The lesson for unionists is be careful what you gloat about. It's no time at all since they were rejoicing that the run of Yes-majority polls had come to an end, and just yesterday Ruth Davidson was boasting (on highly dubious grounds, incidentally) that the unionists now had their own unbroken sequence of six polls showing opposition to independence. But the wheels of fate don't stop turning for anyone - that little run is now over, courtesy of a new Opinium poll for Sky News.
Yes 51%
No 49%
To the best of my recollection this is the first Opinium poll on independence since the 2014 referendum, so it's not possible to give percentage changes, or to draw any conclusions from Opinium's track record as either a Yes-friendly or No-friendly pollster. However, the hope must be that these numbers mean that the drop in support for independence has now stabilised, or even that there has been a little bounceback. Certainly the unionist parties were keen to give the impression that the last year was just a weird aberration and that once No was back in the lead it would stay there permanently. It appears that won't be the case, and it really is anyone's guess whether the next poll will show a Yes lead, a No lead, or an even split.
I have to raise at least one eyebrow at the reporting priorities of Sky News in all this. There are two main stories in their poll - one is a Yes majority breaking the sequence of No leads, and the other is that the SNP are projected to fall slightly short of an overall majority. Sky have chosen to headline the latter, and to treat the former as a minor detail. I can't help feeling that if the poll had shown a No majority and had broken a sequence of Yes leads, they would have magically decided that the independence numbers were the newsworthy part.
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot voting intentions:
SNP 46%
Conservatives 24%
Labour 20%
Liberal Democrats 6%
Greens 4%
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot voting intentions:
SNP 42%
Conservatives 22%
Labour 19%
Greens 7%
Liberal Democrats 5%
Seats projection (with changes since 2016 election): SNP 64 (+1), Conservatives 29 (-2), Labour 24 (-), Greens 7 (+1), Liberal Democrats 5 (-)
SNP: 64 seats
All others: 65 seats
SNP SHORT OF OVERALL MAJORITY BY 1 SEAT
Pro-independence parties: 71 seats (55.0%)
Anti-independence parties: 58 seats (45.0%)
PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY OF 13 SEATS
More details and analysis to follow shortly...
Not sure how pertinent it is to the current context, but Opinium conducted a poll a few days before the independence referendum and found a 53% in favour of No.
ReplyDeleteAh, I'd forgotten about that, I wasn't thinking that far back. I'll correct the post.
DeleteIn their weekly polls for the Observer this pollster seems to over sample Conservatives in Scotland which could be their house effect. Their latest weekly report had the amount claiming to have voted Tory at about 10% higher than their actual vote.
ReplyDeleteThat is in the 2019 GE.
DeleteIs a wee bit Tory. Weighted base is 27(+2)% Con 2019.
DeleteBased on VI data compared to other polls, opinium are less favourable for Yes than other pollsters.
ReplyDeleteApproval:
ReplyDeleteSturgeon:
57% Approve
30% disapprove
=+27% NET approve
Johnson
23% Approve
58% disapprove
=-35% NET disapprove
There may be another poll soon as a friend received an invite to a Panelbase poll commissioned by Citizens Assembly. It asked the standard voting questions along with a multitude of other questions. Hopefully it was not for private purposes.
ReplyDeleteWhat are the figures for the Scottish elections
ReplyDeletehttps://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-scottish-parliament-voting-intention-11-march-2021/
DeleteTBH, this is pretty sh***y polling for unionists given their main ammo clip now appears to be empty.
ReplyDeleteIt does look quite like the Hamilton and Committee reports are not going to be much use to them (one week away? so already done) and the SNP being cleared + indyref 2 hope could see a big pro-indy surge.
I see the CPS - who along with Lady Dorian have already dismissed the Wings brexiter 'bombshell' as not actually being evidence of anything - are once again saying it's not evidence so won't be pursuing it.
They are however looking at the criminal leak of Scottish court documents to English brexiters. I hope they issue a warrant for Davis and the unionist (has to be) that was the source of the leak.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19169634.crown-office-no-investigation-david-daviss-claims-commons/
“The Crown are satisfied that having regard to the full messages in the context of other messages and the entire evidence in the case there is no evidential basis to support the instruction of a criminal investigation.
'Not evidence' like I said, which is why the committee are not interested. They want evidence.
That really was a last gasp act of desperation IMO.
That lead isn't enough even if it's accurate. I've said this before, and I'll repeat it -- as of today, a huge number of ACTIVIST nationalists (not the voters, the activists) don't have a vision of an independent Scotland per se, it's a vision of some leftist utopia, and to that end, they actually don't want votes from socially conservative Scots for fear they might contaminate the purity of that vision. Without those votes, the levels of support shown in the run of recent polls will not be enough to carry independence, and no socially conservative Scot is going to vote to leave the union only to recreate a clone of the USSR. Until the SNP gets its house in order and cleans out the infection, there's going to be no independent Scotland.
ReplyDeleteIFS says the same.
DeleteThe USSR didn't grant section 30s to states under its control. Instead, people were told they couldn't have independence for a generation.
DeleteThey also partitioned countries and built Belfast walls.
The UK was isolationist, seeing Europe as an enemy. It also proliferated the nuclear arms race.
DeleteWhen small European states broke free of the UK's grip to obtain democracy, they joined the EU.
The USSR is more Tory than England.
DeleteWhen can we expect the Brexit bounce to kick in? Whatever happened to the Boris bounce?
ReplyDeleteFor seven years we've had near-ideal conditions for an independence campaign. We've had the conditions. We haven't had the campaign. Why not?
Perhaps more to the point, why are more people not asking what possible reason could there be for squandering the opportunity? Why are so many people contentedly waiting for the moment when the consequences of Brexit really begin to bite? Why do they imagine there might still be significant numbers of people who haven't yet realised that Boris Johnson is a total arse surrounded by lots of little arselet?
How can it be that there aren't more people demanding to know why the polls aren't at 61% not 51?
Why do people still have confidence in Nicola Sturgeon when she has so obviously and so comprehensively failed to do anything about the constitutional issue? Why are so many prepared to accept more promises when they haven't even been offered the courtesy of an excuse for the failures of the last seven years?
I can hear it now. COVID! COVID! COVID! As if that excuses everything. Even stuff that happened 9or didn't happen) long before the pandemic hit.
Ah, but it's the way Nicola is handling the Covid crisis that's winning people over to Yes. When? When are these converts going to arrive? And what use are they anyway? They are not committed to Scotland's cause. They've just joined Nicola Sturgeon's fan club. If she goes out of favour then any positive effect on the polls disappears.
It's no good getting angry AFTER the election when it turns out Sturgeon's only idea for addressing the constitutional issue is ANOTHER Section 30 request followed by another five years of paralysis. Get angry now! Get angry and DEMAND that the SNP adopts the #ManifestoForIndependence.
Agreed. A 2% lead is pitiful after five years of SNP control and the disasters of brexit and Johnson. Nicola is a failure in that regard, given the opportunities. A consistent campaign on independence, driven by vision and strategy, would have prepared the ground for a thumping win in May. Instead we have had 'wheesht' - with internal bickering and division on entirely unrelated, unpopular agendas.
DeleteSorry, but this shows an utter failure to understand the nature of the situation.
DeleteScotland has never left the 2014 campaign. Indy will only stop being a topic of discussion at the dinner table / office canteen
/ bus stop....once it either happens or Yes falls to less than 30% (which isn't going to happen).
The arguments for indy in 2014 are fundamentally the same now. They have not changed. They have been continuously made since then but Scots have not been inclined to go for it again. The brexit vote did not have the effect intended because a lot of Yes voters fancied Scexit while No remainers figured they'd wait and see.
Short of England executing Scots first born, getting Scotland behind an iref and over 50% yes just a few years after 2014 was just not going to happen. No amount of door stepping and handing out leaflets saying the same fundamental reasons for Yes would change anything. In fact Scots gave Yes a message in 2017; 'no the now'. That is changing now in response to circumstances. Age is catching up with the union too.
Indy is not just for Christmas, it's forever. The population slow turns but when they do, it's normally for good.
In 2014 the SNP were bounced into a vote they were all but invariably going to lose. Yes spent the entire campaign just getting back the 45% who'd been saying that ahead of 2011 but then got cold feet; 15% at least anyway.
Yes hit 55%. It's maybe dropped back to ~50? as the cold feet thing happens again. They'll swing back with a decent campaign post may.
For now, the goal is an indy majority. For that, the indyref must feature large, but domestics must not be forgotten. That kicks off soon as parliament closes end of next week.
Totally agree with you on this issue, skier. Peter talks about 7 years of ideal conditions, but there's a tiny flaw in that argument. At no time since 2014, have the polls shown a majority in favour of independence. Only in the last few months has the needle moved above 50%.
DeleteThere is a world of difference between caution and actively putting on the brakes, which is what folk seem to imply is going on. Are the SNP leadership being too cautious?
Perhaps! Let's have a discussion about that. However, if you want to talk about whether Sturgeon, Blackford, Wishart et al are deliberately dragging their feet, because they don't want independence, then, as we say in Aberdeen "awa' an' bile yer heid!!"
Now, IF the SNP get a stonking majority in Holyrood AND a majority of the vote (along with the Greens), and Sturgeon, Blackford, Wishart et al DO drag their feet, the fine, come back and we'll talk. Until that time, consider yourself the Scottish equivalent of Lord Haw Haw......
You are being polite Alex. It is not a tiny flaw. His argument is fundamentally flawed. Prior to the Brexit vote there were no conditions, let alone ideal ones, for another referendum so soon after the 2014 one. The consistent run of opinion polls in favour of Independence has only occurred in the last six months or so. To claim otherwise is frankly delusional. If we lose this next referendum we are finished for decades. That is the political reality. Then there is the small matter of the pandemic. To have attempted to hold a referendum in the past year would have been political suicide. The timing has overall been pretty good, and the process undertaken reflects the need to have laid the groundwork for the court proceedings that may well arise. Bell should focus his energies on persuading just one person to move over from no to yes. If we each do that we are home and dry.
DeleteSkier, you are as complacent and excuse-making as i would expect from an SNP mouthpiece. Five years of not making the case, no inspiration, no vision, and in the most propitious circumstances ever. Instead a useless internal battle and legislation without popular support. It is too late for the SNP to be suddenly interested in independence once again, just when the election is around the corner. They only had one remit.
DeleteStephen, you are spot on. I cringed when Sturgeon announced in 2015 that a vote for the SNP was not a vote for independence, but as time has gone by, and circumstances have piled up one on top of the other, it is beginning to looked like genius. Failure of the SNP at that point, could have spelled the end of the independence campaign. As it is, we are now in a position where the SNP might win a majority of seats, the Greens could win up to ten additional seats ........ AND ...... WELL OVER 50% of Scots might vote for pro-Indy parties.
DeleteIf that happens, it is all over bar the shouting. I'm amazed at these punters who talk about the "timidity" and "inaction" of the SNP, but accept the premise that "The nasty man Boris won't LET us have independence".... as though Boris pigging Johnston will be able to stop Scottish folk from declaring independence!!
While I READILY admit to having had doubts about SNP tactics in the past, it astounds me that these twats like Campbell would DARE to suggest that the SNP are traitors to the cause of independence.
My answer to him and his ovine followers is " Away and bile yer heids!"...... "Stand aside and watch what happens when the Scottish people speak, and an Elton educated Tory pansy tries to tell them they can't be independent".....
As the awful Mel Gibson said in the crap film "Braveheart"...... "Steady,.....steady".....
The SNP continues to refuse to fight for independence; they're not even doing anything for the upcoming election.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP's inaction is disgraceful. A betrayal.
You are entitled to your opinion and I retain my own.
DeleteYou speak for yourself Mr Laine. My branch is working hard at preparing lists for telephone canvassing, stuffing envelopes for letters to our known supporters, getting posters printed for supporters windows and gardens.
DeleteWhat have you been doing Rov? I assume you've been working super hard for independence from your post right?
DeleteGot an SNP flyer through my door days ago. Does that count?
DeleteThe Tories continue to refuse to fight for the union; they're not even doing anything for the upcoming election.
DeleteThe tories' inaction is disgusting. A betrayal.
My branch has been active for weeks. What branch are you in Rov?
DeleteThe failure to achieve a majority by just one seat should be a dire warning to any supporter of independence prepared to throw their list vote away on the ABC party, XYZ party or the greens. If I remember correctly the SNP's biggest ever breakthrough was when we stuck up posters with a huge pic of Alex and the slogan "both votes for the SNP". It was true then and even truer now.
ReplyDeleteThe poll found 1% intending to vote for the nonexistent SSP, so we can probably share that point between the SNP, Labour and Greens.
ReplyDeleteSET ENGLAND FREE, VOTE 1 AND 2 S.N.P.
ReplyDelete4% 'other' on the list, which will include ISP, AfI, Restore Scotland, Brexit/UKIP/Reform UK, Communists, Christians, Jacobites etc
ReplyDelete4% for the Greens on the constituency is interesting, given the 0.6% they got in 2016.
ReplyDeleteI know they're standing in at least two seats - Glasgow Kelvin(where they got about 25%) and Edinburgh Central(13%) - but I can't find a list of all their constituency candidates this time.
Watch, because 'others' (mainly Green) were polling up to 7% ahead of 2016 for the constituency. This doesn't happen on the day though as it's rather pointless normally.
Delete46% SNP and 4% green probably means 49% SNP 1 % Green on the day.
4% for the Greens on the constituency is interesting, given the 0.6% they got in 2016.
DeleteI know they're standing in at least two seats - Glasgow Kelvin(where they got about 25%) and Edinburgh Central(13%) - but I can't find a list of all their constituency candidates this time.
I suspect respondents were saying they would vote Green even in constituencies where there will be no Green candidate. If they were getting 4% nationally while standing in only half a dozen seats they'd probably win them all.
Only now are people starting to see the reality of Brexit.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/imports-from-britain-fall-by-two-thirds-in-wake-of-brexit-
Imports from Britain [into Ireland] fall by two-thirds in wake of Brexit
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210312-trade-between-uk-and-eu-plunges-after-brexit-hurting-british-economy
Trade between UK and EU plunges after Brexit, hurting British economy
Soon, brits are going to be allowed out of their homes. They will find the place a mess of boarded up shops and that upwards of 2% of the entire UK population has already left the sinking ship. Not due to covid either, but due to brexit.
Yes support has just hit 39% in Wales. In f'n Wales.
To add...
DeleteTo put this into context, the massive economic destruction of Scotland's economy from 1979 onwards saw a 3% population fall in around a decade. The young and well qualified left in search of a better life. A massive brain drain to feed the S England oil funded boom.
The UK population has fallen upwards of 2% in a year as the young and talented from across the world who can leave so exactly that.
But people won't see the destruction until they emerge from lockdown.
UK is utterly screwed.
Welp, the committee has "convicted" by a majority of 5/4. Guess Wightman voted against her.
ReplyDeleteThe report presumably doesn't specify that she *knowingly* misled parliament, though, or that'd be all over the headlines. So I guess she'll just tough it out
DeleteResult looking pretty much as expected. Didn't knowingly mislead.
DeleteThe difference between giving incorrect information and lying is you do the latter 'knowingly'. Even then, the crux - at least for the public - is whether you did so for malicious purposes.
Over to Hamilton...
English Brexit Bombshell with wings is a dud though by the looks of it.
It is like The Thick of it. That appears to be a bit premature. The Tories are rowing back saying the committee have not finalised the report.
Deletehttps://twitter.com/msm_monitor/status/1372643632302395400
I like Whightman. He's taking no shit on this. He did not shy from his duties. Salmond conspiracy camp loved his questioning of Murrell etc, only to immediately turn on him when he's not playing their ball.
DeleteGood, PR democracy at work. The system is working. Point scoring failing in the face of consensus.
I wasn’t gloating about the other polls; I know the country is effectively divided 50-50.
ReplyDeleteInteresting that the Remain in the UK vs Leave the UK question out today had 57% in favour of remaining in the UK...is it possible to be independent while remaining in the UK?
What’s in a question...a lot!
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteScotland voted 62% Remain in the last referendum on remaining in vs leaving the union.
Delete(f'd up my comment before)
Of course as you know that in that referendum the question posed to Scots, Welsh, English & Northern Irish was ‘Should the UK Leave or Remain’, it wasn’t a Scotland only referendum.
DeleteYes, your confusion highlights my point.
DeleteIf you ask Scots about 'another referendum on remain/leave', you are likely to have people recalling that. If you want to ask about Yes vs No, then do that. Do not mix the two.
The key to a good poll question is do not give the public any reason whatsoever to make a mistake in what's being asked. It totally ruins your result.
The last time Scots voted in a referendum on the union it was leave vs remain. Scotland in union have discovered confusing people here with No vs Yes a few years before helps them come up with shite they want to hear.
If the public have to think for even a second about exactly what's being asked and why, you have f'd up. But then for some people that's nice because they don't like the real answer.
I agree with your point, however that does not in of itself negate the argument for a leave vs remain question (it is after all quite clear).
DeleteFor what it’s worth, I think any second referendum should ask what do you the future constitutional status of Scotland should be? A: Part of the UK, B an independent state. After a yes to A you could then ask about FFA vs status quo.
'it is after all quite clear'
DeleteNot really because Scotland was part of the 'UK' for 100 years before the union of parliaments. The union of the crowns occurred well before the political union. 2 kingdoms were united.
Today, Scotland could be fully independent politically but still part of a united Kingdom with lizzie as queen.
The primary question concerns the parliaments, not the kingdoms.
'Should Scotland be an independent country' was chosen as being as clear as possible. Not perfect, but really hard to misunderstand. Independence days are celebrated the world over etc. Braveheart...The patriot...the independence of former colonies...4th of July... You can't really not understand this.
'Should the UK be an independent country' wasn't used for brexit because it would be a lot of shite as the UK isn't a country, but a union of 3+, and was already independent. No Eu refusals of a section 30, legal threats to challenge the vote and 'we are all one EU nation' crap etc...
Your question likewise falls down as A and B are readily both possible at the same time, as noted.
If a pro-FFA/devo party gets a majority, questions on that are an option.
For now, the 2014 referendum question 'tomorrow' is all we can do. Once we have a date, pollsters can ask about the actual referendum rather than a hypothetical one held suddenly 'tomorrow', which is what people are asked about currently.
That’s a fascinating point that you could be both pro-independence and pro United Kingdom in that way.
ReplyDeleteThe UK is often referred to as a ‘country of countries’, it is quite an amazing status - as there ever been a long lasting scenario like that? The USSR comes close but it didn’t last a century. The EU may or may not last.
I wonder what you would do if the UK govt agreed to another referendum on the condition that the question also refer to the UK (it is after all in the UK govt’s interest to do what it reasonably can to win again). Would you boycott that vote and wait for a 2014 wording?
Anyway sorry I’m rambling...let’s see what the result of the election is, and more importantly, based on what manifesto commitments.
The parties that Scots give a mandate to will get to decide on any referendum. They'd better put an iref in their manifestos if they want to win such a vote; voters don't like being forced into referendums they don't want.
DeleteUnión 2.0, we have to thank the Etonian arrogance of Cameron for the fact that we are again on the cusp of an independence referendum. He was offered the chance of a triple-choice referendum ...... independence, status quo, or greater devolution. He rejected the "greater devolution" option because a) Tories hate devolution of power, and b) because he knew that option would win by a landslide. So he decided to gamble on Scots rejecting independence, and got the fright of his life.
DeleteIt now looks like he made a disastrous choice (from a Tory point of view), because if he'd allowed the "greater devolution" question on the ballot, it would almost certainly have put the question of independence back by twenty years. Instead, Boris is looking down the barrel of the independence gun, which has been well and truly reloaded.....
Further thoughts on that referendum of 2014. If the question of greater devolution HAD been allowed, it is arguable that the UK might still be in the EU. If Scotland had been given greater devolution, then regional English parliaments might have gained traction, and the rising English nationalism (which is now evident with hindsight) might have coalesced round that, rather than being focused on the EU.
DeleteBlunders have been made over the last 7 years.
ReplyDeleteEvery year we're told there will be a campaign, yet nothing ever happens.
Even in the 80s and 90s the SNP had Spring and Autumn campaigns.
It's an indictment of the SNPs strategy that a mass-membership body like Now Scotland is preparing to do the party's job for it.
Party members need to be convinced that the SNP will actually put independence at the forefront of the election.
Many of us are expecting more fudge.
Many of us are sick and tired of folk telling us how bad the SNP are. Many of us are wondering whether the folk that are sowing doubt would prefer to stay in the U.K. Many of us are just wishing that these doom mongers would put a sock in it.......
DeleteRamstam and Alex can you point me in the direction of the draft independence referendum bill that the SNP promised to deliver? I am keen to leave the UK so I would like to examine it. Does it have a proposed date for the referendum.
DeleteCalling Ramstan and Alex - I repeat where can I find the draft referendum bill?
DeleteRamstan and Alex is it a secret - is it held in some secret location somewhere?
DeleteThe Holyrood inquiry was a 5/4 split and was prematurely leaked for maximum effect as the considered outcome will IMO be unconclusive.
ReplyDeleteNo deliberate attempt to "knowingly" mislead parliament.
With both Wings and the BBC running with the same attack story in concert, we can safely conclude the final report will say no deliberate attempt to mislead.
DeleteShe lied today at FMQs. She lied repeatedly. She lied under oath in front of the committee. She conspired with Shirl, Jenn, Liz, and Lezzer to imprison an innocent man. She lied about a, "triple lock manate". Just how many lies are you willing to forgive?
DeleteWhen you lie as much as Smearer Skier it becomes a normal daily task and nothing to feal any shame about. No wonder he feels at home with Sturgeons gang.
DeleteThe Wings and BBC stories were released pretty much identical moments. A common pattern of late.
DeleteQuite. Bath is nearer to Cheltenham than Bathgate.
DeleteIt was a Sky story which Wings and the Beeb picked up shortly afterwards. Thus the common timing. No conspiracy, much as you would like one. Pay attention.
DeleteMandate, not manate. Although a Mandate is something Margaret Hilda Sturgeon has never had. Which adds her wedding vows as just another lie.
ReplyDeleteDoesn’t seem to be a big deal really judging from the silence around other instances:
ReplyDeletehttps://goodlawproject.org/update/johnson-misled-parliament/
In other news, just imagine if woman H had been able to give evidence in the form of an edited video submission to a judge.
ReplyDeleteNo losing it with the jury, attacking the judge and having a breakdown when she couldn't remember which lie she was supposed to be telling.
The purpose of these changes are to increase the conviction rate. Nothing to do with actual justice, but rather feminzai vengeance against men. Which is the reason why humza refused to allow sex to be an aggravator in the HCB, as that would have protected men from hate crimes such as false accusations of rape.
You've got it mixed up. The Scottish Government hate women and want to remove their rights.
DeleteYeah, bloody 'feminzais!'. Want to redefine the meaning of the word woman and let males who self-id as 'trans rapists' in the ladies!
DeleteOr something like that.
Just as I don't need a Committee report to tell he that Johnson is a lying bastard I don't need one to tell me that Sturgeon and her gang are liars.
ReplyDeleteNot sleeping well being up to all hours. Have a lie down.
DeleteThe committee report apparently doesn't say that sturgeon is a liar. To lie, you have to knowingly mislead.
DeleteSmearer Skier (liar since 2014) - you knowingly mislead on this blog all the time.
DeleteOr to use Sturgeon's own impeccable logic: just because a court finds you not proven of mendacity doesn't mean you didn't lie.
DeleteThose standing shoulder to shoulder with Andrew Neil The Spectator the Daily Mail need to have a bloody good look at themselves do they feel better together on the same side as the British establishment .
ReplyDeleteLook at the polls and if you have actually chapped doors you will realise that Nicola is extremely popular with young women under the age of 40 .She is a roll model for that group .
What is basically behind this attack by the bloggers is basic mysoginy .Calling Nicola Mrs Murrell the complainers as Alphabettis gives the game away as a bunch of middle aged men who can't handle a woman being in charge .
To tens of thousands of young woman Nicola having to resign because a man behaved inappropriately is an outrage and I'm warning you now we will get murdered at the polls in May if Nicola goes.In fact I predict the Unionists will end up with a majority .That will be the end of Independence movement .The Yoons will change the law making the UK like Spain and the USA .The Unionist majority in Holyrood will ratify the treaty .They will sing from the rooftops Scots want an end to the constitutional wrangling .
In fact I think you are all going to force her out and the SNP will shatter because those loyal to leadership will never ever forgive MacKaskill Cherry and co .
This all because Alex Salmond got pissed and hit on junior members of his staff.
It's sickening .I have lost every bit of respect for Alex Salmond .In fact he is up their with Gove Johnson in my eyes now an enemy of Scotland
All the wrangling over who did and did not say what to who has taken the discussion well out of most peoples interest range. In that sense NS has ‘won’ because the discussion should be clear and simple - otherwise there is grey and grey should not mean guilt. as Rocksie says, if NS is forced out there will be a lot of angry people with no democratic path to support and the overall winner will not be us in the independence movement.
DeleteRocksie67 - one of the most stupid posts ever. Sturgeon is a fraud who will never deliver independence and is guilty of concoting a plot to send Salmond to jail but you blame Salmond. You Rocksie67 are a joke.
DeleteUnionism for Scotland go away and do something more meaningful with your time like pap shite at the moon or have a game of tig with the buses
DeleteRocksie67 - aw sorry Rocksie you didn't chase me away - can't even say it was a good try. You Rocksie67 are a joke.
DeleteI repeat for you - it happened because Sturgeon wanted it to happen. She is to blame.
Rocksie67, while I heartily disagree with your assessment of Alex Salmond, I'd encourage you not to engage with the poisonous Troll For Scotland. His sole mission is to troll people.
DeleteHe contributes naff all to the discussion, is extremely offensive to others, and never - ever - gives his real opinions in a clear, honest manner.
Do what I do. Completely ignore the sad man.......and watch, as he desperately tries to engage with you. It's fun....😂😂
As far as the electorate goes, the election will be about covid recovery plans, by a considerable margin. I wouldn't imagine any of the parties have the where-with-all to come up with a plan (the SNP don't even have a plan for independence). The result will be even less people bothering to vote in a Holyrood election than the usual poor turnout (55% last time).
ReplyDeleteI doubt that people will be motivated by an election that features untrustworthy chancers with no real plan who are universally obsessed by constitutional musical chairs which is low down on most people's priorities. Even the Greens come across as charlatans.
Brilliant Rocksie67, agree with all you have written. Without Nicola as leader of the SNP you can forget Scottish Independence.
ReplyDeleteThey the unionist coalition don't care about the women who were involved and suffered from the poor behaviour of Mr. Salmond. The unionist coalition only care about getting rid of Nicola as they know full well it is the only way to destroy any hope of Scottish independence probably forever.
Mr. Salmond and blogs like "Bathman's" are in my opinion and many others now enemies in the fight for our Independence. If only Mr. Salmond had been " a better man" as HIS QC said while summing up his defence, then none of this mess would have ever happened.
If Scottish independence really is dependent on Sturgeon, or any one person, it's a lost cause. It wouldn't even be a cause - it would be a personality cult.
DeleteYou're right, Mouse. Independence was, and is, more important than any individual.
DeleteMovements live and die on the decisions of their leaders .The McMAGA's are going to cost us Indy .It's so obvious you really need to well down the rabbit hole of Stu Anon and Craig Murray fantasy world to not grasp why the British establishment are so desperate to get rid of Nicola
Delete"...why the British establishment are so desperate to get rid of Nicola"
DeleteAnd the Scottish public will blame the british establishment for it, which is nice.
Oldpete you are simply a truth denier.
Delete'Opinion polls': Unless they ever come up with something like 45% of respondents saying they will not bother voting, I wouldn't believe any of them because they don't represent reality.
ReplyDeletePolls, correctly, report what those saying they intend to vote are planning to do.
DeleteMeanwhile senior britnat civil servants are still in place in Holyrood.
ReplyDeleteWhen a new leader is in place he or she better start by getting rid off Evans and co. And to hell what Westminster says. For too long the SNP has been only too happy to play by Westminster's rules. Unforgivable.
Ministers can't fire whitehall civil servants. Doesn't matter how much they don't like them; it's not possible to fire someone who isn't employed by you. Even if civil servants were paid by the SNP, there's a matter of employment law too...
DeleteNext you'll be arguing that if Yes parties lose the election, the incoming unionist administration should be able to fire all Yes leaning civil servants and replace these with dyed in the wool unionists. That is what you want right?
All MSPs, sturgeon included, will step down with a week. Sturgeon will cease to be FM, taking on only a caretaker roll until Scots elect a new government, FM and Cabinet in May. She's going; it can't be stopped, and only Scots can put her back at the top.
Our civil service should remain 'impartial' and not be controlled by ministers. However, we need it to be impartially Scottish, not British.
"Our civil service should remain 'impartial' and not be controlled by ministers. However, we need it to be impartially Scottish, not British."
DeleteAnd we'll get that by playing by Westminster's anti-Scottish rules? Aye right.
How do you go about firing people you can't fire?
DeleteSmearer Skier (liar since 2014) - You tell their boss in Whitehall that you have no confidence in them and they get relocated - probably in Evans case to the House of Lords. What did Sturgeon do - Sturgeon gave them a pay rise for following her orders.
DeleteClassic BBC, Wings and the UK media: Conclude on a key story before it is released with the (knowingly) misleading conclusions you want people to make in the hope they ignore the actual news when it comes out.
ReplyDeletehttps://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2021/03/19/the-master-of-lies-johnson-shows-sturgeon-how-to-do-it/
ReplyDeleteMy prediction:
ReplyDeleteSturgeon will step down next week as an MSP and so as FM, retaining only an emergency caretaker role until a new FM is in place. The parliament has 28 days to replace her. As it is closing, there is no time for it to elect a new FM, so a parliamentary election will need to be held.
Scots will then elect a new government who in turn will elect a new FM of Scotland.
There is no way for Sturgeon to get out of this; she must face the people.
In other words a General Election. It will come down to Holyrood V Johnson. He will be on the ballot via his proxies and be a major part of the election.
DeleteThe survey says that 71% of respondents will definitely vote. It's completely unbelievable - there is no way that is representative. The highest ever turnout for a Holyrood election was 59% - and that was 22 years ago. (Yes - I am bored!).
ReplyDeletePollsters target those who vote on a reasonably regular basis. In Scotland, that's ~7 in 10. Those who never vote are not of interest because they never vote and never respond to pollsters.
DeleteTNS used to door chap in Scotland. They actually got the kind of high levels of don't vote that were realistic.
DeleteHowever, once they removed these because they don't vote, they got the same answers as all the other pollsters who didn't waste time and money asking people who never vote what they didn't care about.
As for the last Scottish election, turnout was just 7% less than for the last UK election. It suggests that unionists are less likely to turn out for Scottish elections, which is all good.
As whightman notes, the leak of the committee report is a breach of parliamentary code.
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/andywightman/status/1372845924263866368
To add...
DeleteBBC, Sky, Wings and other assorted English media outlets all ok with this this, unsurprisingly.
And the SNP/SG will do what? Who knows. It won't matter since the britnat establishment and britnat media will just ignore them as always. Britnats treat Scotland with contempt again and the SNP/SG will again continue to follow the same rules which britnats ignore.
DeleteTell that to the Daily Record. Duh.
DeleteLabour have taken the Kelvindale council by election .Not got the figures .This is a seat the SNP should have taken .
ReplyDeleteBritain needs to rein in its terrorist attack dogs.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-nireland/pandoras-box-of-northern-ireland-will-be-opened-unless-eu-changes-brexit-deal-loyalists-warn-idUSKBN2BB1A6
'Pandora's box' of Northern Ireland will be opened unless EU changes Brexit deal: loyalists warn
LONDON (Reuters) - The 1998 Northern Irish peace deal is under threat and a Pandora’s box of protest and political crisis will be opened unless the European Union agrees to significant changes to the Brexit deal, a senior loyalist warned on Friday...
...British terrorist paramilitary groups told Prime Minister Boris Johnson earlier this month that they are temporarily withdrawing support for the peace agreement due to concerns over the Brexit deal.
No wonder Biden was meeting with Ireland on St. Patrick's day reaffirming the special US-Ireland relationship and US support for Ireland regarding the GFA.
ReplyDeleteUK and its terrorists are going rogue; breaking international law and withdrawing from UN peace deals. US might yet have to step in.
Leslie Evans must be breathing a sigh of relief this morning. Up until last night it seemed that the enquiry was going to find that she has failed on multiple counts. Certainly, it appeared, that if she decided not to resign there would be enough in the committee’s findings for a disciplinary panel to find that she had failed to do her job properly and possibly for her to lose her job because of this.
ReplyDeleteBut now, after senior politicians including the First Minister and Leader of the Scottish Greens, stating that any findings from the committee are not based on the facts but will be based on political bias she is in the clear. No disciplinary panel could use biased findings in a disciplinary process. Certainly looks like she has managed to doge a bullet.
Looks like the Greens would not back a motion of no confidence anyway
DeleteI don't think we should be pre-judging in this way. It's wrong. The report isn't out.
DeleteWe'll see in time what it finds on Evans.
The unionist leak is shocking though. Utterly disgraceful breach of the msps code.
Clearly unionists wanted to undermine the committee with the BBC and wings joining in.
Its imiterial what the report finds. We have been told that members of the committee are not basing their findings on the evidence presented but are making findings based on their political bias. Therefore any findings made by the committee can not be considered to be sound.
DeleteOn a side note, I am assuming that any person claiming that members of the committee are not undertaking their role correctly (ie pre - judging witnesses) have evidence to back this up? Its a serious accusation to be making without evidence.
Have you evidence who the leak came from? Or are you also pre judging the leak source without evidence too?
So you are totally dismissing the report now before you've read it?
DeleteI'm definitely not.
If the report does contain judgements on Sturgeon then something is very wrong. It should not contain this as it is party political. MSPs can judge the performance of the service provided to the parliament by Whitehall civil servants. That is what is being looked at here.
Ministers are judged independently. Hamilton is doing that.
I think we can probably make a safe enough bet here that attacks on Sturgeon's conduct in concert with the BBC, Sky, Wings etc are not coming from SNP members.
Also, given that Whightman, the greens / SNP are pointing out that the leak breaks the MSPs code, while unionists / Wings are covering that up, we can make a safe guess who was not the source of the leak.
Can you show me were the remit for the committee only covered the actions of the civil service please. Thanks
DeleteThe remit is online. The committee is to consider & report on the handling of the complaints. It is not charged with passing judgement, simply reporting.
DeleteWe don't need a committee for opposition MSPs to call for members of the government to step down; they do that every day. They can hold votes of confidence if they like.
It's almost child-like for people to imagine that the committee could say 'Sturgeon must resign' and she'd have too, which is what some seem to believe.
Ministerial code breaches can only be judged independently for very obvious reasons. The idea that Murdo Fraser can fairly judge Sturgeon's conduct is ridiculous.
So while the report might contain evidence that someone had made a breach, it should not conclude such; only at most recommend that be investigated independently. It's worrying if the report does contain anything more than facts as seen.
Whether Sturgeon survives for the next 6 days as FM depends on Hamilton alone.
DeleteI believe it's the 25th she ceases to be an MSP and FM, stepping down into an emergency caretaker role only until we elect a new government and FM in May.
Adam , you keep asking Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) for the truth. It's hardly news he tells lies.
DeleteOf course as the committee is party political, it cannot make any judgement on the ministerial code and Sturgeon, nor should it be doing so. It is there to look at the civil service harassment process and what went wrong with that. The leak and the apparent findings contained are both very worrying; an attempt by unionists to bring the committee into disrepute and use it for political purposes, it appears. The BBC aiding in this.
ReplyDeleteThere is a separate, independent investigation by international observer (Irish) James Hamilton into Sturgeon and the code; she referred herself here in response to accusations she broke it. Her position depends on him alone.
The committee could recommend until it's blue in the face that Sturgeon step down but she'd be obliged under parliamentary procedure to ignore that and instigate an investigation into committee breaches of the MSP code and remit.
What the committee concludes on Evans will be passed to whitehall who will make the call there, assuming unionists have not undermined the results sufficiently to give Evans a shot at fighting it based on the findings being called into question.
Smearer Skier (liar since 2014) - non stop lying from Smearer
DeletePhase 4 - Scottish Ministerial Code.
The Inquiry has 4 phases and the fourth is the Ministerial Code. Salmond sent his submission on the Ministerial code to the Inquiry because Phase 4 covers the Ministerial code. Smearer just keeps on lying about the remit of the Inquiry.
Smearer is a blatant liar just like the people he is trying to cover up for.
It's a total disgrace, yes.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thenational.scot/news/19173773.patrick-harvie-says-salmond-inquiry-destroyed-credibility-report-leak/
Patrick Harvie says Salmond inquiry 'destroyed credibility of report' with leak
THE Holyrood committee set up to investigate the Scottish Government's handling of the Alex Salmond case have "destroyed the credibility of their own report" by leaking it to the press, according to Patrick Harvie.
The Scottish Greens co-leader said the group let "party politics over-ride the public interest" as they concluded Nicola Sturgeon gave an “inaccurate” account of meeting with her predecessor during the live investigation.
I think we have our culprits here:
DeletePerhaps more astonishing is that committee members actually giving TV interviews in the midst of their deliberations.
Utter disgrace from unionists and their media here. English / Unionist politicians, their BBC, sky etc should not have reported the leak, but respected democracy and waited for the final report.
ReplyDeleteDisgusting, sneering contempt for the people of Scotland and their parliament.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19174153.harassment-committee-chief-linda-fabiani-blasts-damaging-selective-leaks/
Harassment committee chief Linda Fabiani blasts 'damaging and selective' leaks
THE convener of Holyrood's harassment committee has attacked "damaging" and "selective" leaks of her inquiry to the media - but did not say they were inaccurate.
In a statement released today Linda Fabiani, the SNP MSP, warned members of the inquiry that their code of conduct explicitly required report drafts to be kept confidential until publication.
Great to see her respecting process and not commenting on the validity of the leaks. Nobody should be saying anything here until the report is out.
THE GOOD OLD DAYS OF 2014
ReplyDeleteIn 2014 the Yes movement was united and its political vehicle of choice the SNP wanted independence. We only had to take on the British State, its security services, its political parties, its media, its Head of State, its celebrities like Dan Snow, Eddie Izzard and JK and who couldn't forget Obama as well. Oh and the proud Scots but.....
In 2021 all of the above plus the leadership of the SNP and its deluded followers.
Deluded followers, eh, not sure how this phrase helps anyone
DeleteI don't think 45% Yes was the good days myself. While it was better than I thought realistically possible, I prefer e.g. 51%.
DeleteQuite. Some trolls just keep trolling. The electorate as not the fools that some people like IFS think they are. The witch-hunt is seen for what it is.
Deleteas=are
DeleteUnknown - The witch hunt started in Nov 2017, came to a head in March 2020 when the witches were told to GTF by a jury and still continues to this day using Rape Crisis Scotland. All the witches are still in their nice comfy jobs.
DeleteWhich unknown are you Mr Unknown - are you clueless, arsehole, weatherman or just too stupid to think up and use a moniker.
Insults R Us it seems:) It must be tiring being bitter 24 hours a day.
DeleteAre you married / have a girlfriend IfS?
DeleteIf so, what do they think of your attacks on women, rape crisis Scotland etc?
Skier, there's no need for cruelty. TFS has enough personality problems without you reminding him that he's unloved, unwanted, and unattractive to other human beings.....
DeleteAlex Birnie - the person who won't debate with me but is happy to post baseless insults. Good on you Alex - does it make you feel better about your years (or is it decades) of voting Britnat Labour to have Scotland held captive in the UK. You weren't very clued up then and age hasn't improved you.
DeleteSmearer Skier (liar since 2014) - your post is both a lie and a smear - I am sure you are proud that you got both in the same post.
DeleteThe alphies were shown to to have lied in court and Sandy Brindley is never off the telly smearing Salmond - she of course gets invited on the telly to do her Salmond smearing you being a cheapskate Salmond Smearer can only use SGP. Brindley is in Sturgeons pocket. Do you do your Smearing for free Smearer.
Anyone who "harks back to the good old days of 2014" , has their head firmly up their arse. Although Alex Salmond had done a magnificent job of raising the percentage of Scots who supported independence from thirty something percent to forty five percent, there was still a fair majority of Scots who were unsure about independence.
DeleteAll of us can remember the gut wrench of that night in September.
Some folk rolled up their sleeves, eccapted the challenge from the SNP leadership, and set about trying to convince their neighbours. Ably assisted by some truly astounding gaffes and the overwhelming idiocy of the Tory leadership, many folk have indeed been converted to the cause of independence..... despite the efforts of of a few wormtongue snakes among the yes family, who seem to be doing their best to turn back this march towards independence.
I'm with you, Skier. 2021 looks like it might be the decisive year for us. The polls are showing a steady majority for yes, and TFS, his mate the poison dwarf from Bath, and all the rest of the moaning Minnie's are farting against thunder. Ordinary folk aren't going to listen to the pathetic shite that these blowhards are letting dribble out of their arse.
I believe, (and hope) that the Scottish people are ready to stick two fingers up to Boris, and once that happens, nothing will stop us ....... certainly not the whinging of folk who are doing their utmost to stop Indy happening.......
Alex - what happened to the draft independence bill that was promised more than 6 months ago would be delivered within 6 months. Is Swinney hiding it away with the Inquiry papers.
DeleteCampbell ain't my mate. But you aren't very good on facts are you Alex.
Alex Birnie - time for you to stand up and be counted. Are you happy with Smearer Skier and all the others who continually smear your hero Salmond or are you another of those shameful people who have turned their back on their hero in his hour of need.
DeleteSmearer Skier (liar since 2014) - your memory problem playing up again Smearer or was it one of your other personalities that read my post when I said my wife has a geology hammer as well. My wife, since you ask agrees that the alphy women are despicable creatures - just like you.
DeleteWhen will it be prudent to rejoin the SNP I wonder? I'll give it a week before I decide.
ReplyDeleteCan someone direct me to front page BBC article about the breach of the MSP code and the need for whoever leaked the committee report info to resign?
ReplyDeleteIf it doesn't exist, then British 'democracy' has failed Scots.
In case anyone has forgotten, the misleadingly named 'Salmond' committee was set up to investigate why the Scottish government broke the law, and how it came about that they were bias when investigating alleged sexual assaults. God knows what they were doing trying to investigate sexual assaults in the first place, but there you go.
ReplyDeleteBreaking the law is a lot more serious than breaking a ministerial code of conduct.
Out of interest, have you ever broken the law? Including without intent?
DeleteDoing 65 in a 60... leaving the car on a double yellow line?