tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post8524179661143833846..comments2024-03-28T18:33:36.687+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Final YouGov poll puts Yes just 2% away from victoryJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger108125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-60342313967116074912014-09-20T14:40:07.077+01:002014-09-20T14:40:07.077+01:00James
Keep up the good work. I have donated and w...James<br /><br />Keep up the good work. I have donated and will do so again. I admire your commitment to a free press, even to the extent of allowing obnoxious characters to disparage you so often. Don't let them get to you and remember there are far more of us than there are of them.AndyCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-55388225169249838692014-09-18T12:47:31.499+01:002014-09-18T12:47:31.499+01:00@ Gordon Innes,
Don't be surprised, as YouGov...@ Gordon Innes,<br /><br />Don't be surprised, as YouGov is a polling company that will participate in any number of polls, some if not most of them non political.<br /><br />They will need people from all walks of life to comment on different areas of interest, as it's pointless asking people who never go overseas on holiday, what airline they prefer etc.<br /><br />The people they choose to participate in their polls will be the ones who have indicated an interest in doing political polling.Patrick Rodennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-88289292159513814352014-09-18T12:43:12.398+01:002014-09-18T12:43:12.398+01:00Ha, just read a tweet from a guy who said his fath...Ha, just read a tweet from a guy who said his father (a No voter)had just told him he had voted Yes<br /><br />He told his son he had hovered his pencil over the No box, "BUT IT JUDT DIDN'T FEEL RIGHT" so he voted YES!!!<br /><br />This is happening all over Scotland today, because voting No just isn't right!Patrick Rodennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-9146602456593273482014-09-18T12:31:14.698+01:002014-09-18T12:31:14.698+01:00Polling convergence is herd instinct in action.
K...Polling convergence is herd instinct in action.<br /><br />Kellner taked with BBC local radio in England yesterday: admitted it could be a Waterloo for polling co.s; I genuinely felt he really did not know and was worried that incorrect weighting; late switchers and missing groupings could easily be sufficient to make them look stupid as either side may be much higher than predicted. He also claimed they had 40,000 Scots residents on their books - much higher than I expected.Gordon Innesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-88693394208199107602014-09-18T11:38:27.475+01:002014-09-18T11:38:27.475+01:00Pipers walking people to the polling stations in E...Pipers walking people to the polling stations in Edinburgh<br /><br />So my sister and colleague are telling me?chalksnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-83730798185992731682014-09-18T11:03:51.741+01:002014-09-18T11:03:51.741+01:00@Patrick Roden, thanks for that thoughtful analysi...@Patrick Roden, thanks for that thoughtful analysis. And for politics...it does seem more real than smoke.Georgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-23134025351379659192014-09-18T09:46:03.373+01:002014-09-18T09:46:03.373+01:00Just to add my thanks to you James, you have done ...Just to add my thanks to you James, you have done more to keep me 'sane' (ish) than you will ever know! <br /><br />It was reported last week that Labours canvasing stats had them predicting a 54% No vote in Dundee!!!<br /><br />The way I see this is, as I drive around Dundee I see Flags & banners on cars and in windows at a ratio of about 98/2 in favour of Yes.<br /><br />Now I don't expect Dundee's Yes vote to be 98%, but I do wonder what the psychology of voters is that leads the Yes voter to display their support openly but no to keep their support for No quiet. <br /><br />It should be borne in mind that we have all saw incidents of vandalism against Yes vehicles/premises, but still the people keep displaying their support.<br /><br />It seems to me that people who do this will certainly get out and vote.<br /><br />But does this mean there is just a shy No vote? <br /><br />I don't think the word 'shy' explains it, I think the word ashamed or embarrassed explains their feelings better.<br /><br />My reasons for this is simple, In listening to conversations it is telling how hard No campaigners/voters and leaders will justify themselves by stating that they are proud Scots but... or it's not that I'm against independence it's just that I think 'Now is not the best time' <br /><br />Anyone involved in the campaign will have heard this 9 and more)repeatedly.<br /><br />As someone who's profession has been in mental health, I find this very telling because it shows clearly that people who are No voters are not comfortable with themselves and feel that their own personal interests are in contrast to the interests of their nation and fellow citizens.<br /><br />If you have been on twitter as I have you will have saw so many (hundreds) of people saying that they had been No up until the past week/fortnight, but have now 'Thought about it' and decided to vote Yes.<br /><br />These people for the most part, when they say they have thought about it, are telling us something important. you see they are not thinking about it for the first time or else they would not have been NO voters, what is happening is they have had this internal contradiction like most No's but have perhaps had an incident (Cameron Visit) or perhaps they have had a conversation that has brought home to them that a No vote will damage a friend relative, and this has tipped them to Yes.<br /><br />My belief is that for every person who is switching from No to Yes there will also be one or two No voters who will simply not vote, as they will not be able to deal with the internal conflict of voting against Scotland.<br /><br />So my advice is get yourself down to Lidl or Aldi and order your carry out because we are gona be having a party on Friday.<br /><br /><br /><br />Patrick Rodennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-17372754782175529072014-09-18T09:22:14.699+01:002014-09-18T09:22:14.699+01:00ps (O/T) Can't wait for Scotland's first E...ps (O/T) Can't wait for Scotland's first Eurovision entry, Vienna 2015. Michelle McManus anyone?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09607318279812926091noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-40878438252699318882014-09-18T09:18:52.038+01:002014-09-18T09:18:52.038+01:00Thanks from me too James. I'm a bit of a late ...Thanks from me too James. I'm a bit of a late arrival on here, but it has been a fantastic way of keeping up to date with what's happening back home. If only Australian politics were this exciting, but sadly they are as dull as dishwater. Mind you, I don't think my ticker could handle a referendum like this one every day! I'm a complete nervous wreck :-( You've done Scotland proud James. Thanks once again. <br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09607318279812926091noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-59290223513611058372014-09-18T08:50:25.794+01:002014-09-18T08:50:25.794+01:00This is the first comment I've left on this bl...This is the first comment I've left on this blog and I too would like to thank James for making psephology accessible and compelling :)Oliver Pirienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-65156476144909221202014-09-18T08:28:04.602+01:002014-09-18T08:28:04.602+01:00I would just like to post a big heartfelt THANK-YO...I would just like to post a big heartfelt THANK-YOU to James for all his hard work in producing this wonderful and informative blog! A big thanks to to all the other posters too. Even the trolls have added some additional spice and humour! smerralhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00485958340415489602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-82504882149829071442014-09-18T03:14:39.319+01:002014-09-18T03:14:39.319+01:00We ALL knew Andy Murray was a true Scots patriot, ...We ALL knew Andy Murray was a true Scots patriot, not like those phoney ''patriotic '' Scots of the Bitter Together Campaign who want their country governed by London. But he had to be careful what he said because of the vitriol of the London press and media.<br /><br />''Huge day for Scotland today! no campaign negativity last few days totally swayed my view on it. excited to see the outcome. lets do this! ''<br /><br />https://twitter.com/andy_murrayDavid Brimsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-68533942164963932402014-09-18T02:50:35.072+01:002014-09-18T02:50:35.072+01:00Andy Murray statement on twitter is a great boost....Andy Murray statement on twitter is a great boost.<br /><br />Too late for the papers, but will be all over facebook tomorrow.<br /><br />Carefully worded, but no doubt as to the sentiment.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-90263618426440008872014-09-18T02:43:24.663+01:002014-09-18T02:43:24.663+01:00Patrick Wintour @patrickwintour · 14h
Cameron a... Patrick Wintour @patrickwintour · 14h<br /><br />Cameron at Downing Street party says "after the events I have been facing over the last few days assassination would be a welcome release".Niallnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-26535882807195035892014-09-18T02:42:07.320+01:002014-09-18T02:42:07.320+01:00What do you think? You get three guesses, and the ...What do you think? You get three guesses, and the first two don't count.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-6588148206432982572014-09-18T02:24:41.043+01:002014-09-18T02:24:41.043+01:00Another straw in the wind. An acquaintance posted ...Another straw in the wind. An acquaintance posted predictions on FB for the result in each region. This guy is an English Labour activist who came up here for the last week to help out the No campaign. I noticed that he was calling City of Edinburgh a Yes, but Glasgow a No.<br /><br />I queried this rather strange set of predictions and was told that they were based on Labour's internal numbers, and his own experience of travelling around Scotland.<br /><br />I ask myself this: is Edinburgh really going to vote Yes while Glasgow votes No?<br /><br />Or are Labour's internal numbers total crap?Niallnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-41460125919393590392014-09-18T02:02:21.152+01:002014-09-18T02:02:21.152+01:00 less than 5 hours before we vote to get our cou... less than 5 hours before we vote to get our country back!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-51993380664627576182014-09-18T01:55:40.684+01:002014-09-18T01:55:40.684+01:00Walking about Glasgow tonight was instructive. A t...Walking about Glasgow tonight was instructive. A tale of two campaigns.<br /><br />I stopped by the one group of No activists (up against 3-4 Yes groups) on Buchanan St intending to ask some questions. One was talking to a group of Asian women. I overheard her say 'If we vote for independence you will lose your British passports and be given Scottish passports instead'. This is of course a lie, we cannot be stripped of British citizenship against our will if there is a Yes vote.<br /><br />I spoke up to protest that this was a lie and challenged the co-ordinator to correct it. He refused to do so, saying 'You correct it if you want' and 'I'm just a volunteer, it's not my job to correct her'. However he also refused to repeat the lie, weaselling 'I would rephrase that statement: if you want a British passport you should support British institutions'.<br /><br />I told them both they should be ashamed of themselves. Fortunately the Asian women from the few words they said to me looked like they were not buying it.<br /><br />Walk away feeling deeply angry. Then I come upon the party in George Square. Magic. Yes people everywhere. This does not feel like a city about to vote No.<br /><br />I was never a nationalist, I don't unequivocally see myself as Scottish or see being Scottish as somehow 'different'. However, I'm in no doubt about my vote tomorrow.Niallnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-5218652296145388072014-09-18T01:50:51.742+01:002014-09-18T01:50:51.742+01:00(That last was to Stickers, of course.)(That last was to Stickers, of course.)Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-57709875274865630942014-09-18T01:50:16.587+01:002014-09-18T01:50:16.587+01:00Just what I was about to say.
I've felt this ...Just what I was about to say.<br /><br />I've felt this for a long time, but my head kept saying, caution, look at the polls, worry. In spite of that my heart kept whispering, Scotland will win.<br /><br />Tonight I know it. The crowds in the town squares know it. The voters feel it. Andy Murray feels it too (well he's come out for Yes anyway). This is our moment in history. We can't lose.Rolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17849975010197698907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-28236533164015689902014-09-18T01:50:10.591+01:002014-09-18T01:50:10.591+01:00Looks like Andy Murray was a 'Shy Yes'. He...Looks like Andy Murray was a 'Shy Yes'. He has tweeted supportively!<br /><br /><br />https://twitter.com/andy_murray/status/512392618077323264Niallnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-48325954788506113312014-09-18T01:42:38.508+01:002014-09-18T01:42:38.508+01:00Forget the polls. This feels like a Yes win. It wi...Forget the polls. This feels like a Yes win. It will be a Yes win. Stickersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-30868723339441649462014-09-18T01:18:55.752+01:002014-09-18T01:18:55.752+01:00Political Racism? Stormfront Lite says it's t... Political Racism? Stormfront Lite says it's too close to call?<br /><br /> They've changed their treasured hopes of Scotland getting the dockside hooker treatment. 80/20 was one of the more sensible statements from that gang of UKIP tosswanks!<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-47725671485341098862014-09-18T01:14:50.289+01:002014-09-18T01:14:50.289+01:00A note of appreciation for the core contributors t...A note of appreciation for the core contributors to this blog. Living on the isle of lewis, I don't know you, you don't know me, but you've become my pals over the last few months.<br /><br />64 years old and for most of them have pined to live in a full democracy. It finally is about to happen. The newly registered, combined with pollsters' lack of previous identical events to formulate reliable modelling on, makes anything between 50-54% Y entirely feasible. <br />If my reading of the main protagonists' body language - I've watched an obscene quantity of TV this last 48 hours - is saying anything to me, it is that it is the "underdogs" are the ones who are clearly showing the confidence signals. <br />I am optimistic that history is about to be made. Even if folk like Neil Oliver, on News night tonight, appear to greet such a prospect with a sour face. Nicola Sturgeon was magnificent in her speech in Perth tonight. Better than the FM, in fact. At moments, the emotion was very visible. She deserves a long lie this weekend. She has sure earned it. AS finished with "Let's do this now." It really is do-able - tomorrow.airdforce1noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-57620326710199835872014-09-18T01:04:10.775+01:002014-09-18T01:04:10.775+01:00@James, you may find this interesting;
http://blo...@James, you may find this interesting;<br /><br />http://blog.majesticseo.com/research/scottish-election-poll/Georgenoreply@blogger.com