the September poll - was it an outlier caused by sampling variation? If so, the salient point about the new poll is that it's the first online poll since September to show Yes breaking the 50% barrier, and thus could indicate that the Downing Street party scandal has caused a modest pro-Yes swing.

On the other hand, the Yes lead in the September poll could indicate that Opinium have a slightly Yes-friendly methodology compared to other online firms, in which case the new poll could suggest that nothing much has changed.  As ever, we'll have to wait for a couple more polls from a couple more firms to find out which interpretation is the correct one.

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You can catch up with my Scot Goes Popcast interview with iScot editor Ken McDonald HERE (on video) or HERE (audio only).