tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post863849011088136718..comments2024-03-29T14:08:32.098+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: And make that a hat-trick - yet again, the SNP and Plaid are just 1% behind the Lib Dems in a Britain-wide YouGov pollJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-4870303939377183282014-12-11T09:34:41.347+00:002014-12-11T09:34:41.347+00:00You guys should look up the 2011 electoral map.......You guys should look up the 2011 electoral map....only labour stop it being a tory border....not sure what the boundary changes are for westminster mind youchalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-20816648458711415192014-12-10T15:54:25.601+00:002014-12-10T15:54:25.601+00:00I would hope not, but that's exactly the shive...I would hope not, but that's exactly the shiver that runs up my spine when I see an electoral map with the Tories taking all three southern seats.<br /><br />I'd only have to move five miles in either direction to get into an SNP seat in that event, but I like where I live now.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-84661661689542736392014-12-10T15:51:11.629+00:002014-12-10T15:51:11.629+00:00Labour would love that. Losing Scotland, except th...Labour would love that. Losing Scotland, except the only bits that vote Tory.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-37978661890355223142014-12-10T13:04:52.016+00:002014-12-10T13:04:52.016+00:00Rolfe is right, the political map makes it look li...Rolfe is right, the political map makes it look like Scotland doesn't start until the Central Belt. And with my tinfoil hat very firmly on, a unionist majority in the borders could tempt the UK into experimenting with partition in the event of independence.Craig Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-22717933315345870342014-12-10T10:28:18.747+00:002014-12-10T10:28:18.747+00:00I'd expect there to be a strong anti-incumbenc...I'd expect there to be a strong anti-incumbency effect in Inverness. That might not be the case with less well known Lib Dem MPs.keatonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-38948092781615174232014-12-10T10:16:16.913+00:002014-12-10T10:16:16.913+00:00What might give us a clue about Lib Dem performanc...What might give us a clue about Lib Dem performance is the constituency poll from May of Danny Alexander's seat. The Lib Dems are have totally imploded, on 16% down from 41%. It may not be the same story in every Lib Dem seat, but Danny being high profile hasn't helped him. <br /><br />The poll also shown SNP benefiting the most, rising from 19% to 32%, giving them a 7% lead over Labour. Of course that was pre referendum, it would probably be logical to assume the SNP lead is bigger now.Calumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18298701198248993553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-84102924043434809012014-12-10T07:17:08.308+00:002014-12-10T07:17:08.308+00:00I'd be shocked if Kennedy lost his seat. He tr...I'd be shocked if Kennedy lost his seat. He truly does have s massive personal following. As already stated Carmichael will also be re-elected. I'd also make a case for Moore as well. In terms of Better Together members he was one of the few to come out of the campaign dignity intact IMO. Also the only other show in town in his seat is the Tories. Call me old fashioned but I can not bring myself to wanting to see them win. <br /><br />All other LD seats will be lost however IMO. Edinburgh West will be very interesting, genuine 4 horse race there.Alastair Hutchisonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-57820364606771550532014-12-10T00:34:16.896+00:002014-12-10T00:34:16.896+00:00On paper, his seat wouldn't quite fall on the ...On paper, his seat wouldn't quite fall on the Lib Dem-to-SNP swing suggested by the latest Poll of Polls, but it would be very close. You'd then have to factor in two contradictory points - a ) the swing is likely to be bigger where the Lib Dems are starting from a higher base, and b) Kennedy's personal vote.<br /><br />The conventional wisdom is that he'll hold on, but as 1997 and 2011 proved, it's worth being cautious about conventional wisdom when a tsunami is on its way.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-90902381484481641862014-12-09T23:57:24.050+00:002014-12-09T23:57:24.050+00:00Thoughts on Charlie Kennedy's chances? My form...Thoughts on Charlie Kennedy's chances? My former constituency so I know he's had a strong personal following in the past (that also helped Danny Alexander get in next door unfortunately) but it could well crumble. I know my folks for one will be deserting him for SNP but to be honest I still think he's one of the good guys so torn over whether I'd like to see him out... Callumnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-90723479290188292422014-12-09T23:25:18.323+00:002014-12-09T23:25:18.323+00:00Yeah but it sure makes the map look ugly. I'd...Yeah but it sure makes the map look ugly. I'd rather they won the tiniest seats there are, in terms of floor space!Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-81128458202851095962014-12-09T23:07:07.992+00:002014-12-09T23:07:07.992+00:00The demographics in the three most southern seats ...The demographics in the three most southern seats are very different to the rest of Scotland though.... Surely it's better to have Tory seats concentrated than spread throughout Scotland. They are in with a good chance in West Aberdeenshire. Calumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18298701198248993553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-73131165585180876312014-12-09T18:32:15.959+00:002014-12-09T18:32:15.959+00:00Sigh. Should I just pack away my campaigning shoe...Sigh. Should I just pack away my campaigning shoes then? (I'm in Mundell's seat.)<br /><br />You could well be right of course. The thing that annoys me about that scenario is that it splashes a huge blue area across the south of Scotland, making it look as if Scotland proper doesn't start till the Southern Uplands watershed at best. It's only three seats, but it <i>looks</i> so bad. I do hope the SNP can sneak one of them.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-85425935130231680182014-12-09T16:36:05.553+00:002014-12-09T16:36:05.553+00:00I agree with you assessment of the Lib Dems. Munde...I agree with you assessment of the Lib Dems. Mundell will hold on and the Tories will gain Moore's seat. I think they're also in with a shot of Dumfries and Galloway and maybe West Aberdeenshire. Calumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18298701198248993553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-19898047656180056282014-12-09T15:41:10.008+00:002014-12-09T15:41:10.008+00:00"Seems unlikely to me that SNP + PC would ove...<i>"Seems unlikely to me that SNP + PC would overtake the Lib Dems, unless the Lib Dems collapse completely."</i><br /><br />Three of the last four YouGov polls have had the SNP/Plaid on either 5% or 6%. All four have had the Lib Dems on either 6% or 7%. If that becomes an established pattern (admittedly a big if), it's almost inevitable there'll eventually be a poll that has the SNP/Plaid drawing level with the Lib Dems, and probably the odd outlying one with them 1% ahead.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-36378896523776021652014-12-09T13:51:26.384+00:002014-12-09T13:51:26.384+00:00It's my opinion that the LibDems will be limit...It's my opinion that the LibDems will be limited to only Carmichael's island seat. Bob Smith will probably lose but that could be a 3-cornered scrap with the Tories in with a shout as well as the SNP – Bob's personal vote should not be underestimated. I can see Mundell losing but Michael Moore will probably succumb to a Tory.Phil Lawrencehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12929452799095590860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-89017460536208280822014-12-09T12:12:41.012+00:002014-12-09T12:12:41.012+00:00If the SNP won over 30 seats next May, then that w...If the SNP won over 30 seats next May, then that would be a brilliant result. Due to the influence of MSM and UK wide broadcasting, I would be very surprised if there was a complete Labour meltdown in Scotland. The Liberal Democrat vote will likely collapse due to the coalition government and austerity. They will probably be reduced to a few seats. The Tories may gain a few seats, and I would be very surprised if Labour did not win at least 15 seats.muttley79noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-742020413123877292014-12-09T11:49:27.530+00:002014-12-09T11:49:27.530+00:00Aye well all good so far,just hope it stays this w...Aye well all good so far,just hope it stays this way until after the May election."sing a son" ! "Freedom come,Freedom go,Freedom never stayed long (just for a day)Charles O'Brien.https://www.blogger.com/profile/10778040983298966024noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-79062959798874117792014-12-09T11:43:41.343+00:002014-12-09T11:43:41.343+00:00The Scottish subsample of that YouGov poll would s...The Scottish subsample of that YouGov poll would see both Margaret Curran and Douglas Alexander tipped out of Westminster if the swing was uniform. Ah, wishful thinking...Phil Lawrencehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12929452799095590860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-39205127073897309912014-12-09T10:09:34.072+00:002014-12-09T10:09:34.072+00:00Seems unlikely to me that SNP + PC would overtake ...Seems unlikely to me that SNP + PC would overtake the Lib Dems, unless the Lib Dems collapse completely. The SNP are at or are near the limit of their support (40-45%). No party has won 50% of the vote in Scotland since the Unionists (Tories) in the mid-1950s. Plaid could maybe do better, particularly in WM polls (ITV Wales poll yesterday put them on 11%), but even if they increased by (say) 10 points this would only add a fraction of 1% to the SNP/PC total.<br /><br />Also interesting to note from the Welsh polling the weakness of support for devolution of income tax.<br /><br />http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2014-12-09/itv-poll/<br /><br />British Election Study data has been released (this is surveyed by YouGov): SNP 43, Lab 24, Con 17, LD 4, UKIP 6 and Green 5.Jamesnoreply@blogger.com