Sunday, August 16, 2020

21% of the electorate is more than enough to win seats in a proportional system

Just to deal briefly with the Herald piece from the other day suggesting that Alex Salmond's hopes of regaining control of the SNP were "forlorn" in the wake of a poll showing that 21% of respondents have a favourable view of him, and 63% have an unfavourable view.  There are two obvious points: firstly, I'm not aware of any suggestion that Alex Salmond actually wants to become SNP leader again, so as far as any leadership change is concerned, he'd be more interested in the personal ratings of whoever the alternative leader might be.  Secondly, there's also the option of a new Salmond-led party, and under a proportional representation system 21% approval is plenty enough to win seats, as long as enough of those people are enthusiastic enough.  I haven't changed my view that a Salmond party would probably gain some representation in Holyrood.
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14 comments:

  1. Julia GibbAugust 16, 2020 at 10:56 AM

    The theory behind having a list party remains valid IF we have ONE clear Party, IF we have a HOUSEHOLD NAME leading that party and IF it is organised to maximise the vote in key regional areas.

    At the moment the current mish mash only helps the Unionists.

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    1. ramstamAugust 16, 2020 at 3:55 PM

      Excellent point Julia.
      There's no sign at the moment of anyone who has any public profile coming forward.
      The emerging feeling is that the SNP will retain most support for the list. Time to put up or shut up?

      Delete
    2. Mike LothianAugust 18, 2020 at 12:51 AM

      If people really want to split their vote (like I do - for disclosure) why not pick the already existing and seat winning Scottish Greens? They already have more seats than the LibDems and I'm sure would appreciate the extra votes

      Delete
  2. AlasdairAugust 16, 2020 at 11:08 AM

    Ihave never met or seen Mr Salmond in person and while he might well have a sense of grievance and a strong conceit of himself, I think his driving ambition is to achieve independence for Scotland. So, I do not think he will take actions which jeopardise that.

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    1. BillfromBostonAugust 17, 2020 at 2:56 AM

      For all practical purposes there is no significant SNP or significant Independence movement without Salmond. His appearances abroad were crucial. He has been motivated since he saw the real financials of how Scotland is a revenue machine for England to obtain independence. I didn't realize he took a vow of poverty or that the SNP had non disclosure agreements. He is owed an apology.failure to give him one is stupid.

      Delete
  3. MouseAugust 16, 2020 at 11:41 AM

    Alexander Salmond's over-riding ambition is currently to write a book and flog it. Hopefully it might be less dreary than his last output - hope is the last to die. Currently, he looks even creepier then he was before gropegate. The scotnationalist twitterati doesn't even vaguely jive with most people's opinion of the creep.

    In the meantime we have a government that only does public relations well. They convinced a nation of fools that doing astoundingly bad and mad public health measures is really good. The Vocational Qualification board is perfect / shite, depending on what the Daily Record, the Scottish Sun, and the Daily Mail says.

    Kids can sit 2, away from each other, or elbow to elbow depending on what the Daily Record, the Scottish Sun, and the Daily Mail says.

    Face coverings are useless / face coverings are compulsory.

    Tests are good / useless / good....

    Tennants lager makes you immune....

    The level of scrutiny by the media in Scotland has been pathetic.

    And we as a political voting population have been persuaded to be absolutely terrified of change by means of advertising. Yes men. Yes women.

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    1. ejfjAugust 16, 2020 at 2:37 PM

      Coo. Did you write all that yourself?

      Delete
    2. ramstamAugust 16, 2020 at 3:59 PM

      I'm willing to try the lager mind. Is it just Tennents or we're you just being patriotic.

      Delete
    3. BillfromBostonAugust 17, 2020 at 2:59 AM

      So again everyone convicted is guilty. Everyone found innocent us guilty. Do the police, prosecuters, and media let you wear knee- pads ?? I hope so.

      Delete
  4. GeocyperAugust 16, 2020 at 2:15 PM

    Another tollie folks, we Scots know what to do with tollies.

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  5. GrahamAugust 17, 2020 at 10:18 AM

    Would personal approval transfer directly to votes though?
    I seriously doubt it.
    The indylistparty idea has been proven time and again to be a nonsense.
    WoS 23Aug2015 "what we’ve learned is that even an unimaginably huge tactical list vote will likely at best produce a net gain of a couple of seats for Yes/left parties, and at worst could cost the SNP some seats and perhaps even their majority"
    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ams-for-lazy-people/

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  6. James KellyAugust 17, 2020 at 10:23 AM

    "Would personal approval transfer directly to votes though?"

    In the case of Alex Salmond, it probably would, yes, at least to some extent. To a big enough extent to win seats, which is the salient point.

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  7. GrahamAugust 18, 2020 at 12:23 AM

    I don't think any indylistparty, even one headed by AS, could win any seats.
    Do I like AS? Yes, I admire his immense contribution to indy cause.
    Would I vote for an AS indylist party? Hell will freeze over first.

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