The response to the
fundraiser so far has been nothing short of incredible - after less than 48 hours, £5367 of the £7500 target figure has already been raised. I'm grateful to Paul Kavanagh and
The National for helping to publicise it - in fact the running total jumped from £2000 to £3000 within just one hour of
The National's article appearing.
Hopefully we can keep the tempo up, but in the meantime feel free to suggest questions for the poll, because I might be able to get something underway early next week. Unfortunately I've had to switch pre-moderation back on, due to our tiresome troll turning up again after a long gap. But I'll approve comments as soon as I can.
Q. Would you rather join EFTA (like Norway, Iceland) as opposed to the EU if this meant that Scotland had control of its fisheries (through not being in the CFP) could choose to keep the UK Pound, could keep an open border with rUK by signing a customs agreement with rUK, could sign its own trade deals with non-EU countries and would still be in the Single Market? Something along these lines. I suppose you could just ask the first 10 words, but I am unsure if most people know about EFTA (Norway). Or if keeping what EFTA can give an IScot then polish the wording. My thanks.
ReplyDeleteI would like to know what the opinion would be for an indy Scotland...
ReplyDeleteShould Scotland become independent which would you prefer
1. Join EU
2. Join EFTA
3. Join a single market area with rUK
4. Neither of the above
Or something to that effect
I guess the problem with a question like that is respondants might not know what each entails
DeleteApart from political junkies, how many know the ins and outs of EFTA etc? Not that many. You are dealing with the general public who won't have a good grasp on the subject.
DeleteWell, from social media, I have never seen a Scotland so depressed on new year's day. Brexit is now doing it's final job of breaking up the UK.
ReplyDeleteAlready seeing people making up their mind with a new year's resolution to vote Yes.
Nice timing for the covid vaccine. By end March all the vulnerable and everyone over 50 should have had it. So by May we should be down into the lowest risk groups below 40 or lower. Just in time for campaigning season to start up and Scotland going to Europe (for the footie).
I fully expect we'll have polls showing >60% starting to crop up shortly.
Should Scotland be 1. A republic 2. Retain the Queen as head of state 3. Have a modified (Norwegian-style) monarchy, inviting someone like Lesley Riddoch to be head of state.
ReplyDeleteShould Scotland demand the removal of nukes from Scottish waters within 1. Five years 2. Five months 3. Five days 4. Five hours 6. Start dismantling them ourselves immediately.
1. Can you include isp on list
ReplyDelete2. Can you control for demographics, region where people live and recalled wm vote
3. Can you ask if section 30 refused whether people would support or not any of the following actions
A. Sg non legally binding consultative referee endum
B. Removal of mps from wm
C. Mps at wm remain but do not engage constructively and use forum to make parliament unworkable
D. Other (I can provide details if you're interested as needs careful spec)..
Thanks james
As well as asking the standard independence question, how about something along the lines of “If the SNP had a manifesto commitment that receiving over 50% of the votes on the regional list, it would be a mandate for independence without a referendum, how would you vote?”
ReplyDeleteI would vote SNP.
DeleteSupplementary questions:
ReplyDelete1. Should Westminster respect the result of *any* independence referendum called by the Scottish government?
We need momentum on this question for the post-referendum battle, and we'd get well over 60% yes on it.
2. If you oppose independence, would you refuse to vote in an independence referendum that did not have Westminster approval?
Happy New Year, everyone.
Well done James, have a good polling new year.
ReplyDeleteHaving problems donating. Anybody else?
ReplyDeleteI think the efta/eu thing is interesting, though they are not mutually exclusive. IScot could join efta first, keep our own currency still benefit from single mkt access and take our time over considering eu membership.
ReplyDeleteEngland effectively "Owns" Scotland and Wales NI too because it has 85% of the UK voters.
ReplyDeleteYou could ask the question "considering the different sizes of the 4 UK nations, do you think the UK is a fair and equal union"
Another question could be "Should all taxes and revenues collected in Scotland come under the democratic control of the Scottish Parliament"
I second the question on being a republic or keeping the monarchy. I would be very interested in the answer to that.
ReplyDeleteThe EU/EFTA question is interesting but I have serious doubts enough people know enough about EFTA for it to be meaningful. Maybe ask if the EU taking a hard line on fishing might mean deciding not to join (although phrased better than that).
I aye chuckle at the "keep the monarchy" idea.
DeleteIf Scotland becomes a Republic the monarchy will still exist in England/UK.
Only England itself can actually end the monarchy which is in all honesty the English Royal family.
We haven't had a Scottish monarchy since 1603 and realistically that's the end of it.
The head of State has to have 100% undivided loyalty to Scotland alone, which is impossible with a monarch resident "abroad".
Should Holyrood 2021 be an Indy plebsicite? If so, would you cast a pro-Indy Yes vote through declared parties?
ReplyDeleteThis question’s a bit cheeky, but would be fascinating. How about testing the notorious “Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom?” wording versus the standard 2014 “Should Scotland be an independent country?” by testing them on subgroups of the poll? Pollsters do stuff like that all the time. They can split the overall sample in two, and ask each half a different one of those questions. The result is an insight into how much this “Remain” Jedi mind trick actually affects the voters, albeit with higher error margins due to reduced sample size.
ReplyDeleteI point out that the other side watches these polls, of course. If we deliver evidence their preferred question wording doesn’t make a notable difference, they have less reason to keep pushing for it. And if it does give anti-independence a boost? Then we have a number to subtract from their polls!
If you were splitting the sample, you could run other alternate questions, too. Plan B options come to mind.
I’d test support for independent Scottish EU membership vs. EFTA etc. by simply testing them like for like against the status quo. Things get complex real quick for the poll respondents and analysis when there’s many moving parts.
Martin Keatings''Plan B' seems a sensible one that might help bridge the gap between the section 30 crew and the plebiscite loyalists:
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/MartinJKeatings/status/1345009409097945090
A question based on this might work, although I'm unsure how it could be kept concise for a poll.
A question for James: do all the pollsters still adjust/weight the results based on 2014 referendum vote?
ReplyDeletePresumably 7 years AFTER the 2014 referendum took place, there will be a high incidence of false recall, which could perhaps muddy the result enough to be significant?
How long do pollsters generally use past voting recollection for previous elections?