tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post8973465544305467419..comments2024-03-29T05:53:21.060+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: The enthusiasm gap, part twoJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-23678218052612484542014-09-27T07:12:20.687+01:002014-09-27T07:12:20.687+01:00What is your reason for concluding that No voters,...What is your reason for concluding that No voters, and specifically the 25% of No voters who told Ashcroft they were voting No for more powers, aren't "that bothered" about it? What is the mystical significance of the 60% figure? Why, for example, would it not be rational to call a snap referendum on 56%?James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-64716886572652567892014-09-26T17:52:05.708+01:002014-09-26T17:52:05.708+01:00My position on another referendum not being called...My position on another referendum not being called for a while is:<br /><br />After a 2 (3?) year long campaign, No won comfortably with half a million more votes than Yes. This is (almost) the high water mark of Yes support, ever.<br /><br />The Vow looms large in thwarted Yes voters' minds, but IMO, most No voters aren't *that* bothered by more powers not arriving.<br /><br />That laundry list of stuff (Iraq, Bliar, austerity, etc) that occupies the noisy lefty wing of Yes campaign is perfidious Westminster stuff that has all happened in the past and people still voted No.<br /><br />We should probably wait until independence support is up at 60% before calling a short-campaign referendum.commentorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10321173541321374705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-90716702878704318682014-09-26T00:44:52.155+01:002014-09-26T00:44:52.155+01:00If the UK is based on a pooling and sharing model,...If the UK is based on a pooling and sharing model, then what is the objection to devolving oil / energy / crown estate?<br /><br />I can understand the argument for volatility under independence, but not so much if we are remaining in the UK..<br /><br />Surely in 'good' years, some transfers of money would be made to the UK parliament.<br /><br />And in 'bad' years, transfers could come the other way.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-82549042079114867102014-09-25T23:18:09.265+01:002014-09-25T23:18:09.265+01:00@ cynicalHighlander:
"Called winning in the ...@ cynicalHighlander:<br /><br />"Called winning in the short term and why the UK has been at war for the last hundred years around the world."<br /><br />Very well put. <br /><br />Seems to come down to being incapable of dealing with others as equals. Perhaps it's 'the bully syndrome'?Justin Kenrickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05371269693334856586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-31477604354201348702014-09-25T23:14:33.886+01:002014-09-25T23:14:33.886+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.Justin Kenrickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05371269693334856586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-4035902108504616712014-09-25T22:53:43.472+01:002014-09-25T22:53:43.472+01:00We need full fiscal autonomy as a minimum requirem...We need full fiscal autonomy as a minimum requirement. All revenues raised in Scotland to stay here.<br /><br />The recent intake of members should drive down the average age of the SNP membership. Ironic that the average age I would suspect to be more over 55 before the influx. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-62329367546824581632014-09-25T22:24:48.359+01:002014-09-25T22:24:48.359+01:00Or rather I'd expect the referendum to not be ...<i>Or rather I'd expect the referendum to not be called due to lack of support.</i><br /><br />Strange thought when one looks around Labour support in Scotland is in free fall whilst support for indy parties is growing c2.5 per min for the SNP alone and Yes groups are expanding as more people come onboard.<br /><br />The Vow is increasingly being seen as a spoiler and those No voters don't like dirty underhand tricks being used to con them.<br /><br />Let's see what is on the cards now, interest rate rises BoE, sudden increase in that volatile oil, another invasion of Iraq, a cut in winter fuel allowance, a cap on child benefit and more. This is what the No voters were told in Indy, liars the lot of them. cynicalHighlanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06034325908473006163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-33982903657190997962014-09-25T21:52:29.368+01:002014-09-25T21:52:29.368+01:00IMO gradualism is always the more successful route...IMO gradualism is always the more successful route rather than hoping that WM precipitates a crisis that causes the Scottish people to leap for independence. This is because Scottish objections to independence are based on percieved risk. Failed "Vow delivery" doesn't make a second indyref less of a leap, so I'd expect another No. Or rather I'd expect the referendum to not be called due to lack of support.commentorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10321173541321374705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-70321030827478229492014-09-25T21:22:24.395+01:002014-09-25T21:22:24.395+01:00I don't want to settle for Devo Max, as Triden...I don't want to settle for Devo Max, as Trident on Scottish soil and still being dragged into illegal wars are the massive downsides of settling for this option. So, I fervently hope that "The Vow" turns out to be as empty and false as it first appeared to be. That could lead to another referendum in 2020.Clash City Rockernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-28945930440759337402014-09-25T20:45:08.358+01:002014-09-25T20:45:08.358+01:00Oil is a declining resource and volatile; you do n...<i>Oil is a declining resource and volatile; you do not want to use it to fund public spending</i> ((C) BetterTogether)<br /><br />I imagine the Scottish public will question why Westminster is reluctant to hand it over...<br /><br />SNP have pages and pages of quotes from unionists on this. Scottish_Skiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-24594212497615049862014-09-25T19:29:16.843+01:002014-09-25T19:29:16.843+01:00Full fiscal autonomy for Scotland
No mention of o...<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Full_fiscal_autonomy_for_Scotland" rel="nofollow">Full fiscal autonomy for Scotland</a><br /><br />No mention of oil revenues though which could be a stumbling block.<br /><br />Constitutionally if it is just for Scotland will create turmoil across the remainder of the UK which is why those three leaders vow puts another referendum on the way as time is against them.<br /><br />Called winning in the short term and why the UK has been at war for the last hundred years around the world.cynicalHighlanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06034325908473006163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-9432435991947641022014-09-25T19:03:50.582+01:002014-09-25T19:03:50.582+01:00James, I think the SNP have to go for the maximum ...James, I think the SNP have to go for the maximum amount of power for Holyrood in the UK system, which is Devo max (and funnily enough) the term the MSM were using in the last week of the referendum campaign). If by some miracle this was somehow achieved, I would imagine a referendum on independence would be off the agenda for at least 10 years, possibly more. There would be so many new powers devolved, and issues that could be tackled, that it would be off the agenda for ages.<br /><br />I don't see this happening at all. It would be the most suitable one. However, SLAB are only interested in their MPs, and it would be political suicide for them, and the Tories would have to give us our share of the oil revenues. If the offer of more powers is not close to Devo max, then the SNP would probably grudgingly accept it (like a Calman 2), but a independence referendum would still be considered in the near future, a la 2011. <br /><br />So basically, if the offer is Devo max or close to it, I reckon an independence referendum would be off the agenda for a considerable time. If it is not even close, and then a referendum on the EU takes place, it would still be on the agenda imo. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-57161687855377203622014-09-25T18:28:31.731+01:002014-09-25T18:28:31.731+01:00Sounds like I overdid the wet blanket act - actual...Sounds like I overdid the wet blanket act - actually I think you're right that there's a chance of differentially higher Yes voter turnout due to the 'enthusiasm' factor that could boost the SNP vote. And also, the referendum could just have made a lot of Labour people too sickened to vote for them. Gotta be careful not to provoke No voters into "voting their indyref vote" though.commentorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10321173541321374705noreply@blogger.com